RESUMO
Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Produtos Agrícolas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Glycine max/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Temperatura Alta , Modelos Biológicos , Poaceae/crescimento & desenvolvimentoRESUMO
The global atmospheric CO(2) concentration is currently (2012) 393.1 µmol mol(-1), an increase of approximately 42 % over pre-industrial levels. In order to understand the responses of metabolic enzymes to elevated CO(2) concentrations, an experiment was conducted using the Free Air CO(2) Enrichment (FACE )system. Two conventional japonica rice varieties (Oryza sativa L. ssp. japonica) grown in North China, Songjing 9 and Daohuaxiang 2, were used in this study. The activities of ADPG pyrophosphorylase, soluble and granule-bound starch synthases, and soluble and granule-bound starch branching enzymes were measured in rice grains, and the effects of elevated CO(2) on the amylose and protein contents of the grains were analyzed. The results showed that elevated CO(2) levels significantly increased the activity of ADPG pyrophosphorylase at day 8, 24, and 40 after flower, with maximum increases of 56.67 % for Songjing 9 and 21.31 % for Daohuaxiang 2. Similarly, the activities of starch synthesis enzymes increased significantly from the day 24 after flower to the day 40 after flower, with maximum increases of 36.81 % for Songjing 9 and 66.67 % for Daohuaxiang 2 in soluble starch synthase (SSS), and 25.00 % for Songjing 9 and 36.44 % for Daohuaxiang 2 in granule-bound starch synthase (GBSS), respectively. The elevated CO(2) concentration significantly increased the activity of soluble starch branching enzyme (SSBE) at day 16, 32, and 40 after flower, and also significantly increased the activity of granule-bound starch branching enzyme (GBSBE) at day 8, 32, and 40 after flower. The elevated CO(2) concentration increased the peak values of enzyme activity, and the timing of the activity peaks for SSS and GBSBE were earlier in Songjing 9 than in Daohuaxiang 2. There were obvious differences in developmental stages between the two varieties of rice, which indicated that the elevated CO(2) concentration increased enzyme activity expression and starch synthesis, affecting the final contents of starch and protein in the rice grains. Our results will provide a foundation for understanding the physiological mechanisms of rice yield under elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentrations.
Assuntos
Enzima Ramificadora de 1,4-alfa-Glucana/metabolismo , Dióxido de Carbono/farmacologia , Glucose-1-Fosfato Adenililtransferase/metabolismo , Oryza/efeitos dos fármacos , Sintase do Amido/metabolismo , Amilose/metabolismo , Oryza/enzimologia , Oryza/metabolismo , Proteínas de Plantas/metabolismo , Amido/metabolismoRESUMO
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the most important greenhouse gases emitted from fertilized agricultural soils. Vegetable fields, mostly managed under intensive mode with higher rate nitrogen application, frequent irrigation, and multiple planting-harvest cycles, does contribute to national GHG inventory greatly due to the increasing planting area in China. N2O emissions from four different fields - a maize field (maize), a newly established open-ground vegetable field converted from a maize field four years earlier (OV4), an established open-ground vegetable field converted from a maize field more than 20 years ago (OV20), and an established sunlight heated greenhouse vegetable field converted from a maize field more than 20 years ago (GV20) with four different fertilization treatments for the OV4 field were measured using the closed chamber method between March 15th, 2012 and March 14th, 2013 in suburban area of Beijing, North China Plain. Results showed that the annual N2O emissions from vegetable fields were 3.1-4.6 times higher than the typical maize field. All the N2O emission peaks were occurred after fertilization and the fertilization associated emissions accounted for 81.1% (ranging from 77.0% to 87.2%) of the annual N2O emission with 22.2% time duration in the whole year for vegetable fields. Both the occurrence data and duration of N2O emission peaks were associated with N input type (chemical or manure) and the application rate. The N2O emission peaks appeared earlier (on the 3rd day after application) and lasted shorter when only chemical N was applied; while they appeared later (on the 7th to 10th day after application) and lasted longer when the combination of manure and chemical N were applied. The magnitudes of N2O emission peaks increased when the N application rate was higher. Dicyandiamide (DCD) decreased N2O emissions by 30.1% and 21.1% in the spring cucumber and autumn cabbage seasons respectively (averaged of 24.7% over the whole year). Calculations showed that it is critical to estimate the emission factor (EF) by N type in order to decrease the uncertainty of regional N2O emissions when using EF as calculation method. EFs were 0.20% and 0.42% for manure N in the cucumber and cabbage seasons respectively; and were 0.55-1.30% and 0.8-1.59% for chemical N in the cucumber and cabbage seasons respectively.
