A multi-centre, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial to assess the efficacy and safety of eurythmy therapy and tai chi in comparison with standard care in chronically ill elderly patients with increased risk of falling (ENTAiER): a trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: In elderly poeple, multimorbidity and polypharmacy increase while sensory, motor and cognitive functions decrease. Falls occur in 30% of people aged 65 years and older at least once per year, with injuries at 10-20%. Reducing falls and enhancing physical, emotional and cognitive capacities are essential for healthy aging despite chronic disease. Eurythmy therapy (EYT) and Tai Chi train balance, mobility and concentrative and sensory capacities. METHODS: In eight trial sites (academic or community hospitals), 550 outpatients aged 65 years and older with chronic disease and increased risk of falling (history of imbalance, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score ≤ 49) will be randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive either EYT or Tai Chi (each provided in one-hour group sessions, twice, later once per week plus practice at home, for over 24 weeks) added to standard care or standard care alone. Standard care includes a detailed written recommendation on fall prevention and the visit of a primary care doctor. Seniors living a reclusive life or economically disadvantaged elderly will be particularly addressed. A motivation and communication concept supports the trial participants' compliance with trial procedures and practicing. Public and patient representatives are involved in the planning and conduction of the trial. Falls will be documented daily in a diary by the participants. These falls as well as injuries and complications will be ascertained during monthly phone visits. The falls efficacy scale, BBS, cognition (MoCA), Mood (GDS-15), quality of life (SF12), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), use of medical and non-medical services (FIMA) and adherence will be assessed at months 3, 6, and 12 and inner correspondence with practices (ICPH) at month 6. The trial is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF 01GL1805). DISCUSSION: This study will determine whether EYT and Tai Chi reduce falls, injurious falls, fear of falling and healthcare utilisation and improve mobility, cognition, mood, quality of life and functional independence. A reduction of fall risk and fear of falling and an improvement of mobility, autonomy, quality of life, mood, and cognition are highly relevant for older people to cope with aging and diseases and to reduce healthcare costs. TRAIL REGISTRATION: www.drks.de. DRKS00016609. Registered 30th July 2019.

Predicting patient outcomes in psychiatric hospitals with routine data: a machine learning approach.

BACKGROUND: A common problem in machine learning applications is availability of data at the point of decision making. The aim of the present study was to use routine data readily available at admission to predict aspects relevant to the organization of psychiatric hospital care. A further aim was to compare the results of a machine learning approach with those obtained through a traditional method and those obtained through a naive baseline classifier. METHODS: The study included consecutively discharged patients between 1st of January 2017 and 31st of December 2018 from nine psychiatric hospitals in Hesse, Germany. We compared the predictive performance achieved by stochastic gradient boosting (GBM) with multiple logistic regression and a naive baseline classifier. We tested the performance of our final models on unseen patients from another calendar year and from different hospitals. RESULTS: The study included 45,388 inpatient episodes. The models' performance, as measured by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, varied strongly between the predicted outcomes, with relatively high performance in the prediction of coercive treatment (area under the curve: 0.83) and 1:1 observations (0.80) and relatively poor performance in the prediction of short length of stay (0.69) and non-response to treatment (0.65). The GBM performed slightly better than logistic regression. Both approaches were substantially better than a naive prediction based solely on basic diagnostic grouping. CONCLUSION: The present study has shown that administrative routine data can be used to predict aspects relevant to the organisation of psychiatric hospital care. Future research should investigate the predictive performance that is necessary to provide effective assistance in clinical practice for the benefit of both staff and patients.

Predictors and impact of early cerebral infarction after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cerebral infarction is a frequent and serious complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). This study aimed to identify independent predictors of the timing of cerebral infarction and clarify its impact on disease course and patients' outcome. METHODS: All consecutive patients with SAH admitted to our institution from January 2005 to December 2012 were analyzed. Serial computed tomography (CT) scans were evaluated for cerebral infarctions. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiological data of patients during hospitalization as well as clinical follow-ups 6 months after SAH were recorded. RESULTS: Of the 632 analyzed patients, 320 (51%) developed cerebral infarction on CT scans. 136 patients (21.5%) with early cerebral infarction (occurring within 3 days after SAH) had a significantly higher risk of unfavorable outcome than patients with late infarction [odds ratio (OR) 2.94; P = 0.008], a higher in-hospital mortality (OR 3.14; P = 0.0002) and poorer clinical outcome after 6 months (OR 0.54; P < 0.0001). The rates of decompressive craniectomy (OR 1.96, P = 0.0265), tracheostomy (OR 1.87, P = 0.0446), the duration of intensive care unit stay and mechanical ventilation were significantly higher in patients with early infarction. In multivariate analysis, Hunt and Hess grades 4 and 5 (OR 2.06, P = 0.008), Fisher grades 3 and 4 (OR 3.99, P = 0.014), sustained elevations of intracranial pressure >20 mmHg (OR 5.95, P < 0.0001) and early vasospasm on diagnostic angiograms (OR 3.01, P = 0.008) were predictors of early cerebral infarction. CONCLUSION: Early cerebral infarction after SAH is associated with severe clinical course and unfavorable outcome and can be reliably predicted by poor initial clinical condition, thick subarachnoid clot, early angiographic vasospasm and sustained elevations of intracranial pressure.

