District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Evaluating the effectiveness of opportunistic eye screening model for people with diabetes attending diabetes clinic at Mnazi Mmoja Hospital, Zanzibar.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and its related microvascular complications like Diabetic retinopathy are showing an alarming rise in developing countries like Zanzibar. Objective of the present study is to evaluate the impact of integrating eye screening for all subjects attending the diabetes clinic at Mnazi Mmoja Hospital in Zanzibar and to estimate the prevalence of visual impairment and diabetic retinopathy among the subjects. METHODS: This is a cross sectional study involving 356 randomly selected patients who had attended the diabetes clinic between July and August 2012. All subjects underwent comprehensive eye examination including fundus evaluation after dilatation by a cataract surgeon and an ophthalmologist, independently. Data was collected using the designated questionnaire and analysed using the SPSS software. Blindness and visual impairment was defined as presenting VA <3/60 and <6/18 to 6/60 in the better eye respectively and DR was graded using the International classification of Diabetic Retinopathy severity grading scale. RESULTS: A total of 356/967 subjects were recruited in a duration of 2 months; 176 (49.4%) were male and the mean age was 52.21 (SD 15.3). Targeted eye screening of diabetics showed that 231/356 (65%) of the subjects had eye problems, including potentially blinding conditions that required immediate intervention in contrast to the existing self reported referral where only 10% of an average of 200 diabetics underwent eye checkup in a year. The prevalence of visual impairment was 20.2%; 95% CI: 16.4-24.7 and blindness in 9.3%; 95% CI: 6.7 -12.7. The prevalence of DR was 28.3% and sight-threatening DR was reported in 9%. Among the DR cases, 30% had sight threatening DR including 28% macular edema, 2% severe NPDR and PDR. Multivariate analysis showed a higher risk for any DR in older subjects >50 years (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.14 - 4.25) and in females (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.07 - 3.44). CONCLUSION: Opportunistic DR screening model achieved higher yield of identification of visual impairment and DR compared to the yield of 10% of existing self reported Diabetic eye screening model at Zanzibar. Integration of eye screening at diabetes clinics helps in early identification and provision of appropriate treatment for reducing blindness due to diabetes.

Enabling targeted mass drug administration for schistosomiasis in north-western Tanzania: Exploring the use of geostatistical modeling to inform planning at sub-district level.

INTRODUCTION: Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease in Tanzania affecting over 50% of the population. Current control strategies involve mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns at the district level, which have led to problems of over- and under-treatment in different areas. WHO guidelines have called for more targeted MDA to circumvent these problems, however a scarcity of prevalence data inhibits decision makers from prioritizing sub-district areas for MDA. This study demonstrated how geostatistics can be used to inform planning for targeted MDA. METHODS: Geostatistical sub-district (ward-level) prevalence estimates were generated through combining a zero-inflated poisson model and kriging approach (regression kriging). To make predictions, the model used prevalence survey data collected in 2021 of 17,400 school children in six regions of Tanzania, along with several open source ecological and socio-demographic variables with known associations with schistosomiasis. RESULTS: The model results show that regression kriging can be used to effectively predict the ward level parasite prevalence of the two species of Schistosoma endemic to the study area. Kriging was found to further improve the regression model fit, with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.51 and 0.32 for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis, respectively. Targeted treatment based on model predictions would represent a shift in treatment away from 193 wards estimated to be over-treated to 149 wards that would have been omitted from the district level MDA. CONCLUSIONS: Geostatistical models can help to support NTD program efficiency and reduce disease transmission by facilitating WHO recommended targeted MDA treatment through provision of prevalence estimates where data is scarce.

