Prognostic significance of postoperative serological incomplete conversion of AFP and PIVKA-II after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter analysis of 1755 patients.

BACKGROUND: The value of serum biomarkers, particularly alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), gains increasing attention in prognostic evaluation and recurrence monitoring for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study investigated the implications of serological incomplete conversion (SIC) of these 2 biomarkers as prognostic indicators for long-term outcomes after HCC resection. METHODS: A multicenter observational study was conducted on a cohort of HCC patients presenting with AFP (>20 ng/mL) or PIVKA-II (>40 mAU/mL) positivity who underwent curative-intent resection. Based on their postoperative AFP and PIVKA-II levels at first postoperative follow-up (4~8 weeks after surgery), these patients were stratified into the serological incomplete conversion (SIC) and serological complete conversion (SCC) groups. The study endpoints were recurrence and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Among 1755 patients, 379 and 1376 were categorized as having SIC and SCC, respectively. The SIC group exhibited 1- and 5-year OS rates of 67.5% and 26.3%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 53.2% and 79.0%, respectively; while the SCC group displayed 1- and 5-year OS rates of 95.8% and 62.5%, with the corresponding recurrence rates of 16.8% and 48.8%, respectively (both P < .001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that postoperative SIC was an independent risk factor for both increased recurrence (HR: 2.40, 95% CI, 2.04-2.81, P < .001) and decreased OS (HR: 2.69, 95% CI, 2.24-3.24, P < .001). CONCLUSION: The results emphasize that postoperative incomplete conversion of either AFP or PIVKA-II is a significant prognostic marker, indicating a higher risk for adverse oncologic outcomes following HCC resection. This revelation has crucial implications for refining postoperative adjuvant therapy and surveillance strategies for HCC patients.

Impact of Hepatic Pedicle Clamping on Long-Term Survival Following Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Stratified Analysis Based on Intraoperative Blood Transfusion Status.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic pedicle clamping (HPC) is frequently utilized during hepatectomy to reduce intraoperative bleeding and diminish the need for intraoperative blood transfusion (IBT). The long-term prognostic implications of HPC following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain under debate. This study aims to elucidate the association between HPC and oncologic outcomes after HCC resection, stratified by whether IBT was administered. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospectively collected data on patients with HCC who underwent curative resection from a multicenter database was studied. Patients were stratified into two cohorts on the basis of whether IBT was administered. The impact of HPC on long-term overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) between the two cohorts was assessed by univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Of 3362 patients, 535 received IBT. In the IBT cohort, using or not using HPC showed no significant difference in OS and RFS outcomes (5-year OS and RFS rates 27.9% vs. 24.6% and 13.8% vs. 12.0%, P = 0.810 and 0.530). However, in the non-IBT cohort of 2827 patients, the HPC subgroup demonstrated significantly decreased OS (5-year 45.9% vs. 56.5%, P < 0.001) and RFS (5-year 24.7% vs. 33.3%, P < 0.001) when compared with the subgroup without HPC. Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified HPC as an independent risk factor of OS and RFS [hazard ratios (HR) 1.16 and 1.12, P = 0.024 and 0.044, respectively] among patients who did not receive IBT. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of HPC on the oncological outcomes following hepatectomy for patients with HCC differed significantly whether IBT was administered, and HPC adversely impacted on long-term survival for patients without receiving IBT during hepatectomy.