Implementing an intensified antibiotic stewardship programme targeting cephalosporin and fluoroquinolone use in a 200-bed community hospital in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Prescription of third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones has been linked to an increasing incidence of gram-negative bacteria producing extended-spectrum beta-lactamases, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and nosocomial infection with Clostridium difficile. Antibiotic stewardship (ABS) programmes offer evidence-based tools to control antibiotic prescription rates and thereby influence the incidence of nosocomial infection and contain the development of multidrug-resistant bacteria, but there is limited experience with such programmes at community hospitals. METHODS: We implemented an ABS programme at a 200-bed community hospital and aimed at a > 30 % reduction of cephalosporin and fluoroquinolone consumption within 1 year. Pharmacy data were obtained to estimate hospital-wide drug use density expressed in WHO-ATC-defined daily doses (DDD) or hospital-adapted recommended daily doses (RDD) per 1,000 patient days. The effect of the ABS intervention on drug use density was analysed using interrupted time-series analysis for the periods between January 2011 and March 2013 as pre-intervention, and between April 2013 and March 2014 as post-intervention period. The CDI incidence was calculated based on microbiology laboratory data. RESULTS: Cephalosporin use (measured in RDD/1,000 patient days) decreased by 33 %, and fluoroquinolone use decreased by 31 %, respectively. Interrupted time-series analysis confirmed significant changes in the drug use density trends for both cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones after the intervention as well as for total antibiotic use that decreased by 11 % while no significant effect was noted for CDI incidence rates. CONCLUSION: ABS programmes can be effective in community hospitals and may help establish ecologically advantageous antibiotic strategies when needed.

Minimisation of dialysis risk in hospital patients with chronic kidney disease (MinDial): study protocol for a multicentre, stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and advancing kidney insufficiency, followed by specialist care, can decelerate the progression of the disease. However, awareness of the importance and possible consequences of kidney insufficiency is low among doctors and patients. Since kidney insufficiency can be asymptomatic even in higher stages, it is often not even known to those belonging to risk groups. This study aims to clarify whether, for hospitalised patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, a risk-based appointment with a nephrology specialist reduces disease progression. METHODS: The target population of the study is hospitalised CKD patients with an increased risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), more specifically with an ESRD risk of at least 9% in the next 5 years. This risk is estimated by the internationally validated Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). The intervention consists of a specific appointment with a nephrology specialist after the hospital stay, while control patients are discharged from the hospital as usual. Eight medical centres include participants according to a stepped-wedge design, with randomised sequential centre-wise crossover from recruiting patients into the control group to recruitment to the intervention. The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is measured for each patient during the hospital stay and after 12 months within the regular care by the general practitioner. The difference in the change of the eGFR over this period is compared between the intervention and control groups and considered the primary endpoint. DISCUSSION: This study is designed to evaluate the effect of risk-based appointments with nephrology specialists for hospitalised CKD patients with an increased risk of end-stage renal disease. If the intervention is proven to be beneficial, it may be implemented in routine care. Limitations will be examined and discussed. The evaluation will include further endpoints such as non-guideline-compliant medication, economic considerations and interviews with contributing physicians to assess the acceptance and feasibility of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00029691 . Registered on 12 September 2022.

Implementing strategic bundles for infection prevention and management.

Healthcare-associated infections (HAI) are considered to be the most frequent adverse event in healthcare delivery. Active efforts to curb HAI have increased across Europe thanks to the growing emphasis on patient safety and quality of care. Recently, there has been dramatic success in improving the quality of patient care by focusing on the implementation of a group or "bundle" of evidenced-based preventive practices to achieve a better outcome than when implemented individually. The project entitled IMPLEMENT is designed to spread and test knowledge on how to implement strategic bundles for infection prevention and management in a diverse sample of European hospitals. The general goal of this project is to provide evidence on how to decrease the incidence of HAI and to improve antibiotic use under routine conditions.

