Costs of Care for Operative and Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed operatively or nonoperatively, with outcomes that vary by diagnosis. We hypothesized that operative management would lead to higher in-hospital costs but to cost savings over time. BACKGROUND: EGS conditions account for $28 billion in health care costs in the United States annually. Compared with scheduled surgery, patients who undergo emergency surgery are at increased risk of complications, readmissions, and death, with accompanying costs of care that are up to 50% higher than elective surgery. Our prior work demonstrated that operative management had variable impacts on clinical outcomes depending on the EGS condition. METHODS: This was a nationwide, retrospective study using fee-for-service Medicare claims data. We included patients 65.5 years of age or older with a principal diagnosis for an EGS condition 7/1/2015-6/30/2018. EGS conditions were categorized as: colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB), intestinal obstruction, and upper gastrointestinal. We used near-far matching with a preference-based instrumental variable to adjust for confounding and selection bias. Outcomes included Medicare payments for the index hospitalization and at 30, 90, and 180 days. RESULTS: Of 507,677 patients, 30.6% received an operation. For HPB conditions, costs for operative management were initially higher but became equivalent at 90 and 180 days. For all others, operative management was associated with higher inpatient costs, which persisted, though narrowed, over time. Out-of-pocket costs were nearly equivalent for operative and nonoperative management. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with nonoperative management, costs were higher or equivalent for operative management of EGS conditions through 180 days, which could impact decision-making for clinicians, patients, and health systems in situations where clinical outcomes are similar.

Health Care Use Among Patients Retroactively Insured via a Hospital-Based Insurance Linkage Program.

OBJECTIVE: Over 25% of the 27 million uninsured individuals in the United States are eligible for Medicaid. Many hospitals have insurance linkage programs that assist eligible patients with enrollment, but little is known about the impact of these programs on care utilization. This research assessed health care utilization and health outcomes among patients enrolled in Medicaid via a hospital-based insurance linkage program. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included adults aged 18-64 admitted to the hospital from 2016 to 2021. Those who obtained insurance retroactively via insurance linkage (RI) were compared with those who presented with Medicaid (MI) or remained uninsured (UI). The primary outcome was the presence of at least one visit with a primary care provider (PCP) in the 12 months following index admission. Secondary outcomes included having an assigned PCP, ED revisits, and hospital readmissions. For patients with diabetes and hypertension, 12-month hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and blood pressure (BP) readings were tracked. RESULTS: Of 3882 patients admitted with no insurance, 2905 (74.8%) were enrolled in insurance (RI). In multivariable analysis, RI patients were 14% more likely (OR 1.14, p = 0.020) to have completed at least one PCP visit by 12 months after index admission compared to those with preexisting Medicaid (MI), and uninsured patients were 29% less likely (OR 0.71, p = 0.003). MI and RI patients also had more ED revisits (p < 0.001) and greater 12-month reductions in blood pressure (p < 0.001) compared with uninsured patients. CONCLUSION: Hospital-based insurance linkage reached three-quarters of uninsured patients and was associated with increased utilization of acute and outpatient health care services. An acute care encounter represents an opportunity to connect patients to insurance, a key step toward improving their health outcomes.

Colleges and Crime-Comparing Homicide and Suicide Rates Among College Towns and Their Counterparts.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate differences in homicide and suicide rates across college town status and determine whether college towns were predisposed to changes in rates over time. METHODS: We analyzed county-level homicide and suicide rates (total and by firearm) across college town status using 2015-2019 CDC death certificate data and data from the American Communities Project. RESULTS: Population-level homicide rates were similar across college town status, but younger age groups were at increased risk for firearm homicide and total homicide in college towns. College town status was associated with lower population-level firearm suicide rates, but individuals aged less than 18 y were at increased risk for total and firearm suicide. Finally, college towns were not classified as outliers for changes in either firearm homicide or suicide rates over time. CONCLUSIONS: College towns had similar homicide rates and significantly lower firearm suicide rates than other counties; however, individuals aged less than 18 y were at increased risk for both outcomes. The distinctive demographic, social, economic, and cultural features of college towns may contribute to differing risk profiles among certain age groups, thus may also be amenable to focused prevention efforts.

Hemodynamic Deterioration of Trauma Patients Undergoing Interhospital Transfer.

