RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of animal occurrence in time and space are crucial for informing and implementing science-based management strategies for threatened species. METHODS: We compiled known, available satellite tracking data for pygmy blue whales in the Eastern Indian Ocean (n = 38), applied movement models to define low (foraging and reproduction) and high (migratory) move persistence underlying location estimates and matched these with environmental data. We then used machine learning models to identify the relationship between whale occurrence and environment, and predict foraging and migration habitat suitability in Australia and Southeast Asia. RESULTS: Our model predictions were validated by producing spatially varying accuracy metrics. We identified the shelf off the Bonney Coast, Great Australian Bight, and southern Western Australia as well as the slope off the Western Australian coast as suitable habitat for migration, with predicted foraging/reproduction suitable habitat in Southeast Asia region occurring on slope and in deep ocean waters. Suitable foraging habitat occurred primarily on slope and shelf break throughout most of Australia, with use of the continental shelf also occurring, predominanly in South West and Southern Australia. Depth of the water column (bathymetry) was consistently a top predictor of suitable habitat for most regions, however, dynamic environmental variables (sea surface temperature, surface height anomaly) influenced the probability of whale occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate suitable habitat is related to dynamic, localised oceanic processes that may occur at fine temporal scales or seasonally. An increase in the sample size of tagged whales is required to move towards developing more dynamic distribution models at seasonal and monthly temporal scales. Our validation metrics also indicated areas where further data collection is needed to improve model accuracy. This is of particular importance for pygmy blue whale management, since threats (e.g., shipping, underwater noise and artificial structures) from the offshore energy and shipping industries will persist or may increase with the onset of an offshore renewable energy sector in Australia.
RESUMO
Despite being identified as a driver of mobile predator aggregations (hotspots) in both marine and terrestrial environments, topographic complexity has long remained a challenging concept for scientists to visualise and a difficult parameter to estimate. It is only with the advent of high-speed computers and the recent popularisation of geographical information systems (GIS) that terrain attributes have begun to be quantitatively measured in three-dimensional space and related to wildlife dynamics, making the well-established field of geomorphometry (or 'digital terrain modelling') a discipline of growing appeal to biologists. Although a diverse array of numerical metrics is now available to describe the shape, geometry and physical properties of natural habitats, few of these are known to, or adequately used by, ecologists. In this review, we examine the nature and usage of 56 geomorphometrics extracted from the ecological modelling literature over a period of 32 years (1979-2011). We show that, in studies of mobile predators, numerous topographic variables have largely been overlooked in favour of single basic metrics that do not, on their own, fully capture the complexity of continuous landscapes. Based on a simulation approach, we assess the redundancy and correlation structure of these metrics and demonstrate that a majority are highly collinear. We highlight a suite of 7-8 complementary metrics which best explain topographic patterns across a bathymetric grid of the west Australian seafloor, and contend that field and analytical protocols should prioritise variables of these types, particularly when the responses of predator populations to physical habitat features are of interest. We suggest that prominent structures such as canyons, seamounts or mountain chains can serve as useful proxies for predator hotspots, especially in remote locations where access to high-resolution biological data is often limited.