Correlations between bed occupancy rates and Clostridium difficile infections: a time-series analysis.

A time-series analysis was performed to identify the impact of bed occupancy rates and length of hospital stay on the incidence of Clostridium difficile infections (CDI). Between January 2003 and July 2008, a mean incidence of 0·5 CDI cases/1000 patient days was recorded. Application of a multivariate model (R2=0·50) showed that bed occupancy rates on general wards (P<0·01) and length of stay in intensive care units (ICUs) (P<0·01) influenced the incidence of CDI. Overcrowding on general wards and long periods in ICUs were identified as being positively associated with the incidence of CDI.

Tick-borne encephalitis virus vaccination breakthrough infections in Germany: a retrospective analysis from 2001 to 2018.

OBJECTIVES: There are few data available regarding the clinical course of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) vaccination breakthrough infections. The published studies suggest that vaccination breakthrough infections may have a more severe course than native TBEV infection in unvaccinated individuals-potentially due to antibody-dependent enhancement. Here we report a large analysis of vaccination breakthrough infections. METHODS: This retrospective analysis was based on a national surveillance dataset spanning the years 2001-2018. Variables reflecting disease severity, such as 'CNS symptoms', 'myelitis', 'fatal outcome' and 'hospitalization' were analysed as well as general epidemiological variables. Cases were categorized as 'unvaccinated' or 'ever vaccinated', the latter category including cases with at least one dose of a TBEV vaccine. RESULTS: A total of 6073 notified TBEV infection cases were included in our analysis. Sufficient data on vaccination status were available for 95.1% of patients (5777/6073); of these, 5298 presented with a native infection. A total of (334/5777) cases developed an infection despite having been vaccinated at least once. Comparing unvaccinated patients with those with at least one vaccination, we find an odds ratio (OR) 2.73, (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-9.50) regarding the variable fatal outcome that did not reach statistical significance. Analysing the clinical variables 'CNS symptoms' and 'myelitis', there is no difference between these groups (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.68-1.08; and OR 1.30, 95% CI 0.74-2.27 respectively). Patients who were vaccinated and had an assumed protection at symptom onset (n = 100) had a higher risk for the development of myelitic symptoms (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.01-4.86]) than unvaccinated patients. CONCLUSION: Our findings could neither verify that vaccination breakthrough infections might cause a more severe disease than native infections nor prove a clear antibody-dependent enhancement phenomenon. It remains unclear whether the increased myelitis risk in a subgroup of vaccinated patients is a true effect or confounded.

Myocardial infarction type 1 is frequent in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) treated with extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR).

Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is a last resort treatment option for refractory cardiac arrest performed in specialized centers. Following consensus recommendations, ECPR is mostly offered to younger patients with witnessed collapse but without return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). We report findings from a large single-center registry with 252 all-comers who received ECPR from 2011-2019. It took a median of 52 min to establish stable circulation by ECPR. Eighty-five percent of 112 patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) underwent coronary angiography, revealing myocardial infarction (MI) type 1 with atherothrombotic vessel obstruction in 70 patients (63% of all OHCA patients, 74% of OHCA patients undergoing coronary angiography). Sixty-six percent of 140 patients with intra-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) underwent coronary angiography, which showed MI type 1 in 77 patients (55% of all IHCA patients, 83% of IHCA patients undergoing coronary angiography). These results suggest that MI type 1 is a frequent finding and - most likely - cause of cardiac arrest (CA) in patients without ROSC, especially in OHCA. Hospital survival rates were 30% and 29% in patients with OHCA and IHCA, respectively. According to these findings, rapid coronary angiography may be advisable in patients with OHCA receiving ECPR without obvious non-cardiac cause of arrest, irrespective of electrocardiogram analysis. Almost every third patient treated with ECPR survived to hospital discharge, supporting previous data suggesting that ECPR may be beneficial in CA without ROSC. In conclusion, interventional cardiology is of paramount importance for ECPR programs.

Microeconomic surplus in health care: applied economic theory in health care in four European countries.

