A follow-up study shows that recovered patients with re-positive PCR test in Wuhan may not be infectious.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed that recovered coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients can have a subsequent positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after they are discharged from the hospital. Understanding the epidemiological characteristics of recovered COVID-19 patients who have a re-positive test is vital for preventing a second wave of COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed the epidemiological and clinical features of 20,280 COVID-19 patients from multiple centers in Wuhan who had a positive PCR test between December 31, 2019, and August 4, 2020. The RT-PCR test results for 4079 individuals who had close contact with the re-positive cases were also obtained. RESULTS: In total, 2466 (12.16%) of the 20,280 patients had a re-positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test after they were discharged from the hospital, and 4079 individuals had close contact with members of this patient group. All of these 4079 individuals had a negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective study in Wuhan analyzed the basic characteristics of recovered COVID-19 patients with re-positive PCR test and found that these cases may not be infectious.

Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities.

Urbanization and rural-urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963-2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and hantavirus epidemiology, potentially explaining why urbanizing cities with high economic growth exhibit extended epidemics. Our results also highlight contrasting effects of urbanization on zoonotic disease outbreaks during periods of economic development in China.

Landscape and rodent community composition are associated with risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in two cities in China, 2006-2013.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by hantaviruses. Landscape can influence the risk of hantavirus infection for humans, mainly through its effect on rodent community composition and distribution. It is important to understand how landscapes influence population dynamics for different rodent species and the subsequent effect on HFRS risk. METHODS: To determine how rodent community composition influenced human hantavirus infection, we monitored rodent communities in the prefecture-level cities of Loudi and Shaoyang, China, from 2006 to 2013. Land use data were extracted from satellite images and rodent community diversity was analyzed in 45 trapping sites, in different environments. Potential contact matrices, determining how rodent community composition influence HFRS infection among different land use types, were estimated based on rodent community composition and environment type for geo-located HFRS cases. RESULTS: Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus were the predominant species in Loudi and Shaoyang, respectively. The major risk of HFRS infection was concentrated in areas with cultivated land and was associated with A. agrarius, R. norvegicus, and Rattus flavipectus. In urban areas in Shaoyang, Mus musculus was related to risk of hantavirus infection. CONCLUSIONS: Landscape features and rodent community dynamics may affect the risk of human hantavirus infection. Results of this study may be useful for the development of HFRS prevention initiatives that are customized for regions with different geographical environments.

Prevalence and drug resistance of Escherichia coli among patients with orthopaedic surgical site infections in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

To summarize current prevalence and drug resistance rate of Escherichia coli (E. coli) among orthopaedic surgical site infections (SSIs) in China from English and Chinese language sources. Online databases were searched to collect related researches. A meta-analysis was performed to analyse prevalence and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of E. coli among patients with orthopedic surgical site infections. Meta-regression analysis was used to investigate the difference in the prevalence and antimicrobial resistance of E. coli among different subgroups. A total of 52 studies were enrolled into our meta-analysis, with a total of 31,285 strains isolated. The overall E. coli prevalence was 13.4 % (95 % CI 11.6-15.5). Study design (R2 = 8.98) and sample size (R2 = 10.95) might be potential sources of heterogeneity and there were no significant differences in risk of bias (R2 = 0.28), study time (R2 < 0.01), region (R2 = 2.46) and hospital level (R2 = 1.42). E. coli resistance were reported in 43 of the 52 papers. Antimicrobial resistance of E. coli to Ampicillin [87.9 % (95 % CI 83.7-91.1)] before 2015 was higher than that after 2015 [80.3 % (95 % CI 75.0-84.7)] (R2 = 30.93, P = 0.033). While, resistance rate to Cefepime and Amikacin was significantly higher before 2015 (R2 = 17.25 and 6.54, P = 0.043 and 0.048), i.e., 46.4 % (36.3-56.9), 19.9 % (13.8-27.7) and 29.1 % (19.4-41.2), 8.6 % (4.4-16.2) in 2015 and after. It is necessary to carry out long-term monitoring to understand the actual prevalence and antimicrobial resistance of E. coli to develop appropriate health care mechanisms.

Habitual physical activity improves outcomes among patients with myocardial infarction.

