Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error.

Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error. Uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the individual tests, and statistical fluctuations in the numbers of false positives and false negatives, will cause large uncertainty in the combined estimates of disease prevalence. In many cases this can be a source of significant bias. In this paper we develop a mathematical framework to characterise this issue, we determine expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of panel tests. In this we identify a counter-intuitive relationship between panel test sensitivity and disease prevalence that means panel tests become more sensitive as prevalence increases. We present novel statistical methods that adjust for bias and quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates from panel tests, and use simulations to test these methods. As multiplex testing becomes more commonly used for screening in routine clinical practice, accumulation of test error due to the combination of large numbers of test results needs to be identified and corrected for.

Syndromic case definitions for lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) are less sensitive in older age: an analysis of symptoms among hospitalised adults.

BACKGROUND: Lower Respiratory Tract Infections (LRTI) pose a serious threat to older adults but may be underdiagnosed due to atypical presentations. Here we assess LRTI symptom profiles and syndromic (symptom-based) case ascertainment in older (≥ 65y) as compared to younger adults (< 65y). METHODS: We included adults (≥ 18y) with confirmed LRTI admitted to two acute care Trusts in Bristol, UK from 1st August 2020- 31st July 2022. Logistic regression was used to assess whether age ≥ 65y reduced the probability of meeting syndromic LRTI case definitions, using patients' symptoms at admission. We also calculated relative symptom frequencies (log-odds ratios) and evaluated how symptoms were clustered across different age groups. RESULTS: Of 17,620 clinically confirmed LRTI cases, 8,487 (48.1%) had symptoms meeting the case definition. Compared to those not meeting the definition these cases were younger, had less severe illness and were less likely to have received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or to have active SARS-CoV-2 infection. Prevalence of dementia/cognitive impairment and levels of comorbidity were lower in this group. After controlling for sex, dementia and comorbidities, age ≥ 65y significantly reduced the probability of meeting the case definition (aOR = 0.67, 95% CI:0.63-0.71). Cases aged ≥ 65y were less likely to present with fever and LRTI-specific symptoms (e.g., pleurisy, sputum) than younger cases, and those aged ≥ 85y were characterised by lack of cough but frequent confusion and falls. CONCLUSIONS: LRTI symptom profiles changed considerably with age in this hospitalised cohort. Standard screening protocols may fail to detect older and frailer cases of LRTI based on their symptoms.

Influence of commissioned provider type and deprivation score on uptake of the childhood flu immunization.

BACKGROUND: Since 2015/16 the UK seasonal influenza immunization programme has included children aged 5 and 6 years. In the South West of England school-based providers, GPs or community pharmacies were commissioned to deliver the vaccine depending on the locality. We aimed to assess variation in vaccine uptake in relation to the type of commissioned provider, and levels of socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS: Data from the South West of England (2015-16 season) were analysed using multilevel logistic regression to assess variation in vaccine uptake by type of commissioned provider, allowing for clustering of children within delivery sites. RESULTS: Overall uptake in 5 and 6 year olds was 34.3% (37 555/109 404). Vaccine uptake was highest when commissioned through school-based programmes 50.2% (9983/19 867) and lowest when commissioned through pharmacies, 23.1% (4269/18 479). Delivery through schools resulted in less variation by site and equal uptake across age groups, in contrast to GP and pharmacy delivery for which uptake was lower among 6 year olds. Vaccine uptake decreased with increasing levels of deprivation across all types of commissioned provider. CONCLUSION: School-based programmes achieve the highest and most consistent rates of childhood influenza vaccination. Interventions are still needed to promote more equitable uptake of the childhood influenza vaccine.

Patients without records and records without patients: review of patient records in primary care and implications for surveillance of antibiotic prescribing in rural China.

