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BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery is performed worldwide. Most types of cardiac surgery are performed using cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). Cardiac surgery performed with CPB is associated with morbidities. CPB needs an extracorporeal circulation that replaces the heart and lungs, and performs circulation, ventilation, and oxygenation of the blood. The lower limit of mean blood pressure to maintain blood flow to vital organs increases in people with chronic hypertension. Because people undergoing cardiac surgery commonly have chronic hypertension, we hypothesised that maintaining a relatively high blood pressure improves desirable outcomes among the people undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the benefits and harms of higher versus lower blood pressure targets during cardiac surgery with CPB. SEARCH METHODS: We used standard, extensive Cochrane search methods. The latest search of databases was November 2021 and trials registries in January 2020. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing a higher blood pressure target (mean arterial pressure 65 mmHg or greater) with a lower blood pressure target (mean arterial pressure less than 65 mmHg) in adults undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods. Primary outcomes were 1. acute kidney injury, 2. cognitive deterioration, and 3. all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were 4. quality of life, 5. acute ischaemic stroke, 6. haemorrhagic stroke, 7. length of hospital stay, 8. renal replacement therapy, 9. delirium, 10. perioperative transfusion of blood products, and 11. perioperative myocardial infarction. We used GRADE to assess certainty of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: We included three RCTs with 737 people compared a higher blood pressure target with a lower blood pressure target during cardiac surgery with CPB. A high blood pressure target may result in little to no difference in acute kidney injury (risk ratio (RR) 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 2.08; I² = 72%; 2 studies, 487 participants; low-certainty evidence), cognitive deterioration (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.50; I² = 0%; 2 studies, 389 participants; low-certainty evidence), and all-cause mortality (RR 1.33, 95% CI 0.30 to 5.90; I² = 49%; 3 studies, 737 participants; low-certainty evidence). No study reported haemorrhagic stroke. Although a high blood pressure target may increase the length of hospital stay slightly, we found no differences between a higher and a lower blood pressure target for the other secondary outcomes. We also identified one ongoing RCT which is comparing a higher versus a lower blood pressure target among the people who undergo cardiac surgery with CPB. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: A high blood pressure target may result in little to no difference in patient outcomes including acute kidney injury and mortality. Given the wide CIs, further studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of a higher blood pressure target among those who undergo cardiac surgery with CPB.
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Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Ponte Cardiopulmonar , Adulto , Humanos , Injúria Renal Aguda/epidemiologia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/efeitos adversos , Ponte Cardiopulmonar/efeitos adversos , Acidente Vascular Cerebral Hemorrágico , Hipertensão , Hipotensão , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality, which leads to a substantial loss of exercise capacity. PH ultimately leads to right ventricular overload and subsequent heart failure and early death. Although early detection and treatment of PH are recommended, due to the limited responsiveness to therapy at late disease stages, many patients are diagnosed at a later stage of the disease because symptoms and signs of PH are nonspecific at earlier stages. While direct pressure measurement with right-heart catheterisation is the clinical reference standard for PH, it is not routinely used due to its invasiveness and complications. Trans-thoracic Doppler echocardiography is less invasive, less expensive, and widely available compared to right-heart catheterisation; it is therefore recommended that echocardiography be used as an initial diagnosis method in guidelines. However, several studies have questioned the accuracy of noninvasively measured pulmonary artery pressure. There is substantial uncertainty about the diagnostic accuracy of echocardiography for the diagnosis of PH. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of trans-thoracic Doppler echocardiography for detecting PH. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, ClinicalTrials.gov, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform from database inception to August 2021, reference lists of articles, and contacted study authors. We applied no restrictions on language or type of publication. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies that evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of trans-thoracic Doppler echocardiography for detecting PH, where right-heart catheterisation was the reference standard. We excluded diagnostic case-control studies (two-gate design), studies where right-heart catheterisation was not the reference standard, and those in which the reference standard threshold differed from 25 mmHg. We also excluded studies that did not provide sufficient diagnostic test accuracy data (true-positive [TP], false-positive [FP], true-negative [TN], and false-negative [FN] values, based on the reference standard). We included studies that provided data from which we could extract TP, FP, TN, and FN values, based on the reference standard. Two authors independently screened and assessed the eligibility based on the titles and abstracts of records identified by the search. After the title and abstract screening, the full-text reports of all potentially eligible studies were obtained, and two authors independently assessed the eligibility of the full-text reports. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed the risk of bias and extracted data from each of the included studies. We contacted the authors of the included studies to obtain missing data. We assessed the methodological quality of studies using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. We estimated a summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve by fitting a hierarchical summary ROC (HSROC) non-linear mixed model. We explored sources of heterogeneity regarding types of PH, methods to estimate the right atrial pressure, and threshold of index test to diagnose PH. All analyses were performed using the Review Manager 5, SAS and STATA statistical software. MAIN RESULTS: We included 17 studies (comprising 3656 adult patients) assessing the diagnostic accuracy of Doppler trans-thoracic echocardiography for the diagnosis of PH. The included studies were heterogeneous in terms of patient distribution of age, sex, WHO classification, setting, country, positivity threshold, and year of publication. The prevalence of PH reported in the included studies varied widely (from 6% to 88%). The threshold of index test for PH diagnosis varied widely (from 30 mmHg to 47 mmHg) and was not always prespecified. No study was assigned low risk of bias or low concern in each QUADAS-2 domain assessed. Poor reporting, especially in the index test and reference standard domains, hampered conclusive judgement about the risk of bias. There was little consistency in the thresholds used in the included studies; therefore, common thresholds contained very sparse data, which prevented us from calculating summary points of accuracy estimates. With a fixed specificity of 86% (the median specificity), the estimated sensitivity derived from the median value of specificity using HSROC model was 87% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78% to 96%). Using a prevalence of PH of 68%, which was the median among the included studies conducted mainly in tertiary hospitals, diagnosing a cohort of 1000 adult patients under suspicion of PH would result in 88 patients being undiagnosed with PH (false negatives) and 275 patients would avoid unnecessary referral for a right-heart catheterisation (true negatives). In addition, 592 of 1000 patients would receive an appropriate and timely referral for a right-heart catheterisation (true positives), while 45 patients would be wrongly considered to have PH (false positives). Conversely, when we assumed low prevalence of PH (10%), as in the case of preoperative examinations for liver transplantation, the number of false negatives and false positives would be 13 and 126, respectively. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Our evidence assessment of echocardiography for the diagnosis of PH in adult patients revealed several limitations. We were unable to determine the average sensitivity and specificity at any particular index test threshold and to explain the observed variability in results. The high heterogeneity of the collected data and the poor methodological quality would constrain the implementation of this result into clinical practice. Further studies relative to the accuracy of Doppler trans-thoracic echocardiography for the diagnosis of PH in adults, that apply a rigorous methodology for conducting diagnostic test accuracy studies, are needed.
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Hipertensão Pulmonar , Adulto , Ecocardiografia , Ecocardiografia Doppler , Humanos , Hipertensão Pulmonar/diagnóstico por imagem , Exame Físico/métodos , Sensibilidade e EspecificidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Research engagement contributes to the improvement of patient care. A systematic review is a suitable first scholarly activity because it entails summarization of publicly available data and usually requires neither rigorous ethical review nor research funding. METHODS: This study aimed to develop a model workshop for healthcare staff to acquire skills in creating systematic review protocols based on their own clinical questions at teaching hospitals. We used an action research method to create a model workshop at four hospitals in Japan from April 2015 to March 2017. To improve the program, we solicited reflections using participant questionnaires for each lecture and examined the quality of homework submitted by participants after each lecture. We administered a revised final version of the workshop at five hospitals from April 2016 to March 2017. We evaluated the participants' scholarly productivity related to these workshops. The observation period was a minimum of 2 years following the workshops. RESULTS: Most participants had never developed a formal clinical research protocol and voluntarily participated in the workshop. The action research was developed and implemented at nine teaching hospitals in Japan, including one university hospital. The study developed a model nine-step workshop curriculum: 1) Research question development, 2) Search strategy development, 3) Search strategy brush-up, 4) Exclusion and inclusion criteria development, 5) Risk of bias assessment planning, 6) Meta-analysis planning, 7) Subgroup and sensitivity analysis planning, 8) Planning the presentation of results, and 9) Presentation protocols. A total of 233 participants, including medical doctors and other health professionals, produced 414 research questions. Seventy-nine participants (34%) completed the workshop, and 47 review teams accomplished systematic review protocols. The participants published 13 peer-reviewed articles as a result of the workshop. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a structured scholarly productive model workshop for healthcare staff working at hospitals. We found healthcare staff with clinical subspecialties were able to develop an unexpectedly high number of research questions through this workshop. Medical teachers at hospitals with prior systematic review experience could teach how to develop systematic review protocols using this model. Further research is needed to increase the academic productivity of such workshops. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN (https://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/), UMIN000017107 (4/15/2015), UMIN000025580 (1/10/2017).
