Development and validation of a machine learning-based postpartum depression prediction model: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Currently, postpartum depression (PPD) screening is mainly based on self-report symptom-based assessment, with lack of an objective, integrative tool which identifies women at increased risk, before the emergent of PPD. We developed and validated a machine learning-based PPD prediction model utilizing electronic health record (EHR) data, and identified novel PPD predictors. METHODS: A nationwide longitudinal cohort that included 214,359 births between January 2008 and December 2015, divided into model training and validation sets, was constructed utilizing Israel largest health maintenance organization's EHR-database. PPD was defined as new diagnosis of a depressive episode or antidepressant prescription within the first year postpartum. A gradient-boosted decision tree algorithm was applied to EHR-derived sociodemographic, clinical, and obstetric features. RESULTS: Among the birth cohort, 1.9% (n = 4104) met the case definition of new-onset PPD. In the validation set, the prediction model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.712 (95% confidence interval, 0.690-0.733), with a sensitivity of 0.349 and a specificity of 0.905 at the 90th percentile risk threshold, identifying PPDs at a rate more than three times higher than the overall set (positive and negative predictive values were 0.074 and 0.985, respectively). The model's strongest predictors included both well-recognized (e.g., past depression) and less-recognized (differing patterns of blood tests) PPD risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning-based models incorporating EHR-derived predictors, could augment symptom-based screening practice by identifying the high-risk population at greatest need for preventive intervention, before development of PPD.

Association between prenatal exposure to a 1-month period of repeated rocket attacks and neuropsychiatric outcomes up through age 9: a retrospective cohort study.

Exposure to gestational stress is implicated in increased risk for neuropsychiatric disorders in offspring. We assessed association between prenatal exposure to a 1-month period of repeated rocket attacks during the 2006 Second Lebanon War in Northern Israel and emergence of childhood neuropsychiatric disorders from birth through 9 years of age. Children born to women who were pregnant during the war (N = 6999) were identified and compared to children in the same district born a year later (N = 7054), whose mothers were not exposed to rocket attacks during pregnancy. Multivariable regression models assessed risk for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, autism, epilepsy, depression and/or anxiety, or any of these disorders (composite outcome) in offspring. Models controlled for multiple confounders including parents' demographics, parity, maternal use of psychotropic medications during pregnancy, post-partum depression and parental psychiatric history. Results show that exposed and comparison groups did not differ with respect to demographics, parity or psychiatric history. Exposed and comparison groups were similar with regard to gestational age and weight at birth. Multivariable models did not demonstrate an association between exposure to rocket attacks during pregnancy and neuropsychiatric outcomes by age 9. No interactions were found between exposure and gestational trimester at exposure or child's sex. Our findings suggest that in utero exposure to isolated, 1-month repeated rocket attacks on a civilian population was not associated with major neuropsychiatric outcomes in children by age 9. Future studies should evaluate whether this exposure is associated with psychiatric and/or other health-related outcomes later in life.

Gestational hemodilution as a putative risk factor for postpartum depression: A large-scale nationwide longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While anemia during pregnancy has been linked to increased postpartum depression (PPD) risk, longitudinal studies on the association between gestational hemodilution, represented by decreased hematocrit (Hct) during the transition from the 1st to 2nd trimester, and PPD risk, are scarce. The current study aimed to investigate this association in a nationwide cohort over the perinatal period. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 104,715 women who gave birth between January 2008 and December 2015. The cohort was followed up for new-onset PPD during the year post birth and gestational hemodilution was assessed by the change in Hct levels (Δ: 2nd-1st trimester). The cohort was divided into three hemodilution groupings: maximal and minimal 10 % of mothers and intermediate 80 %. Multivariable regression analyses were performed to estimate the association between gestational hemodilution and PPD, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Among the full cohort, 2.2 % (n = 2263) met the definition of new-onset PPD. Mothers with greater hemodilution had higher rates of PPD: 2.7 % (n = 269) in the maximal hemodilution group, 2.1 % (n = 1783) in the intermediate and 1.9 % (n = 211) in the minimal hemodilution group (p < 0.001). The maximal hemodilution group had higher rates of pre-gestational psychiatric disorders (p < 0.001) and higher adjusted risk for PPD [OR = 1.18, 95 % CI (1.04, 1.35)]. LIMITATIONS: Data on iron levels and supplementation were unavailable, thus it could not be adjusted for in the analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Women in the top 10th percentile of gestational hemodilution may be at risk for PPD, justifying monitoring of gestational Hct as a biomarker for PPD.