Tumor burden score and carcinoembryonic antigen predict outcomes in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma following liver resection: a multi­institutional analysis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of tumor burden score (TBS) in relation to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) has not been investigated among patients undergoing hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aimed to develop and validate a simplified model, a combination of TBS and CEA (CTC grade), for predicting the long-term outcomes of postoperative ICC patients. METHODS: Patients who underwent curative - intent resection of ICC between 2011 and 2019 were identified from a large multi - institutional database. The impact of TBS, CEA, and the CTC grade on overall survival (OS) and recurrence - free survival (RFS) was evaluated in both the derivation and validation cohorts. The receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized for assessing the predictive accuracy of the model. Subgroup analyses were performed across 8th TNM stage system stratified by CTC grade to assess the discriminatory capacity within the same TNM stage. RESULTS: A total of 812 patients were included in the derivation cohort and 266 patients in the validation cohort. Survival varied based on CEA (low: 36.7% vs. high: 9.0%) and TBS (low: 40.3% vs. high: 17.6%) in relation to 5 - year survival (both p < 0.001). As expected, patients with low CTC grade (i.e., low TBS/low CEA) were associated with the best OS as well as RFS, while high CTC grade (i.e., high TBS/high CEA) correlated to the worst outcomes. The model exhibited well performance in both the derivation cohort (area under the curve of 0.694) and the validation cohort (0.664). The predictive efficacy of the CTC grade system remains consistently stable across TNM stages I and III/IV. CONCLUSION: The CTC grade, a composite parameter derived from the combination of TBS and CEA levels, served as an easy - to - use tool and performed well in stratifying patients with ICC relative to OS and RFS.

A novel preoperative inflammation score system established for postoperative prognosis predicting of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is implicated in tumorigenesis and has been reported as an important prognostic factor in cancers. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a novel inflammation score (IFS) system based on 12 inflammatory markers and explore its impact on intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) survival after hepatectomy. METHODS: Clinical data of 446 ICC patients undergoing surgical treatment were collected from the Primary Liver Cancer Big Data, and then served as a training cohort to establish the IFS. Furthermore, an internal validation cohort including 175 patients was used as internal validation cohort of the IFS. A survival tree analysis was used to divide ICC patients into three groups (low-, median-, and high- IFS-score groups) according to different IFS values. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were used to compare the overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates among three different groups. Cox regression analyses were applied to explore the independent risk factors influencing OS and RFS. RESULTS: In the training cohort, 149 patients were in the low-IFS-score group, 187 in the median-IFS-score group, and 110 in the high-IFS-score group. KM curves showed that the high-IFS-score group had worse OS and RFS rates than those of the low- and median-IFS-score groups (P < 0.001) in both the training and validation cohorts. Moreover, multivariable Cox analyses identified high IFS as an independent risk factor for OS and RFS in the training cohort. The area under the curve values for OS prediction of IFS were 0.703 and 0.664 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, which were higher than those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition TNM stage, AJCC 8th edition TNM stage, and the Child-Pugh score. CONCLUSION: Our results revealed the IFS was an independent risk factor for OS and RFS in patients with ICC after hepatectomy and could serve as an effective prognostic prediction system in daily clinical practice.

Development and validation a radiomics nomogram for predicting thymidylate synthase status in hepatocellular carcinoma based on Gd-DTPA contrast enhanced MRI.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting thymidylate synthase (TYMS) status in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by using Gd-DTPA contrast enhanced MRI. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 147 consecutive patients with surgically confirmed HCC and randomly allocated to training and validation set (7:3). The TYMS status was immunohistochemical determined and classified into low TYMS (positive cells ≤ 25%) and high TYMS (positive cells > 25%) groups. Radiomics features were extracted from the arterial phases and portal venous phase of Gd-DTPA contrast enhanced MRI. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were applied for generating the Rad score. Clinical data and MRI findings were assessed to build a clinical model. Rad score combined with clinical features was used to construct radiomics nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 2260 features were extracted and reduced to 7 features as the most important discriminators to build the Rad score. InAFP was identified as the only independent clinical factors for TYMS status. The radiomics nomogram showed good discrimination in training (AUC, 0.759; 95% CI 0.665-0.838) and validation set (AUC, 0.739; 95% CI 0.585-0.860), and showed better discrimination capability (P < 0.05) compared with clinical model in training (AUC, 0.656; 95% CI 0.555-0.746) and validation set (AUC, 0.622; 95% CI 0.463-0.764). CONCLUSIONS: The radiomics nomogram shows favorable predictive efficacy for TYMS status in HCC, which might be helpful for the personalized treatment of HCC.

