Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century.

A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability-the time of emergence (TOE)-is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1-14% (3-31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.

Precession modulation of the South Pacific westerly wind belt over the past million years.

The southern westerly wind belt (SWW) interacts with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and strongly impacts the Southern Ocean carbon budget, and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics across glacial-interglacial cycles. We investigated precipitation-driven sediment input changes to the Southeast Pacific off the southern margin of the Atacama Desert over the past one million years, revealing strong precession (19/23-ka) cycles. Our simulations with 2 ocean-atmosphere general circulation models suggest that observed cyclic rainfall changes are linked to meridional shifts in water vapor transport from the tropical Pacific toward the southern Atacama Desert. These changes reflect a precessional modulation of the split in the austral winter South Pacific jet stream. For precession maxima, we infer significantly enhanced rainfall in the southern Atacama Desert due to a stronger South Pacific split jet with enhanced subtropical/subpolar jets, and a weaker midlatitude jet. Conversely, we derive dry conditions in northern Chile related to reduced subtropical/subpolar jets and an enhanced midlatitude jet for precession minima. The presence of precessional cycles in the Pacific SWW, and lack thereof in other basins, indicate that orbital-scale changes of the SWW were not zonally homogeneous across the Southern Hemisphere, in contrast to the hemispherewide shifts of the SWW suggested for glacial terminations. The strengthening of the jet is unique to the South Pacific realm and might have affected winter-controlled changes in the mixed layer depth, the formation of intermediate water, and the buildup of sea-ice around Antarctica, with implications for the global overturning circulation and the oceanic storage of atmospheric CO2.

In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust-climate feedbacks.

Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial-interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust-climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust-climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial-interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust-climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial-interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles.

Coupled European and Greenland last glacial dust activity driven by North Atlantic climate.

Centennial-scale mineral dust peaks in last glacial Greenland ice cores match the timing of lowest Greenland temperatures, yet little is known of equivalent changes in dust-emitting regions, limiting our understanding of dust-climate interaction. Here, we present the most detailed and precise age model for European loess dust deposits to date, based on 125 accelerator mass spectrometry 14C ages from Dunaszekcso, Hungary. The record shows that variations in glacial dust deposition variability on centennial-millennial timescales in east central Europe and Greenland were synchronous within uncertainty. We suggest that precipitation and atmospheric circulation changes were likely the major influences on European glacial dust activity and propose that European dust emissions were modulated by dominant phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which had a major influence on vegetation and local climate of European dust source regions.

Metal concentrations and source identification in Chilean public children's playgrounds.

This study is focused on four Biobio region cities, Concepcion, Talcahuano, Los Ángeles, and Tomé; these cities flourished very close to different industrial activities. We determined a pseudo total concentration of seven heavy metals (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb) in playground soils through inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Principal components analysis (PCA) revealed that contamination in soils comes from three principal sources. Firstly, industrial and burning activities; secondly, the use of phytosanitary and chemical products; and thirdly, vehicular traffic emissions. Zn and Cu are the most abundant analyzed elements in all the playground's soils. Concepción reflected the lowest values of pollutants and Talcahuano the highest, reflecting the industrial effects. The average values of the analyzed elements were Cr = 32.90 mg kg-1; Ni = 23.76 mg kg-1; Cu = 31.51 mg kg-1; Zn = 63.69 mg kg-1; As = 19.51 mg kg-1; Cd = 0.50 mg kg-1; and Pb = 17.59 mg kg-1. Anomalously high values of some elements were found Cu = 462.73 mg kg-1, Zn = 364.39 mg kg-1, As = 34.7 mg kg-1 in Talcahuano, Cd = 1.6 mg kg-1 in Tome, and Pb = 55.59 mg kg-1 in Los Ángeles. Nevertheless, according to international guideline values of pollutants (VROM 2000 and ADEC 2010) there is no risk for children in any playground studied but all playgrounds are a potential risk for the environment. It points out the necessity to continue studying and monitoring Chilean urban playground to prevent health problems in the population. Graphical abstract.

Major atmospheric particulate matter sources for glaciers in Coquimbo Region, Chile.