Purpose: This study evaluates the association between habitual physical activity (HPA) and the outcomes of patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Methods: Patients newly diagnosed with MI were divided into two groups based on whether they engaged in HPA, defined as an aerobic activity with a duration of no less than 150 min/week, before the index admission. The primary outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), cardiovascular (CV) mortality, and cardiac readmission rate 1 year following the index date of admission. A binary logistic regression model was applied to analyze whether HPA was independently associated with 1-year MACEs, 1-year CV mortality, and 1-year cardiac readmission rate. Results: Among the 1,266 patients (mean age 63.4 years, 72% male), 571 (45%) engaged in HPA, and 695 (55%) did not engage in HPA before MI. Patients who participated in HPA were independently associated with a lower Killip class upon admission (OR = 0.48: 95% CI, 0.32-0.71, p < 0.001) and a lower prevalence of 1-year MACEs (OR = 0.74: 95% CI, 0.56-0.98, p = 0.038) and 1-year CV mortality (OR = 0.50: 95% CI, 0.28-0.88, p = 0.017) than those who did not participate in HPA. HPA was not associated with cardiac-related readmission (OR = 0.87: 95% CI, 0.64-1.17, p = 0.35). Conclusions: HPA before MI was independently associated with a lower Killip class upon admission, 1-year MACEs, and 1-year CV mortality rate.

Effect of Influenza Vaccination on Rate of Influenza Virus Infection in Chinese Military Personnel, 2015-2016: A Cluster Randomized Trial.

Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The protective effect of a trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) is undetermined in military personnel. We conducted an open-label, cluster randomized trial on active-duty servicemen of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang, who were randomly assigned to receive either a single dose of TIV or no treatment, according to cluster randomized sampling. The subjects were then followed for a maximum of six months to assess the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza. A total of 5445 subjects in 114 clusters received one dose of TIV before the 2015/2016 influenza season. Laboratory-confirmed influenza was identified in 18 in the vaccine group compared with 87 in the control group (6031 subjects in 114 clusters), resulting in a vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 76.4% (95%CI: 60.7 to 85.8) against laboratory-confirmed influenza. Influenza-like illness was diagnosed in 132 in the vaccine group compared with 420 in the control group, resulting in a VE of 64.1% (95%CI: 56.2 to 70.6). The estimated VE against influenza B viruses was 80.5% (95%CI: 65.6 to 88.9) and 8.6% (95%CI: -241 to 75.5) against influenza A viruses. In conclusion, the trivalent influenza vaccine is moderately effective, highly immunogenic, and generally safe to use in healthy male military servicemen.

Distribution and risk factors of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China.

Data from all reported cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of cases were characterized through spatial analysis. The impact of travel-related risk factors on invasion of the disease was analyzed using survival analysis, and climatic factors related to local transmission were identified using multilevel Poisson regression, both at the county level. The results showed that the epidemic spanned a large geographic area, with the most affected areas being in western China. Significant differences in incidence were found among age groups, with incidences peaking in school-age children. Overall, the epidemic spread from southeast to northwest. Proximity to airports and being intersected by national highways or freeways but not railways were variables associated with the presence of the disease in a county. Lower temperature and lower relative humidity were the climatic factors facilitating local transmission after correction for the effects of school summer vacation and public holidays, as well as population density and the density of medical facilities. These findings indicate that interventions focused on domestic travel, population density, and climatic factors could play a role in mitigating the public health impact of future influenza pandemics.

Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change.

Background: Rigorous assessment of the effect of malaria control strategies on local malaria dynamics is a complex but vital step in informing future strategies to eliminate malaria. However, the interactions between climate forcing, mass drug administration, mosquito control and their effects on the incidence of malaria remain unclear. Methods: Here, we analyze the effects of interventions on the transmission dynamics of malaria (Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum) on Hainan Island, China, controlling for environmental factors. Mathematical models were fitted to epidemiological data, including confirmed cases and population-wide blood examinations, collected between 1995 and 2010, a period when malaria control interventions were rolled out with positive outcomes. Results: Prior to the massive scale-up of interventions, malaria incidence shows both interannual variability and seasonality, as well as a strong correlation with climatic patterns linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Based on our mechanistic model, we find that the reduction in malaria is likely due to the large scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets, which reduce the infections of P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria by 93.4% and 35.5%, respectively. Mass drug administration has a greater contribution in the control of P. falciparum (54.9%) than P. vivax (5.3%). In a comparison of interventions, indoor residual spraying makes a relatively minor contribution to malaria control (1.3%-9.6%). Conclusions: Although malaria transmission on Hainan Island has been exacerbated by El Nino Southern Oscillation, control methods have eliminated both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria from this part of China.