Assuntos
Agricultura , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Produtos Agrícolas/química , Monitoramento Ambiental , Óxido Nitroso/análise , Verduras/química , ChinaRESUMO
Recently, several reports have suggested that the growth and grain yield of wheat are significantly influenced by high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) because of it photosynthesis enhancing effects. Moreover, it has been proposed that plants with large carbon sink size will benefit more from CO2 enrichment than those with small carbon sink size. However, this hypothesis is yet to be test in winter wheat plant. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the effect of elevated CO2 (eCO2) conditions on the quantum efficiency of photosystem II (PSII) photochemistry in large ear-type (cv. Shanhan 8675; greater ear C sink strength) and small multiple ear-type (cv. Early premium; greater vegetative C source strength) winter wheat varieties. The experiment was conducted in a free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) facility, and three de-excitation pathways of the primary reaction of PSII of flag leaf at the anthesis stage were evaluated under two CO2 concentrations (ambient [CO2], â¼415 µmolâ mol-1, elevated [CO2], â¼550 µmolâ mol-1) using a non-destructive technique of modulated chlorophyll fluorescence. Additionally, the grain yield of the two varieties was determined at maturity. Although elevated CO2 increased the quantum efficiency of PSII photochemistry (ΦPSII) of Shanhan 8675 (SH8675) flag leaves at the anthesis stage, the grain number per ear and 1,000-kernel weight were not significantly affected. In contrast, the ΦPSII of early premium (ZYM) flag leaves was significantly lower than that of SH8675 flag leaves at the anthesis stage, which was caused by an increase in the regulatory non-photochemical energy dissipation quantum (ΦNPQ) of PSII, suggesting that light energy absorbed by PSII in ZYM flag leaf was largely dissipated as thermal energy. The findings of our study showed that although SH8675 flag leaves exhibited higher C sink strength and quantum efficiency of PSII photochemistry at the anthesis stage, these factors alone do not ensure improved grain yield under eCO2 conditions.
RESUMO
Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, -32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example, +193% in Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.
Assuntos
Cerveja/provisão & distribuição , Secas , Calor Extremo , Mudança Climática , Produção Agrícola , Hordeum/crescimento & desenvolvimentoRESUMO
Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.
Assuntos
Clima , Ecossistema , Desenvolvimento Vegetal/fisiologia , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Mudança Climática , Pradaria , Estações do Ano , Temperatura , Tibet , Água/metabolismoRESUMO
The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.
Assuntos
Clima , Abastecimento de Água/normas , Agricultura , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Previsões , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
Traditional Chinese medicine relies heavily on herbs, yet there is no information on how these herb plants would respond to climate change. In order to gain insight into such response, we studied the effect of elevated [CO2] on Isatis indigotica Fort, one of the most popular Chinese herb plants. The changes in leaf photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf ultrastructure and biomass yield in response to elevated [CO2] (550±19 µmol mol(-1)) were determined at the Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experimental facility in North China. Photosynthetic ability of I. indigotica was improved under elevated [CO2]. Elevated [CO2] increased net photosynthetic rate (P N), water use efficiency (WUE) and maximum rate of electron transport (J max) of upper most fully-expended leaves, but not stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration ratio (Tr) and maximum velocity of carboxylation (V c,max). Elevated [CO2] significantly increased leaf intrinsic efficiency of PSII (Fv'/Fm') and quantum yield of PSII(ΦPS II ), but decreased leaf non-photochemical quenching (NPQ), and did not affect leaf proportion of open PSII reaction centers (qP) and maximum quantum efficiency of PSII (Fv/Fm). The structural chloroplast membrane, grana layer and stroma thylakoid membranes were intact under elevated [CO2], though more starch grains were accumulated within the chloroplasts than that of under ambient [CO2]. While the yield of I. indigotica was higher due to the improved photosynthesis under elevated [CO2], the content of adenosine, one of the functional ingredients in indigowoad root was not affected.
Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono/farmacologia , Isatis/fisiologia , Isatis/ultraestrutura , Fotossíntese/efeitos dos fármacos , Folhas de Planta/fisiologia , Folhas de Planta/ultraestrutura , Adenosina/metabolismo , Ar , Biomassa , Clorofila/metabolismo , Fluorescência , Isatis/efeitos dos fármacos , Células do Mesofilo/efeitos dos fármacos , Células do Mesofilo/fisiologia , Células do Mesofilo/ultraestrutura , Folhas de Planta/citologia , Folhas de Planta/efeitos dos fármacos , Raízes de Plantas/efeitos dos fármacos , Raízes de Plantas/metabolismoRESUMO
By using free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) system, a pot experiment under field condition was conducted to study the effects of elevated CO2 concentration (550 +/- 60 micromol mol(-1)) on the leaf photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence parameters of mung bean. Comparing with the control (CO2 concentration averagely 389 +/- 40 micromol mol(-1)), elevated CO2 concentration increased the leaf intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) and net photosynthesis rate (P(n)) at flowering and pod growth stage by 9.8% and 11.7%, decreased the stomatic conductance (G(s)) and transpiration rate (T(r)) by 32.0% and 24.6%, respectively, and increased the water use efficiency (WUE) by 83.5%. Elevated CO2 concentration had lesser effects on the minimal fluorescence (F0), maximal fluorescence (F(m)), variable fluorescence (F(v)), ratio of variable fluorescence to minimal fluorescence (F(v)/F0), and ratio of variable fluorescence to maximal fluorescence (F(v)/F(m)) at bud stage, but increased the F0 at pod filling stage by 19.1% and decreased the Fm, F(v), F(v)/F0, and F(v)/F(m) by 9.0%, 14.3%, 25.8% , and 6.2%, respectively. These results suggested that elevated CO2 concentration could damage the structure of leaf photosystem II and consequently decrease the leaf photosynthetic capacity in the late growth phase of mung bean.
