Trust and trustworthy artificial intelligence: A research agenda for AI in the environmental sciences.

Demands to manage the risks of artificial intelligence (AI) are growing. These demands and the government standards arising from them both call for trustworthy AI. In response, we adopt a convergent approach to review, evaluate, and synthesize research on the trust and trustworthiness of AI in the environmental sciences and propose a research agenda. Evidential and conceptual histories of research on trust and trustworthiness reveal persisting ambiguities and measurement shortcomings related to inconsistent attention to the contextual and social dependencies and dynamics of trust. Potentially underappreciated in the development of trustworthy AI for environmental sciences is the importance of engaging AI users and other stakeholders, which human-AI teaming perspectives on AI development similarly underscore. Co-development strategies may also help reconcile efforts to develop performance-based trustworthiness standards with dynamic and contextual notions of trust. We illustrate the importance of these themes with applied examples and show how insights from research on trust and the communication of risk and uncertainty can help advance the understanding of trust and trustworthiness of AI in the environmental sciences.

Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Using Fused Deep Learning From Aligned Reanalysis Data.

The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current statistical forecasting models have much room for improvement given that the database of past hurricanes is constantly growing. Machine learning methods, that can capture non-linearities and complex relations, have only been scarcely tested for this application. We propose a neural network model fusing past trajectory data and reanalysis atmospheric images (wind and pressure 3D fields). We use a moving frame of reference that follows the storm center for the 24 h tracking forecast. The network is trained to estimate the longitude and latitude displacement of tropical cyclones and depressions from a large database from both hemispheres (more than 3,000 storms since 1979, sampled at a 6 h frequency). The advantage of the fused network is demonstrated and a comparison with current forecast models shows that deep learning methods could provide a valuable and complementary prediction. Moreover, our method can give a forecast for a new storm in a few seconds, which is an important asset for real-time forecasts compared to traditional forecasts.