Public health preparedness for the world's largest mass gathering: 2010 World Exposition in Shanghai, China.

The 2010 World Exposition in Shanghai China (Expo) was the largest mass gathering in world history, attracting a record 72 million visitors. More than 190 countries participated in the Expo, along with more than 50 international organizations. The 2010 Expo was six months in duration (May 1 through October 30, 2010), and the size of the venue site comprised 5.28 square kilometers. Great challenges were imposed on the public health system in Shanghai due to the high number and density of visitors, long duration of the event, and other risk factors such as high temperatures, typhoon, etc. As the major metropolitan public health agency in Shanghai, the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention (SCDC) implemented a series of actions in preparing for, and responding to, the potential health impact of the world's largest mass gathering to date, which included partnerships for capacity building, enhancement of internal organizational structure, risk assessment, strengthened surveillance, disaster planning and exercises, laboratory management, vaccination campaign, health education, health intervention, risk communication and mass media surveillance, and technical support for health inspection. The clear-cut organizational structures and job responsibilities, as well as comprehensive operational and scientific preparations, were key elements to ensure the success of the 2010 World Exposition.

The Annual Global Incidence Rate of Extreme Weather Event Disasters Appears Positively Correlated with World GDP, 1961-2020.

OBJECTIVE: This study compared the per capita annual global incidence rate of disasters caused by natural hazards with the annual world real gross domestic product, GDP (per global capita), as reported during 1961 through 2020. METHODS: Sixty (60) values for the world real GDP per global capita (in constant 2015 $USD) were compared to corresponding annual values for global incidence rates for five natural disaster subgroups and then for a total of twelve individual disaster types that comprise the subgroups; each expressed as an annual global incidence rate (in terms of annual incidence per 100,000 persons). Calculations of multiple linear regression, ANOVA, and Pearson's correlation coefficient were performed for comparing population-adjusted values for GDP to corresponding values. RESULTS: Four out of five hydrological and meteorological disasters were found to have a positive correlation with GDP. Results of the analysis revealed a relatively high degree of correlation between world GDP and the annual incidence of flood and storm disasters (P = 6.21 × 10-10 and P = 4.23 × 10-4, respectively). The annual incidence of heat waves and cold weather disasters also appeared to correlate with GDP (P = .002 and P = .019, respectively). In comparison, wet landslides indicated no such correlation (P = .862). No significant associations were found among the seven other individual biological, climatological, and geophysical disasters and GDP. CONCLUSION: The global incidence of four extreme weather (hydrometeorological) disasters appear to be positively associated with world real GDP during 1961-2020. These findings contradict previous postulates that the risk of disaster incidence is inversely associated with the capacity of the population.

Organizational and command aspects for coordinating the public health response to an outbreak of acute renal failure, Republic of Panama, 2006.

The Ministry of Health of Panama (MINSA) received several reports of ill persons who had clinical presentations of acute renal insufficiency or failure during September and October 2006. On 01 October 2006, the MINSA formally asked the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to assist with the investigation. Additional agencies involved in the response included the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Gorgas Institute for Health Studies (GIHS), and the Social Security Health System (SSHS) of Panama. Through a joint effort, the MINSA, CDC, FDA, GIHS, SSHS, and PAHO were able to characterize the illness, identify the etiological agent, identify the population-at-risk, and launch an unprecedented media and social mobilization effort to prevent additional cases.International outbreak responses may require familiarity with basic emergency management principles beyond technical or scientific considerations. The management, logistical capabilities, team interaction, and efficiency of outbreak investigations can be enhanced substantially by having staff already familiar with common operational frameworks for incident responses. This report describes the inter-agency coordination and organizational structure implemented during an international response to identify the cause of an outbreak of acute renal failure in Panama.