Prognostic implications of alpha-fetoprotein and C-reactive protein elevation in hepatocellular carcinoma following resection (PACE): a large cohort study of 2770 patients.

BACKGROUND: Routine clinical staging for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incorporates liver function, general health, and tumor morphology. Further refinement of prognostic assessments and treatment decisions may benefit from the inclusion of tumor biological marker alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and systemic inflammation indicator C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Data from a multicenter cohort of 2770 HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy were analyzed. We developed the PACE risk score (Prognostic implications of AFP and CRP Elevation) after initially assessing preoperative AFP and CRP's prognostic value. Subgroup analyzes were performed in BCLC cohorts A and B using multivariable Cox analysis to evaluate the prognostic stratification ability of the PACE risk score and its complementary utility for BCLC staging. RESULTS: Preoperative AFP ≥ 400ng/mL and CRP ≥ 10 mg/L emerged as independent predictors of poorer prognosis in HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy, leading to the creation of the PACE risk score. PACE risk score stratified patients into low, intermediate, and high-risk groups with cumulative 5-year overall (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates of 59.6%/44.9%, 43.9%/38.4%, and 20.6%/18.0% respectively (all P < 0.001). Increased PACE risk scores correlated significantly with early recurrence and extrahepatic metastases frequency (all P < 0.001). The multivariable analysis identified intermediate and high-risk PACE scores as independently correlating with poor postoperative OS and RFS. Furthermore, the PACE risk score proficiently stratified the prognosis of BCLC stages A and B patients, with multivariable analyses demonstrating it as an independent prognostic determinant for both stages. CONCLUSION: The PACE risk score serves as an effective tool for postoperative risk stratification, potentially supplementing the BCLC staging system.

Prospective validation of the Eastern Staging in predicting survival after surgical resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study from China.

BACKGROUND: The Eastern Staging System, which was specially developed for patients undergoing surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has been proposed for more than ten years. To prospectively validate the predictive accuracy of the Eastern staging on long-term survival after HCC resection. METHODS: Patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC from 2011 to 2020 at 10 Chinese hospitals were identified from a prospectively collected database. The survival predictive accuracy was evaluated and compared between the Eastern Staging with six other staging systems, including the JIS, BCLC, Okuda, CLIP, 8th AJCC TNM, and HKLC staging. RESULTS: Among 2365 patients, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 84.2%, 64.5%, and 52.6%, respectively. Among these seven staging systems, the Eastern staging was associated with the best monotonicity of gradients (linear trend χ2: 408.5) and homogeneity (likelihood ratio χ2: 447.3), and the highest discriminatory ability (the areas under curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality: 0.776, 0.787, and 0.768, respectively). In addition, the Eastern staging was the most informative staging system in predicting survival (Akaike information criterion: 2982.33). CONCLUSION: Using a large multicenter prospectively collected database, the Eastern Staging was found to show the best predictive accuracy on long-term overall survival in patients with resectable HCC than the other 6 commonly-used staging systems.

Preoperative prediction of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma lymph node metastasis by means of machine learning: a multicenter study in China.

BACKGROUND: Hepatectomy is currently the most effective modality for the treatment of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). The status of the lymph nodes directly affects the choice of surgical method and the formulation of postoperative treatment plans. Therefore, a preoperative judgment of lymph node status is of great significance for patients diagnosed with this condition. Previous prediction models mostly adopted logistic regression modeling, and few relevant studies applied random forests in the prediction of ICC lymph node metastasis (LNM). METHODS: A total of 149 ICC patients who met clinical conditions were enrolled in the training group. Taking into account preoperative clinical data and imaging features, 21 indicators were included for analysis and modeling. Logistic regression was used to filter variables through multivariate analysis, and random forest regression was used to rank the importance of these variables through the use of algorithms. The model's prediction accuracy was assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and validated with external data. RESULT: Multivariate analysis shows that Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), Carbohydrate antigen19-9 (CA19-9), and lymphadenopathy on imaging are independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis. The random forest algorithm identifies the top four risk factors as CEA, CA19-9, and lymphadenopathy on imaging and Aspartate Transaminase (AST). The predictive power of random forest is significantly better than the nomogram established by logistic regression in both the validation group and the training group (Area Under Curve reached 0.758 in the validation group). CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a random forest model for predicting lymph node metastasis that, compared with the traditional nomogram, has higher prediction accuracy and simultaneously plays an auxiliary role in imaging examinations.

