Disrupting autorepression circuitry generates "open-loop lethality" to yield escape-resistant antiviral agents.

Across biological scales, gene-regulatory networks employ autorepression (negative feedback) to maintain homeostasis and minimize failure from aberrant expression. Here, we present a proof of concept that disrupting transcriptional negative feedback dysregulates viral gene expression to therapeutically inhibit replication and confers a high evolutionary barrier to resistance. We find that nucleic-acid decoys mimicking cis-regulatory sites act as "feedback disruptors," break homeostasis, and increase viral transcription factors to cytotoxic levels (termed "open-loop lethality"). Feedback disruptors against herpesviruses reduced viral replication >2-logs without activating innate immunity, showed sub-nM IC50, synergized with standard-of-care antivirals, and inhibited virus replication in mice. In contrast to approved antivirals where resistance rapidly emerged, no feedback-disruptor escape mutants evolved in long-term cultures. For SARS-CoV-2, disruption of a putative feedback circuit also generated open-loop lethality, reducing viral titers by >1-log. These results demonstrate that generating open-loop lethality, via negative-feedback disruption, may yield a class of antimicrobials with a high genetic barrier to resistance.

Influenza A viral burst size from thousands of infected single cells using droplet quantitative PCR (dqPCR).

An important aspect of how viruses spread and infect is the viral burst size, or the number of new viruses produced by each infected cell. Surprisingly, this value remains poorly characterized for influenza A virus (IAV), commonly known as the flu. In this study, we screened tens of thousands of cells using a microfluidic method called droplet quantitative PCR (dqPCR). The high-throughput capability of dqPCR enabled the measurement of a large population of infected cells producing progeny virus. By measuring the fully assembled and successfully released viruses from these infected cells, we discover that the viral burst sizes for both the seasonal H3N2 and the 2009 pandemic H1N1 strains vary significantly, with H3N2 ranging from 101 to 104 viruses per cell, and H1N1 ranging from 101 to 103 viruses per cell. Some infected cells produce average numbers of new viruses, while others generate extensive number of viruses. In fact, we find that only 10% of the single-cell infections are responsible for creating a significant portion of all the viruses. This small fraction produced approximately 60% of new viruses for H3N2 and 40% for H1N1. On average, each infected cell of the H3N2 flu strain produced 709 new viruses, whereas for H1N1, each infected cell produced 358 viruses. This novel method reveals insights into the flu virus and can lead to improved strategies for managing and preventing the spread of viruses.

Understanding early HIV-1 rebound dynamics following antiretroviral therapy interruption: The importance of effector cell expansion.

Most people living with HIV-1 experience rapid viral rebound once antiretroviral therapy is interrupted; however, a small fraction remain in viral remission for an extended duration. Understanding the factors that determine whether viral rebound is likely after treatment interruption can enable the development of optimal treatment regimens and therapeutic interventions to potentially achieve a functional cure for HIV-1. We built upon the theoretical framework proposed by Conway and Perelson to construct dynamic models of virus-immune interactions to study factors that influence viral rebound dynamics. We evaluated these models using viral load data from 24 individuals following antiretroviral therapy interruption. The best-performing model accurately captures the heterogeneity of viral dynamics and highlights the importance of the effector cell expansion rate. Our results show that post-treatment controllers and non-controllers can be distinguished based on the effector cell expansion rate in our models. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the potential of using dynamic models incorporating an effector cell response to understand early viral rebound dynamics post-antiretroviral therapy interruption.

Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody.

To mitigate the loss of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with variants susceptible to mAb therapy. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response antiviral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection.

Transcriptional Reprogramming during Effector-to-Memory Transition Renders CD4+ T Cells Permissive for Latent HIV-1 Infection.

The latent reservoir for HIV-1 in resting memory CD4+ T cells is the major barrier to curing HIV-1 infection. Studies of HIV-1 latency have focused on regulation of viral gene expression in cells in which latent infection is established. However, it remains unclear how infection initially becomes latent. Here we described a unique set of properties of CD4+ T cells undergoing effector-to-memory transition including temporary upregulation of CCR5 expression and rapid downregulation of cellular gene transcription. These cells allowed completion of steps in the HIV-1 life cycle through integration but suppressed HIV-1 gene transcription, thus allowing the establishment of latency. CD4+ T cells in this stage were substantially more permissive for HIV-1 latent infection than other CD4+ T cells. Establishment of latent HIV-1 infection in CD4+ T could be inhibited by viral-specific CD8+ T cells, a result with implications for elimination of latent HIV-1 infection by T cell-based vaccines.