Assuntos
Atmosfera/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Clorofila/metabolismo , Fabaceae/fisiologia , Fotossíntese/fisiologia , Fluorescência , Complexo de Proteína do Fotossistema II/efeitos dos fármacos , Folhas de Planta/fisiologiaRESUMO
Since the industrial revolution, the rapid increase of global atmospheric concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases has induced the global warming and the change of global precipitation pattern. The growth, development, yield, and quality of soybean are subject to all these changes of climatic conditions. Soybean is one of the major grain and oil crops in the world and in China, and any change in the soybean production under future climate scenario will affect the grain- and edible oil security nationally and internationally. This paper reviewed the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, global warming, and water stress on soybean growth, and discussed the future research needs, which could provide scientific basis for realizing soybean production in the future and for implementing in advance proper policies in the context of climatic change impact on soybean production.
Assuntos
Biomassa , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Mudança Climática , Glycine max/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Efeito Estufa , China , EcossistemaRESUMO
Crop grain quality is mainly depended on variety's genetic characteristics and environmental conditions, while elevated CO2 concentration in atmosphere, one of the main factors resulting in global climate change, would have a significant effect on crop grain quality. In this paper, the research progress on the effects of CO2 enrichment on rice and wheat grain quality was summarized from the aspects of protein and nitrogen contents, trace elements, and other characters, emphasized the necessity and urgency of the study in this field, and pointed out the key directions and contents of further study, i.e., (a) direct effects of CO2 enrichment on rice and wheat grain quality and their differences for different varieties, (b) integrated effects of CO2 enrichment and other climate factors on rice and wheat grain quality and their quantitative indices, (c) action mechanisms of CO2 enrichment and other climate factors on rice and wheat grain quality formation, (d) longterm directions and strategies of rice and wheat breeding in quality improvement to adapt climate change, (e) integrated planting technology systems in quality improvement for adapting climate change, and (f) application of molecule-marker and gene-transfer in rice and wheat breeding for quality improvement.
Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Oryza/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Proteínas de Plantas/análise , Triticum/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Ar/análise , Efeito Estufa , Nitrogênio/análise , Oryza/metabolismo , Controle de Qualidade , Triticum/metabolismoRESUMO
Based on the remote sensing data, meteorological data and other related data from 1981 to 2004, the grassland net primary productivity (NPP) and its spatiotemporal distribution in Northern Tibet were analyzed by CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model. The results indicated that in the study area, the spatial distribution of grassland NPP was affected by the local water and heat conditions, and represented a horizontal zonality. From southeast to northwest, the grassland NPP reduced from 230 g C x m(-2) x a(-1) to near 0 g C x m(-2) x a(-1). The overall level of grassland NPP in Northern Tibet was rather low, with the multi-years average value of total NPP being 21.3 x 10(12) g C x a(-1) and the mean value of NPP being 48.1 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), which were obviously lower than those in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and other grassland areas of China. The mean values of NPP on flat land (slope gradient <1 degree) and south slope were relatively lower. On the main alpine grasslands in Northern Tibet, the NPP from July to September occupied 64.0%-70.0% of the whole year. From 1981 to 2004, the grassland NPP within the whole Northern Tibet had a greater annual fluctuation, and tended to further reduce.
Assuntos
Biomassa , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Modelos Teóricos , Poaceae/crescimento & desenvolvimento , TibetRESUMO
Based on the newest emission scenarios of SO2 and greenhouse gases, i. e., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, and by using RCM (Regional Climate Model)-PRECIS and CERES-Rice model, this paper simulated the rice yield change in 2080 at 50 x 50 km scale. The results showed that there was a great range of yield change across whole China. The yield would increase along the Changjiang River and in South China, and decrease in North and Northeast China. Because of the direct effect of CO2 on rice growth, the SRES A2 scenario would be more positive to the increase of rice yield than B2. In 2080, the total rice yield in whole China would increase under A2 emission scenario, while decrease under B2 emission scenario.