Integrated community models: A framework combining multispecies data sources to estimate the status, trends and dynamics of biodiversity.

Data deficiencies among rare or cryptic species preclude assessment of community-level processes using many existing approaches, limiting our understanding of the trends and stressors for large numbers of species. Yet evaluating the dynamics of whole communities, not just common or charismatic species, is critical to understanding and the responses of biodiversity to ongoing environmental pressures. A recent surge in both public science and government-funded data collection efforts has led to a wealth of biodiversity data. However, these data collection programmes use a wide range of sampling protocols (from unstructured, opportunistic observations of wildlife to well-structured, design-based programmes) and record information at a variety of spatiotemporal scales. As a result, available biodiversity data vary substantially in quantity and information content, which must be carefully reconciled for meaningful ecological analysis. Hierarchical modelling, including single-species integrated models and hierarchical community models, has improved our ability to assess and predict biodiversity trends and processes. Here, we highlight the emerging 'integrated community modelling' framework that combines both data integration and community modelling to improve inferences on species- and community-level dynamics. We illustrate the framework with a series of worked examples. Our three case studies demonstrate how integrated community models can be used to extend the geographic scope when evaluating species distributions and community-level richness patterns; discern population and community trends over time; and estimate demographic rates and population growth for communities of sympatric species. We implemented these worked examples using multiple software methods through the R platform via packages with formula-based interfaces and through development of custom code in JAGS, NIMBLE and Stan. Integrated community models provide an exciting approach to model biological and observational processes for multiple species using multiple data types and sources simultaneously, thus accounting for uncertainty and sampling error within a unified framework. By leveraging the combined benefits of both data integration and community modelling, integrated community models can produce valuable information about both common and rare species as well as community-level dynamics, allowing for holistic evaluation of the effects of global change on biodiversity.

A century of statistical Ecology.

As data and computing power have surged in recent decades, statistical modeling has become an important tool for understanding ecological patterns and processes. Statistical modeling in ecology faces two major challenges. First, ecological data may not conform to traditional methods, and second, professional ecologists often do not receive extensive statistical training. In response to these challenges, the journal Ecology has published many innovative statistical ecology papers that introduced novel modeling methods and provided accessible guides to statistical best practices. In this paper, we reflect on Ecology's history and its role in the emergence of the subdiscipline of statistical ecology, which we define as the study of ecological systems using mathematical equations, probability, and empirical data. We showcase 36 influential statistical ecology papers that have been published in Ecology over the last century and, in so doing, comment on the evolution of the field. As data and computing power continue to increase, we anticipate continued growth in statistical ecology to tackle complex analyses and an expanding role for Ecology to publish innovative and influential papers, advancing the discipline and guiding practicing ecologists.

Peer review perpetuates barriers for historically excluded groups.

Peer review is central to the scientific process and scientists' career advancement, but bias at various stages of the review process disadvantages some authors. Here we use peer review data from 312,740 biological sciences manuscripts across 31 studies to (1) examine evidence for differential peer review outcomes based on author demographics, (2) evaluate the efficacy of solutions to reduce bias and (3) describe the current landscape of peer review policies for 541 ecology and evolution journals. We found notably worse review outcomes (for example, lower overall acceptance rates) for authors whose institutional affiliations were in Asia, for authors whose country's primary language is not English and in countries with relatively low Human Development Indices. We found few data evaluating efficacy of interventions outside of reducing gender bias through double-blind review or diversifying reviewer/editorial boards. Despite evidence for review outcome gaps based on author demographics, few journals currently implement policies intended to mitigate bias (for example, 15.9% of journals practised double-blind review and 2.03% had reviewer guidelines that mentioned social justice issues). The lack of demographic equity signals an urgent need to better understand and implement evidence-based bias mitigation strategies.

Experimental approach and initial forest response to a simulated ice storm experiment in a northern hardwood forest.