BACKGROUND: We need to monitor patterns of antibiotic prescribing in order to develop and evaluate antibiotic stewardship interventions in rural China. As part of a multidisciplinary study of antibiotic use in Anhui Province we assessed the validity of electronic records (e-records) as a source of surveillance data. METHODS: One township healthcare centre and one village clinic were selected in each of three different counties. Patients with symptoms of Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) or Urinary Tract Infection (UTI) were recruited consecutively. Researchers observed and documented clinic consultations and interviewed each of the study participants. E-records were compared to clinic observations and patient interviews. RESULTS: A total of 1030 patients were observed in clinic. Antibiotics were prescribed in 917 (89%) of consultations. E-records were created only for individuals with health insurance, with considerable between-site variation in completeness (0 to 98.7% of clinic consultations) and in the timing of documentation (within-consultation up to weeks afterwards). E-record accuracy was better in relation to antibiotics (82.8% of e-records accurately recorded what was prescribed in clinic) than for diagnosis and symptoms (45.0 and 1.1% accuracy). Only 31 participants (3.0%) presented with UTI symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: We have confirmed very high rates of outpatient antibiotic prescribing in rural Anhui province. E-records could provide useful information to inform stewardship interventions, however they may be inaccurate and/or biased. Public Health authorities should focus on improving technical infrastructure and record-keeping culture in outpatient settings. Further research is needed into community treatment of UTIs.

Outbreak of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning associated with consumption of mussels, United Kingdom, May to June 2019.

We report on six cases of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning following consumption of mussels harvested in the United Kingdom. Dinophysis spp. in the water column was found to have increased rapidly at the production site resulting in high levels of okadaic acid-group lipophilic toxins in the flesh of consumed mussels. Clinicians and public health professionals should remain aware of algal-derived toxins being a potential cause of illness following seafood consumption.

Clonal expansion of community-associated meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in people who inject drugs (PWID): prevalence, risk factors and molecular epidemiology, Bristol, United Kingdom, 2012 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, Bristol (South West England) experienced a large increase in cases of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in people who inject drugs (PWID). AIM: We aimed to characterise and estimate the prevalence of MRSA colonisation among PWID in Bristol and test evidence of a clonal outbreak. METHODS: PWID recruited through an unlinked-anonymous community survey during 2016 completed behavioural questionnaires and were screened for MRSA. Univariable logistic regression examined associations with MRSA colonisation. Whole-genome sequencing used lineage-matched MRSA isolates, comparing PWID (screening and retrospective bacteraemia samples from 2012-2017) with non-PWID (Bristol screening) in Bristol and national reference laboratory database samples. RESULTS: The MRSA colonisation prevalence was 8.7% (13/149) and was associated with frequently injecting in public places (odds ratio (OR): 5.5; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.34-22.70), recent healthcare contact (OR: 4.3; 95% CI: 1.34-13.80) and injecting in groups of three or more (OR: 15.8; 95% CI: 2.51-99.28). People reporting any one of: injecting in public places, injection site skin and soft tissue infection or hospital contact accounted for 12/13 MRSA positive cases (sensitivity 92.3%; specificity 51.5%). Phylogenetic analysis identified a dominant clade associated with infection and colonisation among PWID in Bristol belonging to ST5-SCCmecIVg. CONCLUSIONS: MRSA colonisation in Bristol PWID is substantially elevated compared with general population estimates and there is evidence of clonal expansion, community-based transmission and increased infection risk related to the colonising strain. Targeted interventions, including community screening and suppression therapy, education and basic infection control are needed to reduce MRSA infections in PWID.

Ongoing outbreak of invasive and non-invasive disease due to group A Streptococcus (GAS) type emm66 among homeless and people who inject drugs in England and Wales, January to December 2016.

We report an outbreak of invasive and non-invasive disease due to an unusual type of Streptococcus pyogenes (group A Streptococcus, emm66) among a vulnerable, largely homeless population in southern England and Wales, detected in September 2016. Twenty-seven confirmed cases were subsequently identified between 5 January and 29 December 2016; 20 injected drugs and six reported problematic alcohol use. To date, we have ruled out drug-related vehicles of infection and identified few common risk factors.

COVID-19 cluster surveillance using exposure data collected from routine contact tracing: The genomic validation of a novel informatics-based approach to outbreak detection in England.

