Nutritional, environmental and economic impacts of ultra-processed food consumption in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the full life cycle impacts of ultra-processed foods (UPF) for key environmental, economic and nutritional indicators to identify trade-offs between UPF contribution to broad-scope sustainability. DESIGN: Using 24-h dietary recalls along with an input-output database for the Australian economy, dietary environmental and economic impacts were quantified in this national representative cross-sectional analysis. Food items were classified into non-UPF and UPF using the NOVA system, and dietary energy contribution from non-UPF and UPF fractions in diets was estimated. Thereafter, associations between nutritional, environmental and economic impacts of non-UPF and UPF fractions of diets were examined using a multi-dimensional nutritional geometry representation. SETTING: National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2011-2012 of Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Respondents (n 5344) aged > 18 years with 1 d of 24-h dietary recall data excluding respondents with missing values and outlier data points and under reporters. RESULTS: Australian diets rich in UPF were associated with reduced nutritional quality, high greenhouse gas emissions, energy use, and increased employment and income associated with the food supply chains. The environmental and economic impacts associated with the UPF portion of diets become more distinct when the diets are standardised to average protein recommendation. CONCLUSION: Increased consumption of UPF has socio-economic benefits, but this comes with adverse effects on the environment and public health. Consideration of such trade-offs is important in identifying policy and other mechanisms regarding UPF for establishing healthy and sustainable food systems.

Global Embodied Energy Flow and Stock Analysis with Endogeneous Fixed Capital.

Fixed capital stock functions as an embodied energy storage system that connects economic activities which do not happen simultaneously. This paper constructs a dynamic energy input-output model to analyze embodied energy flows and stocks along both temporal and spatial dimensions from 2000 to 2014. The results show that 2043 exajoule of embodied energy was stored in the global fixed capital stock in 2014, which was about three times the world's direct energy use. Compared with those in developed countries, the gaps between the dynamic energy footprints and the traditional ones were larger in fast-developing countries. Net embodied energy usually flowed from high-intensity economies to lower-intensity economies, and around 10% of the energy embodied in trade came from depreciation. The dynamic embodied energy indicators provide information for improving energy efficiency and mitigating corresponding problems from the perspective of consumption.

Implications for farmers of measures to reduce sugars consumption.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of reduced consumption of free sugars in line with World Health Organization recommendations, on sugar farmers globally. METHODS: Using multiregion input-output analysis, we estimated the proportional impact on production volumes of a 1% reduction in free sugars consumption by the public. We extracted data on sugar production from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations database for the top 15 sugar-cane- and beet-producing countries globally, and created a custom multiregion input-output database to assess the proportions of production going to human consumption, drawing on household expenditure surveys and national input-output databases (data valid for years 2000-2015). We also considered the impact on production volumes in relation to countries' gross domestic product. FINDINGS: A high proportion of current sugar production from these countries goes to human consumption, and would thus be impacted by reduced consumption of sugars. The largest impacts on cane sugar production, and thus on farmers, would likely occur in Brazil, China, India and Thailand and on beet production in Belarus, Germany, Russian Federation and United States of America. CONCLUSION: A global opportunity exists for public health leadership to bring together the health, economic, environmental and agriculture sectors to collaborate and build capacity for promotion of alternative livelihoods for sugar farmers. Lessons regarding strategy and the importance of political economy factors can be learnt from tobacco control measures. Further research to quantify the impact of reductions in sugars consumption would provide useful insights for designing policies to complement and strengthen efforts to improve diets and health.

Forest Tax Payment Responsibility from the Forest Service Footprint Perspective.

It has been observed that market failure has hampered the development of sustainable forest ecosystem services such as CO2 absorption and fixation, water retention, and biodiversity. One of the reasons for this is that the link between forest land use and the beneficiaries of that use has not been widely recognized or clearly established. To address this problem, we conducted a footprint analysis to clarify the linkage between Japanese taxpayers as the beneficiaries of forest land use and the use of tax revenue and monetary donations for forest management. This study focuses on how the current forest tax collected from Japanese taxpayers (63 billion Japanese yen) could be allocated more fairly. The question of whether the collected taxes are sufficient is left for another time. At the core of our analysis, we examined the carbon footprint and established a linkage between the origins of CO2 emissions in Japan and their destinations by using a subnational multiregional input-output database and building a base table focused on various land use types and subnational regions at the municipality level. By clarifying these linkages and enhancing their transparency, we provide a basis for developing alternative financing schemes involving both taxation and taxpayer donations in support of forest management activities and protection of biodiverse habitats.