Validity of the National Health Security Preparedness Index as a Predictor of Excess COVID-19 Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: This study compared 2019 values for the National Health Security Preparedness Index (NHSPI) with 2020 rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related mortality as reported by the 50 US states and Puerto Rico during the first six months of the US pandemic (March 1 - August 31, 2020). METHODS: Data regarding provisional death counts and estimates of excess deaths for COVID-19 according to state and territory were downloaded from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics website. Reporting included the six-month-long period of March 1 - August 31, 2020. Excess mortality rates were calculated as the number of excess deaths per 100,000 persons in each state population using 2019 US Census Bureau data. Mean values for state and territorial NHSPI domain indices were compared to state and territorial rates of COVID-19-related excess mortality using multiple linear regression, including analysis of variance. Correlations between the 51 state and territorial NHSPI values and corresponding COVID-19 excess mortality rates were calculated using Pearson's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: These calculations revealed a high degree of variance (adjusted r square = 0.02 and 0.25) and poor correlation (P = .16 and .08) among values for the overall NHSPI as compared to low and high estimates of excess COVID-19 mortality rates for 50 US states and Puerto Rico.There was also a high degree of variance (adjusted r square = 0.001 and 0.03) and poor correlation (P values ranging from .09 to .94) for values for the six individual domains of the NHSPI as compared to low and high estimates of excess COVID-19 mortality rates for 50 US states and Puerto Rico. CONCLUSION: The NHSPI does not appear to be a valid predictor of excess COVID-19 mortality rates for 50 US states and Puerto Rico during the first six months of the pandemic.

Measuring the Efficacy of a Pilot Public Health Intervention for Engaging Communities of Puerto Rico to Rapidly Write Hurricane Protection Plans.

OBJECTIVE: The efficacy is measured for a public health intervention related to community-based planning for population protection measures (PPMs; ie, shelter-in-place and evacuation). DESIGN: This is a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) prospective study of intervention efficacy, measured in terms of usability related to effectiveness, efficiency, satisfaction, and degree of community engagement. SETTING: Two municipalities in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico are included. PARTICIPANTS: Community members consisting of individuals; traditional leaders; federal, territorial, and municipal emergency managers; municipal mayors; National Guard; territorial departments of education, health, housing, public works, and transportation; health care; police; Emergency Medical Services; faith-based organizations; nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and the private sector. INTERVENTION: The intervention included four community convenings: one for risk communication; two for plan-writing; and one tabletop exercise (TTX). This study analyzed data collected from the project work plan; participant rosters; participant surveys; workshop outputs; and focus group interviews. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Efficacy was measured in terms of ISO 9241-11, an international standard for usability that includes effectiveness, efficiency, user satisfaction, and "freedom from risk" among users. Degree of engagement was considered an indicator of "freedom from risk," measurable through workshop attendance. RESULTS: Two separate communities drafted and exercised ~60-page-long population protection plans, each within 14.5 hours. Plan-writing workshops completed 100% of plan objectives and activities. Efficiency rates were nearly the same in both communities. Interviews and surveys indicated high degrees of community satisfaction. Engagement was consistent among community members and variable among governmental officials. CONCLUSIONS: Frontline communities have successfully demonstrated the ability to understand the environmental health hazards in their own community; rapidly write consensus-based plans for PPMs; participate in an objective-based TTX; and perform these activities in a bi-lingual setting. This intervention appears to be efficacious for public use in the rapid development of community-based PPMs.

The Epidemiology of Extreme Weather Event Disasters (1969-2018).

INTRODUCTION: This manuscript summarizes the global incidence, exposures, mortality, and morbidity associated with extreme weather event (EWE) disasters over the past 50 years (1969-2018). METHODS: A historical database (1969-2018) was created from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to include all disasters caused by seven EWE hazards (ie, cyclones, droughts, floods, heatwaves, landslides, cold weather, and storms). The annual incidence of EWE hazards and rates of exposure, morbidity, and mortality were calculated. Regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) calculations were performed to evaluate the association between the exposure rate and the hazard incidence rate, as well as the association between morbidity and mortality incidence rates and rates of human exposure and annual EWE incidence. RESULTS: From 1969-2018, 10,009 EWE disasters caused 2,037,415 deaths and 3,998,466 cases of disease. A reported 7,350,276,440 persons required immediate assistance. Floods and storms were the most common. Most (89%) of EWE-related disaster mortality was caused by storms, droughts, and floods. Nearly all (96%) of EWE-related disaster morbidity was caused by cold weather, floods, and storms. Regression analysis revealed strong evidence (R2 = 0.88) that the annual incidence of EWE disasters is increasing world-wide, and ANOVA calculations identified an association between human exposure rates and hazard incidence (P value = .01). No significant trends were noted for rates of exposure, morbidity, or mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The annual incidence of EWEs appears to be increasing. The incidence of EWEs also appears to be associated with rates of human exposure. However, there is insufficient evidence of an associated increase in health risk or human exposures to EWEs over time.