Clinical Significance of Alpha-Fetoprotein in Alpha-Fetoprotein Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma Underwent Curative Resection.

BACKGROUND: The clinical value of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in patients with AFP-negative (< 20 ng/ml) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent curative resection remained controversial. AIMS: To investigate clinical relevance and prognostic effect of preoperative serum AFP level in this subgroup. METHODS: A total of 1879 patients with AFP-negative HCC who underwent curative resection were included in the study. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rate were displayed by Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. Multivariate cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors. The prognostic predictive performance was analyzed by time-dependent areas under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Even in AFP-negative HCC, patients with high preoperative serum AFP level tended to have multiple tumor (P < 0.001), poorer differentiation of tumor cell (P < 0.001), presence of satellite nodules (P < 0.001), and MVI (P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed the adverse impact of AFP level on prognosis, especially for DFS. Multivariate analysis identified AFP as the independent unfavorable factor for OS and DFS (P < 0.001 for both). Time-dependent AUC analysis showed that the combination with AFP could improve the prognostic predictive performance of 8th AJCC and BCLC staging system. CONCLUSIONS: AFP was still the surrogate of aggressive behavior of HCC and independent prognostic factor for patients with AFP-negative HCC underwent curative resection. Even combining with such a low level of AFP could significantly improve the predictive performance of conventional staging system.

An MR-based radiomics model for differentiation between hepatocellular carcinoma and focal nodular hyperplasia in non-cirrhotic liver.

PURPOSE: We aimed to develop and validate a radiomics model for differentiating hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from focal nodular hyperplasia (FNH) in non-cirrhotic livers using Gd-DTPA contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 149 HCC and 75 FNH patients treated between May 2015 and May 2019 at our center. Patients were randomly allocated to a training (n=156) and validation set (n=68). In total, 2260 radiomics features were extracted from the arterial phase and portal venous phase of Gd-DTPA contrast-enhanced MRI. Using Max-Relevance and Min-Redundancy, random forest, least absolute shrinkage, and selection operator algorithm for dimensionality reduction, multivariable logistic regression was used to build the radiomics model. A clinical model and combined model were also established. The diagnostic performance of the models was compared. RESULTS: Eight radiomics features were chosen for the radiomics model, and four clinical factors (age, sex, HbsAg, and enhancement pattern) were chosen for the clinical model. A combined model was built using the factors from the previous models. The classification accuracy of the combined model differentiated HCC from FNH in both the training and validation sets (0.956 and 0.941, respectively). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the combined model was significantly better than that of the clinical model for both the training (0.984 vs. 0.937, p=0.002) and validation (0.972 vs. 0.903, p=0.032) sets. CONCLUSIONS: The combined model provided a non-invasive quantitative method for differentiating HCC from FNH in non-cirrhotic liver with high accuracy. Our model may assist clinicians in the clinical decision-making process.

