Impacts of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Care Pathway on Healthcare Utilization and Costs: A Matched Multiple Control Cohort Study in Saskatchewan, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the real-world impacts of a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) care pathway program on healthcare utilization and costs in Saskatchewan, Canada. METHODS: A difference-in-differences evaluation of a real-life deployment of a COPD care pathway, using patient-level administrative health data in Saskatchewan, was conducted. The intervention group (n = 759) included adults (35+ years) with spirometry-confirmed COPD diagnosis recruited into the care pathway program in Regina between April 1, 2018 and March 31, 2019. The 2 control groups comprised adults (35+ years) with COPD who lived in Saskatoon during the same period (n = 759) or Regina between April 1, 2015 and March 31, 2016 (n = 759) who did not participate in the care pathway. RESULTS: Compared with the individuals in the Saskatoon control groups, individuals in the COPD care pathway group had shorter inpatient hospital length of stay (average treatment effect on the treated [ATT] -0.46, 95% CI -0.88 to -0.04) but a higher number of general practitioner visits (ATT 1.46, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.79) and specialist physician visits (ATT 0.84, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.07). Regarding healthcare costs, individuals in the care pathway group had higher COPD-related specialist visit costs (ATT $81.70, 95% CI $59.45 to $103.96) but lower COPD-related outpatient drug dispensation costs (ATT -$4.81, 95% CI -$9.34 to -$0.27). CONCLUSIONS: The care pathway reduced inpatient hospital length of stay, but increased general practitioner and specialist physician visits for COPD-related services within the first year of implementation.

Pre-transplant maintenance dialysis duration and outcomes after kidney transplantation: A multicenter population-based cohort study.

The association between pre-transplant dialysis duration and post-transplant outcomes may vary by the population and endpoints studied. We conducted a population-based cohort study using linked healthcare databases from Ontario, Canada including kidney transplant recipients (n = 4461) from 2004 to 2014. Our primary outcome was total graft failure (i.e., death, return to dialysis, or pre-emptive re-transplant). Secondary outcomes included death-censored graft failure, death with graft function, mortality, hospitalization for cardiovascular events, hospitalization for infection, and hospital readmission. We presented results by pre-transplant dialysis duration (pre-emptive transplant, and .01-1.43, 1.44-2.64, 2.65-4.25, 4.26-6.45, and 6.46-36.5 years, for quintiles 1-5). After adjusting for clinical characteristics, pre-emptive transplantation was associated with a lower rate of total graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] .68, 95% CI: .46, .99), while quintile 4 was associated with a higher rate (aHR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.71), when compared to quintile 1. There was no significant relationship between dialysis duration and death-censored graft failure, cardiovascular events, or hospital readmission. For death with graft function and mortality, quintiles 3-5 had a significantly higher aHR compared to quintile 1, while for infection, quintiles 2-5 had a higher aHR. Longer time on dialysis was associated with an increased rate of several adverse post-transplant outcomes.

Incident Atrial Fibrillation and the Risk of Congestive Heart Failure, Myocardial Infarction, End-Stage Kidney Disease, and Mortality Among Patients With a Decreased Estimated GFR.

BACKGROUND: The association of atrial fibrillation (AF), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and adverse events remains unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study from Ontario, Canada. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 1,422,978 adult residents with eGFRs < 90mL/min/1.73m2 from April 1, 2006, through March 31, 2015. FACTOR: A diagnosis of AF at hospitalization. OUTCOMES: Congestive heart failure (CHF), myocardial infarction (MI), end-stage kidney disease, all-cause mortality. RESULTS: All adverse events were more frequent in individuals with AF (93,414 propensity score matched) compared to no AF, and this difference was more pronounced within the first 6 months of the index date (CHF: 3.04% [AF] vs 0.28% [no AF], subdistribution HR [sHR] of 11.57 [95% CI, 10.26-13.05]; MI: 0.97% [AF] vs 0.21% [no AF], sHR of 4.76 [95% CI, 4.17-5.43]; end-stage kidney disease: 0.16% [AF] vs 0.03% [no AF], sHR of 5.84 [95% CI, 3.82-8.93]; and all-cause mortality: 6.11% [AF] vs 2.50% [no AF], HR of 2.62 [95% CI, 2.50-2.76]) than in the period more than 6 months after the index date (CHF: 6.87% [AF] vs 2.87% [no AF], sHR of 2.64 [95% CI, 2.55-2.74]; MI: 2.21% [AF] vs 1.81% [no AF], sHR of 1.24 [95% CI, 1.18-1.30]; end-stage kidney disease: 0.52% [AF] vs 0.32% [no AF], sHR of 1.75 [95% CI, 1.57-1.95]; and all-cause mortality: 15.55% [AF] vs 15.10% [no AF], HR of 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10]). The results accounted for the competing risk for mortality. eGFR level modified the effect of AF on CHF (P for interaction < 0.05). LIMITATIONS: Observational study design does not permit determination of causality; only a single outpatient eGFR measure was used; medication data were not included. CONCLUSIONS: Incident AF is associated with a high risk for adverse outcomes in patients with eGFRs < 90mL/min/1.73m2. Because the risk is exceedingly high within the first 6 months after AF diagnosis, therapeutic interventions and monitoring may improve outcomes.