A Comparison of US Federal Government Spending for Research and Development Related to Public Health Preparedness Capabilities, 2008-2017.

OBJECTIVE: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed 15 National Public Health Emergency and Preparedness Response Capabilities (NPHPRCs) to serve as national standards for health-related core capabilities. The objective of this study is to determine the level of federal funding allocated for research related to NPHPRCs during 2008-2017. METHODS: An online search of http://www.USAspending.gov was performed to identify federal awards, grants, contracts from 2008-2017 related to research associated with NPHPRCs. Inclusion criteria were identifiable as research and disaster-related; US-based; and specific reference to any of the NPHPRCs. A panel of 3 experts reviewed each entry for inclusion. RESULTS: The search identified 15 278 transactions representing US $29.2 billion in awards. After exclusions, 93 entries were found to be related to NPHPRCs, averaging US $2 783 136 annually. Funding notably dropped to US $168 684 in 2010 and ceased entirely in 2016. Ten (67%) of NPHPRCs received funding. Eighty-percent of funding focused on 4 capabilities. Three federal agencies funded 80% of research. Sixteen (24%) of the 47 recipients received 80% of all funding. CONCLUSION: US federal investments in research and development related to NPHPRCs have been highly variable over the past decade. One-third of NPHPRCs receive no funding. There are notable gaps in funding, content, continuity, and scope of participation.

Report from the COVID-19 Virtual Summit, Disaster Experts Speak Out, March 31, 2020.

This article captures the webinar narrative on March 31, 2020 of four expert panelists addressing three questions on the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Each panelist was selected for their unique personal expertise, ranging from front-line emergency physicians from multiple countries, an international media personality, former director of the US Strategic National Stockpile, and one of the foremost international experts in disaster medicine and public policy. The forum was moderated by one of the most widely recognized disaster medical experts in the world. The four panelists were asked three questions regarding the current pandemic as follows:1.What do you see as a particular issue of concern during the current pandemic?2.What do you see as a particular strength during the current pandemic?3.If you could change one thing about the way that the pandemic response is occurring, what would you change?

US Governmental Spending for Disaster-Related Research, 2011-2016: Characterizing the State of Science Funding Across 5 Professional Disciplines.

OBJECTIVE: Disaster-related research funding in the United States has not been described. This study characterizes Federal funding for disaster-related research for 5 professional disciplines: medicine, public health, social science, engineering, emergency management. METHODS: An online key word search was performed using the website, www.USAspending.gov, to identify federal awards, grants, and contracts during 2011-2016. A panel of experts then reviewed each entry for inclusion. RESULTS: The search identified 9145 entries, of which 262 (3%) met inclusion criteria. Over 6 years, the Federal Government awarded US $69 325 130 for all disaster-related research. Total funding levels quadrupled in the first 3 years and then halved in the last 3 years. Half of the funding was for engineering, 3 times higher than social sciences and emergency management and 5 times higher than public health and medicine. Ten (11%) institutions received 52% of all funding. The search returned entries for only 12 of the 35 pre-identified disaster-related capabilities; 6 of 12 capabilities appear to have received no funding for at least 2 years. CONCLUSION: US federal funding for disaster-related research is limited and highly variable during 2011-2016. There are no clear reasons for apportionment. There appears to be an absence of prioritization. There does not appear to be a strategy for alignment of research with national disaster policies.