Comparison of FOLFIRINOX vs Gemcitabine Plus Nab-Paclitaxel as First-Line Chemotherapy for Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

Importance: FOLFIRINOX (leucovorin calcium [folinic acid], fluorouracil, irinotecan hydrochloride, and oxaliplatin) and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel are the 2 common first-line therapies for metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (mPC), but they have not been directly compared in a clinical trial, and comparative clinical data analyses on their effectiveness are limited. Objective: To compare the FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel treatments of mPC in clinical data and evaluate whether there are differences in overall survival and posttreatment complications between them. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, nonrandomized comparative effectiveness study used data from the AIM Specialty Health-Anthem Cancer Care Quality Program and from administrative claims of commercially insured patients, spanning 388 outpatient centers and clinics for medical oncology located in 44 states across the US. Effectiveness and safety of the treatments were analyzed by matching or adjusting for age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, ECOG performance status (PS) score, Social Deprivation Index (SDI), liver and lymph node metastasis, prior radiotherapy or surgical procedures, and year of treatment. Patients with mPC treated between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, and followed up until June 30, 2020, were included in the analysis. Interventions: Initiation of treatment with FOLFIRINOX or gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were overall survival and posttreatment costs and hospitalization. Median survival time was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates adjusted with inverse probability of treatment weighting and 1:1 matching. Results: Among the 1102 patients included in the analysis (618 men [56.1%]; median age, 60.0 [IQR, 55.5-63.7] years), those treated with FOLFIRINOX were younger (median age, 59.1 [IQR, 53.9-63.3] vs 61.2 [IQR, 57.2-64.3] years; P < .001), with better PS scores (226 [39.9%] with PS of 0 in the FOLFIRINOX group vs 176 [32.8%] in the gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel group; P = .02), fewer comorbidities (median Charlson Comorbidity Index, 0.0 [IQR, 0.0-1.0] vs 1.0 [IQR, 0.0-1.0]), and lower SDI (median, 36.0 [IQR, 16.2-61.0] vs 42.0 [IQR, 23.8-66.2]). After adjustments, the median overall survival was 9.27 (IQR, 8.74-9.76) and 6.87 (IQR, 6.41-7.66) months for patients treated with FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel, respectively (P < .001). This survival benefit was observed among all subgroups, including different ECOG PS scores, ages, SDIs, and metastatic sites. FOLFIRINOX-treated patients also had 17.3% fewer posttreatment hospitalizations (P = .03) and 20% lower posttreatment costs (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness cohort study, FOLFIRINOX was associated with improved survival of approximately 2 months compared with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel and was also associated with fewer posttreatment complications. A randomized clinical trial comparing these first-line treatments is warranted to test the survival and posttreatment hospitalization (or complications) benefit of FOLFIRINOX compared with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel.

Use of the Whole Country Insulin Consumption Data in Israel to Determine the Prevalence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children <5 Years of Age Before and During Rotavirus Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies showed that rotavirus vaccination may affect the prevalence of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of early childhood (<5 years) T1D before and during the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Israel by syndromic surveillance. METHODS: Data on insulin purchases reported by Israel's four Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) were retrieved from the National Program for Quality Indicators in Community Healthcare. RESULTS: During the prevaccination years (2002-2007), a steady increase in insulin purchases was reported in the young (<5 years). The period percent change (PC) of children <5 years old diagnosed with T1D inferred from purchased insulin prescriptions increased by 50.0%, and the annual percent change (APC) increased by 10.0% (p = 0.01). During the period of free, universal Rotavirus vaccination (2011-2018), the PC for T1D diagnoses among children <5 years of age decreased by 3.8% with an APC of -2.5% (p = 0.14). There was a significant difference (p = 0.002) between the increasing trend in insulin use before vaccination versus the decreasing trend after vaccination. CONCLUSION: Rotavirus vaccination correlated with attenuation of the increasing rate in the prevalence of T1D in <5-year-old children in Israel.

It's how you say it: Systematic A/B testing of digital messaging cut hospital no-show rates.