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

The Effects of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Antigen-Expanded Specific T-Cell Therapy and Vorinostat on Persistent HIV-1 Infection in People With HIV on Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The histone deacetylase inhibitor vorinostat (VOR) can reverse human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) latency in vivo and allow T cells to clear infected cells in vitro. HIV-specific T cells (HXTCs) can be expanded ex vivo and have been safely administered to people with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: Six PWH received infusions of 2 × 107 HXTCs/m² with VOR 400 mg, and 3 PWH received infusions of 10 × 107 HXTCs/m² with VOR. The frequency of persistent HIV by multiple assays including quantitative viral outgrowth assay (QVOA) of resting CD4+ T cells was measured before and after study therapy. RESULTS: VOR and HXTCs were safe, and biomarkers of serial VOR effect were detected, but enhanced antiviral activity in circulating cells was not evident. After 2 × 107 HXTCs/m² with VOR, 1 of 6 PWH exhibited a decrease in QVOA, and all 3 PWH exhibited such declines after 10 × 107 HXTCs/m² and VOR. However, most declines did not exceed the 6-fold threshold needed to definitively attribute decline to the study intervention. CONCLUSIONS: These modest effects provide support for the strategy of HIV latency reversal and reservoir clearance, but more effective interventions are needed to yield the profound depletion of persistent HIV likely to yield clinical benefit. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT03212989.

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2.

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2-3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness.

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data.

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

CD8 lymphocyte depletion enhances the latency reversal activity of the SMAC mimetic AZD5582 in ART-suppressed SIV-infected rhesus macaques.

Inducing latency reversal to reveal infected cells to the host immune system represents a potential strategy to cure HIV infection. In separate studies, we have previously shown that CD8+ T cells may contribute to the maintenance of viral latency and identified a novel SMAC mimetic/IAP inhibitor (AZD5582) capable of reversing HIV/SIV latency in vivo by activating the non-canonical (nc) NF-κB pathway. Here, we use AZD5582 in combination with antibody-mediated depletion of CD8α+ cells to further evaluate the role of CD8+ T cells in viral latency maintenance. Six rhesus macaques (RM) were infected with SIVmac239 and treated with ART starting at week 8 post-infection. After 84-85 weeks of ART, all animals received a single dose of the anti-CD8α depleting antibody (Ab), MT807R1 (50mg/kg, s.c.), followed by 5 weekly doses of AZD5582 (0.1 mg/kg, i.v.). Following CD8α depletion + AZD5582 combined treatment, 100% of RMs experienced on-ART viremia above 60 copies per ml of plasma. In comparator groups of ART-suppressed SIV-infected RMs treated with AZD5582 only or CD8α depletion only, on-ART viremia was experienced by 56% and 57% of the animals respectively. Furthermore, the frequency of increased viremic episodes during the treatment period was greater in the CD8α depletion + AZD5582 group as compared to other groups. Mathematical modeling of virus reactivation suggested that, in addition to viral dynamics during acute infection, CD8α depletion influenced the response to AZD5582. This work suggests that the latency reversal induced by activation of the ncNF-κB signaling pathway with AZD5582 can be enhanced by CD8α+ cell depletion.

Single cell heterogeneity in influenza A virus gene expression shapes the innate antiviral response to infection.

Viral infection outcomes are governed by the complex and dynamic interplay between the infecting virus population and the host response. It is increasingly clear that both viral and host cell populations are highly heterogeneous, but little is known about how this heterogeneity influences infection dynamics or viral pathogenicity. To dissect the interactions between influenza A virus (IAV) and host cell heterogeneity, we examined the combined host and viral transcriptomes of thousands of individual cells, each infected with a single IAV virion. We observed complex patterns of viral gene expression and the existence of multiple distinct host transcriptional responses to infection at the single cell level. We show that human H1N1 and H3N2 strains differ significantly in patterns of both viral and host anti-viral gene transcriptional heterogeneity at the single cell level. Our analyses also reveal that semi-infectious particles that fail to express the viral NS can play a dominant role in triggering the innate anti-viral response to infection. Altogether, these data reveal how patterns of viral population heterogeneity can serve as a major determinant of antiviral gene activation.