Characterizing the Current State of Training Courses Available to US Disaster Professionals.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to characterize US-based disaster training courses available to disaster response and disaster health professionals. Its purpose is to better inform policies and decision-making regarding workforce and professional development to improve performance. METHODS: Courses were identified from 4 inventories of courses: (1) National Library of Medicine Disaster Lit database; (2) TRAIN National Learning Network; (3) Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Preparedness Course Catalog; and (4) Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Centers. An online search used 30 disaster-related key words. Data included the course title, description, target audience, and delivery modality. Levels of learning, target capability, and function were categorized by 3 expert reviewers. Descriptive statistics were used. RESULTS: There were 3662 trainings: 2380 (65%) for professionals (53% for public health); 83% of the courses were distance learning, with 16% via classroom. Half of all trainings focused on 3 of 37 disaster capabilities and 38% of them were related to chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives (CBRNE). The educational approach was knowledge-based for all courses and 99.6% imparted only lower levels of learning. CONCLUSION: Despite thousands of courses available, there remain significant gaps in target audience, subject matter content, educational approaches, and delivery modalities, particularly for health and public health professionals.

Defining Disaster-Related Health Risk: A Primer for Prevention.

Effective disaster risk management requires not only management of the immediate problem (disaster-related injuries and disease), but also of the patient's risk factors and of the underlying health determinants. This requires an accurate and well-validated process for assessment of the determinants of disease.Ideally, disaster risk management is based on a prioritization process. Once hazards have been identified, they are assessed in terms of the probability and impact in terms of losses. The hazards associated with the greatest probability and impact loss are prioritized. In addition to prioritization, risk assessment also offers a process for ongoing research involving the interaction of health determinants, risk, and protective factors that may contribute to future adverse health outcomes.Recently, assessments of health risk have become an integral part of local, state, and national emergency preparedness programs. One of the strengths of these assessments is the convening of multi-sectoral input for public health decision making and plans. However, this diversity of input also creates challenges in development of a common nomenclature for assessing and communicating the characteristics of this risk. Definitions remain ambiguous for many of the key indicators of disaster risk, especially those applied to health risk.This report is intended as a primer for defining disaster-related health risk. This framework is discussed within a nomenclature that is consistent with international standards for risk management and public health prevention. KeimM. Defining disaster-related health risk: a primer for prevention. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(3):308-316.

Assessing Disaster-Related Health Risk: Appraisal for Prevention.

Risk assessment is a key component of public health interventions intended to prevent or reduce adverse health effects. Health risk assessments are widely used to guide public health programming, as well as multi-sectoral studies of environmental impact and developmental decision making. Analytical risk assessment is a well-validated tool that is routinely used among certain subsets of public health, including those for chemical, radiological, and microbiological risk assessment. However, this is not the case for risk assessments involving disasters in general, or more specifically, for public health emergencies involving environmental hazards (eg, technological, hydro-meteorological, and seismic).There remains a need for a reproducible, well-validated, disaster-related health risk assessment process that is suitable for accommodating the current gaps in certainty. This report is intended to offer a practical framework and nomenclature for assessing disaster-related health risk that is: (1) accurate; (2) based upon historical evidence; (3) quantifiable in public health terms; and (4) inclusive of uncertainty. KeimM. Assessing disaster-related health risk: appraisal for prevention. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(3):317-325.

Managing Disaster-Related Health Risk: A Process for Prevention.

In 1994, the first World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held in Yokohama, Japan affirmed that "Disaster prevention, mitigation, and preparedness are better than disaster response in achieving the goals and objectives of the decade. Disaster response alone is not sufficient, as it yields only temporary results in a very high cost." Since then, disaster risk reduction has become the mainstay for international development related to disasters.According to the National Research Council (Washington, DC USA), "Disaster research, which has focused historically on emergency response and recovery, is incomplete without the simultaneous study of the societal hazards and risks associated with disasters, which includes data on the vulnerability of people living in hazard prone areas." Despite over 25 years of global policy development, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (Washington, DC USA) recently noted that, "while some disaster management and public health preparedness programming may be viewed as tangentially related, a multi-sectoral and inter-disciplinary national platform for coordination and policy guidance on involving disaster risk reduction in the United States does not exist." Today, one of the world's "seven targets in seven years" as agreed upon in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is to substantially reduce global mortality by 2030. Significant reductions in health risk (including mortality) have historically required a comprehensive approach for disease management that includes both a preventive and a curative approach. Disaster risk management has arisen as a primary means for the world's populations to address disaster losses, including those related to health. Prevention has been proven as an effective approach for managing health risk. This report describes the role of disease prevention in managing health risk due to disasters. KeimM. Managing disaster-related health risk: a process for prevention. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(3):326-334.

