Systems biology and in vitro validation identifies family with sequence similarity 129 member A (FAM129A) as an asthma steroid response modulator.

BACKGROUND: Variation in response to the most commonly used class of asthma controller medication, inhaled corticosteroids, presents a serious challenge in asthma management, particularly for steroid-resistant patients with little or no response to treatment. OBJECTIVE: We applied a systems biology approach to primary clinical and genomic data to identify and validate genes that modulate steroid response in asthmatic children. METHODS: We selected 104 inhaled corticosteroid-treated asthmatic non-Hispanic white children and determined a steroid responsiveness endophenotype (SRE) using observations of 6 clinical measures over 4 years. We modeled each subject's cellular steroid response using data from a previously published study of immortalized lymphoblastoid cell lines under dexamethasone (DEX) and sham treatment. We integrated SRE with immortalized lymphoblastoid cell line DEX responses and genotypes to build a genome-scale network using the Reverse Engineering, Forward Simulation modeling framework, identifying 7 genes modulating SRE. RESULTS: Three of these genes were functionally validated by using a stable nuclear factor κ-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells luciferase reporter in A549 human lung epithelial cells, IL-1ß cytokine stimulation, and DEX treatment. By using small interfering RNA transfection, knockdown of family with sequence similarity 129 member A (FAM129A) produced a reduction in steroid treatment response (P < .001). CONCLUSION: With this systems-based approach, we have shown that FAM129A is associated with variation in clinical asthma steroid responsiveness and that FAM129A modulates steroid responsiveness in lung epithelial cells.

Causal modeling using network ensemble simulations of genetic and gene expression data predicts genes involved in rheumatoid arthritis.

Tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) is a key regulator of inflammation and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). TNF-α blocker therapies can be very effective for a substantial number of patients, but fail to work in one third of patients who show no or minimal response. It is therefore necessary to discover new molecular intervention points involved in TNF-α blocker treatment of rheumatoid arthritis patients. We describe a data analysis strategy for predicting gene expression measures that are critical for rheumatoid arthritis using a combination of comprehensive genotyping, whole blood gene expression profiles and the component clinical measures of the arthritis Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) score. Two separate network ensembles, each comprised of 1024 networks, were built from molecular measures from subjects before and 14 weeks after treatment with TNF-α blocker. The network ensemble built from pre-treated data captures TNF-α dependent mechanistic information, while the ensemble built from data collected under TNF-α blocker treatment captures TNF-α independent mechanisms. In silico simulations of targeted, personalized perturbations of gene expression measures from both network ensembles identify transcripts in three broad categories. Firstly, 22 transcripts are identified to have new roles in modulating the DAS28 score; secondly, there are 6 transcripts that could be alternative targets to TNF-α blocker therapies, including CD86--a component of the signaling axis targeted by Abatacept (CTLA4-Ig), and finally, 59 transcripts that are predicted to modulate the count of tender or swollen joints but not sufficiently enough to have a significant impact on DAS28.

Bayesian network analysis of panomic biological big data identifies the importance of triglyceride-rich LDL in atherosclerosis development.

Introduction: We sought to explore biomarkers of coronary atherosclerosis in an unbiased fashion. Methods: We analyzed 665 patients (mean ± SD age, 56 ± 11 years; 47% male) from the GLOBAL clinical study (NCT01738828). Cases were defined by the presence of any discernable atherosclerotic plaque based on comprehensive cardiac computed tomography (CT). De novo Bayesian networks built out of 37,000 molecular measurements and 99 conventional biomarkers per patient examined the potential causality of specific biomarkers. Results: Most highly ranked biomarkers by gradient boosting were interleukin-6, symmetric dimethylarginine, LDL-triglycerides [LDL-TG], apolipoprotein B48, palmitoleic acid, small dense LDL, alkaline phosphatase, and asymmetric dimethylarginine. In Bayesian analysis, LDL-TG was directly linked to atherosclerosis in over 95% of the ensembles. Genetic variants in the genomic region encoding hepatic lipase (LIPC) were associated with LIPC gene expression, LDL-TG levels and with atherosclerosis. Discussion: Triglyceride-rich LDL particles, which can now be routinely measured with a direct homogenous assay, may play an important role in atherosclerosis development. Clinical trial registration: GLOBAL clinical study (Genetic Loci and the Burden of Atherosclerotic Lesions); [https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01738828?term=NCT01738828&rank=1], identifier [NCT01738828].

Application of Machine Learning Models to Evaluate Hypoglycemia Risk in Type 2 Diabetes.