Longitudinal Assessment of Diagnostic Test Performance Over the Course of Acute SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: Serial screening is critical for restricting spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by facilitating timely identification of infected individuals to interrupt transmission. Variation in sensitivity of different diagnostic tests at different stages of infection has not been well documented. METHODS: In a longitudinal study of 43 adults newly infected with SARS-CoV-2, all provided daily saliva and nasal swabs for quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), Quidel SARS Sofia antigen fluorescent immunoassay (FIA), and live virus culture. RESULTS: Both RT-qPCR and Quidel SARS Sofia antigen FIA peaked in sensitivity during the period in which live virus was detected in nasal swabs, but sensitivity of RT-qPCR tests rose more rapidly prior to this period. We also found that serial testing multiple times per week increases the sensitivity of antigen tests. CONCLUSIONS: RT-qPCR tests are more effective than antigen tests at identifying infected individuals prior to or early during the infectious period and thus for minimizing forward transmission (given timely results reporting). All tests showed >98% sensitivity for identifying infected individuals if used at least every 3 days. Daily screening using antigen tests can achieve approximately 90% sensitivity for identifying infected individuals while they are viral culture positive.

Autocrine and paracrine interferon signalling as 'ring vaccination' and 'contact tracing' strategies to suppress virus infection in a host.

The innate immune response, particularly the interferon response, represents a first line of defence against viral infections. The interferon molecules produced from infected cells act through autocrine and paracrine signalling to turn host cells into an antiviral state. Although the molecular mechanisms of IFN signalling have been well characterized, how the interferon response collectively contribute to the regulation of host cells to stop or suppress viral infection during early infection remain unclear. Here, we use mathematical models to delineate the roles of the autocrine and the paracrine signalling, and show that their impacts on viral spread are dependent on how infection proceeds. In particular, we found that when infection is well-mixed, the paracrine signalling is not as effective; by contrast, when infection spreads in a spatial manner, a likely scenario during initial infection in tissue, the paracrine signalling can impede the spread of infection by decreasing the number of susceptible cells close to the site of infection. Furthermore, we argue that the interferon response can be seen as a parallel to population-level epidemic prevention strategies such as 'contact tracing' or 'ring vaccination'. Thus, our results here may have implications for the outbreak control at the population scale more broadly.

Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination.

SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread from a regional outbreak to a global pandemic in just a few months. Global research efforts have focused on developing effective vaccines against COVID-19. However, some of the basic epidemiological parameters, such as the exponential epidemic growth rate and the basic reproductive number, R0, across geographic areas are still not well quantified. Here, we developed and fit a mathematical model to case and death count data collected from the United States and eight European countries during the early epidemic period before broad control measures were implemented. Results show that the early epidemic grew exponentially at rates between 0.18 and 0.29/day (epidemic doubling times between 2.4 and 3.9 days). We found that for such rapid epidemic growth, high levels of intervention efforts are necessary, no matter the goal is mitigation or containment. We discuss the current estimates of the mean serial interval, and argue that existing evidence suggests that the interval is between 6 and 8 days in the absence of active isolation efforts. Using parameters consistent with this range, we estimated the median R0 value to be 5.8 (confidence interval: 4.7-7.3) in the United States and between 3.6 and 6.1 in the eight European countries. We further analyze how vaccination schedules depend on R0, the duration of protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and show that individual-level heterogeneity in vaccine induced immunity can significantly affect vaccination schedules.

Superinfection and cure of infected cells as mechanisms for hepatitis C virus adaptation and persistence.

RNA viruses exist as a genetically diverse quasispecies with extraordinary ability to adapt to abrupt changes in the host environment. However, the molecular mechanisms that contribute to their rapid adaptation and persistence in vivo are not well studied. Here, we probe hepatitis C virus (HCV) persistence by analyzing clinical samples taken from subjects who were treated with a second-generation HCV protease inhibitor. Frequent longitudinal viral load determinations and large-scale single-genome sequence analyses revealed rapid antiviral resistance development, and surprisingly, dynamic turnover of dominant drug-resistant mutant populations long after treatment cessation. We fitted mathematical models to both the viral load and the viral sequencing data, and the results provided strong support for the critical roles that superinfection and cure of infected cells play in facilitating the rapid turnover and persistence of viral populations. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of considering viral dynamics and competition at the intracellular level in understanding rapid viral adaptation. Thus, we propose a theoretical framework integrating viral and molecular mechanisms to explain rapid viral evolution, resistance, and persistence despite antiviral treatment and host immune responses.