International spillover effects in the EU's textile supply chains: A global SDG assessment.

Successful implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires world countries to account for actions that inadvertently generate negative impacts on other countries. These actions/effects are called 'spillovers', and can hinder a country's SDG progress. In this work, we analyse negative social spillover effects, focussing specifically on the occupational health and safety aspects of workers in textile supply chains. We select two indicators: fatal accidents and non-fatal accidents that take place in global supply chains for satisfying consumption of textile products (such as clothing, leather products) by European Union (EU) countries. Specifically, we scan global supply chains originating in countries outside of EU for meeting the demands of its citizens. To this end, we employ a well-established technique of multi-regional input-output analysis, featuring information on 15,000 sectors for 189 countries, to scan international supply chain routes that are linked to consumption of textile products by EU countries. Our findings suggest that Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Belgium and Portugal are collectively responsible for about 80% of both fatal- and non-fatal accidents that are attributed to the EU's consumption-based footprint. These findings not only call for a need for coherent SDG policies that consider spillover effects, but also the need for these effects to be included in EU's strategic instruments and policy-related tools.

Setting Better-Informed Climate Targets for New Zealand: The Influence of Value and Modeling Choices.

Quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and setting GHG emissions budgets for anthropogenic systems are influenced by several value and modeling choices. This study, for the first time, quantified the influence of choice of GHG accounting approach, GHG metric, time horizon, climate threshold, global emissions budget calculation method, and effort-sharing approach, taking New Zealand (NZ) as a case study. First, NZ's production- and consumption-based emissions were quantified using multiregional input-output analysis and applying different GHG metrics (global warming and temperature potentials) and time horizons (20 and 100 years). Second, global emissions budgets for 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 1 W m-2 climate thresholds were estimated. Budget shares were then assigned to NZ using two effort-sharing approaches (grandfathering and economic value), and emissions were benchmarked against the assigned shares. Finally, the analysis was undertaken at the NZ sector level. The results showed that, for each GHG accounting approach, NZ's total emissions exceeded their budget shares, irrespective of the choices; the largest source of uncertainty was the choice of global emissions budget calculation method, followed by GHG metric, climate threshold, effort-sharing approach, and reference year for the grandfathering approach. The sector-level analysis showed that, while most sectors exceeded their budget shares, some performed within them. The ranking of uncertainty sources was quite different at the sector level, with the choice of effort-sharing approach providing the largest source of uncertainty. Overall, the study indicates the importance of handling value and modeling choices in a transparent way when quantifying GHG emissions and setting emissions budgets for anthropogenic systems.

The material footprint of nations.

Metrics on resource productivity currently used by governments suggest that some developed countries have increased the use of natural resources at a slower rate than economic growth (relative decoupling) or have even managed to use fewer resources over time (absolute decoupling). Using the material footprint (MF), a consumption-based indicator of resource use, we find the contrary: Achievements in decoupling in advanced economies are smaller than reported or even nonexistent. We present a time series analysis of the MF of 186 countries and identify material flows associated with global production and consumption networks in unprecedented specificity. By calculating raw material equivalents of international trade, we demonstrate that countries' use of nondomestic resources is, on average, about threefold larger than the physical quantity of traded goods. As wealth grows, countries tend to reduce their domestic portion of materials extraction through international trade, whereas the overall mass of material consumption generally increases. With every 10% increase in gross domestic product, the average national MF increases by 6%. Our findings call into question the sole use of current resource productivity indicators in policy making and suggest the necessity of an additional focus on consumption-based accounting for natural resource use.

Mercury Flows in China and Global Drivers.

Mercury (Hg) pollution control has become an urgent need at global and national scales. This study, for the first time, comprehensively examines Hg flows in Mainland China and uncovers domestic and external causal drivers of China's Hg emissions/releases. Results show that China's Hg input reaches 2643 t in 2010. China discharges 1368 t of Hg to the environment (to air, 633 t; water, 84 t; and land, 651 t). Embedded Hg transfers across production sectors via waste/byproduct flows reduce Hg releases to land, but lead to secondary Hg emissions to air. Such revelations of embedded Hg transfers adjusts China's comprehensive Hg control that would otherwise only tackle primary emitters. Domestic consumption causes 67% of China's Hg emissions/releases, and external consumption induces the remaining 33%. Besides traditional production-side Hg control measures, demand-side measures and international joint efforts are required to effectively combat Hg pollution. Uncovering embedded and embodied Hg flows within the global economy can assist a paradigm shift necessary to make real progress in global Hg control and the implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Trends in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 1990 to 2010.

