Factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 testing, diagnosis and COVID-19 disease among individuals prescribed opioid-agonist treatment: a nationwide retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Among people receiving opioid-agonist treatment (OAT), the risk of COVID-19 infection and disease may be higher owing to underlying health problems and vulnerable social circumstances. We aimed to determine whether recent OAT, compared to past exposure, affected risk of (i) testing for SARS-CoV-2, (ii) testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and (iii) being hospitalized/dying with COVID-19 disease. METHODS: We included individuals prescribed OAT in Scotland between 2015 and 2020. We performed record linkage to SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, vaccination, hospitalization, and mortality data, and followed up from March-2020 to December-2021. We used proportional hazards analysis and multivariate logistic regression to estimate associations between recent OAT prescription (in the previous two months), compared to past exposure (off treatment for over a year), and COVID-19 outcomes. Models were adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Among 36,093 individuals prescribed OAT, 19,071 (52.9%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2, 2,896 (8.3%) tested positive and 552 (1.5%) were hospitalized/died with COVID-19. Recent OAT, compared to past exposure, was associated with lower odds of testing positive among those tested (aOR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.57, 0.69). However, among those testing positive, recent OAT was associated with two-fold higher odds of hospitalization/death (aOR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.60, 2.59). CONCLUSION: We found that recent OAT was associated with lower odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but with higher odds of disease once diagnosed. Clinical studies are needed to unravel the role of OAT in these associations. Enhanced effort is warranted to increase vaccine coverage among OAT patients to mitigate severe consequences of COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine uptake and risks of severe COVID-19 disease among people prescribed opioid agonist therapy in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence quantifying the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among people with opioid dependence. We examined vaccine uptake and severe disease (admission to critical care or death with COVID-19) among individuals prescribed opioid agonist therapy (OAT). METHOD: A case-control design was used to examine vaccine uptake in those prescribed OAT compared with the general population, and the association between severe disease and OAT. In both analyses, 10 controls from the general population were matched (to each OAT recipient and COVID-19 case, respectively) according to socio-demographic factors. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate rate ratios (RR) for severe disease. RESULTS: Vaccine uptake was markedly lower in the OAT cohort (dose 1: 67%, dose 2: 53% and dose 3: 31%) compared with matched controls (76%, 72% and 57%, respectively). Those prescribed OAT within the last 5 years, compared with those not prescribed, had increased risk of severe COVID-19 (RR 3.38, 95% CI 2.75 to 4.15), particularly in the fourth wave (RR 6.58, 95% CI 4.20 to 10.32); adjustment for comorbidity and vaccine status attenuated this risk (adjusted RR (aRR) 2.43, 95% CI 1.95 to 3.02; wave 4 aRR 3.78, 95% CI 2.30 to 6.20). Increased risk was also observed for those prescribed OAT previously (>3 months ago) compared with recently (aRR 1.74, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.71). CONCLUSIONS: The widening gap in vaccine coverage for those prescribed OAT, compared with the general population, is likely to have exacerbated the risk of severe COVID-19 in this population over the pandemic. However, continued OAT use may have provided protection from severe COVID-19 among those with opioid dependence.

Prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland 2015-2020: A multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Drug-related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15-64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20. DESIGN: We fitted a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) model, using adverse event rates to estimate prevalence of opioid dependence jointly from Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), opioid-related mortality and hospital admissions data. Estimates are stratified by age group, sex and year. SETTING: Scotland, 2014/15 to 2019/20. PARTICIPANTS: People with opioid dependence and potential to benefit from OAT, whether ever treated or not. Using data from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme, we identified a baseline cohort of individuals who had received OAT within the last 5 years, and all opioid-related deaths and hospital admissions (whether among or outside of this cohort). MEASUREMENTS: Rates of each adverse event type and (unobserved) prevalence were jointly modelled. FINDINGS: The estimated number and prevalence of people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2019/20 was 47 100 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 45 700 to 48 600) and 1.32% (95% CrI 1.28% to 1.37%). Of these, 61% received OAT during 2019/20. Prevalence in Greater Glasgow and Clyde was estimated as 1.77% (95% CrI 1.69% to 1.85%). There was weak evidence that overall prevalence fell slightly from 2014/15 (change -0.07%, 95% CrI -0.14% to 0.00%). The population of people with opioid dependence is ageing, with the estimated number of people aged 15-34 reducing by 5100 (95% CrI 3800 to 6400) and number aged 50-64 increasing by 2800 (95% CrI 2100 to 3500) between 2014/15 and 2019/20. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland remained high but was relatively stable, with only weak evidence of a small reduction, between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Increased numbers of opioid-related deaths can be attributed to increased risk among people with opioid dependence, rather than increasing prevalence.

Randomized controlled trial: Flexible sigmoidoscopy as an adjunct to faecal occult blood testing in population screening.