Contact tracing was used globally to prevent onwards transmission of COVID-19. Tracing contacts alone is unlikely to be sufficient in controlling community transmission, due to the pre-symptomatic, overdispersed and airborne nature of COVID-19 transmission. We describe and demonstrate the validity of a national enhanced contact tracing programme for COVID-19 cluster surveillance in England. Data on cases occurring between October 2020 and September 2021 were extracted from the national contact tracing system. Exposure clusters were identified algorithmically by matching ≥2 cases attending the same event, identified by matching postcode and event category within a 7-day rolling window. Genetic validity was defined as exposure clusters with ≥2 cases from different households with identical viral sequences. Exposure clusters were fuzzy matched to the national incident management system (HPZone) by postcode and setting description. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to determine cluster characteristics associated with genetic validity. Over a quarter of a million (269,470) exposure clusters were identified. Of the eligible clusters, 25% (3,306/13,008) were genetically valid. 81% (2684/3306) of these were not recorded on HPZone and were identified on average of one day earlier than incidents recorded on HPZone. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that exposure clusters occurring in workplaces (aOR = 5·10, 95% CI 4·23-6·17) and education (aOR = 3·72, 95% CI 3·08-4·49) settings were those most strongly associated with genetic validity. Cluster surveillance using enhanced contact tracing in England was a timely, comprehensive and systematic approach to the detection of transmission events occurring in community settings. Cluster surveillance can provide intelligence to stakeholders to support the assessment and management of clusters of COVID-19 at a local, regional, and national level. Future systems should include predictive modelling and network analysis to support risk assessment of exposure clusters to improve the effectiveness of enhanced contract tracing for outbreak detection.

A mixed methods analysis of participation in a social contact survey.

BACKGROUND: Social contact survey data forms a core component of modern epidemic models: however, there has been little assessment of the potential biases in such data. METHODS: We conducted focus groups with university students who had (n = 13) and had never (n = 14) completed a social contact survey during the COVID-19 pandemic. Qualitative findings were explored quantitatively by analysing participation data. RESULTS: The opportunity to contribute to COVID-19 research, to be heard and feel useful were frequently reported motivators for participating in the contact survey. Reductions in survey engagement following lifting of COVID-19 restrictions may have occurred because the research was perceived to be less critical and/or because the participants were busier and had more contacts. Having a high number of contacts to report, uncertainty around how to report each contact, and concerns around confidentiality were identified as factors leading to inaccurate reporting. Focus groups participants thought that financial incentives or provision of study results would encourage participation. CONCLUSIONS: Incentives could improve engagement with social contact surveys. Qualitative research can inform the format, timing, and wording of surveys to optimise completion and accuracy.

Monitoring occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in school populations: A wastewater-based approach.

Clinical testing of children in schools is challenging, with economic implications limiting its frequent use as a monitoring tool of the risks assumed by children and staff during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, a wastewater-based epidemiology approach has been used to monitor 16 schools (10 primary, 5 secondary and 1 post-16 and further education) in England. A total of 296 samples over 9 weeks have been analysed for N1 and E genes using qPCR methods. Of the samples returned, 47.3% were positive for one or both genes with a detection frequency in line with the respective local community. WBE offers a low cost, non-invasive approach for supplementing clinical testing and can provide longitudinal insights that are impractical with traditional clinical testing.

Environmental sampling for SARS-CoV-2 in long term care facilities: lessons from a pilot study.

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the risk of infection in long-term care facilities (LTCF) and the vulnerability of residents to severe outcomes. Environmental surveillance may help detect pathogens early and inform Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) measures in these settings. Methods: Upon notification of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, LTCF within a local authority in South West England were approached to take part in this pilot study. Investigators visited to swab common touch-points and elevated 'non-touch' surfaces (>1.5m above ground level) and samples were analysed for presence of SARS-CoV-2 genetic material (RNA). Data were collected regarding LTCF infrastructure, staff behaviours, clinical and epidemiological risk factors for infection (staff and residents), and IPC measures. Criteria for success were: recruitment of three LTCF; detection of SARS-COV-2 RNA; variation in proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive surfaces by sampling zone; and collection of clinical and epidemiological data for context. Results: Three LTCFs were recruited, ranging in size and resident demographics. Outbreaks lasted 63, 50 and 30 days with resident attack rates of 53%, 40% and 8%, respectively. The proportion of sample sites on which SARS-CoV-2 was detected was highest in rooms occupied by infected residents and varied elsewhere in the LTCF, with low levels in a facility implementing enhanced IPC measures. The heterogeneity of settings and difficulty obtaining data made it unfeasible to assess association between environmental contamination and infection. A greater proportion of elevated surfaces tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA than common touch-points. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in a variety of LTCF outbreak settings, both on common-touch items and in elevated sites out of reach. This suggests that further work is justified, to assess feasibility and utility of environmental sampling for infection surveillance in LTCF.