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are known to alter hydrological cycles, disrupt marine ecosystems and species lifecycles, and cause global habitat loss. In this study, we use a comprehensive global input-output database to assess the driving forces underlying the change in global CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2010. We decompose the change in emissions for the 20 year period into six mutually exclusive causal determinants. Our assessment of trends in fuel-use reveals that a 10.8 Peta-gram (Pg) rise in emissions from 1990 to 2010 constitutes emissions from the consumption of coal (49%), petroleum (25%), natural gas (17%), and biomass (9%). We demonstrate that affluence (per-capita consumption) and population growth are outpacing any improvements in carbon efficiency in driving up emissions worldwide. Our results suggest that supply chain measures to improve technological efficiency are not sufficient to reduce emissions. To achieve significant emission savings, policy makers need to address the issue of affluence. We argue that policies to address unsustainable lifestyles and consumer behavior are largely unheard of, and governments may need to actively intervene in nonsustainable lifestyles to achieve emission reductions. The results presented in this paper are vital for informing future policy decisions for mitigating climate change.

Application of multi-region input-output analysis to examine biosecurity risks associated with the global shipping network.

The vast majority of globally traded cargo is transported via maritime shipping. Whilst in port for loading and unloading, these ships can pick up local marine organisms with internal ballast water or as external biofouling assemblages and subsequently move these to destination far beyond their natural ranges. Over the past decades, this mechanism has led to the establishment of hundreds of non-indigenous species (NIS) around global coastlines. Marine NIS cause significant environmental, economic, cultural and human health impacts. Taking effective steps to preventing their dispersal and establishment is an enduring challenge for governments and conservation agencies around the world. Here we use international commodity trade data and a Nobel-Prize-winning economic analysis technique to develop a novel approach for assessing global marine NIS transfer risks. We show that by tracing the origins and destinations of seaborne trade connections, and the nature of the traded commodities, we can predict the strength of shipping vectors and associated marine biosecurity risks. We demonstrate the utility of our approach via a case-study, where we trace the spread of a hypothetical marine NIS from Japan and show the congruence of our model results with documented invasion histories from that region. Our study demonstrates that biosecurity risk can be assessed using established economic modelling frameworks on the basis of monetary transaction data alone, and without the need for detailed itineraries of the many thousand vessels making up the global commercial fleet. Novel, cost-effective tools are needed to mitigate biosecurity risks associated with maritime trade, and to meet conservation goals while enabling economic prosperity. The modelling framework presented here can be expanded to incorporate future risk factors, life-history traits of particular NIS of concern, and even adapted to simulate the dispersal of terrestrial pests or disease agents.

Nutrient-sensitive approach for sustainability assessment of Australian macronutrient dietary recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines that form the basis for food and nutrition policies in most countries are focused mainly on the social dimensions of health. Efforts are needed to incorporate environmental and economic sustainability. As the dietary guidelines are formulated based on nutrition principles, understanding the sustainability of dietary guidelines in relation to nutrients could support the better incorporation of environmental and economic sustainability aspects into dietary guidelines. OBJECTIVES: This study examines and demonstrates the potential of integrating an input-output analysis with nutritional geometry to assess the sustainability of the Australian macronutrient dietary guidelines (AMDR) relating to macronutrients. METHODS: We used daily dietary intake data of 5345 Australian adults from the most recent Australian Nutrient and Physical Activity Survey 2011-2012 and an input-output database for the Australian economy to quantify the environmental and economic impacts associated with dietary intake. Then, we examined the associations between environmental and economic impacts and dietary macronutrient composition using a multidimensional nutritional geometry representation. Thereafter, we assessed the sustainability of the AMDR regarding its alignment with key environmental and economic outcomes. RESULTS: We found that diets adhering to the AMDR were associated with moderately high greenhouse gas emissions, water use, cost of dietary energy, and the contribution to wages and salaries of Australians. However, only about 20.42% of respondents adhered to the AMDR. Furthermore, high-plant protein diets adhering to the lower limit of recommended protein intake in the AMDR were associated with low environmental impacts and high incomes. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that encouraging consumers to adhere to the lower limit of the recommended intake of proteins and meeting the protein requirement through protein-dense plant sources could improve dietary environmental and economic sustainability in Australia. Our findings provide a means of understanding the sustainability of dietary recommendations concerning macronutrients for any country where input-output databases are available.