INTRODUCTION: To identify predictors of hypoglycemia and five other clinical and economic outcomes among treated patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) using machine learning and structured data from a large, geographically diverse administrative claims database. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study design was applied to Optum Clinformatics claims data indexed on first antidiabetic prescription date. A hypothesis-free, Bayesian machine learning analytics platform (GNS Healthcare REFS™: Reverse Engineering and Forward Simulation) was used to build ensembles of generalized linear models to predict six outcomes defined in patients' 1-year post-index claims history, including hypoglycemia, antidiabetic class persistence, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) target attainment, HbA1c change, T2D-related inpatient admissions, and T2D-related medical costs. A unified set of 388 variables defined in patients' 1-year pre-index claims history constituted the set of predictors for all REFS models. RESULTS: The derivation cohort comprised 453,487 patients with a T2D diagnosis between 2014 and 2017. Patients with comorbid conditions had the highest risk of hypoglycemia, including those with prior hypoglycemia (odds ratio [OR] = 25.61) and anemia (OR = 1.29). Other identified risk factors included insulin (OR = 2.84) and sulfonylurea use (OR = 1.80). Biguanide use (OR = 0.75), high blood glucose (> 125 mg/dL vs. < 100 mg/dL, OR = 0.47; 100-125 mg/dL vs. < 100 mg/dL, OR = 0.53), and missing blood glucose test (OR = 0.40) were associated with reduced risk of hypoglycemia. Area under the curve (AUC) of the hypoglycemia model in held-out testing data was 0.77. Patients in the top 15% of predicted hypoglycemia risk constituted 50% of observed hypoglycemic events, 26% of T2D-related inpatient admissions, and 24% of all T2D-related medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models built within high-dimensional, real-world data can predict patients at risk of clinical outcomes with a high degree of accuracy, while uncovering important factors associated with outcomes that can guide clinical practice. Targeted interventions towards these patients may help reduce hypoglycemia risk and thereby favorably impact associated economic outcomes relevant to key stakeholders.

A systems biology dynamical model of mammalian G1 cell cycle progression.

The current dogma of G(1) cell-cycle progression relies on growth factor-induced increase of cyclin D:Cdk4/6 complex activity to partially inactivate pRb by phosphorylation and to sequester p27(Kip1)-triggering activation of cyclin E:Cdk2 complexes that further inactivate pRb. pRb oscillates between an active, hypophosphorylated form associated with E2F transcription factors in early G(1) phase and an inactive, hyperphosphorylated form in late G(1), S and G(2)/M phases. However, under constant growth factor stimulation, cells show constitutively active cyclin D:Cdk4/6 throughout the cell cycle and thereby exclude cyclin D:Cdk4/6 inactivation of pRb. To address this paradox, we developed a mathematical model of G(1) progression using physiological expression and activity profiles from synchronized cells exposed to constant growth factors and included a metabolically responsive, activating modifier of cyclin E:Cdk2. Our mathematical model accurately simulates G(1) progression, recapitulates observations from targeted gene deletion studies and serves as a foundation for development of therapeutics targeting G(1) cell-cycle progression.

Achieving confidence in mechanism for drug discovery and development.

Decisions in drug development are made on the basis of determinations of cause and effect from experimental observations that span drug development phases. Despite advances in our powers of observation, the ability to determine compound mechanisms from large-scale multi-omic technologies continues to be a major bottleneck. This can only be overcome by utilizing computational learning methods that identify from compound data the circuits and connections between drug-affected molecular constituents and physiological observables. The marriage of multi-omics technologies with network inference approaches will provide missing insights needed to improve drug development success rates.

Bayesian Network Inference Modeling Identifies TRIB1 as a Novel Regulator of Cell-Cycle Progression and Survival in Cancer Cells.

Molecular networks governing responses to targeted therapies in cancer cells are complex dynamic systems that demonstrate nonintuitive behaviors. We applied a novel computational strategy to infer probabilistic causal relationships between network components based on gene expression. We constructed a model comprised of an ensemble of networks using multidimensional data from cell line models of cell-cycle arrest caused by inhibition of MEK1/2. Through simulation of a reverse-engineered Bayesian network model, we generated predictions of G1-S transition. The model identified known components of the cell-cycle machinery, such as CCND1, CCNE2, and CDC25A, as well as revealed novel regulators of G1-S transition, IER2, TRIB1, TRIM27. Experimental validation of model predictions confirmed 10 of 12 predicted genes to have a role in G1-S progression. Further analysis showed that TRIB1 regulated the cyclin D1 promoter via NFκB and AP-1 sites and sensitized cells to TRAIL-induced apoptosis. In clinical specimens of breast cancer, TRIB1 levels correlated with expression of NFκB and its target genes (IL8, CSF2), and TRIB1 copy number and expression were predictive of clinical outcome. Together, our results establish a critical role of TRIB1 in cell cycle and survival that is mediated via the modulation of NFκB signaling. Cancer Res; 77(7); 1575-85. ©2017 AACR.