Reclassification of tumor size for solitary HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma by minimum p value method: a large retrospective study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Tumor size is one of the most important issues for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment and prognosis, but the classification of it is still controversial. The aim of this study was to screen appropriate cutoffs for size of solitary hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC. METHODS: A cohort of 1760 patients with solitary HBV-related HCC undergoing curative liver resection was divided into 11 groups based on tumor size in 1-cm interval. The minimum p value method was used to screen the appropriate size cutoff according to overall survival (OS). If multiple cutoffs meet the above standard, a univariate analysis will be performed by using the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and hazard ratio (HR) will be considered as a criterion to assess the difference in survival. RESULTS: There are 8 dichotomy, 8 trichotomy, and no inquartation cutoffs that were screened when classifying tumor sizes in accordance with OS. The HR values of tumor size at these trichotomy cutoffs for OS were compared, and the highest HR value is 2.79 when size cutoff is 3/9 cm. Then, we reclassified patients into three new classifications: ≤ 3 cm (n = 422), > 3 and ≤ 9 cm (n = 1072), and > 9 cm (n = 266). The comparison of clinicopathologic characteristics among these three classifications showed that the increase of tumor size was associated with the increase of α-fetoprotein (AFP), microvascular invasion (MVI), tumor differentiation, and liver cirrhosis. And the comparison of the OS among three classifications showed statistical differences. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested that size criteria of 3 cm and 9 cm in solitary HBV-related HCC patients were appropriate based on biological characteristics and prognostic significance.

A novel HBx genotype serves as a preoperative predictor and fails to activate the JAK1/STATs pathway in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genetic variability in the hepatitis B virus X gene (HBx) is frequently observed and is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) progression. However, a genotype classification based on the full-length HBx sequence and the impact of genotypes on hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC prognosis remain unclear. We therefore aimed to perform this genotype classification and assess its clinical impact. METHODS: We classified the genotypes of the full-length HBx gene through sequencing and a cluster analysis of HBx DNA from a cohort of patients with HBV-related HCC, which served as the primary cohort (n = 284). Two independent HBV-related HCC cohorts, a validation cohort (n = 171) and a serum cohort (n = 168), were used to verify the results. Protein microarray assay analysis was performed to explore the underlying mechanism. RESULTS: In the primary cohort, the HBx DNA was classified into 3 genotypes: HBx-EHBH1, HBx-EHBH2, and HBx-EHBH3. HBx-EHBH2 (HBx-E2) indicated better recurrence-free survival and overall survival for patients with HCC. HBx-E2 was significantly correlated with the absence of liver cirrhosis, a small tumor size, a solitary tumor, complete encapsulation and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A-0 tumors. Additionally, HBx-E2 served as a significant prognostic factor for patients with BCLC stage B HCC after hepatectomy. Mechanistically, HBx-E2 is unable to promote proliferation in HCC cells and normal hepatocytes. It also fails to activate the Janus kinase 1 (JAK1)/signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3)/STAT5 pathway. CONCLUSION: Our study identifies a novel HBx genotype that is unable to promote the proliferation of HCC cells and suggests a potential marker to preoperatively predict the prognosis of patients with BCLC stage B, HBV-associated, HCC. LAY SUMMARY: We classified a novel genotype of the full-length hepatitis B virus X gene (HBx), HBx-E2. This genotype was identified in tumor and nontumor tissues from patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma. HBx-E2 could preoperatively predict the prognosis of patients with intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma, after resection.

Systemic genome screening identifies the outcome associated focal loss of long noncoding RNA PRAL in hepatocellular carcinoma.

UNLABELLED: Systemic analyses using large-scale genomic profiles have successfully identified cancer-driving somatic copy number variations (SCNVs) loci. However, functions of vast focal SCNVs in "protein-coding gene desert" regions are largely unknown. The integrative analysis of long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) expression profiles with SCNVs in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) led us to identify the recurrent deletion of lncRNA-PRAL (p53 regulation-associated lncRNA) on chromosome 17p13.1, whose genomic alterations were significantly associated with reduced survival of HCC patients. We found that lncRNA-PRAL could inhibit HCC growth and induce apoptosis in vivo and in vitro through p53. Subsequent investigations indicated that the three stem-loop motifs at the 5' end of lncRNA-PRAL facilitated the combination of HSP90 and p53 and thus competitively inhibited MDM2-dependent p53 ubiquitination, resulting in enhanced p53 stability. Additionally, in vivo lncRNA-PRAL delivery efficiently reduced intrinsic tumors, indicating its potential therapeutic application. CONCLUSIONS: lncRNA-PRAL, one of the key cancer-driving SCNVs, is a crucial stimulus for HCC growth and may serve as a potential target for antitumor therapy.