Mapping the structure of the world economy.

We have developed a new series of environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) tables with applications in carbon, water, and ecological footprinting, and Life-Cycle Assessment, as well as trend and key driver analyses. Such applications have recently been at the forefront of global policy debates, such as about assigning responsibility for emissions embodied in internationally traded products. The new time series was constructed using advanced parallelized supercomputing resources, and significantly advances the previous state of art because of four innovations. First, it is available as a continuous 20-year time series of MRIO tables. Second, it distinguishes 187 individual countries comprising more than 15,000 industry sectors, and hence offers unsurpassed detail. Third, it provides information just 1-3 years delayed therefore significantly improving timeliness. Fourth, it presents MRIO elements with accompanying standard deviations in order to allow users to understand the reliability of data. These advances will lead to material improvements in the capability of applications that rely on input-output tables. The timeliness of information means that analyses are more relevant to current policy questions. The continuity of the time series enables the robust identification of key trends and drivers of global environmental change. The high country and sector detail drastically improves the resolution of Life-Cycle Assessments. Finally, the availability of information on uncertainty allows policy-makers to quantitatively judge the level of confidence that can be placed in the results of analyses.

Frameworks for comparing emissions associated with production, consumption, and international trade.

While the problem of climate change is being perceived as increasingly urgent, decision-makers struggle to agree on the distribution of responsibility across countries. In particular, representatives from countries hosting emissions-intensive exporting industries have argued that the importers of emissions-intensive goods should bear the responsibility, and ensuing penalties. Indeed, international trade and carbon leakage appear to play an increasingly important role in the carbon emissions debate. However, definitions of quantities describing the embodiment of carbon emissions in internationally traded products, and their measurement, have to be sufficiently robust before being able to underpin global policy. In this paper we critically examine a number of emissions accounting concepts, examine whether the ensuing carbon balances are compatible with monetary trade balances, discuss their different interpretations, and highlight implications for policy. In particular, we compare the emissions embodied in bilateral trade (EEBT) method which considers total trade flows with domestic emission intensities, with the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) method which considers trade only into final consumption with global emission intensities. If consumption-based emissions of different countries were to be compared, we would suggest an MRIO approach because of the global emissions coverage inherent in this method. If trade-adjusted emission inventories were to be compared, we would suggest an EEBT approach due to the consistency with a monetary trade balance.

Nutrient-sensitive approach for sustainability assessment of different dietary patterns in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the relation between sustainability and nutrients is important in devising healthy and sustainable diets. However, there are no prevailing methodologies to assess sustainability at the nutrient level. OBJECTIVES: The aim was to examine and demonstrate the potential of integrating input-output analysis with nutritional geometry to link environmental, economic, and health associations of dietary scenarios in Australia with macronutrients. METHODS: One-day dietary recalls of 9341 adult respondents (age ≥18 y) of the latest available cross-sectional National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey-2011/12 of Australia were integrated with the input-output data obtained from the Australian Industrial Ecology Virtual Laboratory to calculate the environmental and economic impacts of dietary intakes in Australia. Australian adults' dietary intakes were classified into 3 dietary scenarios: "vegan," "pescatarian," and "omnivorous." Then, the relations between nutritional, economic, and environmental characteristics of the 3 dietary scenarios were demonstrated with the diets' macronutrient composition in a multidimensional nutritional geometry representation to link the sustainability indicators with macronutrients. RESULTS: Nutrient density and economic and environmental indicators increased as the percentage of energy from proteins increased and decreased as the percentage of energy from fats increased for the 3 dietary scenarios, except for the nutrient density and water use of the "vegan" dietary scenario. Energy density increased as the percentage of energy from fats increased and decreased as the percentage of energy from proteins increased for "pescatarian" and "omnivorous" dietary scenarios. In the "vegan" dietary scenario, nutrient density and water use increased as the percentage of energy from proteins increased; however, these decreased as the percentage of energy from carbohydrates increased, instead of fats. CONCLUSIONS: The study presents a new approach to analyzing the relations between sustainability indicators, foods, and macronutrients and establishes that proteins, irrespective of the source of protein, are driving dietary environmental and economic impacts.

Global food-miles account for nearly 20% of total food-systems emissions.