Comparison of the accuracy of classification models to estimate healthcare use and costs associated with COPD exacerbations in Saskatchewan, Canada: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: COPD is a high-cost disease and results in frequent contacts with the healthcare system. The study objective was to compare the accuracy of classification models with different covariates for classifying COPD patients into cost groups. METHODS: Linked health administrative databases from Saskatchewan, Canada, were used to identify a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients (April 1, 2007 to March 31, 2011) and their episodes of healthcare encounters for disease exacerbations. Total costs of the first and follow-up episodes were computed and patients were categorized as persistently high cost, occasionally high cost, and persistently low cost based on cumulative cost distribution ranking using the 75th percentile cutoff for high-cost status. Classification accuracy was compared for seven multinomial logistic regression models containing socio-demographic characteristics (i.e., base model), and socio-demographic and prior healthcare use characteristics (i.e., comparator models). RESULTS: Of the 1182 patients identified, 8.5% were classified as persistently high cost, 26.1% as occasionally high cost, and the remainder as persistently low cost. The persistently high-cost and occasionally high-cost patients incurred 10 times ($12 449 vs $1263) and seven times ($9334 vs $1263) more costs in their first exacerbation episode than persistently low-cost patients, respectively. Classification accuracy was 0.67 for the base model, whereas the comparator model containing socio-demographic and number of prior hospital admissions had the highest accuracy (0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Costs associated with COPD exacerbation episodes are substantial. Adding prior hospitalization to socio-demographic characteristics produced the highest improvements in classification accuracy. Accurate classification models are important for identifying potential healthcare cost management strategies.

Measuring care trajectories using health administrative databases: a population-based investigation of transitions from emergency to acute care.

BACKGROUND: A patient's trajectory through the healthcare system affects resource use and outcomes. Data fields in population-based administrative health databases are potentially valuable resources for constructing care trajectories for entire populations, provided they can capture patient transitions between healthcare services. This study describes patient transitions from the emergency department (ED) to other healthcare settings, and ascertains whether the discharge disposition field recorded in the ED data was a reliable source of patient transition information from the emergency to the acute care settings. METHODS: Administrative health databases from the province of Saskatchewan, Canada (population 1.1 million) were used to identify patients with at least one ED visit to provincial teaching hospitals (n = 5) between April 1, 2006 and March 31, 2012. Discharge disposition from ED was described using frequencies and percentages; and it includes categories such as home, transfer to other facilities, and died. The kappa statistic with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs) was used to measure agreement between the discharge disposition field in the ED data and hospital admission records. RESULTS: We identified N = 1,062,861 visits for 371,480 patients to EDs over the six-year study period. Three-quarters of the discharges were to home, 16.1 % were to acute care in the same facility in which the ED was located, and 1.6 % resulted in a patient transfer to a different acute care facility. Agreement between the discharge disposition field in the ED data and hospital admission records was good when the emergency and acute care departments were in the same facility (κ = 0.77, 95 % CI 0.77, 0.77). For transfers to a different acute care facility, agreement was only fair (κ = 0.36, 95 % CI 0.35, 0.36). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients who attended EDs did not transition to another healthcare setting. For those who transitioned to acute care, accuracy of the discharge disposition field depended on whether the two services were provided in the same facility. Using the hospital data as reference, we conclude that the discharge disposition field in the ED data is not reliable for measuring transitions from ED to acute care.