OBJECTIVES: Flexible sigmoidoscopy screening at around age 60 can reduce colorectal cancer incidence. Insufficient evidence exists on flexible sigmoidoscopy at age 60 in a population being offered biennial faecal occult blood test screening from age 50. This randomized controlled trial assessed if flexible sigmoidoscopy would be an effective adjunct to faecal occult blood test. METHODS: In the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme between June 2014 and December 2015, 51,769 individuals were randomized to be offered flexible sigmoidoscopy instead of faecal occult blood test at age 60 or to continue faecal occult blood test. Those not accepting flexible sigmoidoscopy and those with normal flexible sigmoidoscopy were offered faecal occult blood test. All with flexible sigmoidoscopy-detected neoplasia or a positive faecal occult blood test result were offered colonoscopy. RESULTS: Overall flexible sigmoidoscopy uptake was 17.8%, higher in men than women, and decreased with increasing deprivation (25.7% in the least to 9.2% in the most deprived quintile). In those who underwent flexible sigmoidoscopy, detection rate for colorectal cancer was 0.13%, for adenoma 7.27%, and for total neoplasia 7.40%. In those who underwent colonoscopy after a positive flexible sigmoidoscopy, detection rate for colorectal cancer was 0.28%, adenoma 8.66%, and total neoplasia 8.83%. On an intention to screen basis, there was no difference in colorectal cancer detection rate between the study and control groups. Adenoma and total neoplasia detection rate were significantly higher in the study group, with odds ratios of 5.95 (95%CI: 4.69-7.56) and 5.10 (95%CI: 4.09-6.35), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a single screening round at age 60, there was low uptake and neoplasia detection rate. Flexible sigmoidoscopy detected significantly more neoplasia than faecal occult blood test alone.

Interval cancers using a quantitative faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for haemoglobin when colonoscopy capacity is limited.

OBJECTIVES: Quantitative faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) for faecal haemoglobin (f-Hb) in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening pose challenges when colonoscopy is limited. For low positivity rates, high f-Hb concentration cut-offs are required, but little is known about interval cancer (IC) proportions using FIT. We assessed IC proportions using an 80 µg Hb/g cut-off. METHODS: In two NHS Boards in the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme, f-Hb was estimated for 30,893 participants aged 50-75, of whom 753 participants with f-Hb ≥ 80 µg Hb/g were referred for colonoscopy. ICs, defined as CRC within two years of a negative result, were identified from the Scottish Cancer Registry. RESULTS: There were 31 ICs and 30 screen-detected (SD) CRCs, an IC proportion of 50.8% (48.4% for men, 53.3% for women). CRC site distribution was similar between ICs and SD, but ICs were later stage (46.7% and 33.3%, Dukes' stages C and D, respectively). Of 31 ICs, 23 had f-Hb < 10 µg Hb/g, including six with undetectable f-Hb. A f-Hb cut-off of 10 µg Hb/g would have raised the positivity rate from 2.4% to 9.4%, increased colonoscopy requirement from 753 to 2147, and reduced the IC proportion to 38.3%. CONCLUSIONS: The IC proportion was similar to that seen with guaiac-based FOBT. The later stage distribution of ICs highlights the benefits of lower f-Hb cut-offs, but with 19.4% of ICs having undetectable f-Hb, some cancers would have been missed, even with drastic reduction in the f-Hb cut-off.

Interval cancers in a national colorectal cancer screening programme.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about interval cancers (ICs) in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to identify IC characteristics and compare these with screen-detected cancers (SCs) and cancers in non-participants (NPCs) over the same time period. DESIGN: This was an observational study done in the first round of the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme. All individuals (772,790), aged 50-74 years, invited to participate between 1 January 2007 and 31 May 2009 were studied by linking their screening records with confirmed CRC records in the Scottish Cancer Registry (SCR). Characteristics of SC, IC and NPC were determined. RESULTS: There were 555 SCs, 502 ICs and 922 NPCs. SCs were at an earlier stage than ICs and NPCs (33.9% Dukes' A as against 18.7% in IC and 11.3% in NPC), screening preferentially detected cancers in males (64.7% as against 52.8% in IC and 59.7% in NPC): this was independent of a different cancer site distribution in males and females. SC in the colon were less advanced than IC, but not in the rectum. CONCLUSION: ICs account for 47.5% of the CRCs in the screened population, indicating approximately 50% screening test sensitivity: guaiac faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) sensitivity is less for women than for men and gFOBT screening may not be effective for rectal cancer.

Descriptive epidemiology of cancer of unknown primary site in Scotland, 1961-2010.

BACKGROUND: Cancers of unknown primary site (CUP) pose problems for diagnosis, treatment, and accurate prediction of prognosis. However, there are limited published data describing the epidemiology of this disease entity. Our aim was to describe the epidemiology of CUP in Scotland. METHODS: Anonymised data, covering the period 1961-2010, were extracted from the Scottish Cancer Registry database, based on the following ICD-10 diagnostic codes: C26.0, C26.8, C26.9, C39, and C76-C80. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated by direct standardisation to the World Standard Population. Estimates of observed survival were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Between 1961 and 2010, there were 50,941 registrations of CUP, representing 3.9% of all registrations of invasive cancers. Age-standardised rates increased to a peak in the early to mid-1990s, followed by a steeper decrease in rates. During 2001-2010, age-standardised rates of CUP were higher in the most compared with the least deprived fifth of the population. Observed survival was marginally higher in patients diagnosed during 2001-2010 (median 5.6 weeks) compared with those diagnosed in the previous two decades. During the most recent decade, survival decreased with age at diagnosis, and was higher in patients with squamous cell carcinoma and with lymph node metastases. CONCLUSION: Patterns of CUP in Scotland are largely consistent with those reported from the few other countries that have published data. However, in comparing studies, it is important to note that there is heterogeneity in terms of definition of CUP, as well as calendar period of diagnosis or death. Variation in the definition of CUP between different epidemiological studies suggests that there would be merit in seeking international agreement on guidelines for the registration of CUP as well as a standard grouping of diagnostic codes for analysis.