INTRODUCTION: Organized trauma systems reduce morbidity and mortality after serious injury. Rapid transport to high-level trauma centers is ideal, but not always feasible. Thus, interhospital transfers are an important component of trauma systems. However, transferring a seriously injured patient carries the risk of worsening condition before reaching definitive care. In this study, we evaluated characteristics and outcomes of patients whose hemodynamic status worsened during the transfer process. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study database from 2011 to 2018. Patients were included if they had a heart rate ≤ 100 and systolic blood pressure ≥ 100 at presentation to the referring hospital and were transferred within 24 h. We defined hemodynamic deterioration (HDD) as admitting heart rate > 100 or systolic blood pressure < 100 at the receiving center. We compared demographics, mechanism of injury, injury severity, management, and outcomes between patients with and without HDD using descriptive statistics and multivariable regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 52,919 included patients, 5331 (10.1%) had HDD. HDD patients were more often moderately-severely injured (injury severity score 9-15; 40.4% versus 39.4%, P < 0.001) and injured via motor vehicle collision (23.2% versus 16.6%, P < 0.001) or gunshot wound (2.1% versus 1.3%, P < 0.001). HDD patients more often had extremity or torso injuries and after transfer were more likely to be transferred to the intensive care unit (35% versus 28.5%, P < 0.001), go directly to surgery (8.4% versus 5.9%, P < 0.001), or interventional radiology (0.8% versus 0.3%, P < 0.001). Overall mortality in the HDD group was 4.9% versus 2.1% in the group who remained stable. These results were confirmed using multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Interhospital transfers are essential in trauma, but one in 10 transferred patients deteriorated hemodynamically in that process. This high-risk component of the trauma system requires close attention to the important aspects of transfer such as patient selection, pretransfer management/stabilization, and communication between facilities.

The open abdomen in mesenteric ischemia: A tool for patients undergoing revascularization.

BACKGROUND: We examined outcomes in Acute Mesenteric Ischemia (AMI) with the hypothesis that Open Abdomen (OA) is associated with decreased mortality. METHODS: We performed a cohort study reviewing NSQIP emergency laparotomy patients, 2016-2020, with a postoperative diagnosis of mesenteric ischemia. OA was defined using flags for patients without fascial closure. Logistic regression was used with outcomes of 30-day mortality and several secondary outcomes. RESULTS: Out of 5514 cases, 4624 (83.9%) underwent resection and 387 (7.0%) underwent revascularization. The OA rate was 32.6%. 10.8% of patients who were closed required reoperation. After adjustment for demographics, transfer status, comorbidities, preoperative variables including creatinine, white blood cell count, and anemia, as well as operative time, OA was associated with OR 1.58 for mortality (95% CI [1.38, 1.81], p < 0.001). Among revascularizations, there was no such association (p = 0.528). OA was associated with ventilator support >48 h (OR 4.04, 95% CI [3.55, 4.62], and p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: OA in AMI was associated with increased mortality and prolonged ventilation. This is not so in revascularization patients, and 1 in 10 patients who underwent primary closure required reoperation. OA should be considered in specific cases of AMI. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Retrospective cohort, Level III.

Modifiable Factors Related to Firearm Homicides: A Broader View of Our Lane.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to identify modifiable factors related to firearm homicide (FH). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Many socioeconomic, legislative and behavioral risk factors impact FH. Most studies have evaluated these risk factors in isolation, but they coexist in a complex and ever-changing American society. We hypothesized that both restrictive firearm laws and socioeconomic support would correlate with reduced FH rates. METHODS: To perform our ecologic cross-sectional study, we queried the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) for 2013-2016 state FH data. We retrieved firearm access estimates from the RAND State-Level Firearm Ownership Database. Alcohol use and access to care data were captured from the CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Detached youth rates, socioeconomic support data and poverty metrics were captured from US Census data for each state in each year. Firearm laws were obtained from the State Firearms Law Database. Variables with significant FH association were entered into a final multivariable panel linear regression with fixed effect for state. RESULTS: A total of 49,610 FH occurred in 2013-2016 (median FH rate: 3.9:100,000, range: 0.07-11.2). In univariate analysis, increases in concealed carry limiting laws ( P =0.012), detached youth rates ( P <0.001), socioeconomic support ( P <0.001) and poverty rates ( P <0.001) correlated with decreased FH. Higher rates of heavy drinking ( P =0.036) and the presence of stand your ground doctrines ( P =0.045) were associated with increased FH. Background checks, handgun limiting laws, and weapon access were not correlated with FH. In multivariable regression, increased access to food benefits for those in poverty [ß: -0.132, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.182 to -0.082, P <0.001] and laws limiting concealed carry (ß: -0.543, 95% CI: -0.942 to -0.144, P =0.008) were associated with decreased FH rates. Allowance of stand your ground was associated with more FHs (ß: 1.52, 95% CI: 0.069-2.960, P <0.040). CONCLUSIONS: The causes and potential solutions to FH are complex and closely tied to public policy. Our data suggests that certain types of socioeconomic support and firearm restrictive legislation should be emphasized in efforts to reduce firearm deaths in America.

Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: An Observational Study Using a Novel Instrumental Variable.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of operative versus nonoperative management of emergency general surgery conditions on short-term and long-term outcomes. BACKGROUND: Many emergency general surgery conditions can be managed either operatively or nonoperatively, but high-quality evidence to guide management decisions is scarce. METHODS: We included 507,677 Medicare patients treated for an emergency general surgery condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018. Operative management was compared with nonoperative management using a preference-based instrumental variable analysis and near-far matching to minimize selection bias and unmeasured confounding. Outcomes were mortality, complications, and readmissions. RESULTS: For hepatopancreaticobiliary conditions, operative management was associated with lower risk of mortality at 30 days [-2.6% (95% confidence interval: -4.0, -1.3)], 90 days [-4.7% (-6.50, -2.8)], and 180 days [-6.4% (-8.5, -4.2)]. Among 56,582 intestinal obstruction patients, operative management was associated with a higher risk of inpatient mortality [2.8% (0.7, 4.9)] but no significant difference thereafter. For upper gastrointestinal conditions, operative management was associated with a 9.7% higher risk of in-hospital mortality (6.4, 13.1), which increased over time. There was a 6.9% higher risk of inpatient mortality (3.6, 10.2) with operative management for colorectal conditions, which increased over time. For general abdominal conditions, operative management was associated with 12.2% increased risk of inpatient mortality (8.7, 15.8). This effect was attenuated at 30 days [8.5% (3.8, 13.2)] and nonsignificant thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of operative emergency general surgery management varied across conditions and over time. For colorectal and upper gastrointestinal conditions, outcomes are superior with nonoperative management, whereas surgery is favored for patients with hepatopancreaticobiliary conditions. For obstructions and general abdominal conditions, results were equivalent overall. These findings may support patients, clinicians, and families making these challenging decisions.

The Conditional Effects of Multimorbidity on Operative Versus Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: A Retrospective Observational Study Using an Instrumental Variable Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To understand how multimorbidity impacts operative versus nonoperative management of emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions. BACKGROUND: EGS is a heterogenous field, encompassing operative and nonoperative treatment options. Decision-making is particularly complex for older patients with multimorbidity. METHODS: Using an instrumental variable approach with near-far matching, this national, retrospective observational cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries examines the conditional effects of multimorbidity, defined using qualifying comorbidity sets, on operative versus nonoperative management of EGS conditions. RESULTS: Of 507,667 patients with EGS conditions, 155,493 (30.6%) received an operation. Overall, 278,836 (54.9%) were multimorbid. After adjustment, multimorbidity significantly increased the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with operative management for general abdominal patients (+9.8%; P = 0.002) and upper gastrointestinal patients (+19.9%, P < 0.001) and the risk of 30-day mortality (+27.7%, P < 0.001) and nonroutine discharge (+21.8%, P = 0.007) associated with operative management for upper gastrointestinal patients. Regardless of multimorbidity status, operative management was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality among colorectal patients (multimorbid: + 12%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +4%, P = 0.003), higher risk of nonroutine discharge among colorectal (multimorbid: +42.3%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +55.1%, P < 0.001) and intestinal obstruction patients (multimorbid: +14.6%, P = 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +14.8%, P = 0.001), and lower risk of nonroutine discharge (multimorbid: -11.5%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: -11.9%, P < 0.001) and 30-day readmissions (multimorbid: -8.2%, P = 0.002; nonmultimorbid: -9.7%, P < 0.001) among hepatobiliary patients. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of multimorbidity on operative versus nonoperative management varied by EGS condition category. Physicians and patients should have honest conversations about the expected risks and benefits of treatment options, and future investigations should aim to understand the optimal management of multimorbid EGS patients.