Aldolase B inhibits metastasis through Ten-Eleven Translocation 1 and serves as a prognostic biomarker in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Downregulation of Aldolase B (ALDOB) has been reported in hepatocellular carcinoma. However, its clinical significance and its role in pathogenesis of HCC remain largely unknown. METHODS: We analyzed the expression of ALDOB and its clinical features in a large cohort of 313 HCC patients using tissue microarray and immunohistochemistry. Moreover, the function of stably overexpressed ALDOB in HCC cells was explored in vitro and in vivo. Gene expression microarray analysis was performed on ALDOB-overexpressing SMMC7721 cells to elucidate its mechanism of action. RESULTS: ALDOB downregulation in HCC was significantly correlated with aggressive characteristics including absence of encapsulation, increased tumor size (>5 cm) and early recurrence. ALDOB downregulation was indicative of a shorter recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) for all HCC patients and early-stage HCC patients (BCLC 0-A and TNM I stage patients). Multiple analyses revealed that ALDOB downregulation was an independent risk factor of RFS and OS. Stable expression of ALDOB in HCC cell lines reduced cell migration in vitro and inhibited lung metastasis, intrahepatic metastasis, and reduced circulating tumor cells in vivo. Mechanistically, we found that cells stably expressing ALDOB show elevated Ten-Eleven Translocation 1 (TET1) expression. Moreover, ALDOB expressing cells have higher levels of methylglyoxal than do control cells, which can upregulate TET1 expression. CONCLUSION: The downregulation of ALDOB could indicate a poor prognosis for HCC patients, and therefore, ALDOB might be considered a prognostic biomarker for HCC, especially at the early stage. In addition, ALDOB inhibits the invasive features of cell lines partly through TET1 expression.

Development and comprehensive validation of a predictive prognosis model for very early HCC recurrence within one year after curative resection: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The high incidence of early recurrence after liver resection (LR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the main obstacle in achieving good long-term survival outcomes. The aim of the present study is to develop a prognostic model in predicting the risk of very early (1-year) recurrence. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Consecutive patients who underwent LR for HCC with curative intent at multicenters in China were enrolled in this study. The VERM-pre (the Preoperative Very Early Recurrence Model of HCC) with good performance was derived and validated by internal and external cohorts retrospectively and by another two-center cohort prospectively. RESULTS: Seven thousand four hundred one patients were enrolled and divided randomly into three cohorts. Eight variables (tumor diameter, tumor number, macrovascular invasion, satellite nodule, alpha-fetoprotein, level of HBV-DNA, γ-GT, and prothrombin time) were identified as independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival on univariate and multivariate analyses. The VERM-pre model was developed which showed a high capacity of discrimination (C-index: 0.722; AUROC at 1-year: 0.722)) and was validated comprehensively by the internal, external, and prospective cohorts, retrospectively. Calibration plots showed satisfactory fitting of probability of early HCC recurrence in the cohorts. Three risk strata were derived to have significantly different recurrence-free survival rates (low-risk: 80.4-85.4%; intermediate-risk: 59.7-64.8%; high-risk: 32.6-42.6%). In the prospective validation cohort, the swimming plot illustrated consistent outcomes with the beginning predictive score. CONCLUSION: The VERM-pre model accurately predicted the 1-year recurrence rates of HCC after LR with curative intent. The model was retrospectively and prospectively validated and then developed as the online tool.