Failure to attend hospital appointments has a detrimental impact on care quality. Documented efforts to address this challenge have only modestly decreased no-show rates. Behavioral economics theory has suggested that more effective messages may lead to increased responsiveness. In complex, real-world settings, it has proven difficult to predict the optimal message composition. In this study, we aimed to systematically compare the effects of several pre-appointment message formats on no-show rates. We randomly assigned members from Clalit Health Services (CHS), the largest payer-provider healthcare organization in Israel, who had scheduled outpatient clinic appointments in 14 CHS hospitals, to one of nine groups. Each individual received a pre-appointment SMS text reminder five days before the appointment, which differed by group. No-show and advanced cancellation rates were compared between the eight alternative messages, with the previously used generic message serving as the control. There were 161,587 CHS members who received pre-appointment reminder messages who were included in this study. Five message frames significantly differed from the control group. Members who received a reminder designed to evoke emotional guilt had a no-show rates of 14.2%, compared with 21.1% in the control group (odds ratio [OR]: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67, 0.76), and an advanced cancellation rate of 26.3% compared with 17.2% in the control group (OR: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.21). Four additional reminder formats demonstrated significantly improved impact on no-show rates, compared to the control, though not as effective as the best performing message format. Carefully selecting the narrative of pre-appointment SMS reminders can lead to a marked decrease in no-show rates. The process of a/b testing, selecting, and adopting optimal messages is a practical example of implementing the learning healthcare system paradigm, which could prevent up to one-third of the 352,000 annually unattended appointments in Israel.

Associations of social environment, socioeconomic position and social mobility with immune response in young adults: the Jerusalem Perinatal Family Follow-Up Study.

OBJECTIVES: Immune response to cytomegalovirus (CMV) impacts adult chronic disease. This study investigates associations of childhood and adulthood social environment, socioeconomic position (SEP) and social mobility with CMV response in young adults. DESIGN: Historical prospective study design. SETTING: Subcohort of all 17 003 births to residents of Jerusalem between 1974 and 1976. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included 1319 young adults born in Jerusalem with extensive archival and follow-up data, including childhood and adulthood SEP-related factors and anti-CMV IgG titre levels and seroprevalence measured at age 32. MAIN EXPOSURE AND OUTCOME MEASURES: Principal component analysis was used to transform correlated social environment and SEP-related variables at two time points (childhood and adulthood) into two major scores reflecting household (eg, number of siblings/children, religiosity) and socioeconomic (eg, occupation, education) components. Based on these components, social mobility variables were created. Linear and Poisson regression models were used to investigate associations of components and mobility with anti-CMV IgG titre level and seroprevalence, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Lower levels of household and socioeconomic components in either childhood or adulthood were associated with higher anti-CMV IgG titre level and seropositivity at age 32. Compared with individuals with stable favourable components, anti-CMV IgG titre level and risk for seropositivity were higher in stable unfavourable household and socioeconomic components (household: ß=3.23, P<0.001; relative risk (RR)=1.21, P<0.001; socioeconomic: ß=2.20, P=0.001; RR=1.14, P=0.01), downward household mobility (ß=4.32, P<0.001; RR=1.26, P<0.001) and upward socioeconomic mobility (ß=1.37, P=0.04; RR=1.19, P<0.001). Among seropositive individuals, associations between household components and mobility with anti-CMV IgG titre level were maintained and associations between socioeconomic components and mobility with anti-CMV IgG titre level were attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that accumulating low SEP from childhood through adulthood and social mobility may compromise immune response in young adulthood.

Mortality, cancer incidence, and survival in parents after bereavement.