The first 24 hours of the World Trade Center attacks of 2001--the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention emergency phase response.

On 11 September 2001, terrorists hijacked two passenger planes and crashed them into the two towers of the World Trade Center (WTC) in New York City. These synchronized attacks were the largest act of terrorism ever committed on US soil. The impacts, fires, and subsequent collapse of the towers killed and injured thousands of people. Within minutes after the first plane crashed into the WTC, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, initiated one of the largest public health responses in its history. Staff of the CDC provided technical assistance on several key public health issues. During the acute phase of the event, CDC personnel assisted with: (1) assessing hospital capacity; (2) establishing injury and disease surveillance activities; (3) deploying emergency coordinators/liaisons to facilitate inter-agency coordination with the affected jurisdictions; and (4) arranging rapid delivery of emergency medical supplies, therapeutics, and personal protective equipment. This incident highlighted the need for adequate planning for all potential hazards and the importance of interagency and interdepartmental coordination in preparing for and responding to public health emergencies.

Disaster Education: A Survey Study to Analyze Disaster Medicine Training in Emergency Medicine Residency Programs in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The increase in natural and man-made disasters occurring worldwide places Emergency Medicine (EM) physicians at the forefront of responding to these crises. Despite the growing interest in Disaster Medicine, it is unclear if resident training has been able to include these educational goals. Hypothesis This study surveys EM residencies in the United States to assess the level of education in Disaster Medicine, to identify competencies least and most addressed, and to highlight effective educational models already in place. METHODS: The authors distributed an online survey of multiple-choice and free-response questions to EM residency Program Directors in the United States between February 7 and September 24, 2014. Questions assessed residency background and details on specific Disaster Medicine competencies addressed during training. RESULTS: Out of 183 programs, 75 (41%) responded to the survey and completed all required questions. Almost all programs reported having some level of Disaster Medicine training in their residency. The most common Disaster Medicine educational competencies taught were patient triage and decontamination. The least commonly taught competencies were volunteer management, working with response teams, and special needs populations. The most commonly identified methods to teach Disaster Medicine were drills and lectures/seminars. CONCLUSION: There are a variety of educational tools used to teach Disaster Medicine in EM residencies today, with a larger focus on the use of lectures and hospital drills. There is no indication of a uniform educational approach across all residencies. The results of this survey demonstrate an opportunity for the creation of a standardized model for resident education in Disaster Medicine. Sarin RR , Cattamanchi S , Alqahtani A , Aljohani M , Keim M , Ciottone GR . Disaster education: a survey study to analyze disaster medicine training in emergency medicine residency programs in the United States. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(4):368-373.

Terrorism involving cyanide: the prospect of improving preparedness in the prehospital setting.

The potential for domestic or international terrorism involving cyanide has not diminished and in fact may have increased in recent years. This paper discusses cyanide as a terrorist weapon and the current state of readiness for a cyanide attack in the United States. Many of the factors that render cyanide appealing to terrorists are difficult to modify sufficiently to decrease the probability of a cyanide attack. For example, the relative ease with which cyanide can be used as a weapon without special training, its versatile means of delivery to intended victims, and to a large degree, its ready availability cannot be significantly modified through preparedness efforts. On the other hand, the impact of an attack can be mitigated through preparedness measures designed to minimize the physical, psychological, and social consequences of cyanide exposure. Although the nation remains ill-equipped to manage a cyanide disaster, significant progress is being realized in some aspects of preparedness. Hydroxocobalamin-a cyanide antidote that may be appropriate for use in the prehospital setting for presumptive cases of cyanide poisoning-currently is under development for potential introduction in the US. If it becomes available in the US, hydroxocobalamin could enhance the role of the prehospital emergency responder in providing care to victims of a cyanide disaster. Additional progress is required in the areas of ensuring local and regional availability of antidotal treatment and supportive interventions, educating emergency healthcare providers about cyanide poisoning and its management, and raising public awareness of the potential for a cyanide attack and how to respond.