Acceptability and feasibility of tests for infection, serological testing, and photography to define need for interventions against trachoma.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma causes blindness due to repeated conjunctival infection by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). Transmission intensity is estimated, for programmatic decision-making, by prevalence of the clinical sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years. Research into complementary indicators to field-graded TF includes work on conjunctival photography, tests for ocular Ct infection, and serology. The perceived acceptability and feasibility of these indicators among a variety of stakeholders is unknown. METHODOLOGY: Focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with public health practitioners in Tanzania were conducted. FGDs explored themes including participants' experience with, and thoughts about, different diagnostic approaches. The framework method for content analysis was used. IDIs yielded lists of perceived strengths of, and barriers to, implementation for programmatic use of each indicator. These were used to form an online quantitative survey on complementary indicators distributed to global stakeholders via meetings, mailing lists, and social media posts. RESULTS: Sixteen FGDs and 11 IDIs were conducted in October-November 2022. In general, all proposed sample methods were deemed acceptable by community members. Common themes included not wanting undue discomfort and a preference for tests perceived as accurate. Health workers noted the importance of community education for some sample types. The online survey was conducted in April-May 2023 with 98 starting the questionnaire and 81 completing it. Regarding barriers to implementing diagnostics, the highest agreement items related to feasibility, rather than acceptability. No evidence of significant differences was found in responses pertaining to community acceptability based on participant characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: All of the indicators included were generally deemed acceptable by all stakeholders in Tanzania, although community education around the benefits and risks of different sample types, as well as addressing issues around feasibility, will be key to successful, sustainable integration of these indicators into trachoma programs.

Accuracy, acceptability and feasibility of photography for use in trachoma surveys: a mixed methods study in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Photography could be used to train individuals to diagnose trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) as trachoma prevalence decreases and to ensure accurate field TF grading in trachoma prevalence surveys. We compared photograph and field TF grading and determined the acceptability and feasibility of eyelid photography to community members and trachoma survey trainers. METHODS: A total of 100 children ages 1-9 y were examined for TF in two Maasai villages in Tanzania. Two images of the right everted superior tarsal conjunctiva of each child were taken with a smartphone and a digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera. Two graders independently graded all photos. Focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with community members and Tropical Data trainers. RESULTS: Of 391 photos, one-fifth were discarded as ungradable. Compared with field grading, photo grading consistently underdiagnosed TF. Compared with field grading, DSLR photo grading resulted in a higher prevalence and sensitivity than smartphone photo grading. FGDs indicated that communities and trainers found photography acceptable and preferred smartphones to DSLR in terms of practicalities, but image quality was of paramount importance for trainers. CONCLUSIONS: Photography is acceptable and feasible, but further work is needed to ensure high-quality images that enable accurate and consistent grading before being routinely implemented in trachoma surveys.

'Follow the cattle': a joint cross-border trachoma MDA perspective.

Trachoma, a disease caused by Chlamydia trachomatis, is the leading infectious cause of blindness. To fight it, endemic East African countries adopted the World Health Organization's SAFE Strategy, targeting surgery, antibiotics through mass drug administration (MDA), facial cleanliness and environmental improvement. Trachoma persists among nomadic communities along the Kenya-Uganda and Kenya-Tanzania borders. To address this, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda launched synchronized MDA campaigns, simultaneously treating populations across borders. Successes included joint planning, community involvement and intergovernmental cooperation, although challenges remained in resourcing MDA cross-border focal points and in addressing coverage and funding. Novel strategies like synchronized joint cross-border MDA with community engagement are vital for sustainable trachoma elimination in these nomadic settings.

Understanding the Role of Gender in Trichiasis Case Finding in Tanzania.

PURPOSE: Despite the importance of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) case-finding activities in national trachoma elimination campaigns, the scientific literature on the determinants of good outcomes - finding and managing all TT cases - is still sparse. In Tanzania, we studied differences in case finding activities and outcomes between male and female case finders. METHODS: This case study was conducted in two districts in Tanzania in 2021-2022. Quantitative data were extracted from case finder forms and outreach registers, and qualitative data were collected through direct observation, interviews, and focus group discussions. RESULTS: Across both districts, more males were trained as case finders (68%). Productivity differences were minor, not statistically significant, between male and female case finders regarding the number of households visited and the number of adults examined. Whether identified by a male or female case finder, similar proportions of men and women suspected to have TT were subsequently managed. There is evidence that suggests that female case finders were more active in supporting suspected and confirmed TT cases to access follow-up services. CONCLUSION: The findings do not suggest that gender balance in the recruitment of TT case finders would have led to better TT campaign outcomes in the study districts. Programmes may benefit from integrating gender considerations in the design and implementation of case finding activities - e.g. in monitoring gender differences among case finders and the relationship with key outcomes. This study also highlights how women with TT face greater barriers to care.