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Pessoal de Saúde , Pesquisa sobre Serviços de Saúde , Atenção à Saúde , Hospitais de Ensino , Humanos , Japão , Metanálise como Assunto , Revisões Sistemáticas como AssuntoRESUMO
Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) is used not only support gas transfer of patients suffering from respiratory failure, but also to manage hypoxic patients with critical airway obstruction during various procedures. We present a case in which we electively used VV-ECMO to facilitate tube placement and tracheal biopsy in a 67-year-old female with critical tracheal stenosis. The patient was transferred to our hospital for a surgical treatment after emergent tracheostomy for postoperative management of cerebral hemorrhage in right putamen. Her trachea was severely stenotic and just enough for a 5.5 mm tracheostomy tube. Removal of tracheostomy tube, tracheal wall biopsy and intra-tracheal tube placement were successfully performed under VV-ECMO support, drainage from inferior vena cava returned into the right ventricle (RV). RV perfusion was a very useful and effective method in VV-ECMO system, although some careful wire management was needed under fluoroscopic guidance.
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Obstrução das Vias Respiratórias/terapia , Gerenciamento Clínico , Oxigenação por Membrana Extracorpórea/métodos , Insuficiência Respiratória/terapia , Idoso , Obstrução das Vias Respiratórias/complicações , Obstrução das Vias Respiratórias/diagnóstico , Feminino , Humanos , Insuficiência Respiratória/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Respiratória/etiologia , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Veia Cava InferiorRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The cardiothoracic ratio (CTR) is a non-invasive left ventricular hypertrophy index. However, whether CTR associates with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in hemodialysis (HD) populations is unclear. METHODS: Using a Mineral and Bone disorder Outcomes Study for Japanese CKD Stage 5D Patients (MBD-5D Study) subcohort, 2266 prevalent HD patients (age 62.8 years, female 38.0%, HD duration 9.4 years) with secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) whose baseline CTR had been recorded were selected. We evaluated associations between CTR and all-cause death, CVD death, or composite events in HD patients. RESULTS: CTR was associated significantly with various background and laboratory characteristics. All-cause death, CVD-related death, and composite events increased across the CTR quartiles (Q). Adjusted hazard risk (HR) for all-cause death was 1.4 (95% confidential interval, 0.9-2.1) in Q2, 1.9 (1.3-2.9) in Q3, and 2.6 (1.7-4.0) in Q4, respectively (Q1 as a reference). The corresponding adjusted HR for CVD-related death was 1.8 (0.8-4.2), 3.1 (1.4-6.8), and 3.5 (1.6-7.9), and that for composite outcome was 1.2 (1.0-1.6), 1.7 (1.3-2.2), and 1.8 (1.5-2.3), respectively. Exploratory analysis revealed that there were relationships between CTR and age, sex, body mass index, comorbidity of CVD, dialysis duration and intact parathyroid hormone, phosphorus, hemoglobin, and usage of phosphate binder [corrected]. CONCLUSION: CTR correlated with all-cause death, CVD death, and composite events in HD patients with SHPT.