A multicenter propensity score analysis of significance of hepatic resection type for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The impact of hepatic resection type on long-term oncological prognosis of patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been systematically investigated. We sought to determine risk factors, recurrence patterns, and survival outcomes after anatomical resection (AR) versus non-anatomical resection (NAR) for early-stage HCC. METHODS: From a prospectively collected multicenter database, consecutive patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for early-stage HCC were identified. Recurrence patterns, overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and risk factors were investigated in patients undergoing AR versus NAR using propensity score matching (PSM), subgroup analysis, and COX regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 3585 patients with early-stage HCC were enrolled, including 1287 and 2298 in the AR and NAR groups, respectively. After PSM, the OS and RFS of patients in the AR group were 58.8% and 42.7%, which were higher than those in the NAR group (52.2% and 30.6%, both p < 0.01). The benefits of AR were consistent across most subgroup analyses of OS and RFS. Multivariable COX regression analysis showed that AR was independently associated with better OS and RFS. Notably, although recurrence patterns were comparable, the risk factors for recurrence were not identical for AR versus NAR. Microvascular invasion and narrow resection margin were only associated with a higher recurrence rate after NAR. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that AR decreases the risk of tumor recurrence and improves OS and RFS in patients with early-stage HCC. AR should be adopted as long as such a surgical maneuver is feasible for initial treatment of early-stage HCC.

Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival and recurrence after hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced (BCLC stage B/C) hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Despite the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system discouraging hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, the procedure is still performed worldwide, particularly in Asia. This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence for these patients. METHODS: We analyzed patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma between 2010 and 2020 across 3 Chinese hospitals. The Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital cohort was used as the training cohort for the nomogram construction, and the Jilin First Hospital and Fujian Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital cohorts served as the external validation cohorts. Independent preoperative predictors for survival and recurrence were identified through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Predictive accuracy was measured using the concordance index and calibration curves. The predictive performance between nomograms and conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems was compared. RESULTS: A total of 1,328 patients met the inclusion criteria. The nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence were developed using 10 and 6 independent variables, respectively. Nomograms' concordance indices in the training cohort were 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.759-0.800) and 0.719 (95% confidence interval 0.697-0.742) for survival and recurrence, outperforming 4 conventional staging systems (P < .001). Nomograms accurately stratified risk into low, intermediate, and high subgroups. These results were validated well by 2 external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated nomograms predicting survival and recurrence for patients with intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, contradicting Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer surgical guidelines. These nomograms may facilitate clinicians to formulate personalized surgical decisions, estimate long-term prognosis, and strategize neoadjuvant/adjuvant anti-recurrence therapy.

Serum alpha-fetoprotein response as a preoperative prognostic indicator in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy: a multicenter retrospective study.

Background: This study evaluates the efficacy of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response as a surrogate marker for determining recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) who undergo salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimen. Methods: This multicenter retrospective study included 74 patients with uHCC and positive AFP (>20 ng/mL) at diagnosis, who underwent salvage hepatectomy after treatment with TKIs and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimens. The association between AFP response-defined as a ≥ 80% decrease in final AFP levels before salvage hepatectomy from diagnosis-and RFS post-hepatectomy was investigated. Results: AFP responders demonstrated significantly better postoperative RFS compared to non-responders (P<0.001). The median RFS was not reached for AFP responders, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates of 81.3% and 70.8%, respectively. In contrast, AFP non-responders had a median RFS of 7.43 months, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates at 37.1% and 37.1%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified AFP response as an independent predictor of RFS. Integrating AFP response with radiologic tumor response facilitated further stratification of patients into distinct risk categories: those with radiologic remission experienced the most favorable RFS, followed by patients with partial response/stable disease and AFP response, and the least favorable RFS among patients with partial response/stable disease but without AFP response. Sensitivity analyses further confirmed the association between AFP response and improved RFS across various cutoff values and in patients with AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL at diagnosis (all P<0.05). Conclusion: The "20-80" rule based on AFP response could be helpful for clinicians to preoperatively stratify the risk of patients undergoing salvage hepatectomy, enabling identification and management of those unlikely to benefit from this procedure.