Contacts and behaviours of university students during the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of the 2020/2021 academic year.

University students have unique living, learning and social arrangements which may have implications for infectious disease transmission. To address this data gap, we created CONQUEST (COroNavirus QUESTionnaire), a longitudinal online survey of contacts, behaviour, and COVID-19 symptoms for University of Bristol (UoB) staff/students. Here, we analyse results from 740 students providing 1261 unique records from the start of the 2020/2021 academic year (14/09/2020-01/11/2020), where COVID-19 outbreaks led to the self-isolation of all students in some halls of residences. Although most students reported lower daily contacts than in pre-COVID-19 studies, there was heterogeneity, with some reporting many (median = 2, mean = 6.1, standard deviation = 15.0; 8% had ≥ 20 contacts). Around 40% of students' contacts were with individuals external to the university, indicating potential for transmission to non-students/staff. Only 61% of those reporting cardinal symptoms in the past week self-isolated, although 99% with a positive COVID-19 test during the 2 weeks before survey completion had self-isolated within the last week. Some students who self-isolated had many contacts (mean = 4.3, standard deviation = 10.6). Our results provide context to the COVID-19 outbreaks seen in universities and are available for modelling future outbreaks and informing policy.

Pathways to optimising antibiotic use in rural China: identifying key determinants in community and clinical settings, a mixed methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to investigate patterns of antibiotic treatment-seeking, describe current levels of and drivers for antibiotic use for common infections (respiratory tract and urinary tract infections) and test the feasibility of determining the prevalence and epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in rural areas of Anhui province, in order to identify potential interventions to promote antibiotic stewardship and reduce the burden of AMR in China. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct direct observations, structured and semistructured interviews in retail pharmacies, village clinics and township health centres to investigate treatment-seeking and antibiotic use. Clinical isolates from 1550 sputum, throat swab and urine samples taken from consenting patients at village and township health centres will be analysed to identify bacterial pathogens and ascertain antibiotic susceptibilities. Healthcare records will be surveyed for a subsample of those recruited to the study to assess their completeness and accuracy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The full research protocol has been reviewed and approved by the Biomedical Ethics Committee of Anhui Medical University (reference number: 20170271). Participation of patients and doctors is voluntary and written informed consent is sought from all participants. Findings from the study will be disseminated through academic routes including peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations, via tailored research summaries for health professionals, health service managers and policymakers and through an end of project impact workshop with local and regional stakeholders to identify key messages and priorities for action.

Outbreak of group A Streptococcus emm94.0 affecting people who inject drugs in southwest England, April 2017.

We report an outbreak of invasive and noninvasive group A Streptococcus during April 2017 among people who inject drugs in southwest England. To date we have identified 14 cases linked to a specific town, all confirmed as group A Streptococcus emm94.0, a strain type not previously reported in the area. We have yet to identify a source for this ongoing outbreak. Actions described here may help reduce the burden of infection in vulnerable populations.

Dissecting the mechanisms responsible for the multiple insecticide resistance phenotype in Anopheles gambiae s.s., M form, from Vallée du Kou, Burkina Faso.

With the exception of target site mutations, insecticide resistance mechanisms in the principle malaria vector Anopheles gambiae, remains largely uncharacterized in Burkina Faso. Here we detected high prevalence of resistance in Vallée du Kou (VK) to pyrethroids, DDT and dieldrin, moderate level for carbamates and full susceptibility to organophosphates. High frequencies of L1014F kdr (75%) and Rdl (87%) mutations were observed showing strong correlation with pyrethroids/DDT and dieldrin resistance. The frequency of ace1R mutation was low even in carbamate resistant mosquitoes. Microarray analysis identified genes significantly over-transcribed in VK. These include the cytochrome P450 genes, CYP6P3 and CYP6Z2, previously associated with pyrethroid resistance. Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis suggested that elevated neurotransmitter activity is associated with resistance, with the over-transcription of target site resistance genes such as acetylcholinesterase and the GABA receptor. A rhodopsin receptor gene previously associated with pyrethroid resistance in Culex pipiens pallens was also over-transcribed in VK. This study highlights the complex network of mechanisms conferring multiple resistance in malaria vectors and such information should be taken into account when designing and implementing resistance control strategies.