Tapado Glacier is a subtropical mountain glacier in the Coquimbo region of Chile that has been continuously retreating during the last 60 years due to diminishing precipitation rates and rising temperatures and likely due to a currently unknown influence from atmospheric pollutant deposition. Climatic and meteorological impacts on this, and other, Andean glacier have been previously studied; however, cryosphere changes driven by aerosols are still largely unknown. To contribute to the understanding of the origin of aerosols and their dispersion, this study aims to identify natural and anthropogenic sources of air pollution deposited on the Tapado Glacier (4500-5536 m a.s.l.) and their transport by using a receptor model (positive matrix factorization) together with the concentration of major ions as proxies of air pollution deposited on this glacier. This model's outcomes were complemented with daily wind backward trajectories computed for a whole year using the HYSPLYT meteorological model. Four sources were identified as the main contributors to major soluble ions in the Tapado surface snow. These sources are natural Aeolian dust (38%) from the Atacama Desert (including mining sites), natural weathered sulphates (27%), anthropogenic nitrates (25%), and coastal aerosols (10%). Coastal nitrate emissions and coastal aerosols are both sources with an important anthropogenic component, coming from La Serena and Coquimbo's coastal cities. The crustal components and sulphate profiles are similar to detritus dispersed from the glacier after wind erosion. Although the glacier is located over 4000 m above sea level, anthropogenic pollutants reached this location. However, their contributions were smaller compared to natural contaminants. Our findings can likely be extended to the nearest glaciers in Northern Chile, which have similar potential contaminant sources from cities, ports, and thriving mining activity. However, these findings may not be suitable for southern Chilean glaciers, which are closer to bigger cities and to smoke from residential heating prevalent in winter months and wildfires during the summer.

Radiocarbon bomb-peak signal in tree-rings from the tropical Andes register low latitude atmospheric dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere.

South American tropical climate is strongly related to the tropical low-pressure belt associated with the South American monsoon system. Despite its central societal role as a modulating agent of rainfall in tropical South America, its long-term dynamical variability is still poorly understood. Here we combine a new (and world's highest) tree-ring 14C record from the Altiplano plateau in the central Andes with other 14C records from the Southern Hemisphere during the second half of the 20th century in order to elucidate the latitudinal gradients associated with the dissemination of the bomb 14C signal. Our tree-ring 14C record faithfully captured the bomb signal of the 1960's with an excellent match to atmospheric 14C measured in New Zealand but with significant differences with a recent record from Southeast Brazil located at almost equal latitude. These results imply that the spreading of the bomb signal throughout the Southern Hemisphere was a complex process that depended on atmospheric dynamics and surface topography generating reversals on the expected north-south gradient in certain years. We applied air-parcel modeling based on climate data to disentangle their different geographical provenances and their preformed (reservoir affected) radiocarbon content. We found that air parcel trajectories arriving at the Altiplano during the bomb period were sourced i) from the boundary layer in contact with the Pacific Ocean (41%), ii) from the upper troposphere (air above the boundary layer, with no contact with oceanic or continental carbon reservoirs) (38%) and iii) from the Amazon basin (21%). Based on these results we estimated the ∆14C endmember values for the different carbon reservoirs affecting our record which suggest that the Amazon basin biospheric 14C isoflux could have been reversed from negative to positive as early as the beginning of the 1970's. This would imply a much faster carbon turnover rate in the Amazon than previously modelled.

Contaminant emissions as indicators of chemical elements in the snow along a latitudinal gradient in southern Andes.

The chemical composition of snow provides insights on atmospheric transport of anthropogenic contaminants at different spatial scales. In this study, we assess how human activities influence the concentration of elements in the Andean mountain snow along a latitudinal transect throughout Chile. The concentration of seven elements (Al, Cu, Fe, Li, Mg, Mn and Zn) was associated to gaseous and particulate contaminants emitted at different spatial scales. Our results indicate carbon monoxide (CO) averaged at 20 km and nitrogen oxide (NOx) at 40 km as the main indicators of the chemical elements analyzed. CO was found to be a significant predictor of most element concentrations while concentrations of Cu, Mn, Mg and Zn were positively associated to emissions of NOx. Emission of 2.5 µm and 10 µm particulate matter averaged at different spatial scales was positively associated to concentration of Li. Finally, the concentration of Zn was positively associated to volatile organic compounds (VOC) averaged at 40 km around sampling sites. The association between air contaminants and chemical composition of snow suggests that regions with intensive anthropogenic pollution face reduced quality of freshwater originated from glacier and snow melting.

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core.

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long--28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Multidecadal environmental pollution in a mega-industrial area in central Chile registered by tree rings.