Real-World Cost-Consequence Analysis of an Integrated Chronic Disease Management Program in Saskatchewan, Canada.

An integrated disease management program otherwise called a clinical pathway was recently implemented in Saskatchewan, Canada for patients living with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study compared the real-world costs and consequences of the COPD clinical pathway program with 2 control treatment programs. The study comprised adult COPD patients in Regina (clinical pathway group, N = 759) matched on propensity scores to 2 independent control groups of similar adults in (1) Regina (historical controls, N = 759) and (2) Saskatoon (contemporaneous controls, N = 759). The study measures included patient-level healthcare costs and acute COPD exacerbation outcomes, both tracked in population-based administrative health data over a one-year follow-up period. Analyses included Cox proportional hazards models and differences in means between groups. The bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap method was used to calculate 95% confidence intervals (CI). The COPD pathway patients had lower risks of moderate (hazard ratio [HR] =0.57, 95% CI [0.40-0.83]) and severe (HR = 0.43, 95% CI [0.28-0.66]) exacerbations compared to the historical control group, but similar risks compared with the contemporaneous control group. The COPD pathway patients experienced fewer episodes of exacerbations compared with the historical control group (mean difference = -0.30, 95% CI [-0.40, -0.20]) and the contemporaneous control group (mean difference = -0.12, 95% CI [-0.20, -0.03]). Average annual healthcare costs in Canadian dollars were marginally higher among patients in the COPD clinical pathway (mean = $10 549, standard deviation [SD] =$18 149) than those in the contemporaneous control group ($8841, SD = $17 120), but comparable to the historical control group ($10 677, SD = $21 201). The COPD pathway provides better outcomes at about the same costs when compared to the historical controls, but only slightly better outcomes and at a marginally higher cost when compared to the contemporaneous controls.

An economic evaluation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease clinical pathway in Saskatchewan, Canada: Data-driven techniques to identify cost-effectiveness among patient subgroups.

BACKGROUND: Saskatchewan has implemented care pathways for several common health conditions. To date, there has not been any cost-effectiveness evaluation of care pathways in the province. The objective of this study was to evaluate the real-world cost-effectiveness of a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) care pathway program in Saskatchewan. METHODS: Using patient-level administrative health data, we identified adults (35+ years) with COPD diagnosis recruited into the care pathway program in Regina between April 1, 2018, and March 31, 2019 (N = 759). The control group comprised adults (35+ years) with COPD who lived in Saskatoon during the same period (N = 759). The control group was matched to the intervention group using propensity scores. Costs were calculated at the patient level. The outcome measure was the number of days patients remained without experiencing COPD exacerbation within 1-year follow-up. Both manual and data-driven policy learning approaches were used to assess heterogeneity in the cost-effectiveness by patient demographic and disease characteristics. Bootstrapping was used to quantify uncertainty in the results. RESULTS: In the overall sample, the estimates indicate that the COPD care pathway was not cost-effective using the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold values in the range of $1,000 and $5,000/exacerbation day averted. The manual subgroup analyses show the COPD care pathway was dominant among patients with comorbidities and among patients aged 65 years or younger at the WTP threshold of $2000/exacerbation day averted. Although similar profiles as those identified in the manual subgroup analyses were confirmed, the data-driven policy learning approach suggests more nuanced demographic and disease profiles that the care pathway would be most appropriate for. CONCLUSIONS: Both manual subgroup analysis and data-driven policy learning approach showed that the COPD care pathway consistently produced cost savings and better health outcomes among patients with comorbidities or among those relatively younger. The care pathway was not cost-effective in the entire sample.

Measuring the Overall Burden of Early Childhood Malnutrition in Ghana: A Comparison of Estimates From Multiple Data Sources.