Large-scale identification of clinical and genetic predictors of motor progression in patients with newly diagnosed Parkinson's disease: a longitudinal cohort study and validation.

BACKGROUND: Better understanding and prediction of progression of Parkinson's disease could improve disease management and clinical trial design. We aimed to use longitudinal clinical, molecular, and genetic data to develop predictive models, compare potential biomarkers, and identify novel predictors for motor progression in Parkinson's disease. We also sought to assess the use of these models in the design of treatment trials in Parkinson's disease. METHODS: A Bayesian multivariate predictive inference platform was applied to data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) study (NCT01141023). We used genetic data and baseline molecular and clinical variables from patients with Parkinson's disease and healthy controls to construct an ensemble of models to predict the annual rate of change in combined scores from the Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) parts II and III. We tested our overall explanatory power, as assessed by the coefficient of determination (R2), and replicated novel findings in an independent clinical cohort from the Longitudinal and Biomarker Study in Parkinson's disease (LABS-PD; NCT00605163). The potential utility of these models for clinical trial design was quantified by comparing simulated randomised placebo-controlled trials within the out-of-sample LABS-PD cohort. FINDINGS: 117 healthy controls and 312 patients with Parkinson's disease from the PPMI study were available for analysis, and 317 patients with Parkinson's disease from LABS-PD were available for validation. Our model ensemble showed strong performance within the PPMI cohort (five-fold cross-validated R2 41%, 95% CI 35-47) and significant-albeit reduced-performance in the LABS-PD cohort (R2 9%, 95% CI 4-16). Individual predictive features identified from PPMI data were confirmed in the LABS-PD cohort. These included significant replication of higher baseline MDS-UPDRS motor score, male sex, and increased age, as well as a novel Parkinson's disease-specific epistatic interaction, all indicative of faster motor progression. Genetic variation was the most useful predictive marker of motor progression (2·9%, 95% CI 1·5-4·3). CSF biomarkers at baseline showed a more modest (0·3%, 95% CI 0·1-0·5) but still significant effect on prediction of motor progression. The simulations (n=5000) showed that incorporating the predicted rates of motor progression (as assessed by the annual change in MDS-UPDRS score) into the final models of treatment effect reduced the variability in the study outcome, allowing significant differences to be detected at sample sizes up to 20% smaller than in naive trials. INTERPRETATION: Our model ensemble confirmed established and identified novel predictors of Parkinson's disease motor progression. Improvement of existing prognostic models through machine-learning approaches should benefit trial design and evaluation, as well as clinical disease monitoring and treatment. FUNDING: Michael J Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.

A Bayesian mathematical model of motor and cognitive outcomes in Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: There are few established predictors of the clinical course of PD. Prognostic markers would be useful for clinical care and research. OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of long-term motor and cognitive outcomes and rate of progression in PD. METHODS: Newly diagnosed PD participants were followed for 7 years in a prospective study, conducted at 55 centers in the United States and Canada. Analyses were conducted in 244 participants with complete demographic, clinical, genetic, and dopamine transporter imaging data. Machine learning dynamic Bayesian graphical models were used to identify and simulate predictors and outcomes. The outcomes rate of cognition changes are assessed by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment scores, and rate of motor changes are assessed by UPDRS part-III. RESULTS: The most robust and consistent longitudinal predictors of cognitive function included older age, baseline Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) parts I and II, Schwab and England activities of daily living scale, striatal dopamine transporter binding, and SNP rs11724635 in the gene BST1. The most consistent predictor of UPDRS part III was baseline level of activities of daily living (part II). Key findings were replicated using long-term data from an independent cohort study. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline function near the time of Parkinson's disease diagnosis, as measured by activities of daily living, is a consistent predictor of long-term motor and cognitive outcomes. Additional predictors identified may further characterize the expected course of Parkinson's disease and suggest mechanisms underlying disease progression. The prognostic model developed in this study can be used to simulate the effects of the prognostic variables on motor and cognitive outcomes, and can be replicated and refined with data from independent longitudinal studies.

An integrated approach for inference and mechanistic modeling for advancing drug development.

An important challenge facing researchers in drug development is how to translate multi-omic measurements into biological insights that will help advance drugs through the clinic. Computational biology strategies are a promising approach for systematically capturing the effect of a given drug on complex molecular networks and on human physiology. This article discusses a two-pronged strategy for inferring biological interactions from large-scale multi-omic measurements and accounting for known biology via mechanistic dynamical simulations of pathways, cells, and organ- and tissue level models. These approaches are already playing a role in driving drug development by providing a rational and systematic computational framework.