Erratum: Author Correction: Malaria elimination on Hainan Island despite climate change.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00073-z.].

The relationship between rising temperatures and malaria incidence in Hainan, China, from 1984 to 2010: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The influence of rising global temperatures on malaria dynamics and distribution remains controversial, especially in central highland regions. We aimed to address this subject by studying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of malaria and the effect of climate change on malaria transmission over 27 years in Hainan, an island province in China. METHODS: For this longitudinal cohort study, we used a decades-long dataset of malaria incidence reports from Hainan, China, to investigate the pattern of malaria transmission in Hainan relative to temperature and the incidence at increasing altitudes. Climatic data were obtained from the local meteorological stations in Hainan during 1984-2010 and the WorldClim dataset. A temperature-dependent R0 model and negative binomial generalised linear model were used to decipher the relationship between climate factors and malaria incidence in the tropical region. FINDINGS: Over the past few decades, the annual peak incidence has appeared earlier in the central highland regions but later in low-altitude regions in Hainan, China. Results from the temperature-dependent model showed that these long-term changes of incidence peak timing are linked to rising temperatures (of about 1·5°C). Further, a 1°C increase corresponds to a change in cases of malaria from -5·6% (95% CI -4·5 to -6·6) to -9·2% (95% CI -7·6 to -10·9) from the northern plain regions to the central highland regions during the rainy season. In the dry season, the change in cases would be 4·6% (95% CI 3·7 to 5·5) to 11·9% (95% CI 9·8 to 14·2) from low-altitude areas to high-altitude areas. INTERPRETATION: Our study empirically supports the idea that increasing temperatures can generate opposing effects on malaria dynamics for lowland and highland regions. This should be further investigated and incorporated into future modelling, disease burden calculations, and malaria control, with attention for central highland regions under climate change. FUNDING: Scientific and Technological Innovation 2030: Major Project of New Generation Artificial Intelligence, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST, Research on Key Technologies of Plague Prevention and Control in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science.

Influenza A (H1N1) transmission by road traffic between cities and towns.

Influenza A (H1N1) was spread widely between cities and towns by road traffic and had a major impact on public health in China in 2009. Understanding regulation of its transmission is of great significance with urbanization ongoing and for mitigation of damage by the epidemic. We analyzed influenza A (H1N1) spatiotemporal transmission and risk factors along roads in Changsha, and combined diffusion velocity and floating population size to construct an epidemic diffusion model to simulate its transmission between cities and towns. The results showed that areas along the highways and road intersections had a higher incidence rate than other areas. Expressways and county roads played an important role in the rapid development stage and the epidemic peak, respectively, and intercity bus stations showed a high risk of disease transmission. The model simulates the intensity and center of disease outbreaks in cities and towns, and provides a more complete simulation of the disease spatiotemporal process than other models.