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Hipertrofia Ventricular Esquerda/diagnóstico por imagem , Hipertrofia Ventricular Esquerda/mortalidade , Radiografia Torácica , Diálise Renal/mortalidade , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/terapia , Idoso , Causas de Morte , Comorbidade , Feminino , Humanos , Hiperparatireoidismo Secundário/mortalidade , Japão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Prevalência , Estudos Prospectivos , Diálise Renal/efeitos adversos , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/diagnóstico , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/mortalidade , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: This meta-analysis compared the effects of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) with invasive mechanical ventilation (InMV) and standard oxygen (O2) therapy on mortality and rate of tracheal intubation in patients presenting acute respiratory failure (ARF). METHODS: We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of clinical trials databases between 1949 and May 2015 to identify randomized trials of NIV for ARF. We excluded the ARF caused by extubation, cardiogenic pulmonary edema, and COPD. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 21 studies and 1691 patients, of whom 846 were assigned to NIV and 845 to control (InMV or standard O2 therapy). One hundred ninety-one patients (22.6%) in the NIV group and 261 patients (30.9%) in the control group died before discharge from hospital. The pooled odds ratio (OR) for short-term mortality (in-hospital mortality) was 0.56 (95% CI 0.40-0.78). When comparing NIV with standard O2 therapy, the short-term mortality was 155 (27.4%) versus 204 (36.0%), respectively. For this comparison, the pooled OR of short-term mortality was 0.56 (95% CI 0.36-0.85). When comparing NIV with InMV, the short-term mortality was 36 (12.9%) versus 57 (20.5%) patients, respectively. For this comparison, the pooled OR of short-term mortality was 0.56 (95% CI 0.34-0.90). Tracheal intubation was performed in 106 patients (22.7%) in the NIV and in 183 patients (39.4%) in the standard O2 group, representing a pooled OR of 0.37 (95% CI 0.25-0.55). There were publication biases and the quality of the evidence was graded as low. CONCLUSION: Compared with standard O2 therapy or InMV, NIV lowered both the short-term mortality and the rate of tracheal intubation in patients presenting with ARF.
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Ventilação não Invasiva/métodos , Respiração Artificial/métodos , Insuficiência Respiratória/terapia , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Intubação Intratraqueal , Oxigênio/administração & dosagem , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoAssuntos
Anticoagulantes/efeitos adversos , Antitrombinas/uso terapêutico , Coagulação Sanguínea/efeitos dos fármacos , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Heparina/efeitos adversos , Ácidos Pipecólicos/uso terapêutico , Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Embolia Pulmonar/tratamento farmacológico , Trombocitopenia/tratamento farmacológico , Adulto , Anticoagulantes/administração & dosagem , Arginina/análogos & derivados , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , COVID-19 , Infecções por Coronavirus/complicações , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Heparina/administração & dosagem , Interações Hospedeiro-Patógeno , Humanos , Masculino , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/complicações , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Embolia Pulmonar/sangue , Embolia Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Embolia Pulmonar/virologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Sulfonamidas , Trombocitopenia/sangue , Trombocitopenia/induzido quimicamente , Trombocitopenia/diagnóstico , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
There are currently no abstract classifiers, which can be used for new diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) systematic reviews to select primary DTA study abstracts from database searches. Our goal was to develop machine-learning-based abstract classifiers for new DTA systematic reviews through an open competition. We prepared a dataset of abstracts obtained through database searches from 11 reviews in different clinical areas. As the reference standard, we used the abstract lists that required manual full-text review. We randomly splitted the datasets into a train set, a public test set, and a private test set. Competition participants used the training set to develop classifiers and validated their classifiers using the public test set. The classifiers were refined based on the performance of the public test set. They could submit as many times as they wanted during the competition. Finally, we used the private test set to rank the submitted classifiers. To reduce false exclusions, we used the Fbeta measure with a beta set to seven for evaluating classifiers. After the competition, we conducted the external validation using a dataset from a cardiology DTA review. We received 13,774 submissions from 1429 teams or persons over 4 months. The top-honored classifier achieved a Fbeta score of 0.4036 and a recall of 0.2352 in the external validation. In conclusion, we were unable to develop an abstract classifier with sufficient recall for immediate application to new DTA systematic reviews. Further studies are needed to update and validate classifiers with datasets from other clinical areas.