Food trade plays a key role in achieving global food security. With a growing consumer demand for diverse food products, transportation has emerged as a key link in food supply chains. We estimate the carbon footprint of food-miles by using a global multi-region accounting framework. We calculate food-miles based on the countries and sectors of origin and the destination countries, and distinguish the relevant international and domestic transport distances and commodity masses. When the entire upstream food supply chain is considered, global food-miles correspond to about 3.0 GtCO2e (3.5-7.5 times higher than previously estimated), indicating that transport accounts for about 19% of total food-system emissions (stemming from transport, production and land-use change). Global freight transport associated with vegetable and fruit consumption contributes 36% of food-miles emissions-almost twice the amount of greenhouse gases released during their production. To mitigate the environmental impact of food, a shift towards plant-based foods must be coupled with more locally produced items, mainly in affluent countries.

Carbon Emissions of the Tourism Telecoupling System: Theoretical Framework, Model Specification and Synthesis Effects.

The flows of people and material attributed to international tourism exert a major impact on the global environment. Tourism carbon emissions is the main indicator in this context. However, previous studies focused on estimating the emissions of destinations, ignoring the embodied emissions in tourists' origins and other areas. This study provides a comprehensive framework of a tourism telecoupling system. Taking China's international tourism as an example, we estimate the carbon emissions of its tourism telecoupling system based on the Tourism Satellite Account and input-output model. We find that (1) the proposal of a tourism telecoupling system provides a new perspective for analyzing the carbon emissions of a tourism system. The sending system (origins) and indirect spillover system (resource suppliers) have been ignored in previous studies. (2) In the telecoupling system of China's international tourism, the emission reduction effect of the sending system is significant. (3) The direct spillover system (transit) and indirect spillover system's spatial transfer effects of environment responsibility are remarkable. (4) There is a large carbon trade implied in international tourism. This study makes us pay attention to the carbon emissions of tourists' origins and the implied carbon trading in tourism flows.

The potential for indoor fans to change air conditioning use while maintaining human thermal comfort during hot weather: an analysis of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

BACKGROUND: Increasing air conditioner use for cooling indoor spaces has the potential to be a primary driver of global greenhouse gas emissions. Moving indoor air with residential fans can raise the temperature threshold at which air conditioning needs to be turned on to maintain the thermal comfort of building occupants. We investigate whether fans can be used to reduce air conditioner use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. METHODS: We developed an integrated framework, featuring a dynamic adaptive thermal comfort model with a geographical information system-based spatially gridded map of Australia, further complemented with census data. We assessed the change in energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions for five scenarios of air conditioner and fan use: an air conditioner-only scenario (no fans); and four fan-first scenarios with fans operating at speeds of 0·1 m/s, 0·3 m/s, 0·8 m/s, and 1·2 m/s, with air conditioning used only once the upper temperature threshold for thermal discomfort is exceeded. For each day of the selected case study year, we estimated the upper temperature limit for thermal comfort and the number of hours in which air conditioning would be switched on. FINDINGS: The thermal comfort threshold was increased by the use of fans compared with air conditioner use alone. We found that widespread indoor fan use had the potential to reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions attributable to air conditioner use, without compromising thermal comfort. Taking an annual perspective, the use of fans with air speeds of 1·2 m/s compared with air conditioner use alone resulted in a 76% reduction in energy use (from 5592 GWh to 1344 GWh) and associated greenhouse gas emissions (5091 kilotonnes to 1208 kilotonnes). INTERPRETATION: A common strategy to cope with hot weather is the use of air conditioners, which feed a cycle of high electricity consumption, often delivered by fossil fuel power stations that in turn contribute to further increases in emissions. Moving air with electric fans could serve as a sustainable alternative, reducing air conditioner use and associated greenhouse gas emissions without sacrificing thermal comfort. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, and The University of Sydney.

Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on food supply chains cascade across sectors and regions in Australia.

Disasters resulting from climate change and extreme weather events adversely impact crop and livestock production. While the direct impacts of these events on productivity are generally well known, the indirect supply-chain repercussions (spillovers) are still unclear. Here, applying an integrated modelling framework that considers economic and physical factors, we estimate spillovers in terms of social impacts (for example, loss of job and income) and health impacts (for example, nutrient availability and diet quality) resulting from disruptions in food supply chains, which cascade across regions and sectors. Our results demonstrate that post-disaster impacts are wide-ranging and diverse owing to the interconnected nature of supply chains. We find that fruit, vegetable and livestock sectors are the most affected, with effects flowing on to other non-food production sectors such as transport services. The ability to cope with disasters is determined by socio-demographic characteristics, with communities in rural areas being most affected.