Prediction of adult asthma risk in early childhood using novel adult asthma predictive risk scores.

BACKGROUND: Numerous risk scores have been developed to predict childhood asthma. However, they may not predict asthma beyond childhood. We aim to create childhood risk scores that predict development and persistence of asthma up to young adult life. METHODS: The Isle of Wight Birth Cohort (n = 1456) was prospectively assessed up to 26 years of age. Asthma predictive scores were developed based on factors during the first 4 years, using logistic regression and tested for sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of asthma at (i) 18 and (ii) 26 years, and persistent asthma (PA) (iii) at 10 and 18 years, and (iv) at 10, 18 and 26 years. Models were internally and externally validated. RESULTS: Four models were generated for prediction of each asthma outcome. ASthma PredIctive Risk scorE (ASPIRE)-1: a 2-factor model (recurrent wheeze [RW] and positive skin prick test [+SPT] at 4 years) for asthma at 18 years (sensitivity: 0.49, specificity: 0.80, AUC: 0.65). ASPIRE-2: a 3-factor model (RW, +SPT and maternal rhinitis) for asthma at 26 years (sensitivity: 0.60, specificity: 0.79, AUC: 0.73). ASPIRE-3: a 3-factor model (RW, +SPT and eczema at 4 years) for PA-18 (sensitivity: 0.63, specificity: 0.87, AUC: 0.77). ASPIRE-4: a 3-factor model (RW, +SPT at 4 years and recurrent chest infection at 2 years) for PA-26 (sensitivity: 0.68, specificity: 0.87, AUC: 0.80). ASPIRE-1 and ASPIRE-3 scores were replicated externally. Further assessments indicated that ASPIRE-1 can be used in place of ASPIRE-2-4 with same predictive accuracy. CONCLUSION: ASPIRE predicts persistent asthma up to young adult life.

Prediction models for childhood asthma: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The inability to objectively diagnose childhood asthma before age five often results in both under-treatment and over-treatment of asthma in preschool children. Prediction tools for estimating a child's risk of developing asthma by school-age could assist physicians in early asthma care for preschool children. This review aimed to systematically identify and critically appraise studies which either developed novel or updated existing prediction models for predicting school-age asthma. METHODS: Three databases (MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science Core Collection) were searched up to July 2019 to identify studies utilizing information from children ≤5 years of age to predict asthma in school-age children (6-13 years). Validation studies were evaluated as a secondary objective. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies describing the development of 26 predictive models published between 2000 and 2019 were identified. Models were either regression-based (n = 21) or utilized machine learning approaches (n = 5). Nine studies conducted validations of six regression-based models. Fifteen (out of 21) models required additional clinical tests. Overall model performance, assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), ranged between 0.66 and 0.87. Models demonstrated moderate ability to either rule in or rule out asthma development, but not both. Where external validation was performed, models demonstrated modest generalizability (AUC range: 0.62-0.83). CONCLUSION: Existing prediction models demonstrated moderate predictive performance, often with modest generalizability when independently validated. Limitations of traditional methods have shown to impair predictive accuracy and resolution. Exploration of novel methods such as machine learning approaches may address these limitations for future school-age asthma prediction.

European and multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of atopic dermatitis highlights importance of systemic immune regulation.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common inflammatory skin condition and prior genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 71 associated loci. In the current study we conducted the largest AD GWAS to date (discovery N = 1,086,394, replication N = 3,604,027), combining previously reported cohorts with additional available data. We identified 81 loci (29 novel) in the European-only analysis (which all replicated in a separate European analysis) and 10 additional loci in the multi-ancestry analysis (3 novel). Eight variants from the multi-ancestry analysis replicated in at least one of the populations tested (European, Latino or African), while two may be specific to individuals of Japanese ancestry. AD loci showed enrichment for DNAse I hypersensitivity and eQTL associations in blood. At each locus we prioritised candidate genes by integrating multi-omic data. The implicated genes are predominantly in immune pathways of relevance to atopic inflammation and some offer drug repurposing opportunities.

Integration of Genomic Risk Scores to Improve the Prediction of Childhood Asthma Diagnosis.