EGFR exon 20 insertion mutations in Chinese advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients: Molecular heterogeneity and treatment outcome from nationwide real-world study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the treatment patterns and outcomes of Chinese non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) exon 20 insertion (ex20ins) mutations in real-world as EGFR ex20ins consist of a diverse group of mutations with limited information on the clinical outcome of these patients treated with chemotherapy or EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Real-world treatment outcomes of Chinese NSCLC patients harboring EGFR ex20ins were retrospectively analyzed based on medical records at different institutions and detailed web-based patient questionnaires. RESULTS: Between March 17, 2018 and December 20, 2018, 165 advanced EGFR ex20ins NSCLC patients treated in 99 hospitals from 26 different regions in China were analyzed. Thirty-nine different molecular variants of EGFR ex20ins were identified with V769_D770insASV being the most common (23.0 %). Central nervous system (CNS) metastasis occurred in 23.0 % of patients at the time of baseline diagnosis. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly longer in patients who received first-line platinum-based chemotherapy (6.4 m; 95 % CI: 5.7-7.1) than all-generation EGFR TKIs (2.9 m; 95 %CI: 1.5-4.3; P < 0.001) or 1st-generation EGFR TKIs (2.0 m; 95 %CI: 0.2-3.8; P < 0.001). Median PFS was numerically longer in patients who received second-line chemotherapy (4.0 m; 95 %CI: 3.2-4.8) than those received second-line EGFR TKIs (2.0 m; 95 %CI: 1.1-2.9; P = 0.342). Patients with CNS metastasis had numerically shorter median PFS than those without CNS metastasis when treated with 1st-line chemotherapy (3.6 m; 95 %CI: 0-8.0 vs. 6.5 m; 95 %CI: 4.9-8.1; P = 0.645) or 1st-line EGFR TKIs (2.0 m; 95 %CI: 0.8-3.2 vs. 2.9 m; 95 %CI: 2.1-3.7; P = 0.058). CONCLUSION: Chemotherapy is superior to current approved EGFR TKIs as 1st- or 2nd-line treatment of EGFR ex20ins mutations. CNS metastasis conferred numerically shorter PFS with chemotherapy or EGFR TKIs treatment. Targeted agent against EGFR ex20ins with CNS activity is urgently needed.

Infectious Disease Information Collection System at the Scene of Disaster Relief Based on a Personal Digital Assistant.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to build a database to collect infectious disease information at the scene of a disaster through the use of 128 epidemiological questionnaires and 47 types of options, with rapid acquisition of information regarding infectious disease and rapid questionnaire customization at the scene of disaster relief by use of a personal digital assistant (PDA). METHODS: SQL Server 2005 (Microsoft Corp, Redmond, WA) was used to create the option database for the infectious disease investigation, to develop a client application for the PDA, and to deploy the application on the server side. The users accessed the server for data collection and questionnaire customization with the PDA. RESULTS: A database with a set of comprehensive options was created and an application system was developed for the Android operating system (Google Inc, Mountain View, CA). On this basis, an infectious disease information collection system was built for use at the scene of disaster relief. The creation of an infectious disease information collection system and rapid questionnaire customization through the use of a PDA was achieved. CONCLUSIONS: This system integrated computer technology and mobile communication technology to develop an infectious disease information collection system and to allow for rapid questionnaire customization at the scene of disaster relief. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:668-673).

Safety and immunogenicity of 3 seasonal trivalent influenza vaccines in the Chinese military.

Influenza, caused by the influenza virus, is a contagious acute viral respiratory disease with a high incidence rate and wide and rapid spread. Influenza-related morbidity, mortality, and hospitalization rates remain high and are increasing continuously in high-risk groups, with a significant impact on human health and the economy. In order to evaluate the immunogenicity of 3 seasonal trivalent influenza vaccines in Chinese military, we conducted this field trial. We assessed the safety and immunogenicity of 3 seasonal trivalent influenza vaccines(TIVs)manufactured by GlaxoSmithKline(GSK), Beijing Sinovac Biotech (Sinovac), and Shenzhen Sanofi Pasteur (Pasteur) in healthy Chinese servicemen. We used theimported GSKTIV as the control, comparing it with the 2 domestic TIVs in a 1:1:1randomized, double-blind, controlled trial in a military command in Beijing. Healthy individuals, aged between 18 and 34 years, who had not received any influenza vaccine in the preceding3 years were enrolled and administered one dose of a TIV. Safety data were collected throughout the whole study (day 0 to day 30). Blood samples were collected to assess the subjects' immunogenicity before vaccination and 21 d after vaccination. In total, 292 subjects enrolled in the study. Twelve participants (4.1%) reported 12 adverse events. The incidence of adverse events was 1%, 5%, and7% for the GSK, Sinovac, and Pasteur TIVs, respectively. The reported injection-site reaction frequencies were similar for all 3 TIVs (p = 0.217). However, the proportion of systemic reactions was higher after the GSKTIV than after the Pasteur or Sinovac TIV (7.1% vs 3.1% or1%, respectively; p = 0.020). Three TIVs satisfied both the European and US Food and Drug Administration criteria for H1N1-179, H1N1-74, H3N2, and B strains based on the post vaccination sero-protection, the sero-conversion rate, and the geometric mean titer ratio. The Sinovac TIV, Pasteur TIV, and GSK TIV were well tolerated and immunogenic in healthy servicemen in the military. There was no significant difference in the immunogenicity of these 3 vaccines.