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

NS5A inhibitors unmask differences in functional replicase complex half-life between different hepatitis C virus strains.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA is synthesized by the replicase complex (RC), a macromolecular assembly composed of viral non-structural proteins and cellular co-factors. Inhibitors of the HCV NS5A protein block formation of new RCs but do not affect RNA synthesis by pre-formed RCs. Without new RC formation, existing RCs turn over and are eventually lost from the cell. We aimed to use NS5A inhibitors to estimate the half-life of the functional RC of HCV. We compared different cell culture-infectious strains of HCV that may be grouped based on their sensitivity to lipid peroxidation: robustly replicating, lipid peroxidation resistant (LPOR) viruses (e.g. JFH-1 or H77D) and more slowly replicating, lipid peroxidation sensitive (LPOS) viruses (e.g. H77S.3 and N.2). In luciferase assays, LPOS HCV strains declined under NS5A inhibitor therapy with much slower kinetics compared to LPOR HCV strains. This difference in rate of decline was not observed for inhibitors of the NS5B RNA-dependent RNA polymerase suggesting that the difference was not simply a consequence of differences in RNA stability. In further analyses, we compared two isoclonal HCV variants: the LPOS H77S.3 and the LPOR H77D that differ only by 12 amino acids. Differences in rate of decline between H77S.3 and H77D following NS5A inhibitor addition were not due to amino acid sequences in NS5A but rather due to a combination of amino acid differences in the non-structural proteins that make up the HCV RC. Mathematical modeling of intracellular HCV RNA dynamics suggested that differences in RC stability (half-lives of 3.5 and 9.9 hours, for H77D and H77S.3, respectively) are responsible for the different kinetics of antiviral suppression between LPOS and LPOR viruses. In nascent RNA capture assays, the rate of RNA synthesis decline following NS5A inhibitor addition was significantly faster for H77D compared to H77S.3 indicating different half-lives of functional RCs.

On the Death Rate of Abortively Infected Cells: Estimation from Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection.

Progressive T cell depletion during chronic human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) infection is a key mechanism that leads to the development of AIDS. Recent studies have suggested that most T cells in the tissue die through pyroptosis triggered by abortive infection, i.e., infection of resting T cells in which HIV failed to complete reverse transcription. However, the contribution of abortive infection to T cell loss and how quickly abortively infected cells die in vivo, key parameters for a quantitative understanding of T cell population dynamics, are not clear. Here, we infected rhesus macaques with simian-human immunodeficiency viruses (SHIV) and followed the dynamics of both plasma SHIV RNA and total cell-associated SHIV DNA. Fitting mathematical models to the data, we estimate that upon infection a majority of CD4+ T cells (approximately 65%, on average) become abortively infected and die at a relatively high rate of 0.27 day-1 (half-life, 2.6 days). This confirms the importance of abortive infection in driving T cell depletion. Further, we find evidence suggesting that an immune response may be restricting viral infection 1 to 3 weeks after infection. Our study serves as a step forward toward a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms driving T cell depletion during HIV infection.IMPORTANCE In HIV-infected patients, progressive CD4+ T cell loss ultimately leads to the development of AIDS. The mechanisms underlying this T cell loss are not clear. Recent experimental data suggest that the majority of CD4+ T cells in tissue die through abortive infection, where the accumulation of incomplete HIV transcripts triggers cell death. To investigate the role of abortive infection in driving CD4+ T cell loss in vivo, we infected macaques with simian-human immunodeficiency viruses (SHIV) and followed the viral kinetics of both plasma RNA and cell-associated DNA during infection. Fitting mathematical models, we estimated that a large fraction of infected cells dies through abortive infection and has a half-life of approximately 2.6 days. Our results provide the first in vivo quantitative estimates of parameters characterizing abortive infection and support the notion that abortive infection represents an important mechanism underlying progressive CD4+ T cell depletion in vivo.