Genome-wide and epigenome-wide association studies have identified genetic variants and differentially methylated nucleotides associated with childhood asthma. Incorporation of such genomic data may improve performance of childhood asthma prediction models which use phenotypic and environmental data. Using genome-wide genotype and methylation data at birth from the Isle of Wight Birth Cohort (n = 1456), a polygenic risk score (PRS), and newborn (nMRS) and childhood (cMRS) methylation risk scores, were developed to predict childhood asthma diagnosis. Each risk score was integrated with two previously published childhood asthma prediction models (CAPE and CAPP) and were validated in the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study. Individually, the genomic risk scores demonstrated modest-to-moderate discriminative performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC: PRS = 0.64, nMRS = 0.55, cMRS = 0.54), and their integration only marginally improved the performance of the CAPE (AUC: 0.75 vs. 0.71) and CAPP models (AUC: 0.84 vs. 0.82). The limited predictive performance of each genomic risk score individually and their inability to substantially improve upon the performance of the CAPE and CAPP models suggests that genetic and epigenetic predictors of the broad phenotype of asthma are unlikely to have clinical utility. Hence, further studies predicting specific asthma endotypes are warranted.

MicroRNAs-A Promising Tool for Asthma Diagnosis and Severity Assessment: A Systematic Review.

Micro RNAs (miRNAs) are short, non-coding RNAs (Ribonucleic acids) with regulatory functions that could prove useful as biomarkers for asthma diagnosis and asthma severity-risk stratification. The objective of this systematic review is to identify panels of miRNAs that can be used to support asthma diagnosis and severity-risk assessment. Three databases (Medline, Embase, and SCOPUS) were searched up to 15 September 2020 to identify studies reporting differential expression of specific miRNAs in the tissues of adults and children with asthma. Studies reporting miRNAs associations in animal models that were also studied in humans were included in this review. We identified 75 studies that met our search criteria. Of these, 66 studies reported more than 200 miRNAs that are differentially expressed in asthma patients when compared to non-asthmatic controls. In addition, 16 studies reported 17 miRNAs that are differentially expressed with differences in asthma severity. We were able to construct two panels of miRNAs that are expressed in blood and can serve as core panels to further investigate the practicality and efficiency of using miRNAs as non-invasive biomarkers for asthma diagnosis and severity-risk assessment, respectively.

Development of childhood asthma prediction models using machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory symptoms are common in early life and often transient. It is difficult to identify in which children these will persist and result in asthma. Machine learning (ML) approaches have the potential for better predictive performance and generalisability over existing childhood asthma prediction models. This study applied ML approaches to predict school-age asthma (age 10) in early life (Childhood Asthma Prediction in Early life, CAPE model) and at preschool age (Childhood Asthma Prediction at Preschool age, CAPP model). METHODS: Clinical and environmental exposure data was collected from children enrolled in the Isle of Wight Birth Cohort (N = 1368, ∼15% asthma prevalence). Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) identified an optimal subset of features predictive of school-age asthma for each model. Seven state-of-the-art ML classification algorithms were used to develop prognostic models. Training was performed by applying fivefold cross-validation, imputation, and resampling. Predictive performance was evaluated on the test set. Models were further externally validated in the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS) cohort. RESULTS: RFE identified eight and twelve predictors for the CAPE and CAPP models, respectively. Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms provided the best performance for both the CAPE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC = 0.71) and CAPP (AUC = 0.82) models. Both models demonstrated good generalisability in MAAS (CAPE 8-year = 0.71, 11-year = 0.71, CAPP 8-year = 0.83, 11-year = 0.79) and excellent sensitivity to predict a subgroup of persistent wheezers. CONCLUSION: Using ML approaches improved upon the predictive performance of existing regression-based models, with good generalisability and ability to rule in asthma and predict persistent wheeze.

Epigenome-Wide Association Study Reveals Duration of Breastfeeding Is Associated with Epigenetic Differences in Children.

Several small studies have shown associations between breastfeeding and genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm). We performed a comprehensive Epigenome-Wide Association Study (EWAS) to identify associations between breastfeeding and DNAm patterns in childhood. We analysed DNAm data from the Isle of Wight Birth Cohort at birth, 10, 18 and 26 years. The feeding method was categorized as breastfeeding duration >3 months and >6 months, and exclusive breastfeeding duration >3 months. EWASs using robust linear regression were performed to identify differentially methylated positions (DMPs) in breastfed and non-breastfed children at age 10 (false discovery rate of 5%). Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified using comb-p. The persistence of significant associations was evaluated in neonates and individuals at 18 and 26 years. Two DMPs, in genes SNX25 and LINC00840, were significantly associated with breastfeeding duration >6 months at 10 years and was replicated for >3 months of exclusive breastfeeding. Additionally, a significant DMR spanning the gene FDFT1 was identified in 10-year-old children who were exposed to a breastfeeding duration >3 months. None of these signals persisted to 18 or 26 years. This study lends further support for a suggestive role of DNAm in the known benefits of breastfeeding on a child's future health.