BACKGROUND: Childhood malnutrition contributes to nearly half (45%) of all deaths among children under 5 globally. The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aims to end all forms of malnutrition by 2030; however, measuring progress towards these goals is challenging, particularly in countries with emerging economies where nationally-representative data are limited. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the overall burden of childhood malnutrition in Ghana at national and regional levels using 3 data sources. METHODS: Using data from the long-standing Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS), Ghana Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (GMICS), and the emerging Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Survey (GSPS), we compared the prevalence of malnutrition using the extended composite index of anthropometric failure (eCIAF) for the period 2008- 2011. This study included data for children aged 6-59 months and calculated all anthropometric z-scores based on the World Health Organization (WHO) Growth Standards. We tested for differences in malnutrition subtypes using two-group configural frequency analysis (CFA). RESULTS: Of the 10 281 children (6532 from GMICS, 2141 from GDHS and 1608 from GSPS) included in the study, the only demographic difference observed was the children included in the GSPS were slightly older than those included in the GDHS and GMICS (median age of 36 vs 30 vs 33 months, P<.001). Based on the eCIAF, the overall prevalence of malnutrition at the national level was higher among children in the GSPS (57.3%, 95% CI: 53.9%-60.6%), followed by the GDHS (39.7%, 95% CI: 37.0%-42.5%), and then those in the GMICS (31.2%, 95% CI: 29.3%-33.1%). The two-group CFA showed that the 3 data sources also estimated different prevalence rates for most of the malnutrition subtypes included in the eCIAF. CONCLUSION: Depending on the data source adopted, our estimates of eCIAF showed that between one-third and half of all Ghanaian children aged 6-59 months had at least one form of malnutrition over the period 2008-2011. These eCIAF estimates should complement the commonly reported measures such as stunting and wasting when interpreting the severity of malnutrition in the country to inform policy decisions.

Secular Trends in Incidence, Modality and Mortality with Dialysis Receiving AKI in Children in Ontario: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There is a limited appreciation of the epidemiology of dialysis-receiving AKI in children. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate changes in the incidence of dialysis-receiving AKI among children over a period of 20 years in Ontario, Canada. The secondary objectives were to assess temporal trends in the utilization of various dialysis modalities and 30-day mortality among children with dialysis-receiving AKI. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: All children (29 days to 18 years) who received their first dialysis for AKI between 1996 and 2015 were identified from healthcare administrative databases. Those who received dialysis for ESKD, inborn errors of metabolism, and poisonings were excluded. The incidence rates of dialysis-receiving AKI were reported annually. The Cochran-Armitage test was used to assess trends in the incidence and short-term mortality after dialysis-receiving AKI. RESULTS: We identified 1394 children treated with dialysis for AKI during a hospital stay. There was a significant increase in the incidence of dialysis-receiving AKI among hospitalized children from 1996 (0.58 per 1000 person-years) to 2015 (0.65 per 1000 person-years) (P=0.01). The use of continuous kidney replacement therapy and intermittent hemodialysis increased whereas the relative use of peritoneal dialysis declined over time. Thirty-day mortality rates after dialysis-receiving AKI increased from 14% to 25% between 1996 and 2009 and reduced to 19% in the more recent years (P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In Ontario, the incidence of dialysis-receiving AKI among children has increased between 1996 and 2015. The use of peritoneal dialysis for AKI has declined and the short-term mortality after dialysis-receiving AKI has increased.

The Association of Kidney Function and Albuminuria With the Risk and Outcomes of Syncope: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The risks and subsequent outcomes of syncope among seniors with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are unclear. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of 272,146 patients ≥ 66 years old, in Ontario, Canada, from April 1, 2006, to March 31, 2016. Using administrative health care databases, we examined the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) with incident syncope and the association of incident syncope with the composite outcome of myocardial infarction, stroke, and death by levels of eGFR/ACR, using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 15,074 incident syncopal events occurred during the study period. The adjusted risk for syncope was higher with a lower eGFR and higher ACR in a stepwise manner (eGFR 60 to < 90: HR 1.17 [1.09-1.26] vs eGFR < 30: HR 1.67 (1.50-1.87) with eGFR ≥ 90 referent; ACR > 30: HR 1.15 [1.07-1.24] with ACR < 3 referent). Among the 12,710 patients with a first syncope event and 1 year of follow-up, the adjusted risk for the composite outcome was higher with a lower eGFR and higher ACR in a stepwise manner (eGFR 60 to < 90: HR 1.05 [0.90-1.22] vs eGFR < 30: HR 1.62 [1.34-1.96] with eGFR ≥ 90 referent; ACR > 30: HR 1.77 [1.60-1.96], ACR < 3 referent). CONCLUSIONS: A lower eGFR and higher ACR are associated with a higher risk of a hospital encounter for syncope and of related complications among persons of advanced age.

Albuminuria, Reduced Kidney Function, and the Risk of ST - and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction.

