Strong claims and weak evidence: reassessing the predictive validity of the IAT.

The authors reanalyzed data from 2 influential studies-A. R. McConnell and J. M. Leibold and J. C. Ziegert and P. J. Hanges-that explore links between implicit bias and discriminatory behavior and that have been invoked to support strong claims about the predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test. In both of these studies, the inclusion of race Implicit Association Test scores in regression models reduced prediction errors by only tiny amounts, and Implicit Association Test scores did not permit prediction of individual-level behaviors. Furthermore, the results were not robust when the impact of rater reliability, statistical specifications, and/or outliers were taken into account, and reanalysis of A. R. McConnell & J. M. Leibold (2001) revealed a pattern of behavior consistent with a pro-Black behavioral bias, rather than the anti-Black bias suggested in the original study.

Are mental health insurance mandates effective? Evidence from suicides.

Many states in the US have passed laws mandating insurance companies to provide or offer some form of mental health benefits. These laws presumably lower the price of obtaining mental health services for many adults, and as a result, might improve health outcomes. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of mental health insurance mandates by examining the influence of mandates on adult suicides, which are strongly correlated with mental illness. Data on completed suicides in each state for the period 1981-2000 are analyzed. Ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares results show that mental health mandates are not effective in reducing suicide rates.

The Institute of Medicine report: too quick to diagnose bias.

The Institute of Medicine report, Unequal Treatment: Confronting Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care, claims that medical studies document a systematic causal relationship between race and disparities in health inputs and outcomes among individuals of different races. This article argues that the majority of studies are not powerful enough to establish a causal link, since they do not sufficiently control for differences among patients that happen to correlate with race, and it outlines a powerful audit study that could isolate any effect of race on health care decisions. Even if there are race-based disparities in health inputs, evaluations of welfare and policy prescriptions should be based on health outcomes, since the relationship between care and health is, at least in some cases, weak.

The effect of abortion legalization on sexual behavior: evidence from sexually transmitted diseases.

Unwanted pregnancy represents a major cost of sexual activity. When abortion was legalized in a number of states in 1969 and 1970 (and nationally in 1973), this cost was reduced. We predict that abortion legalization generated incentives leading to an increase in sexual activity, accompanied by an increase in sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Using Centers for Disease Control data on the incidence of gonorrhea and syphilis by state, we test the hypothesis that abortion legalization led to an increase in sexually transmitted diseases. We find that gonorrhea and syphilis incidences are significantly and positively correlated with abortion legalization. Further, we find a divergence in STD rates among early legalizing states and late legalizing states starting in 1970 and a subsequent convergence after the Roe v. Wade decision, indicating that the relation between STDs and abortion is casual. Abortion legalization accounts for about one-fourth of the average disease incidence.