One of the most polluted areas in Chile is the Ventanas Industrial Area (VIA; 32.74°S / 71.48°W), which started in 1958 and today comprises around 16 industries in an area of ca. 4 km2. A lack of consistent long-term instrumental records precludes assessing the history of contamination in the area and also limits the evaluation of mitigation actions taken since the late 1980s. Here, we use dendrochemistry as an environmental proxy to analyze environmental changes over several decades at the VIA. We present chemical measurements of tree rings from planted, exotic Cupressus macrocarpa growing near the VIA with 4-year resolution over a period of 52 years (1960-2011). These data provide unprecedented information on regional anthropogenic pollution and are compared with a tree-ring elemental record of 48 years (1964-2011) from the Isla Negra (INE) control site not exposed to VIA emissions. For the 48 years of overlap between both sites, higher concentrations of Zn, V, Co, Cd, Ag, Fe, Cr, and Al were especially registered after the year 2000 at VIA compared to INE for the periods under study. Concentrations of Pb, Cu, As, Fe, Mo, Cr, and Zn increased through time, particularly over the period 1980-1990. Decontamination plans activated in 1992 appear to have had a positive effect on the amount of some elements, but the chemical concentration in the tree rings suggest continued accumulation of pollutants in the environment. Only after several years of implementation of the mitigation measures have some elements tended to decrease in concentration, especially at the end of the evaluated period. Dendrochemistry is a useful tool to provide a long-term perspective of the dynamics of trace metal pollution and represents a powerful approach to monitor air quality variability to extend the instrumental records back in time.

Black carbon and other light-absorbing impurities in snow in the Chilean Andes.

Vertical profiles of black carbon (BC) and other light-absorbing impurities were measured in seasonal snow and permanent snowfields in the Chilean Andes during Austral winters 2015 and 2016, at 22 sites between latitudes 18°S and 41°S. The samples were analyzed for spectrally-resolved visible light absorption. For surface snow, the average mass mixing ratio of BC was 15 ng/g in northern Chile (18-33°S), 28 ng/g near Santiago (a major city near latitude 33°S, where urban pollution plays a significant role), and 13 ng/g in southern Chile (33-41°S). The regional average vertically-integrated loading of BC was 207 µg/m2 in the north, 780 µg/m2 near Santiago, and 2500 µg/m2 in the south, where the snow season was longer and the snow was deeper. For samples collected at locations where there had been no new snowfall for a week or more, the BC concentration in surface snow was high (~10-100 ng/g) and the sub-surface snow was comparatively clean, indicating the dominance of dry deposition of BC. Mean albedo reductions due to light-absorbing impurities were 0.0150, 0.0160, and 0.0077 for snow grain radii of 100 µm for northern Chile, the region near Santiago, and southern Chile; respective mean radiative forcings for the winter months were 2.8, 1.4, and 0.6 W/m2. In northern Chile, our measurements indicate that light-absorption by impurities in snow was dominated by dust rather than BC.

Elemental and Mineralogical Composition of the Western Andean Snow (18°S-41°S).

The snowpack is an important source of water for many Andean communities. Because of its importance, elemental and mineralogical composition analysis of the Andean snow is a worthwhile effort. In this study, we conducted a chemical composition analysis (major and trace elements, mineralogy, and chemical enrichment) of surface snow sampled at 21 sites across a transect of about 2,500 km in the Chilean Andes (18-41°S). Our results enabled us to identify five depositional environments: (i) sites 1-3 (in the Atacama Desert, 18-26°S) with relatively high concentrations of metals, high abundance of quartz and low presence of arsenates, (ii) sites 4-8 (in northern Chile, 29-32°S) with relatively high abundance of quartz and low presence of metals and arsenates, (iii) sites 9-12 (in central Chile, 33-35°S) with anthropogenic enrichment of metals, relatively high values of quartz and low abundance of arsenates, (iv) sites 13-14 (also in central Chile, 35-37°S) with relatively high values of quartz and low presence of metals and arsenates, and v) sites 15-21 (in southern Chile, 37-41°S) with relatively high abundance of arsenates and low presence of metals and quartz. We found significant anthropogenic enrichment at sites close to Santiago (a major city of 6 million inhabitants) and in the Atacama Desert (that hosts several major copper mines).

Proxies and measurement techniques for mineral dust in Antarctic ice cores.

To improve quantitative interpretation of ice core aeolian dust records, a systematic methodological comparison was made. This involved methods for water-insoluble particle counting (Coulter counter and laser-sensing particle detector), soluble ion analysis (ion chromatography and continuous flow analysis), elemental analysis (inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy at pH 1 and after full acid digestion), and water-insoluble elemental analysis (proton induced X-ray emission). Antarctic ice core samples covering the last deglaciation from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and the EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) cores were used. All methods correlate very well among each other, but the ratios of glacial age to Holocene concentrations, which are typically a factor approximately 100, differ between the methods by up to a factor of 2 with insoluble particles showing the largest variability. The recovery of ICP-MS measurements depends on the digestion method and is differentfor different elements and during different climatic periods. EDC and EDML samples have similar dust composition, which suggests a common dust source or a common mixture of sources for the two sites. The analyzed samples further reveal a change of dust composition during the last deglaciation.