Decision support system for the response to infectious disease emergencies based on WebGIS and mobile services in China.

BACKGROUND: For years, emerging infectious diseases have appeared worldwide and threatened the health of people. The emergence and spread of an infectious-disease outbreak are usually unforeseen, and have the features of suddenness and uncertainty. Timely understanding of basic information in the field, and the collection and analysis of epidemiological information, is helpful in making rapid decisions and responding to an infectious-disease emergency. Therefore, it is necessary to have an unobstructed channel and convenient tool for the collection and analysis of epidemiologic information in the field. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Baseline information for each county in mainland China was collected and a database was established by geo-coding information on a digital map of county boundaries throughout the country. Google Maps was used to display geographic information and to conduct calculations related to maps, and the 3G wireless network was used to transmit information collected in the field to the server. This study established a decision support system for the response to infectious-disease emergencies based on WebGIS and mobile services (DSSRIDE). The DSSRIDE provides functions including data collection, communication and analyses in real time, epidemiological detection, the provision of customized epidemiological questionnaires and guides for handling infectious disease emergencies, and the querying of professional knowledge in the field. These functions of the DSSRIDE could be helpful for epidemiological investigations in the field and the handling of infectious-disease emergencies. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The DSSRIDE provides a geographic information platform based on the Google Maps application programming interface to display information of infectious disease emergencies, and transfers information between workers in the field and decision makers through wireless transmission based on personal computers, mobile phones and personal digital assistants. After a 2-year practice and application in infectious disease emergencies, the DSSRIDE is becoming a useful platform and is a useful tool for investigations in the field carried out by response sections and individuals. The system is suitable for use in developing countries and low-income districts.

[Design and implementation of Geographical Information System on prevention and control of cholera].

To build the Geographical Information System (GIS) database for prevention and control of cholera programs as well as using management analysis and function demonstration to show the spatial attribute of cholera. Data from case reporting system regarding diarrhoea, vibrio cholerae, serotypes of vibrio cholerae at the surveillance spots and seafoods, as well as surveillance data on ambient environment and climate were collected. All the data were imported to system database to show the incidence of vibrio cholerae in different provinces, regions and counties to support the spatial analysis through the spatial analysis of GIS. The epidemic trends of cholera, seasonal characteristics of the cholera and the variation of the vibrio cholerae with times were better understood. Information on hotspots, regions and time of epidemics was collected, and helpful in providing risk prediction on the incidence of vibrio cholerae. The exploitation of the software can predict and simulate the spatio-temporal risks, so as to provide guidance for the prevention and control of the disease.

Change in rainfall drives malaria re-emergence in Anhui Province, China.

Malaria is re-emerging in Anhui Province, China after a decade long' low level of endemicity. The number of human cases has increased rapidly since 2000 and reached its peak in 2006. That year, the malaria cases accounted for 54.5% of total cases in mainland China. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of human cases and factors underlying the re-emergence remain unclear. We established a database containing 20 years' (1990-2009) records of monthly reported malaria cases and meteorological parameters. Spearman correlations were used to assess the crude association between malaria incidence and meteorological variables, and a polynomial distributed lag (PDL) time-series regression was performed to examine contribution of meteorological factors to malaria transmission in three geographic regions (northern, mid and southern Anhui Province), respectively. Then, a two-year (2008-2009) prediction was performed to validate the PDL model that was created by using the data collected from 1990 to 2007. We found that malaria incidence decreased in Anhui Province in 1990s. However, the incidence has dramatically increased in the north since 2000, while the transmission has remained at a relatively low level in the mid and south. Spearman correlation analyses showed that the monthly incidences of malaria were significantly associated with temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation index with lags of 0-2 months in all three regions. The PDL model revealed that only rainfall with a 1-2 month lag was significantly associated with malaria incidence in all three regions. The model validation showed a high accuracy for the prediction of monthly incidence over a 2-year predictive period. Malaria epidemics showed a high spatial heterogeneity in Anhui Province during the 1990-2009 study periods. The change in rainfall drives the reemergence of malaria in the northern Anhui Province.