Conditional Effects of Race on Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

INTRODUCTION: Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed both operatively or nonoperatively; however, it is unknown whether the decision to operate affects Black and White patients differentially. METHODS: We identified a nationwide cohort of Black and White Medicare beneficiaries, hospitalized for common EGS conditions from July 2015 to June 2018. Using near-far matching to adjust for measurable confounding and an instrumental variable analysis to control for selection bias associated with treatment assignment, we compare outcomes of operative and nonoperative management in a stratified population of Black and White patients. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, nonroutine discharge, and 30-day readmissions. An interaction test based on a t test was used to determine the conditional effects of operative versus nonoperative management between Black and White patients. RESULTS: A total of 556,087 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 59,519 (10.7%) were Black and 496,568 (89.3%) were White. Overall, 165,932 (29.8%) patients had an operation and 390,155 (70.2%) were managed nonoperatively. Significant outcome differences were seen between operative and nonoperative management for some conditions; however, no significant differences were seen for the conditional effect of race on outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The decision to manage an EGS patient operatively versus nonoperatively has varying effects on surgical outcomes. These effects vary by EGS condition. There were no significant conditional effects of race on the outcomes of operative versus nonoperative management among universally insured older adults hospitalized with EGS conditions.

A Statewide Analysis of Self-Inflicted Injuries During COVID-19 Pandemic: Is There Adequate Access to Mental Health?

INTRODUCTION: Many social and behavioral changes occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our objective was to identify changes in incidence of self-inflicted injuries during COVID-19 compared to prepandemic years. Further, we aimed to identify risk factors associated with self-inflicted injuries before and during the pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients aged ≥18 y with self-inflicted injuries from 2018 to 2021 was performed using the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcome Study registry. Patients were grouped into pre-COVID Era (pre-CE, 2018-2019) and COVID Era (CE, 2020-2021). Statistical comparisons were accomplished using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests and chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. RESULTS: There were a total of 1075 self-inflicted injuries in the pre-CE cohort and 482 during the CE. There were no differences in age, gender, race or ethnicity between the two cohorts. Among preexisting conditions, those within the pre-CE cohort had a higher incidence of mental/personality disorder (59.2% versus 52.3%, P = 0.01). There were no significant differences in the mechanism of self-inflicted injuries or place of injury between the two periods. Additionally, there were no differences in discharge destinations or mortality between the two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: During the height of social isolation in Pennsylvania, there were no associated increases in self-inflicted injuries. However, there were increased incidences of self-inflicted injuries among those with a prior diagnosis of mental or personality disorder in the pre-CE group. Further investigations are required to study the access to mental health services in future pandemics or public health disasters.

Patient Experiences of Acute and Postacute Care After Trauma.

INTRODUCTION: Traumatic injury can transform a healthy, independent individual into a patient with complex health needs. Little is known about how injured patients understand their health and healthcare needs during postacute recovery, limiting our ability to optimize care. This multiple-methods study explored injured patients' experiences of care up to 30 days after discharge. METHODS: Injured adults admitted to an urban, Level I trauma center August 1, 2019-November 30, 2020 were sampled purposively to balance blunt and penetrating injuries. Patient experience and health status were assessed at baseline and 30 days postdischarge using the Quality of Trauma Care Patient-Reported Experience Measure. Fifteen qualitative interviews were conducted with a purposive subset and analyzed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Of 67 participants (76% male, 73% Black, 51% penetrating, median age 34 years), 37 completed follow-up surveys. Quality of acute care was rated 9-10/10 by 81% of the sample for acute and 65% for postacute care (P = 0.09). Thirty percent described fair or poor mental health, but only mental health concerns were addressed for only 2/3. Pain control was inadequate in 31% at baseline and for 46% at follow-up (P = 0.09). Qualitative analysis revealed general satisfaction with acute care but challenges in recovery with unmet needs for communication and care coordination. CONCLUSIONS: Trauma patients appreciated the quality of their acute care experiences but identified opportunities for improvement in prognostic communication, pain management, and mental health support. Unmet mental and physical care needs persist at least 1 month after hospital discharge and reinforce the need for interventions that optimize postacute trauma care.