Ice storms are a type of extreme winter weather event common to north temperate and boreal forests worldwide. Recent climate modelling studies suggest that these storms may become more frequent and severe under a changing climate. Compared to other types of storm events, relatively little is known about the direct and indirect impacts of these storms on forests, as naturally occurring ice storms are inherently difficult to study. Here we describe a novel experimental approach used to create a suite of ice storms in a mature hardwood forest in New Hampshire, USA. The experiment included five ice storm intensities (0, 6.4, 12.7 and 19.1 mm radial ice accretion) applied in a single year, and one ice storm intensity (12.7 mm) applied in two consecutive years. Results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach for creating experimental ice storms, quantify the increase in fine and coarse woody debris mass and nutrients transferred from the forest canopy to the soil under the different icing conditions, and show an increase in the damage to the forest canopy with increasing icing that evolves over time. In this forest, little damage occurred below 6.4 mm radial ice accretion, moderate damage occurred with up to 12.7 mm of accretion, and significant branch breakage and canopy damage occurred with 19.1 mm of ice. The icing in consecutive years demonstrated an interactive effect of ice storm frequency and severity such that some branches damaged in the first year of icing appeared to remain in the canopy and then fall to the ground in the second year of icing. These results have implications for National Weather Service ice storm warning levels, as they provide a quantitative assessment of ice-load related inputs of forest debris that will be useful to municipalities creating response plans for current and future ice storms.

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems.

Ice storms can have profound and lasting effects on the structure and function of forest ecosystems in regions that experience freezing conditions. Current models suggest that the frequency and intensity of ice storms could increase over the coming decades in response to changes in climate, heightening interest in understanding their impacts. Because of the stochastic nature of ice storms and difficulties in predicting when and where they will occur, most past investigations of the ecological effects of ice storms have been based on case studies following major storms. Since intense ice storms are exceedingly rare events it is impractical to study them by waiting for their natural occurrence. Here we present a novel alternative experimental approach, involving the simulation of glaze ice events on forest plots under field conditions. With this method, water is pumped from a stream or lake and sprayed above the forest canopy when air temperatures are below freezing. The water rains down and freezes upon contact with cold surfaces. As the ice accumulates on trees, the boles and branches bend and break; damage that can be quantified through comparisons with untreated reference stands. The experimental approach described is advantageous because it enables control over the timing and amount of ice applied. Creating ice storms of different frequency and intensity makes it possible to identify critical ecological thresholds necessary for predicting and preparing for ice storm impacts.

Conservation of Neotropical migratory birds in tropical hardwood and oil palm plantations.

Tropical forests in the Americas are undergoing rapid conversion to commercial agriculture, and many migratory bird species that use these forests have experienced corresponding populations declines. Conservation research for migratory birds in the tropics has focused overwhelmingly on shade coffee plantations and adjacent forest, but both cover types are now in decline, creating an urgent need to evaluate conservation opportunities in other agricultural systems. Here we compare how a community of 42 Neotropical migratory bird species and a subset of five conservation-priority species differ in usage and habitat associations among a secondary forest baseline and four expanding commercial plantation systems in Guatemala: African oil palm, teak, rubber, and mixed-native hardwoods. We found that mixed-native hardwood plantations supported the highest richness and diversity of all migrants and that the three hardwood plantation types generally outperformed oil palm in richness and diversity metrics. Despite this, oil palm supported high abundance of several common and widespread species also experiencing range-wide population declines and may therefore play an important role in conserving common species. Mature secondary forest hosted low abundance and diversity of the full migratory community, but high abundance and richness of conservation priority migrants along with native hardwood and teak plantations. Likewise, the percentage of forest cover on the landscape was positively associated with priority migrant abundance and richness but negatively associated with the abundance of migrants in general, highlighting how individual species within the broad group of Neotropical migratory landbirds respond differently to anthropogenic changes in land use. Across all cover types, the retention of tall overstory trees increased the abundance, richness, and diversity of all migrants, which indicates that vertical structural diversity and remnant trees are important habitat features for birds in agricultural landscapes. Our findings show that conservation opportunities exist in hardwood and oil palm plantations, though the species likely to benefit from conservation action will vary among plantation types. For the subset of conservation priority migrants, our results suggest that conservation efforts should combine strategies that retain and restore secondary forest, promote the adoption of native hardwood and teak plantations, and promote the retention of tall, remnant trees in agricultural landscapes.