Explaining the continuing high prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis unknown to the health system in evaluation units: a mixed methods explanatory study in four trachoma-endemic countries.

BACKGROUND: We explored reasons for continuing higher-than-anticipated prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system in population-based prevalence surveys in evaluation units where full geographical coverage of TT case finding was reported. METHODS: A mixed-methods study in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania was conducted. We compared data from clinical examination, campaign documentation and interviews with original trachoma impact survey (TIS) results. RESULTS: Of 169 TT cases identified by TIS teams, 130 (77%) were examined in this study. Of those, 90 (69%) were a match (both TIS and study teams agreed on TT classification) and 40 (31%) were a mismatch. Of the 40 mismatches, 22 (55%) were identified as unknown to the health system by the study team but as known to the health system by the TIS team; 12 (30%) were identified as not having TT by the study team but as having TT by the TIS team; and six (15%) were identified as unknown to the health system in the TIS team but as known to the health system by the study team based on documentation reviewed. CONCLUSIONS: Incorrectly reported geographical coverage of case-finding activities, and discrepancies in TT status between TIS results and more detailed assessments, are the key reasons identified for continuing high TT prevalence.

Impact of personal protective equipment on the clarity of vision among trachoma survey graders and trichiasis surgeons in the context of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the use of personal protective equipment for those involved in trachoma survey grading and trichiasis surgery. We sought to determine which configuration of a face shield would be less likely to impact grading accuracy and ability to conduct trichiasis surgery. The research also included assessment of comfort, ease of cleaning and robustness. METHODS: There were three research phases. In phase 1, assessment of four potential face shield configurations was undertaken with principal trachoma graders and trichiasis surgeon trainers to decide which two options should undergo further testing. In phase 2, clarity of vision and comfort (in a classroom environment) of the two configurations were assessed compared with no face shield (control), while grading trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF). The second phase also included the assessment of impact of the configurations while performing trichiasis surgery using a training model. In phase 3, face shield ease of use was evaluated during routine surgical programmes. RESULTS: In phase 2, 124 trachoma graders and 28 trichiasis surgeons evaluated the 2 face shield configurations selected in phase 1. TF agreement was high (kappa=0.83 and 0.82) for both configurations compared with not wearing a face shield. Comfort was reported as good by 51% and 32% of graders using the two configurations. Trichiasis skill scores were similar for both configurations. CONCLUSION: The face shield configuration that includes a cut-out for mounting the 2.5× magnifying loupes does not appear to impact the ability or comfort of trachoma graders or trichiasis surgeons to carry out their work.

Exploring water, sanitation, and hygiene coverage targets for reaching and sustaining trachoma elimination: G-computation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness. To reduce transmission, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) improvements are promoted through a comprehensive public health strategy. Evidence supporting the role of WaSH in trachoma elimination is mixed and it remains unknown what WaSH coverages are needed to effectively reduce transmission. METHODS/FINDINGS: We used g-computation to estimate the impact on the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) when hypothetical WaSH interventions raised the minimum coverages from 5% to 100% for "nearby" face-washing water (<30 minutes roundtrip collection time) and adult latrine use in an evaluation unit (EU). For each scenario, we estimated the generalized prevalence difference as the TF1-9 prevalence under the intervention scenarios minus the observed prevalence. Data from 574 cross-sectional surveys conducted in 16 African and Eastern Mediterranean countries were included. Surveys were conducted from 2015-2019 with support from the Global Trachoma Mapping Project and Tropical Data. When modeling interventions among EUs that had not yet met the TF1-9 elimination target, increasing nearby face-washing water and latrine use coverages above 30% was generally associated with consistent decreases in TF1-9. For nearby face-washing water, we estimated a ≥25% decrease in TF1-9 at 65% coverage, with a plateau upon reaching 85% coverage. For latrine use, the estimated decrease in TF1-9 accelerated from 80% coverage upward, with a ≥25% decrease in TF1-9 by 85% coverage. Among EUs that had previously met the elimination target, results were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support Sustainable Development Goal 6 and provide insight into potential WaSH-related coverage targets for trachoma elimination. Targets can be tested in future trials to improve evidence-based WaSH guidance for trachoma.