INTRODUCTION: In economic theory economic surplus refers to two related quantities: Consumer and producer surplus. Applying this theory to health care "convenience" could be one way how consumer benefits might manifest itself. METHODS: Various areas of economic surplus were identified and subsequently screened and analyzed in Germany, Spain, The Netherlands, and the UK: Cesarean births, emergency room visits (nights or weekends), drug availability after test results, and response surplus. A targeted literature search was being conducted to identify the associated costs. Finally the economic surplus (convenience value) was calculated. RESULTS: The economic surplus for different health care areas was being calculated. The highest economic surplus was obtained for the example of response surplus IVF-treatments in The Netherlands. CONCLUSION: The analyzed examples in this article support the underlying hypothesis for this research: "Value of convenience defined as the consumer surplus in health care can be shown in different health care settings." Again, this hypothesis should be accepted as a starting point in this research area and hence further primary research is strongly recommended in order to fully proof this concept.

Economic consequences of the demography of MRSA patients and the impact of broad-spectrum antimicrobials.

BACKGROUND: Studies have determined the societal impact of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) by modelling its impact on labour supply and productivity. In addition, most of the studies on the topic conclude that the problem of resistance should be counteracted on the macro level by reducing overall antibacterial consumption. OBJECTIVE: Two major questions have been raised in the present work. Firstly, is MRSA impairing labour supply and productivity? Secondly, is it the overall use of antibacterials that may be seen as crucial to the spread of MRSA infections? METHODS: The age distribution of MRSA patients is compared with the age distribution of the entire patient population at a German teaching hospital. In addition, the age distribution of MRSA patients was applied to the age distribution of the German population in the year 2050 in order to identify the effects of the double-ageing process on the spread of MRSA. Furthermore, recent epidemiological studies were reviewed on the impact of overall antibacterial consumption on MRSA infection rates. RESULTS: Based on available data, we show that patients infected or colonized with MRSA are, for the most part, beyond retirement age and thus not responsible for changes in labour supply or productivity. Application of age distribution of MRSA patients to the age distribution of the German population in the year 2050 gives a 24% increase in the number of MRSA cases to a total of 182 778 due to an ageing population. In addition, we show that a 32% reduction in the cost of MRSA to the German healthcare system could be reached if use of fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins was reduced by just 10% and, correspondingly, use of antiseptics for hand disinfection was increased by 10%. CONCLUSIONS: MRSA is a phenomenon that, to a larger degree, affects the elderly population rather than the labour force. When it comes to policy options to counteract MRSA on the macro level, most economic research on the topic is biased in assuming that the overall use of antibacterials is responsible for the spread of MRSA infections.

Bed occupancy rates and hospital-acquired infections--should beds be kept empty?

There is growing evidence that bed occupancy (BO) rates, overcrowding and understaffing influence the spread of hospital-acquired infections (HAIs). In this article, a systematic review of the literature is presented, summarizing the evidence on the adverse effects of high BO rates and overcrowding in hospitals on the incidence of HAIs. A Pubmed database search identified 179 references, of which 44 were considered to be potentially relevant for full-text review. The majority (62.9%) focused on methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus-associated infection or colonization. Only 12 studies were found that provided a statistical analysis of the impact of BO on HAI rates. The median BO rate of the analysed studies was 81.2%. The majority of studies (75%) indicated that BO rates and understaffing directly influence the incidence of HAIs. Only three studies showed no significant association between BO rates and the incidence of HAIs. Interestingly, only one of the included studies detected a seasonal trend in the BO rate. The present review shows an association between BO rates and the spread of HAIs in various settings. Because the evidence on this topic is limited, we conclude that further research is needed in order to analyse the rationale of a threshold BO rate, because keeping beds empty is comparatively costly.

Epidemiology meets econometrics: using time-series analysis to observe the impact of bed occupancy rates on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria.

Two multivariate time-series analyses were carried out to identify the impact of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of hospital stay on the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in a teaching hospital. Epidemiological data on the incidences of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria were collected. Time-series of bed occupancy rates, turnover intervals and the average length of stay were tested for inclusion in the models as independent variables. Incidence was defined as nosocomial cases per 1000 patient-days. This included all patients infected or colonised with MRSA/ESBL more than 48h after admission. Between January 2003 and July 2008, a mean incidence of 0.15 nosocomial MRSA cases was identified. ESBL was not included in the surveillance until January 2005. Between January 2005 and July 2008 the mean incidence of nosocomial ESBL was also 0.15 cases per 1000 patient-days. The two multivariate models demonstrate a temporal relationship between bed occupancy rates in general wards and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL. Similarly, the temporal relationship between the monthly average length of stay in intensive care units (ICUs) and the incidence of nosocomial MRSA and ESBL was demonstrated. Overcrowding in general wards and long periods of ICU stay were identified as factors influencing the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria in hospital settings.