Lack of hospital preparedness for chemical terrorism in a major US city: 1996-2000.

INTRODUCTION: The [US] Nunn-Lugar-Domenici Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Act (the WMD Act of 1996) heralded a new wave of spending by the federal government on counter-terrorism efforts. Between 1996 and 2000, the United States of America (US) federal government allocated large sums of funding to the States for bioterrorism preparedness. Distribution of these funds between institutions involved in first-responder care (e.g., fire and safety departments) and hospitals was uneven. It is unknown whether these additional funds had an impact on the level of hospital preparedness for managing mass casualties involving hazardous materials at the local level, including potential terrorist attacks with chemical agents. OBJECTIVES: (1) To compare 1996 and 2000 measures of preparedness among hospitals of a major US metropolitan area for dealing with hazardous material casualties, including terrorism that involved the use of weapons of mass destruction; and (2) To provide guidance for the improvement of emergency preparedness and response in US hospitals. METHODS: In July 1996 and again in July 2000,21 hospitals in one major US city were surveyed by questionnaire. A survey was used to assess the amounts of antidote stocks held available for treatment of casualties caused by toxic chemical agents and institutional response capabilities including the number of showers for decontaminating patients, the level of worker protection, and the number of staff trained to decontaminate patients. RESULTS: Hospital preparedness for treating and decontaminating patients exposed to toxic chemical agents was inadequate in 1996 and in 2000. From 1996 to 2000, there was no statistically significant change in the lack of hospital preparedness for stocking of nerve agent and cyanide antidotes. Capacity for decontamination of patients, which included appropriate hazardous material infrastructure and trained staff, generally was unimproved from 1996 to 2000 with the exception of an increase of nearly 30% in hospitals with at least one decontamination shower facility. CONCLUSION: Hospitals surveyed in this study were poorly prepared to manage chemical emergency incidents, including terrorism. This lack of hospital preparedness did not change significantly between 1996 and 2000 despite increased funds allocated to bioterrorism preparedness at the local level.

Emergency health and risk management in sub-saharan Africa: a lesson from the embassy bombings in Tanzania and Kenya.

In 1998, terrorists simultaneously bombed United States Embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Nairobi, Kenya. The local response to these bombings was unorganized and ad hoc, indicating the need for basic disaster preparedness and improvement of emergency management capabilities in both countries. In this context, risk and risk management are defined and are related to the health hazards affecting Tanzanians and Kenyans. In addition, the growing number of injuries in Tanzania is addressed and the relationship between risk management and injury is explored. Also, an emergency medicine-based strategy for injury control and prevention is proposed. Implications of implementing such a protocol in developing nations also are discussed.

A dynamic process of health risk assessment for business continuity management during the World Exposition Shanghai, China, 2010.

Reports of health issues related to mass gatherings around the world have indicated a potential for public health and medical emergencies to occur on a scale that could place a significant impact on business continuity for national and international organisations. This paper describes a risk assessment process for business continuity management that was performed as part of the planning efforts related to the World Expo 2010 Shanghai China (Expo), the world's largest mass gathering to date. Altogether, 73 million visitors attended the Expo, generating over US$2bn of revenue. During 2008 to 2010, the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention performed a dynamic series of four disaster risk assessments before and during the Expo. The purpose of this assessment process was to identify, analyse and evaluate risks for public health security during different stages of the Expo. This paper describes an overview of the novel approach for this multiple and dynamic process of assessment of health security risk for ensuring business continuity.