The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins.

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.

Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models.

We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state.

The national public health performance standards: driving quality improvement in public health systems.

Since its inception in 1998, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Public Health Performance Standards Program (NPHPSP) has helped lay the groundwork for public health quality improvement (QI) activities at the state and local levels. This article describes how the NPHPSP has promoted QI through its instruments and guidance and how it has continually strengthened the focus on QI over the years. The NPHPSP Version 2 instruments and enhanced guidance have been designed to more strongly reinforce QI and catalyze the transition from assessment to action. Despite positive reports from some state and local users that emphasize the value the NPHPSP holds for those that do successfully move forward with improvement actions, 2005 evaluation results from the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials and the National Association of County and City Health Officials indicated challenges in transitioning the assessments results into performance improvement. More recent data are promising; a 2009 postassessment survey of early Version 2 respondents indicates that the majority (75% of all respondents) report action in one or more performance improvement steps. The NPHPSP has played an important role in fostering QI in many states and local jurisdictions. Furthermore, its experiences and lessons learned in supporting QI have helped to pave the way for other initiatives, such as the emerging national accreditation system for state and local health departments.

Self-assessment of public health essential services among Illinois local health department administrators.

This article uses data from a study commissioned by the Illinois Public Health Institute in 2007 as part of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Multistate Learning Collaborative Grant for exploring accreditation of health departments. Local health departments in Illinois were surveyed on their self-assessed performance in meeting a set of performance standards derived from the Illinois Practice Standards and the Operational Definition of a Functional Local Health Department. All state-certified local health departments were represented in the survey by the 81 respondents. The lowest scores were observed in the evaluate standard (evaluate programs and provide quality assurance in accordance with applicable professional and regulatory standards to ensure that programs are consistent with plans and policies, and provide feedback on inadequacies and changes needed to redirect programs and resources). The findings suggest that new approaches are needed to better integrate evaluation in local health departments beginning with training designed specifically for and informed by local health department administrators.

Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn.

Autumn sea ice trends in the western Ross Sea dominate increases in Antarctic sea ice and are outside the range simulated by climate models. Here we use a number of independent data sets to show that variability in western Ross Sea autumn ice conditions is largely driven by springtime zonal winds in the high latitude South Pacific, with a lead-time of 5 months. Enhanced zonal winds dynamically thin the ice, allowing an earlier melt out, enhanced solar absorption, and reduced ice cover the next autumn. This seasonal lag relationship has implications for sea ice prediction. Given a weakening trend in springtime zonal winds, this lagged relationship can also explain an important fraction of the observed sea ice increase. An analysis of climate models indicates that they simulate weaker relationships and wind trends than observed. This contributes to weak western Ross Sea ice trends in climate model simulations.Antarctic sea ice extent continues to increase, with autumn sea ice advances in the western Ross Sea particularly anomalous. Here, based on analysis of independent datasets, the authors show that springtime zonal winds in the high latitude South Pacific drive western Ross Sea autumn sea ice conditions.

Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.

Public health laws and implications for a national accreditation program: parallel roadways without intersection?

Public health law has been one of the leading contributors to the extension of life expectancy in the 20th century. Nonetheless, the legal infrastructure supporting public health law in the United States is underdeveloped and nonuniform. With national interest growing in public health agency accreditation, the individual legal approach taken by states may pose an obstacle to wholesale adoption of a proposed voluntary national model. This article describes the legal foundations supporting accreditation or assessment programs in states participating in the Multi-State Learning Collaborative, a project funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The Turning Point Model State Public Health Act is recommended as one option to resolve the current impasse, assist in acceptance of a national accreditation model, and provide a common public health legal infrastructure.

Local public health certification and accreditation in Illinois: blending the old and the new.

Funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation through the Multi-State Learning Collaborative, the Illinois Accreditation Development Project is developing a proposal to reengineer the 15-year-old Illinois local health department certification process. The Project is addressing a variety of political, technical, and resource issues in its attempt to develop a new approach to a mature program that will incorporate more meaningful performance and capacity measures for all local public health practice standards. Both statewide strategic planning and the evolving national momentum toward local public health agency accreditation are motivating the enhancements to the Illinois program. A new proposal that blends the current mandatory certification program with a new voluntary local public health accreditation program is discussed. The proposed new structure enhances the state-operated certification program with specific performance measures and creates a three-tiered voluntary accreditation process governed by a third party accreditation board.

The multistate learning collaborative, states as laboratories: informing the national public health accreditation dialogue.

The Multistate Learning Collaborative on Performance and Capacity Assessment or Accreditation of Public Health Departments (MLC) is an initiative undertaken with the Exploring Accreditation Project (EAP). The EAP is jointly funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and staffed collaboratively by the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO) and the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO) to explore the implications and feasibility of a national public health accreditation system. The MLC, also financially supported through grants from RWJF, is designed under the auspices of the National Network of Public Health Institutes (NNPHI) and the Public Health Leadership Society (PHLS) to enhance the accreditation/assessment activities already underway in each of the grantee states; to promote learning among the states participating in the collaborative; to disseminate information to state and local health departments nationally; and to inform the work of the EAP. Five states with mature accreditation or assessment programs were selected from among 18 applicants. This article describes the ongoing work, including breakthroughs and challenges, in these natural "laboratories" so that this information may be a resource for other states as well as nationally.

Developing national performance standards for local public health systems.

Since the beginning of the 1990s, public health has struggled to measure its performance and capacity to carry out the core functions of public health practice, while facing increasing challenges within the ever-changing landscape of healthcare delivery, bioterrorism response, emerging infections, and other threats to the public's health. The article describes the development of a set of national performance standards for measuring how effectively public health systems deliver the 10 Essential Public Health Services. The standards were developed through a practice-driven approach that incorporated comprehensive field testing and iterative revisions. The standards represent a national consensus framework for measuring important aspects of public health practice.

Managing complex systems: performance management in public health.

The complexity of mobilizing and managing systems-wide public health responses has prompted Turning Point's Performance Management National Excellence Collaborative, funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, to develop a conceptual framework for performance management in public health. The framework has four integrated parts: (1) performance standards, (2) performance measures, (3) reporting of progress, and (4) a quality improvement process. The Collaborative based its framework on evidence gathered through a survey of current state performance management practices, a literature review, and its investigation of current practice models. This balanced and cohesive management model can be constructively used by public health programs, organizations, and community and state public health systems.