Precision and geographical prevalence mapping of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis among school-aged children in selected districts of north-western Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The identification and mapping of at-risk populations at a lower administrative level than the district are prerequisites for the planning, resource allocation and design of impactful control intervention measures. Thus, the objective of the current study was to conduct sub-district precision mapping of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) and schistosomiasis in 29 districts of north-western Tanzania using the current recommended World Health Organization criteria. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 145 schools between March and May 2021. A urine filtration technique was used for the quantification of Schistosoma haematobium eggs, whereas quantification of Schistosoma mansoni and STH eggs was done using the Kato-Katz technique. Microhaematuria was examined using a urine dipstick. RESULTS: The overall prevalences of any STH and schistosome infections were 9.3% [95% confidence interval (95%CI) 8.6-9.9] and 14.6% (95%CI 13.9-15.4), respectively. The overall prevalence of S. mansoni was 8.7% (95%CI 8.1-9.3), and 36.4%, 41.6%, and 21.9% of the children had low, moderate, and heavy infections, respectively. The overall prevalence of S. haematobium was 6.1% (95%CI 5.5-6.5), and 71.7% and 28.3% of the infected children had light and heavy intensity infections, respectively. The prevalence of microhaematuria was 7.3% (95%CI 6.7-7.8), with males having the highest prevalence (8.4%, P < 0.001). The prevalences of Trichuris trichiura, Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm were, respectively, 1.3% (95%CI 0.1-1.5), 2.9% (95%CI 2.5-3.3) and 6.2% (95%CI 5.7-6.7). Most of the children infected with STH had light to moderate intensities of infection. The overall prevalence of co-infection with STH and schistosomiasis was 19.1%. The prevalence of schistosomiasis (P < 00.1) and STH (P < 0.001) varied significantly between schools and sub-districts. Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium were observed in 60 and 71 schools, respectively, whereas any STH was observed in 49 schools. In schools where schistosomiasis was observed, prevalence was < 10% in 90.8% of them, and ranged from ≥ 10% to < 50% in the other 9.2%. In schools where any STH was observed, the prevalence was < 10% in 87.7% of them. CONCLUSIONS: The data reported here show that schistosomiasis and STH are widely distributed around Lake Victoria. In most of the schools where schistosomiasis and STH occurred the transmission thresholds were low. These data are important and need to be taken into consideration when decisions are made on the implementation of the next round of mass chemotherapies for schistosomiasis and STH in Tanzania.

Evaluating Precision of a Trachomatous Trichiasis (TT) Super Survey with Modulating Sample Sizes in Tanzania.

As trachoma programs move towards eliminating trachoma as a public health problem, the number of surveys necessary to evaluate the status of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) increases. Currently, the World Health Organization endorses a district-level population-based prevalence survey for trachoma that involves a two-stage cluster design. We explored the validity of implementing this survey design in larger geographic areas to gain cost efficiencies. We evaluated the change in precision due to combining geographically contiguous and homogenous districts into single evaluation units (EUs) and modulating the sample size by running simulations on existing datasets. Preliminary findings from two opportunities in Tanzania show variability in the appropriateness in conducting this survey across larger geographies. These preliminary findings stress the importance of determining what is meant by homogeneity in terms of TT before combining multiple districts into a single EU.