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Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Aprendizado de Máquina , Humanos , Bases de Dados FactuaisRESUMO
AIM: Status epilepticus (SE) is a life-threatening neurological emergency. There is insufficient evidence regarding which antiepileptic therapy is most effective in patients with benzodiazepine-refractory convulsive SE. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate intravenous phenytoin (PHT) and other intravenous antiepileptic medications for SE. METHODS: We searched PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Igaku Chuo Zasshi for published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in humans up to August 2019. We compared outcomes between intravenous PHT and other intravenous medications. The important primary composite outcomes were the successful clinical cessation of seizures, mortality, and neurological outcomes at discharge. The reliability of the level of evidence for each outcome was compared using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. RESULTS: A total of 1,103 studies were identified from the databases, and 10 RCTs were included in the analysis. The ratio of successful clinical seizure cessation was significantly lower (risk ratio [RR] 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.97) for patients treated with intravenous PHT than with other medications. When we compared mortality and neurological outcomes at discharge, we observed no significant differences between patients treated with PHT and those treated with other medications. The RRs were 1.07 (95% CI, 0.55-2.08) and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.72-1.15) for mortality and neurological outcomes at discharge, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed that intravenous PHT was significantly inferior to other medications in terms of the cessation of seizures. No significant differences were observed in mortality or neurological outcomes between PHT and other medications.
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BACKGROUND: Elevated perioperative heart rate potentially causes perioperative myocardial injury because of imbalance in oxygen supply and demand. However, large multicenter studies evaluating early postoperative heart rate and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of 4 postoperative heart rate assessment methods with in-hospital MACCEs after elective coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: Using data from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States from 2014 to 2015, the study evaluated postoperative heart rate measured during hospitalization within 24 hours after intensive care unit admission. Four heart rate assessment methods were evaluated: maximum heart rate, duration above heart rate 100/min, area above heart rate 100/min, and time-weighted average heart rate. The outcome was in-hospital MACCEs, defined as a composite of in-hospital death, myocardial infarction, angina, arrhythmia, heart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, or repeat revascularization. RESULTS: Among 2585 patients, the crude rate of in-hospital MACCEs was 6.2%. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, the adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for in-hospital MAC-CEs assessed by maximum heart rate in each heart rate category (beats per minute: >100-110, >110-120, >120-130, and >130) were 1.43 (0.95-2.15), 0.98 (0.56-1.64), 1.47 (0.76-2.69), and 1.71 (0.80-3.35), respectively. Similarly, none of the other 3 methods were associated with MACCEs. CONCLUSIONS: More research is needed to assess the usefulness of heart rate measurement in patients after CABG.
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Doença da Artéria Coronariana , Infarto do Miocárdio , Ponte de Artéria Coronária/efeitos adversos , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/complicações , Frequência Cardíaca , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Humanos , Infarto do Miocárdio/complicações , Período Pós-Operatório , Fatores de Risco , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
Many studies have been conducted on ventilator-associated complications (VACs) in patients with coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). However, in these studies, the causative organisms were similar, and there were no reports on VAC corresponding with Corynebacteria. Coryneforms are frequently cultured in cases of polymicrobial infections and are usually considered contaminants in respiratory specimens. However, Corynebacterium pseudodiphtheriticum or C. striatum is known to be a pathogen in lower respiratory tract infections. We report three cases of VAC, probably due to C. pseudodiphtheriticum, in patients with COVID-19. If purulent lower respiratory tract specimens showed coryneform predominantly upon Gram staining, empirical therapy should be started. Furthermore, species identification and drug susceptibility testing should be performed.