Emergency Surgery, Multimorbidity and Hospital-Free Days: A Retrospective Observational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Analyzing hospital-free days (HFDs) offers a patient-centered approach to health services research. We hypothesized that, within emergency general surgery (EGS), multimorbidity would be associated with fewer HFDs, whether patients were managed operatively or nonoperatively. METHODS: EGS patients were identified using national Medicare claims data (2015-2018). Patients were classified as multimorbid based on the presence of a Qualifying Comorbidity Set and stratified by treatment: operative (received surgery within 48 h of index admission) and nonoperative. HFDs were calculated through 180 d, beginning on the day of index admission, as days alive and spent outside of a hospital, an Emergency Department, or a long-term acute care facility. Univariate comparisons were performed using Kruskal-Wallis tests and risk-adjusted HFDs were compared between multimorbid and nonmultimorbid patients using multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Among 174,891 operative patients, 45.5% were multimorbid. Among 398,756 nonoperative patients, 59.2% were multimorbid. Multimorbid patients had fewer median HFDs than nonmultimorbid patients among operative and nonoperative cohorts (P < 0.001). At 6 mo, among operative patients, multimorbid patients had 6.5 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001), and among nonoperative patients, multimorbid patients had 7.9 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001). When length of stay was included as a covariate, nonoperative multimorbid patients still had 7.9 fewer HFDs than nonoperative, nonmultimorbid patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HFDs offer a patient-centered, composite outcome for claims-based analyses. For EGS patients, multimorbidity was associated with less time alive and out of the hospital, especially when patients were managed nonoperatively.

National Cohort Study of Resource Utilization in Older Adults With Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

INTRODUCTION: Prior studies have sought to describe Emergency General Surgery (EGS) burden, but a detailed description of resource utilization for both operative and nonoperative management of EGS conditions has not been undertaken. METHODS: Patient and hospital characteristics were extracted from Medicare data, 2015-2018. Operations, nonsurgical procedures, and other resources (i.e., radiology) were defined using Current Procedural Terminology codes. RESULTS: One million eight hundred two thousand five hundred forty-five patients were included in the cohort. The mean age was 74.7 y and the most common diagnoses were upper gastrointestinal. The majority of hospitals were metropolitan (75.1%). Therapeutic radiology services were available in 78.4% of hospitals and operating rooms or endoscopy suites were available in 92.5% of hospitals. There was variability in resource utilization across EGS subconditions, with hepatobiliary (26.4%) and obstruction (23.9%) patients most frequently undergoing operation. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of EGS diseases in older adults involves several interventional resources. Changes in EGS models, acute care surgery training, and interhospital care coordination may be beneficial to the treatment of EGS patients.

Multimorbidity Confers Greater Risk for Older Patients in Emergency General Surgery Than the Presence of Multiple Comorbidities: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the impact of multimorbidity on outcomes for older emergency general surgery patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to understand whether having multiple comorbidities confers the same amount of risk as specific combinations of comorbidities (multimorbidity) for a patient undergoing emergency general surgery. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective observational study using state discharge data. SUBJECTS: Medicare beneficiaries who underwent an operation for an emergency general surgery condition in New York, Florida, or Pennsylvania (2012-2013). MEASURES: Patients were classified as multimorbid using Qualifying Comorbidity Sets (QCSs). Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay and discharge status. RESULTS: Of 312,160 patients, a large minority (37.4%) were multimorbid. Non-QCS patients did not have a specific combination of comorbidities to satisfy a QCS, but 64.1% of these patients had 3+ comorbid conditions. Multimorbidity was associated with increased in-hospital mortality (10.5% vs. 3.9%, P <0.001), decreased rates of discharge to home (16.2% vs. 37.1%, P <0.001), and longer length of stay (10.4 d±13.5 vs. 6.7 d±9.3, P <0.001) when compared with non-QCS patients. Risks varied between individual QCSs. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity, defined by satisfying a specific QCS, is strongly associated with poor outcomes for older patients requiring emergency general surgery in the United States. Variation in risk of in-hospital mortality, discharge status, and length of stay between individual QCSs suggests that multimorbidity does not carry the same prognostic weight as having multiple comorbidities-the specifics of which are important in setting expectations for individual, complex patients.

Disparities in Insurance Status Are Associated With Outcomes but Not Timing of Trauma Care.

