Global Epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease and the Importation Risk into China: An Assessment Based on the Risk Matrix Method.

Objective: To analyze the global epidemic status of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) and assess the importation risk into China. Methods: Data from World Health Organization reports were used. We described the global epidemic status of EVD from 1976-2021, and assessed and ranked the importation risk of EVD from the disease-outbreaking countries into China using the risk matrix and Borda count methods, respectively. Results: From 1976-2021, EVD mainly occurred in western and central Africa, with the highest cumulative number of cases (14,124 cases) in Sierra Leone, and the highest cumulative fatality rate (85%) in the Congo. Outbreaks of EVD have occurred in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea since 2018. The importation risk into China varies across countries with outbreaks of disease. The Democratic Republic of the Congo had an extremely high risk (23 Borda points), followed by Guinea and Liberia. Countries with a moderate importation risk were Nigeria, Uganda, Congo, Sierra Leone, Mali, and Gabon, while countries with a low importation risk included Sudan, Senegal, and Co^te d'Ivoire. Conclusion: China is under the risk of EVD importation with the globalization and severe epidemic status of EVD. Key attention need to be paid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, and Liberia. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and prepare in advance for importation risk in China.

Global trends and regional differences in incidence and mortality of cardiovascular disease, 1990-2019: findings from 2019 global burden of disease study.

AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and is linked with a regional economic burden. We analysed and compared global trends as well as regional and sociodemographic differences in CVD incidence and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We obtained data to annual incident cases, deaths, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of CVD during 1990-2019 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. To quantify the temporal trends, we calculated changes in the incident cases and deaths as well as the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of age-standardized rates. Globally, CVD incident cases increased by 77.12% from 31.31 million in 1990 to 55.45 million in 2019; deaths rose by 53.81% from 12.07 million in 1990 to 18.56 million in 2019. The overall ASIR [EAPC, -0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI), -0.59 to -0.53] and ASMR (EAPC, -1.46; 95%CI, -1.51 to -1.40) decreased in this period. Against the global trend of ASIR falling, an increasing trend was found in Uzbekistan (EAPC, 1.24; 95%CI, 0.97-1.50), Tajikistan (EAPC, 0.49; 95%CI, 0.47-0.52), and Zimbabwe (EAPC, 0.42; 95%CI, 0.33-0.50). The number of CVD incident cases increased remarkably in low (108.3%), low-middle (114.81%), and middle (117.85%) sociodemographic index regions in 1990-2019. CONCLUSION: Despite the increased number of CVD cases and deaths after adjusting for changes in population age, we observed a consistent decrease in age-standardized incidence and mortality in most countries. However, specific regions-especially low to middle SDI regions-present worrying increases in CVD cases and deaths.

This study analysed the global landscape, long-term trends, and national and regional differences in CVD incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. The absolute number of CVD incident cases and deaths remains an increasing worldwide­especially in low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions­in the years 1990­2019. CVD burden attributable to incidence and mortality are rising globally, but the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates are declining when considering the population's aging.