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COVID-19 , Coinfecção , Infecções por Corynebacterium , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Coinfecção/complicações , Corynebacterium , Infecções por Corynebacterium/complicações , Infecções por Corynebacterium/diagnóstico , Humanos , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Respiração Artificial/efeitos adversosRESUMO
Background: We developed and validated a machine learning diagnostic model for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) disease, integrating artificial-intelligence-based computed tomography (CT) imaging and clinical features. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in 11 Japanese tertiary care facilities that treated COVID-19 patients. Participants were tested using both real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and chest CTs between January 1 and May 30, 2020. We chronologically split the dataset in each hospital into training and test sets, containing patients in a 7:3 ratio. A Light Gradient Boosting Machine model was used for the analysis. Results: A total of 703 patients were included, and two models-the full model and the A-blood model-were developed for their diagnosis. The A-blood model included eight variables (the Ali-M3 confidence, along with seven clinical features of blood counts and biochemistry markers). The areas under the receiver-operator curve of both models [0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86 to 0.95 for the full model and 0.90, 95% CI: 0.86 to 0.94 for the A-blood model] were better than that of the Ali-M3 confidence (0.78, 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.83) in the test set. Conclusions: The A-blood model, a COVID-19 diagnostic model developed in this study, combines machine-learning and CT evaluation with blood test data and performs better than the Ali-M3 framework existing for this purpose. This would significantly aid physicians in making a quicker diagnosis of COVID-19.
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BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and externally validate a novel machine learning model that can classify CT image findings as positive or negative for SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). METHODS: We used 2,928 images from a wide variety of case-control type data sources for the development and internal validation of the machine learning model. A total of 633 COVID-19 cases and 2,295 non-COVID-19 cases were included in the study. We randomly divided cases into training and tuning sets at a ratio of 8:2. For external validation, we used 893 images from 740 consecutive patients at 11 acute care hospitals suspected of having COVID-19 at the time of diagnosis. The dataset included 343 COVID-19 patients. The reference standard was RT-PCR. RESULTS: In external validation, the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.869 and 0.432, at the low-level cutoff, 0.724 and 0.721, at the high-level cutoff. Area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.76. CONCLUSIONS: Our machine learning model exhibited a high sensitivity in external validation datasets and may assist physicians to rule out COVID-19 diagnosis in a timely manner at emergency departments. Further studies are warranted to improve model specificity.
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Ali-M3, an artificial intelligence program, analyzes chest computed tomography (CT) and detects the likelihood of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on scores ranging from 0 to 1. However, Ali-M3 has not been externally validated. Our aim was to evaluate the accuracy of Ali-M3 for detecting COVID-19 and discuss its clinical value. We evaluated the external validity of Ali-M3 using sequential Japanese sampling data. In this retrospective cohort study, COVID-19 infection probabilities for 617 symptomatic patients were determined using Ali-M3. In 11 Japanese tertiary care facilities, these patients underwent reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. They also underwent chest CT to confirm a diagnosis of COVID-19. Of the 617 patients, 289 (46.8%) were RT-PCR-positive. The area under the curve (AUC) of Ali-M3 for predicting a COVID-19 diagnosis was 0.797 (95% confidence interval: 0.762â0.833) and the goodness-of-fit was P = 0.156. With a cut-off probability of a diagnosis of COVID-19 by Ali-M3 set at 0.5, the sensitivity and specificity were 80.6% and 68.3%, respectively. A cut-off of 0.2 yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 89.2% and 43.2%, respectively. Among the 223 patients who required oxygen, the AUC was 0.825. Sensitivity at a cut-off of 0.5% and 0.2% was 88.7% and 97.9%, respectively. Although the sensitivity was lower when the days from symptom onset were fewer, the sensitivity increased for both cut-off values after 5 days. We evaluated Ali-M3 using external validation with symptomatic patient data from Japanese tertiary care facilities. As Ali-M3 showed sufficient sensitivity performance, despite a lower specificity performance, Ali-M3 could be useful in excluding a diagnosis of COVID-19.