INTRODUCTION: Patient factors influence outcomes after injury. Delays in care have a crucial impact. We investigated the associations between patient characteristics and timing of transfer from the emergency department to definitive care. METHODS: This was a review of adult trauma patients treated between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2018. Bivariate analyses were used to build Cox proportional hazards models. We built separate logistic and negative binomial regression models for secondary outcomes using mixed-step selection to minimize the Akaike information criterion c. RESULTS: A total of 1219 patients were included; 68.5% were male, 56.8% White, 11.2% Black, and 7.8% Asian/Pacific Islander. The average age was 51 ± 21 y. Overall, 13.7% of patients were uninsured. The average length of stay was 5 d and mortality was 5.9%. Shorter transfer time out of the emergency department was associated with higher tier of activation (relative risk [RR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.77; P = 0.0074), Injury Severity Score between 16 and 24 points (RR 1.57, 95% CI 1.04-2.32; P = 0.0307) or ≥25 (RR 3.85, 95% CI 2.45-5.94; P = 0.0001), and penetrating injury. Longer time to event was associated with Glasgow coma scale score ≥14 points (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.27-0.85; P = 0.0141). Uninsured patients were less likely to be admitted (odds ratio 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.48; P = 0.0001) and more likely to experience shorter length of stay (incidence rate ratio 0.34, 95% CI 0.24-0.51; P = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Injury characteristics and insurance status were associated with patient outcomes in this retrospective, single-center study. We found no disparity in timing of intrafacility transfer, perhaps indicating that initial management protocols preserve equity.

Demographic and Regional Factors Associated With Reporting Homicides of Transgender People in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The American Medical Association recently declared homicides of transgender individuals an epidemic. However, transgender homicide victims are often classified as nontransgender. Our objective was to describe existing data and coding of trans (i.e., transgender) victims and to examine the risk factors for homicides of trans people relative to nontrans people across the United States. METHODS: A retrospective review of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Violent Death Reporting System for the years 2003-2018 identified victims defined as transgender either through the "transgender" variable or narrative reports. Fisher's exact tests and logistic regression models were run to compare the demographics of trans victims to those not identified as trans. RESULTS: Of the 147 transgender victims identified, 14.4% were incorrectly coded as nontrans despite clear indication of trans status in the narrative description, and 6% were coded as hate crimes. Relative to nontrans victims, trans victims were more frequently Black (54.4% versus 40.7%, P = 0.001), had a mental health condition (26.5% versus 11.3%, P < 0.001), or reported being a sex worker (9.5% versus 0.2%, P < 0.001). There were disproportionately few homicides of transgender people in the South (13.6% of trans victims versus 29.1% of nontrans victims, P < 0.001). Conversely, the West and Midwest accounted for a higher-than-expected proportion of trans victims relative to nontrans victims (23.1% of trans victims versus 16.2% of nontrans victims, P = 0.03; 24.5% of trans victims versus 16.8% of nontrans victims, P = 0.02, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Though the murder of transgender individuals is a known public health crisis, inconsistencies still exist in the assessment and reporting of transgender status. Further, these individuals were more likely to have multiple distinct vulnerabilities. These findings provide important information for injury and violence prevention researchers to improve reporting of transgender status in the medical record and local trauma registries.

The changing epidemiology of interpersonal firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, PA.

Recent increases in firearm violence in U.S. cities are well-documented, however dynamic changes in the people, places and intensity of this public health threat during the COVID-19 pandemic are relatively unexplored. This descriptive epidemiologic study spanning from January 1, 2015 - March 31, 2021 utilizes the Philadelphia Police Department's registry of shooting victims, a database which includes all individuals shot and/or killed due to interpersonal firearm violence in the city of Philadelphia. We compared victim and event characteristics prior to the pandemic with those following implementation of pandemic containment measures. In this study, containment began on March 16, 2020, when non-essential businesses were ordered to close in Philadelphia. There were 331 (SE = 13.9) individuals shot/quarter pre-containment vs. 545 (SE = 66.4) individuals shot/quarter post-containment (p = 0.031). Post-containment, the proportion of women shot increased by 39% (95% CI: 1.21, 1.59), and the proportion of children shot increased by 17% (95% CI: 1.00, 1.35). Black women and children were more likely to be shot post-containment (RR 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 and RR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.14, respectively). The proportion of mass shootings (≥4 individuals shot within 100 m within 1 h) increased by 53% post-containment (95% CI: 1.25, 1.88). Geographic analysis revealed relative increases in all shootings and mass shootings in specific city locations post-containment. The observed changes in firearm injury epidemiology following COVID-19 containment in Philadelphia demonstrate an intensification in firearm violence, which is increasingly impacting people who are likely made more vulnerable by existing social and structural disadvantage. These findings support existing knowledge about structural causes of interpersonal firearm violence and suggest structural solutions are required to address this public health threat.