Background Chronic kidney disease is a recognized independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but whether the risks of ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction ( STEMI ) and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction ( NSTEMI ) differ in the chronic kidney disease population is unknown. Methods and Results Using administrative data from Ontario, Canada, we examined patients ≥66 years of age with an outpatient estimated glomerular filtration rate ( eGFR ) and albuminuria measure for incident myocardial infarction from 2002 to 2015. Adjusted Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard models accounting for the competing risk of death were used. In 248 438 patients with 1.2 million person-years of follow-up, STEMI , NSTEMI , and death occurred in 1436 (0.58%), 4431 (1.78%), and 30 015 (12.08%) patients, respectively. The highest level of albumin-to-creatinine ratio (>30 mg/mmol) was associated with a 2-fold higher adjusted risk of both STEMI and NSTEMI among patients with eGFR ≥60 mL/(min·1.73 m2) compared to albumin-to-creatinine ratio <3 mg/mmol. The lowest level of eGFR (<30 mL/[min·1.73 m2]) was not associated with higher STEMI risk but with a 4-fold higher risk of NSTEMI compared to those with eGFR ≥60 mL/(min·1.73 m2). The lowest eGFR (<30 mL/[min·1.73 m2]) and highest albumin-to-creatinine ratio (>30 mg/mmol) were associated with a greater than 4-fold higher risk of both STEMI and NSTEMI (subdistribution hazard models [95% confidence interval] 4.53 [3.30-6.21] and 4.42 [3.67-5.32], respectively) compared to albumin-to-creatinine ratio <3 mg/mmol and eGFR ≥60 mL/(min·1.73 m2). Conclusions Elevations in albuminuria are associated with a higher risk of both NSTEMI and STEMI , regardless of kidney function, whereas reduced kidney function alone is associated with a higher NSTEMI risk.

Hospital case volume and clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury treated with dialysis.

PURPOSE: To determine whether patients with severe acute kidney injury who receive dialysis (AKI-D) experience better outcomes at centres that care for more patients with AKI-D. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Linked administrative datasets where used to perform a retrospective cohort study of all critically ill patients in Ontario, Canada, who had a first episode of AKI-D between 2002 and 2011. Centre volume for a given year, was designated by calculating the mean number of patients treated with acute dialysis at that centre during that year and the one preceding it. Patients treated at that centre were then assigned to a centre volume quartile for that year. RESULTS: We identified 19,658 critically ill patients with AKI-D treated at 54 Ontario hospitals. Mortality and dialysis dependence at 90-days were 46% and 31%, respectively. Centre volume was not associated with mortality at 90 days (with quartile 1 as the reference, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.16 (95% CI, 0.87 - 1.54) in quartile 2, aOR 1.17 (95% CI, 0.91 - 1.50) in quartile 3, and aOR 1.06 (95% CI, 0.81 - 1.41) in quartile 4). CONCLUSIONS: There are no Centre volume survival associations in the management of AKI-D despite high mortality and dependence rate.

A prediction model to estimate completeness of electronic physician claims databases.

OBJECTIVES: Electronic physician claims databases are widely used for chronic disease research and surveillance, but quality of the data may vary with a number of physician characteristics, including payment method. The objectives were to develop a prediction model for the number of prevalent diabetes cases in fee-for-service (FFS) electronic physician claims databases and apply it to estimate cases among non-FFS (NFFS) physicians, for whom claims data are often incomplete. DESIGN: A retrospective observational cohort design was adopted. SETTING: Data from the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador were used to construct the prediction model and data from the province of Manitoba were used to externally validate the model. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of diagnosed diabetes cases was ascertained from physician claims, insured resident registry and hospitalisation records. A cohort of FFS physicians who were responsible for the diagnosis was ascertained from physician claims and registry data. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A generalised linear model with a γ distribution was used to model the number of diabetes cases per FFS physician as a function of physician characteristics. The expected number of diabetes cases per NFFS physician was estimated. RESULTS: The diabetes case cohort consisted of 31,714 individuals; the mean cases per FFS physician was 75.5 (median = 49.0). Sex and years since specialty licensure were significantly associated (p < 0.05) with the number of cases per physician. Applying the prediction model to NFFS physician registry data resulted in an estimate of 18,546 cases; only 411 were observed in claims data. The model demonstrated face validity in an independent data set. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing observed and predicted disease cases is a useful and generalisable approach to assess the quality of electronic databases for population-based research and surveillance.