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Teste para COVID-19/métodos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Aprendizado Profundo , Diagnóstico por Computador/métodos , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X/métodos , Adulto , Idoso , Algoritmos , Área Sob a Curva , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Processamento de Imagem Assistida por Computador , Japão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Probabilidade , Curva ROC , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensibilidade e EspecificidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery is performed worldwide, and acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery is a risk factor for mortality. However, the optimal blood pressure target to prevent AKI after cardiac surgery remains unclear. We aimed to investigate whether relative hypotension and other hemodynamic parameters after cardiac surgery are associated with subsequent AKI progression. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled adult patients admitted to 14 intensive care units after elective cardiac surgery between January and December 2018. We defined mean perfusion pressure (MPP) as the difference between mean arterial pressure (MAP) and central venous pressure (CVP). The main exposure variables were time-weighted-average MPP-deficit (i.e., the percentage difference between preoperative and postoperative MPP) and time spent with MPP-deficit > 20% within the first 24 h. We defined other pressure-related hemodynamic parameters during the initial 24 h as exploratory exposure variables. The primary outcome was AKI progression, defined as one or more AKI stages using Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes' creatinine and urine output criteria between 24 and 72 h. We used multivariable logistic regression analyses to assess the association between the exposure variables and AKI progression. RESULTS: Among the 746 patients enrolled, the median time-weighted-average MPP-deficit was 20% [interquartile range (IQR): 10-27%], and the median duration with MPP-deficit > 20% was 12 h (IQR: 3-20 h). One-hundred-and-twenty patients (16.1%) experienced AKI progression. In the multivariable analyses, time-weighted-average MPP-deficit or time spent with MPP-deficit > 20% was not associated with AKI progression [odds ratio (OR): 1.01, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.99-1.03]. Likewise, time spent with MPP-deficit > 20% was not associated with AKI progression (OR: 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04). Among exploratory exposure variables, time-weighted-average CVP, time-weighted-average MPP, and time spent with MPP < 60 mmHg were associated with AKI progression (OR: 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.20; OR: 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99; OR: 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although higher CVP and lower MPP were associated with AKI progression, relative hypotension was not associated with AKI progression in patients after cardiac surgery. However, these findings were based on exploratory investigation, and further studies for validating them are required. Trial Registration UMIN-CTR, https://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/index-j.htm , UMIN000037074.
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Since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it has remained unknown whether conventional risk prediction tools used in intensive care units are applicable to patients with COVID-19. Therefore, we assessed the performance of established risk prediction models using the Japanese Intensive Care database. Discrimination and calibration of the models were poor. Revised risk prediction models are needed to assess the clinical severity of COVID-19 patients and monitor healthcare quality in ICUs overwhelmed by patients with COVID-19.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III-j model is widely used to predict mortality in Japanese intensive care units (ICUs). Although the model's discrimination is excellent, its calibration is poor. APACHE III-j overestimates the risk of death, making its evaluation of healthcare quality inaccurate. This study aimed to improve the calibration of the model and develop a Japan Risk of Death (JROD) model for benchmarking purposes. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted using a national clinical registry of ICU patients in Japan. Adult patients admitted to an ICU between April 1, 2018, and March 31, 2019, were included. The APACHE III-j model was recalibrated with the following models: Model 1, predicting mortality with an offset variable for the linear predictor of the APACHE III-j model using a generalized linear model; model 2, predicting mortality with the linear predictor of the APACHE III-j model using a generalized linear model; and model 3, predicting mortality with the linear predictor of the APACHE III-j model using a hierarchical generalized additive model. Model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), the Brier score, and the modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. To confirm model applicability to evaluating quality of care, funnel plots of the standardized mortality ratio and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts for mortality were drawn. RESULTS: In total, 33,557 patients from 44 ICUs were included in the study population. ICU mortality was 3.8%, and hospital mortality was 8.1%. The AUROC, Brier score, and modified Hosmer-Lemeshow p value of the original model and models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.915, 0.062, and < .001; 0.915, 0.047, and < .001; 0.915, 0.047, and .002; and 0.917, 0.047, and .84, respectively. Except for model 3, the funnel plots showed overdispersion. The validity of the EWMA charts for the recalibrated models was determined by visual inspection. CONCLUSIONS: Model 3 showed good performance and can be adopted as the JROD model for monitoring quality of care in an ICU, although further investigation of the clinical validity of outlier detection is required. This update method may also be useful in other settings.