Productivity, efficiency and gender equity of community mobilisation approaches in trichiasis campaigns: analysis of programmatic data from seven sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Achieving elimination of trachoma as a public health problem in trichiasis-endemic districts requires a systematic approach to trichiasis case finding and outreach. METHODS: Programme monitoring data from seven countries for 2017-2019 were used to explore the efficiency of different community mobilisation approaches and uptake of trichiasis surgical services. RESULTS: Three countries (Ethiopia, Kenya and Mozambique) using broad-based community mobilisation strategies had large numbers of people presenting at outreach but only 2.9% of them had trichiasis, while in four countries (Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia) using house-to-house case finding, 37.5% of outreach attendees had trichiasis. Countries using house-to-house case finding have proportionally more women attending outreach compared with countries using broad-based mobilisation. Among trichiasis cases offered surgery 86% accepted, which was similar for men and women. CONCLUSIONS: In these settings, house-to-house case finding appears to be a more effective and efficient approach to ensure that trichiasis cases, particularly in women, obtain access to surgical services.

Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries.

BACKGROUND: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem was targeted for 2020. We reviewed progress towards the elimination of active trachoma by country and geographical group. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of national survey and implementation data, all countries ever known to be endemic for trachoma that had either implemented at least one trachoma impact survey shown in the publicly available Trachoma Atlas, or are in Africa were invited to participate in this study. Scale-up was described according to the number of known endemic implementation units and mass drug administration implementation over time. The prevalence of active trachoma-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) from baseline, impact, and surveillance surveys was categorised and used to show programme progress towards reaching the elimination threshold (TF1-9 <5%) using dot maps, spaghetti plots, and boxplots. FINDINGS: We included data until Nov 10, 2021, for 38 countries, representing 2097 ever-endemic implementation units. Of these, 1923 (91·7%) have had mass drug administration. Of 1731 implementation units with a trachoma impact survey, the prevalence of TF1-9 had reduced by at least 50% in 1465 (84·6%) implementation units and 1182 (56·4%) of 2097 ever-endemic implementation units had reached the elimination threshold. 2 years after reaching a TF1-9 prevalence below 5%, most implementation units sustained this target; however, 58 (56·3%) of 103 implementation units in Ethiopia showed recrudescence. INTERPRETATION: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2020 was not possible, but this finding masks the great progress achieved. Implementation units in high baseline categories and recrudescent TF1-9 might prolong the attainment of elimination of active trachoma. Elimination is delayed but, with an understanding of the patterns and timelines to reaching elimination targets and a commitment toward meeting future targets, global elimination can still be achieved by 2030. FUNDING: None.

Evaluation of photography using head-mounted display technology (ICAPS) for district Trachoma surveys.

BACKGROUND: As the prevalence of trachoma declines worldwide, it is becoming increasingly expensive and challenging to standardize graders in the field for surveys to document elimination. Photography of the tarsal conjunctiva and remote interpretation may help alleviate these challenges. The purpose of this study was to develop, and field test an Image Capture and Processing System (ICAPS) to acquire hands-free images of the tarsal conjunctiva for upload to a virtual reading center for remote grading. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This observational study was conducted during a district-level prevalence survey for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in Chamwino, Tanzania. The ICAPS was developed using a Samsung Galaxy S8 smartphone, a Samsung Gear VR headset, a foot pedal trigger and customized software allowing for hands-free photography. After a one-day training course, three trachoma graders used the ICAPS to collect images from 1305 children ages 1-9 years, which were expert-graded remotely for comparison with field grades. In our experience, the ICAPS was successful at scanning and assigning barcodes to images, focusing on the everted eyelid with adequate examiner hand visualization, and capturing images with sufficient detail to grade TF. The percentage of children with TF by photos and by field grade was 5%. Agreement between grading of the images compared to the field grades at the child level was kappa = 0.53 (95%CI = 0.40-0.66). There were ungradable images for at least one eye in 199 children (9.1%), with more occurring in children ages 1-3 (18.5%) than older children ages 4-9 (4.2%) (χ2 = 145.3, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The prototype ICAPS device was robust, able to image 1305 children in a district level survey and transmit images from rural Tanzania to an online grading platform. More work is needed to improve the percentage of ungradable images and to better understand the causes of disagreement between field and photo grading.