Prognostic implications of preoperative, postoperative, and dynamic changes of alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma (γ)-carboxy prothrombin expression pattern for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection: a multicenter observational study.

Background: The utility of pre- and post-operative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma (γ)-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) expression patterns and their dynamic changes as predictors of the outcome of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has yet to be well elucidated. Methods: From a multicenter database, AFP and DCP data during the week prior to surgery and the first post-discharge outpatient visit (within 1-2 months after surgery) were collected from patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy. AFP-DCP expression patterns were categorized according to the number of positive tumor markers (AFP ≥ 20ng/mL, DCP ≥ 40mAU/mL), including double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive. Changes in the AFP-DCP expression patterns were delineated based on variations in the number of positive tumor markers when comparing pre- and post-operative patterns. Results: Preoperatively, 53 patients (8.3%), 337 patients (52.8%), and 248 patients (38.9%) exhibited double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive AFP-DCP expression patterns, respectively. Postoperatively, 463 patients (72.6%), 130 patients (20.4%), and 45 patients (7.0%) showed double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive AFP-DCP expression patterns, respectively. Survival analysis showed a progressive decrease in recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) as the number of postoperative positive tumor markers increased (both P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that postoperative AFP-DCP expression pattern, but not preoperative AFP-DCP expression pattern, was an independent risk factor for RFS and OS. Further analysis showed that for patients with positive preoperative markers, prognosis gradually improves as positive markers decrease postoperatively. In particular, when all postoperative markers turned negative, the prognosis was consistent with that of preoperative double-negative patients, regardless of the initial number of positive markers. Conclusions: AFP-DCP expression patterns, particularly postoperative patterns, serve as vital sources of information for prognostic evaluation following hepatectomy for HCC. Moreover, changes in AFP-DCP expression patterns from pre- to post-operation enable dynamic prognostic risk stratification postoperatively, aiding the development of individualized follow-up strategies.

Long-term outcomes following hepatectomy in patients with lean non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-associated hepatocellular carcinoma versus overweight and obese counterparts: A multicenter analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: With the rising prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as a significant etiology for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), lean NAFLD-HCC has emerged as a specific distinct subtype. This study sought to investigate long-term outcomes following curative-intent hepatectomy for early-stage NAFLD-HCC among lean patients compared with overweight and obese individuals. METHODS: A multicenter retrospective analysis was used to assess early-stage NAFLD-HCC patients undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy between 2009 and 2022. Patients were stratified by preoperative body mass index (BMI) into the lean (<23.0 kg/m2), overweight (23.0-27.4 kg/m2) and obese (≥27.5 kg/m2) groups. Study endpoints were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), which were compared among groups. RESULTS: Among 309 patients with NAFLD-HCC, 66 (21.3 %), 176 (57.0 %), and 67 (21.7 %) were lean, overweight, and obese, respectively. The three groups were similar relative to most liver, tumor, and surgery-related variables. Compared with overweight patients (71.3 % and 55.6 %), the lean individuals had a worse 5-year OS and RFS (55.4 % and 35.1 %, P = 0.017 and 0.002, respectively), which were comparable to obese patients (48.5 % and 38.2 %, P = 0.939 and 0.442, respectively). After adjustment for confounding factors, multivariable Cox-regression analysis identified that lean bodyweight was independently associated with decreased OS (hazard ratio: 1.69; 95 % confidence interval: 1.06-2.71; P = 0.029) and RFS (hazard ratio: 1.72; 95 % confidence interval: 1.17-2.52; P = 0.006) following curative-intent hepatectomy for early-stage NAFLD-HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with overweight patients, individuals with lean NAFLD-HCC had inferior long-term oncological survival after hepatectomy for early-stage NAFLD-HCC. These data highlight the need for examination of the distinct carcinogenic pathways of lean NAFLD-HCC and its potential consequences in HCC recurrence.