Firearm Violence, Access to Care, and Gentrification: A Moving Target for American Trauma Systems.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether gentrification predicts the movement of shooting victims over time and if this process has decreased access to care. BACKGROUND: Trauma centers remain fixed in space, but the populations they serve do not. Nationally, gentrification has displaced disadvantaged communities most at risk for violent injury, potentially decreasing access to care. This process has not been studied, but an increase of only 1 mile from a trauma center increases shooting mortality up to 22%. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study utilizing Philadelphia Police Department (PPD) and Pennsylvania trauma systems outcome (PTOS) data 2006-2018. Shootings were mapped and grouped into census tracts. They were then cross-mapped with gentrification data and hospital location. PPD and PTOS shooting data were compared to ensure patients requiring trauma care were captured. Census tracts with ≥500 residents with income and median home values in the bottom 40th percentile of the metropolitan area were eligible to gentrify. Tracts were gentrified if residents ≥25 with a bachelor's degree increased and home price increased to the top third in the metropolitan area. Change in distribution of shootings and its relation to gentrification was our primary outcome while proximity of shootings to a trauma center was our secondary outcome. RESULTS: Thirty-two percent (123/379) of eligible tracts gentrified and 31,165 shootings were captured in the PPD database. 9090 (29.2%) patients meeting trauma criteria were captured in PTOS with an increasing proportion over time. The proportion of shootings within gentrifying tracts significantly dropped 2006-2018 (40%-35%, P < 0.001) and increased in non-gentrifying tracts (52%-57%, P < 0.001). In evaluation of shooting densities, a predictable redistribution occurred 2006-2018 with incident density decreasing in gentrified areas and increasing in non-gentrified areas. Shootings within 1 mile of a trauma center increased overall, but proportional access decreased in gentrified areas. CONCLUSIONS: Shootings in Philadelphia predictably moved out of gentrified areas and concentrated in non-gentrified ones. In this case study of a national crisis, the pattern of change paradoxically resulted in an increased clustering of shootings around trauma centers in non-gentrified areas. Repetition of this work in other cities can guide future resource allocation and be used to improve access to trauma care.

Firearm Homicide Incidence, Within-state Firearm Laws, and Interstate Firearm Laws in US Counties.

BACKGROUND: Firearm homicides occur less frequently in US states with more firearm control laws. However, firearms are easily transported across state lines, and laws in one location may affect firearm violence in another. This study examined associations between within-state firearm laws and firearm homicide while accounting for interference from laws in other nearby states. METHODS: The units of analysis were 3,107 counties in the 48 contiguous US states, arrayed in 15 yearly panels for 2000 to 2014 (n = 46,605). The dependent measure was firearm homicides accessed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Compressed Mortality Data. The main independent measures were counts of firearm laws and the proportion of laws within categories (e.g., background checks, child access prevention laws). We calculated these measures for interstate laws using a geographic gravity function between county centroids. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models related within-state firearm laws and interstate firearm laws to firearm homicides. RESULTS: There were 172,726 firearm homicides in the included counties over the 15 years. States had between 3 and 100 firearm laws. Within-state firearm laws (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.995, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.992, 0.997) and interstate firearm laws (IRR = 0.993, 95% CI = 0.990, 0.996) were independently associated with fewer firearm homicides, and associations for within-state laws were strongest where interstate laws were weakest. CONCLUSIONS: Additional firearm laws are associated with fewer firearm homicides both within the states where the laws are enacted and elsewhere in the United States. Interference from interstate firearm laws may bias associations for studies of within-state laws and firearm homicide.

Commentary: Reducing youth firearm violence and the associated health disparities requires enhanced surveillance and modern behavioral intervention strategies - a commentary on Bottiani et al. (2021).

Youth firearm injury is a worsening public health crisis, and the risks are not distributed evenly. Bottiani et al. skillfully explicated those health disparities, described sociological factors underlying them, and explored avenues for prevention. We supplement their analysis by detailing problems and solutions related to a critical barrier to firearm violence prevention - the nonexistence both of reliable 'gold standard' nonfatal firearm injury surveillance data, and systems for near real-time surveillance of firearm injuries at granular spatial scales that would enable to optimization of rapid response protocols and neighborhood-based prevention programs. We conclude with a discussion of modern, scalable, behavioral intervention approaches that could be leveraged to fill the largely absent evidence base resulting from the documented underfunding of youth firearm violence prevention research.