Prevalence of Visual Impairment and Coverage of Cataract Surgical Services: Associations with Sex, Disability, and Economic Status in Five Diverse Sites.

PURPOSE: Prevalence of visual impairment (VI) and access to services can vary significantly across and between different population groups. With renewed focus on universal health coverage and leaving no one behind, it is important to understand factors driving inequitable eye health. This paper presents results from five population-based surveys where prevalence of VI and cataract surgical coverage (CSC) were measured and examined for differences by sex, economic-status, and disability. METHODS: Rapid assessments of avoidable blindness took place in four rural sites: Kalahandi, Jhabua and Sitapur in India; and Singida, Tanzania; and one urban site: Lahore, Pakistan. In addition, the Equity Tool was used to measure economic status and the Washington Group Short Set was used to measure disability. Prevalence of VI and CSC were calculated and associations with sex, disability, and relative wealth examined. RESULTS: Prevalence of VI varied from 1.9% in Lahore to 15.0% in Kalahandi. CSC varied from 39.1% in Singida to 84.0% in Lahore. Additional disability was associated with greater levels of VI in all sites and lower CSC in Singida. Being female was associated with higher VI in Kalahandi, Lahore and Singida and lower CSC in Lahore and Singida. Being poorer was associated with higher VI in Singida and lower CSC in Singida and Sitapur. CONCLUSION: Relationships between VI and relative wealth, sex, and disability are complex and variable. Although certain characteristics may be associated with lower coverage or worse outcomes, they cannot be generalized and local data are vital to tailor services to achieve good coverage.

The Importance of Failure: How Doing Impact Surveys That Fail Saves Trachoma Programs Money.

Trachoma programs use annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) in evaluation units (EUs) that generally encompass 100,000-250,000 people. After one, three, or five MDA rounds, programs undertake impact surveys. Where impact survey prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1- to 9-year-olds is ≥ 5%, ≥ 1 additional MDA rounds are recommended before resurvey. Impact survey costs, and the proportion of impact surveys returning TF prevalence ≥ 5% (the failure rate or, less pejoratively, the MDA continuation rate), therefore influence the cost of eliminating trachoma. We modeled, for illustrative EU sizes, the financial cost of undertaking MDA with and without conducting impact surveys. As an example, we retrospectively assessed how conducting impact surveys affected costs in the United Republic of Tanzania for 2017-2018. For EUs containing 100,000 people, the median (interquartile range) cost of continuing MDA without doing impact surveys is USD 28,957 (17,581-36,197) per EU per year, whereas continuing MDA solely where indicated by impact survey results costs USD 17,564 (12,158-21,694). If the mean EU population is 100,000, then continuing MDA without impact surveys becomes advantageous in financial cost terms only when the continuation rate exceeds 71%. For the United Republic of Tanzania in 2017-2018, doing impact surveys saved enough money to provide MDA for > 1,000,000 people. Although trachoma impact surveys have a nontrivial cost, they generally save money, providing EUs have > 50,000 inhabitants, the continuation rate is not excessive, and they generate reliable data. If all EUs pass their impact surveys, then we have waited too long to do them.

The global burden of trichiasis in 2016.