[Study on the spread of influenza A (H1N1) under community based simulation model].

UNLABELLED: A simulation experiment was carried out by applying the simulation model to spread of influenza A (H1N1) in communities with different population density. Population at the community-level was divided into susceptible, infected and recovered ones, according to the susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model, and the age structure of the population was set on the basis of data from the Fifth Population Census. Contact and moving of the individuals were based on the Network Random Contact Model and the mortality and infection mode were established in line with the influenza A (H1N1) medical description. The results of an example analysis showed that the infection rate was closely related to the density of the community-based population while the rate on early infection grew rapidly. Influenza A (H1N1) seemed more likely to break out in the community with population density of over 50/hm². Comparative tests showed that vaccination could effectively restrain the spread of influenza A (H1N1) at the community level. CONCLUSION: Population density, and the coverage of influenza vaccination were risk factors for influenza A (H1N1) epidemics. Results of the experiment showed of value, for prevention and vaccination on this topic.

Spatiotemporal trends and climatic factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shandong Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by Hantaviruses. It is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Shandong Province is among the most serious endemic areas. HFRS cases in Shandong Province were first reported in Yutai County in 1968. Since then, the disease has spread across the province, and as of 2005, all 111 counties were reported to have local human infections. However, causes underlying such rapid spread and wide distribution remain less well understood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here we report a spatiotemporal analysis of human HFRS cases in Shandong using data spanning 1973 to 2005. Seasonal incidence maps and velocity vector maps were produced to analyze the spread of HFRS over time in Shandong Province, and a panel data analysis was conducted to explore the association between HFRS incidence and climatic factors. Results show a rapid spread of HFRS from its epicenter in Rizhao, Linyi, Weifang Regions in southern Shandong to north, east, and west parts of the province. Based on seasonal shifts of epidemics, three epidemic phases were identified over the 33-year period. The first phase occurred between 1973 and 1982 during which the foci of HFRS was located in the south Shandong and the epidemic peak occurred in the fall and winter, presenting a seasonal characteristic of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The second phase between 1983 and 1985 was characterized by northward and westward spread of HFRS foci, and increases in incidence of HFRS in both fall-winter and spring seasons. The human infections in the spring reflected a characteristic pattern of Seoul virus (SEOV) transmission. The third phase between 1986 and 2005 was characterized by the northeast spread of the HFRS foci until it covered all counties, and the HFRS incidence in the fall-winter season decreased while it remained high in the spring. In addition, our findings suggest that precipitation, humidity, and temperature are major environmental variables that are associated with the seasonal variation of HFRS incidence in Shandong Province. CONCLUSIONS: The spread of HFRS in Shandong Province may have been accompanied by seasonal shifts of HTNV-dominated transmission to SEOV-dominated transmission over the past three decades. The variations in HFRS incidence were significantly associated with local precipitation, humidity, and temperature.

[Epidemiological characteristics of 420 influenza A (H1N1) cases confirmed in the early stage of the epidemic in mainland China].

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemical characteristics of A (H1N1) influenza identified in the early stage (from May 11 to June 22, 2009) of the epidemic, in mainland China. METHODS: Epidemical characteristics of 420 confirmed A (H1N1) influenza cases reported from May 11 to June 22, 2009 were analyzed descriptively, including the distribution of age, sex, source of infection, main symptoms and incubation period. RESULTS: A total of 77.8% early cases in mainland China were imported from other countries. Three countries including America, Canada and Australia were attributed to 90% of the imported cases. Most of the cases were from 6 months to 73 years old, with 94% of them under 50 years. Most of the symptoms would include fever (81%), cough (40%) and sore throat (35%). The mean incubation period of second-generation cases was 4.3 (4.2 +/- 1.5) days. CONCLUSION: Imported cases dominated the total cases in the early stage of the epidemic had similar gender distribution of those from exporting countries. Fever, cough and sore throat were the three main symptoms manifested in influenza cases. 2.5 +/- 1.9 (1 - 11) days was found in imported cases between the day of off-board and the onset of symptoms. The incubation period was 4.3 +/- 1.7 (1 - 8) days among the secondary cases.