PURPOSE: The study objective was to investigate whether child loss is related to mortality, cancer incidence, and cancer survival in parents. METHODS: We used a population-based birth cohort (1964-1976) in Jerusalem and ascertained mortality (average follow-up of 39.1 years) and any cancer (average follow-up of 35.6 years) among parents who lost a child (2838 mothers and 2532 fathers) and among nonbereaved parents (38,212 mothers and 36,433 fathers). We also assessed mortality among parents with cancer. Time-dependent Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Overall mortality rates among bereaved parents were modestly increased when compared with nonbereaved parents (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.05-1.32 in mothers; HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01-1.20 in fathers). Hazard models indicated a significant relationship between bereavement and deaths from coronary heart disease in mothers (HR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.23-2.95) and circulatory causes in both parents (HR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.22-2.34 in mothers and HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.02-1.54 in fathers). Bereavement was not associated with parental risk of cancer disease and with survival from cancer. The association between bereavement and parental overall mortality was similar in the different parental sociodemographic characteristics. We observed a decrease in HRs for parental mortality associated with bereavement, with increasing time since the death of the child (HRs = 9-10, 0-3 years; HRs = 0.9-1.0, 9+ years; P(heterogeneity) ≤ 3 × 10(-32)). A similar decrease in HRs was observed for parental survival from cancer (HRs = 6.7-8.7, 0-3 years; HRs = 0.9-1.0, 9+ years). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that child loss was associated with slightly increased risk of all-cause and circulatory mortality in parents but not with incidence of cancer and cancer survival. The considerable increased parental mortality during a short period after child loss support the involvement of pathways related to psychological stress.

Parental smoking during pregnancy and offspring cardio-metabolic risk factors at ages 17 and 32.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of maternal and/or paternal smoking during pregnancy with offspring cardio-metabolic risk (CMR) factors at adolescence and early adulthood, taking into account socio-demographic, medical and lifestyle characteristics of parents and offspring, as well as offspring common genetic variation. METHODS: We used a population-based cohort of all 17 003 births in Jerusalem during 1974-76, with available archival data on parental and birth characteristics. Measurements at age 17 were assessed at military induction examinations for 11 530 offspring. 1440 offspring from the original 1974-1976 birth cohort were sampled using a stratified sampling approach, and were interviewed and examined at age 32. Parental smoking during pregnancy (i.e. maternal, paternal and any parent) was primarily defined dichotomously (any number of cigarettes smoked daily by mother or father during pregnancy vs. non-smokers). Additionally, smoking was assessed by quantity of cigarettes smoked daily. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations of parental smoking during pregnancy with various offspring CMR factors, after controlling for potential confounders and for genetic variation in candidate genes. RESULTS: Prevalence of exposure to parental smoking in-utero (i.e. smoking of any parent) was 53.2% and 48.4% among the 17 years old and 32 years old samples, respectively. At age 17, smoking of at least one parent during pregnancy was significantly associated with weight (B = 1.39), height (B = 0.59), BMI (B = 0.32) and pulse rate (B = -0.78) (p-values < 0.001). At age 32, parental smoking, adjusted for covariates, was associated with 2.22 kg higher mean offspring weight, 0.95 cm higher mean offspring height, 0.57 kg/m(2) higher BMI, and 1.46 cm higher waist-circumference (p-values ≤ 0.02). Similar results, reflecting a dose response, were observed when maternal and paternal smokings were assessed by number of cigarettes smoked daily. CONCLUSIONS: This prospective study demonstrates a potential long-term adverse effect of parental smoking during pregnancy on offspring health and calls for increasing efforts to promote smoking cessation of both parents before pregnancy.

Associations of maternal pre-pregnancy and gestational body size with offspring longitudinal change in BMI.

OBJECTIVES: Studies demonstrate associations between changes in obesity-related phenotypes and cardiovascular risk. Although maternal pre-pregnancy BMI (mppBMI) and gestational weight gain (GWG) may be associated with adult offspring adiposity, no study has examined associations with obesity changes. Associations of mppBMI and GWG with longitudinal change in offspring's BMI (ΔBMI) were examined, and whether associations are explained by offspring genetics was assessed. METHODS: A birth cohort of 1400 adults, with data at birth, age 17 and 32 years was used. After genotyping offspring, genetic scores, predictive of exposures and outcome were created, and linear regression models with and without scores were fit to examine the associations of mppBMI and GWG with ΔBMI. RESULTS: A one SD change in mppBMI and GWG was associated with a 0.83 and a 0.75 kg/m² increase in ΔBMI, respectively. The association between mppBMI and offspring ΔBMI was slightly attenuated (12%) with the addition of genetic scores. In the GWG model, a significant substantial 28.2% decrease in the coefficient was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study points to an association between maternal excess weight in pregnancy and offspring BMI change from adolescence to adulthood. Genetic factors may account, in part, for GWG/ΔBMI association. These findings broaden observations that maternal obesity-related phenotypes have long-term consequences for offspring health.