BACKGROUND: Trichiasis is present when one or more eyelashes touches the eye. Uncorrected, it can cause blindness. Accurate estimates of numbers affected, and their geographical distribution, help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained district-level trichiasis prevalence estimates in adults for 44 endemic and previously-endemic countries. We used (1) the most recent data for a district, if more than one estimate was available; (2) age- and sex-standardized corrections of historic estimates, where raw data were available; (3) historic estimates adjusted using a mean adjustment factor for districts where raw data were unavailable; and (4) expert assessment of available data for districts for which no prevalence estimates were available. FINDINGS: Internally age- and sex-standardized data represented 1,355 districts and contributed 662 thousand cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 324 thousand-1.1 million) to the global total. Age- and sex-standardized district-level prevalence estimates differed from raw estimates by a mean factor of 0.45 (range 0.03-2.28). Previously non- stratified estimates for 398 districts, adjusted by ×0.45, contributed a further 411 thousand cases (95% CI 283-557 thousand). Eight countries retained previous estimates, contributing 848 thousand cases (95% CI 225 thousand-1.7 million). New expert assessments in 14 countries contributed 862 thousand cases (95% CI 228 thousand-1.7 million). The global trichiasis burden in 2016 was 2.8 million cases (95% CI 1.1-5.2 million). INTERPRETATION: The 2016 estimate is lower than previous estimates, probably due to more and better data; scale-up of trichiasis management services; and reductions in incidence due to lower active trachoma prevalence.

Baseline Trachoma Surveys in Kaskazini A and Micheweni Districts of Zanzibar: Results of Two Population-Based Prevalence Surveys Conducted with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

PURPOSE: Based on health care records and trachoma rapid assessments, trachoma was suspected to be endemic in Kaskazini A and Micheweni districts of Zanzibar. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in each of those districts. METHODS: The survey was undertaken in Kaskazini A and Micheweni districts on Unguja and Pemba Islands, respectively. A multi-stage cluster random sampling design was applied, whereby 25 census enumeration areas (clusters) and 30 households per cluster were included. Consenting eligible participants (children aged 1-9 years and people aged 15 years and older) were examined for trachoma using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. RESULTS: A total of 1673 households were surveyed and 6407 participants (98.0% of those enumerated) were examined for trachoma. Examinees included a total of 2825 children aged 1-9 years and 3582 people aged 15 years and older. TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, CI, 2.7-4.1%) in Kazkazini A and 11.4% (95% CI 6.6-16.5%) in Micheweni. Among people aged 15 years and older, TT prevalence was 0.01% (95% CI 0.00-0.04%) in Kazkazini A and 0.21% (95% CI 0.08-0.39%) in Micheweni. CONCLUSION: Trachoma is a public health problem in Micheweni district, where implementation of all four components of the SAFE strategy (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement), including mass drug administration with azithromycin, is required. These findings will facilitate planning for trachoma elimination.

Progress of Trachoma Mapping in Mainland Tanzania: Results of Baseline Surveys from 2012 to 2014.

PURPOSE: Following surveys in 2004-2006 in 50 high-risk districts of mainland Tanzania, trachoma was still suspected to be widespread elsewhere. We report on baseline surveys undertaken from 2012 to 2014. METHODS: A total of 31 districts were surveyed. In 2012 and 2013, 12 at-risk districts were selected based on proximity to known trachoma endemic districts, while in 2014, trachoma rapid assessments were undertaken, and 19 of 55 districts prioritized for baseline surveys. A multi-stage cluster random sampling methodology was applied whereby 20 villages (clusters) and 36 households per cluster were surveyed. Eligible participants, children aged 1-9 years and people aged 15 years and older, were examined for trachoma using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. RESULTS: A total of 23,171 households were surveyed and 104,959 participants (92.3% of those enumerated) examined for trachoma signs. A total of 44,511 children aged 1-9 years and 65,255 people aged 15 years and older were examined for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trichiasis, respectively. Prevalence of TF varied by district, ranging from 0.0% (95% confidence interval, CI 0.0-0.1%) in Mbinga to 11.8% (95% CI 6.8-16.5%) in Chunya. Trichiasis prevalence was lowest in Urambo (0.03%, 95% CI 0.00-0.24%) and highest in Kibaha (1.08%, 95% CI 0.74-1.43%). CONCLUSION: Only three districts qualified for mass drug administration with azithromycin. Trichiasis is still a public health problem in many districts, thus community-based trichiasis surgery should be considered to prevent blindness due to trachoma. These findings will facilitate achievement of trachoma elimination objectives.