Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19.

Understanding the outbreak dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has important implications for successful containment and mitigation strategies. Recent studies suggest that the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a proxy for the number of asymptomatic cases, could be an order of magnitude larger than expected from the number of reported symptomatic cases. Knowing the precise prevalence and contagiousness of asymptomatic transmission is critical to estimate the overall dimension and pandemic potential of COVID-19. However, at this stage, the effect of the asymptomatic population, its size, and its outbreak dynamics remain largely unknown. Here we use reported symptomatic case data in conjunction with antibody seroprevalence studies, a mathematical epidemiology model, and a Bayesian framework to infer the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. Our model computes, in real time, the time-varying contact rate of the outbreak, and projects the temporal evolution and credible intervals of the effective reproduction number and the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and recovered populations. Our study quantifies the sensitivity of the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 to three parameters: the effective reproduction number, the ratio between the symptomatic and asymptomatic populations, and the infectious periods of both groups. For nine distinct locations, our model estimates the fraction of the population that has been infected and recovered by Jun 15, 2020 to 24.15% (95% CI: 20.48%-28.14%) for Heinsberg (NRW, Germany), 2.40% (95% CI: 2.09%-2.76%) for Ada County (ID, USA), 46.19% (95% CI: 45.81%-46.60%) for New York City (NY, USA), 11.26% (95% CI: 7.21%-16.03%) for Santa Clara County (CA, USA), 3.09% (95% CI: 2.27%-4.03%) for Denmark, 12.35% (95% CI: 10.03%-15.18%) for Geneva Canton (Switzerland), 5.24% (95% CI: 4.84%-5.70%) for the Netherlands, 1.53% (95% CI: 0.76%-2.62%) for Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), and 5.32% (95% CI: 4.77%-5.93%) for Belgium. Our method traces the initial outbreak date in Santa Clara County back to January 20, 2020 (95% CI: December 29, 2019-February 13, 2020). Our results could significantly change our understanding and management of the COVID-19 pandemic: A large asymptomatic population will make isolation, containment, and tracing of individual cases challenging. Instead, managing community transmission through increasing population awareness, promoting physical distancing, and encouraging behavioral changes could become more relevant.

Benchmarking physics-informed frameworks for data-driven hyperelasticity.

Data-driven methods have changed the way we understand and model materials. However, while providing unmatched flexibility, these methods have limitations such as reduced capacity to extrapolate, overfitting, and violation of physics constraints. Recently, frameworks that automatically satisfy these requirements have been proposed. Here we review, extend, and compare three promising data-driven methods: Constitutive Artificial Neural Networks (CANN), Input Convex Neural Networks (ICNN), and Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE). Our formulation expands the strain energy potentials in terms of sums of convex non-decreasing functions of invariants and linear combinations of these. The expansion of the energy is shared across all three methods and guarantees the automatic satisfaction of objectivity, material symmetries, and polyconvexity, essential within the context of hyperelasticity. To benchmark the methods, we train them against rubber and skin stress-strain data. All three approaches capture the data almost perfectly, without overfitting, and have some capacity to extrapolate. This is in contrast to unconstrained neural networks which fail to make physically meaningful predictions outside the training range. Interestingly, the methods find different energy functions even though the prediction on the stress data is nearly identical. The most notable differences are observed in the second derivatives, which could impact performance of numerical solvers. On the rich data used in these benchmarks, the models show the anticipated trade-off between number of parameters and accuracy. Overall, CANN, ICNN and NODE retain the flexibility and accuracy of other data-driven methods without compromising on the physics. These methods are ideal options to model arbitrary hyperelastic material behavior.

Automated model discovery for human brain using Constitutive Artificial Neural Networks.

The brain is our softest and most vulnerable organ, and understanding its physics is a challenging but significant task. Throughout the past decade, numerous competing models have emerged to characterize its response to mechanical loading. However, selecting the best constitutive model remains a heuristic process that strongly depends on user experience and personal preference. Here we challenge the conventional wisdom to first select a constitutive model and then fit its parameters to data. Instead, we propose a new strategy that simultaneously discovers both model and parameters. We integrate more than a century of knowledge in thermodynamics and state-of-the-art machine learning to build a Constitutive Artificial Neural Network that enables automated model discovery. Our design paradigm is to reverse engineer the network from a set of functional building blocks that are, by design, a generalization of popular constitutive models, including the neo Hookean, Blatz Ko, Mooney Rivlin, Demiray, Gent, and Holzapfel models. By constraining input, output, activation functions, and architecture, our network a priori satisfies thermodynamic consistency, objectivity, symmetry, and polyconvexity. We demonstrate that-out of more than 4000 models-our network autonomously discovers the model and parameters that best characterize the behavior of human gray and white matter under tension, compression, and shear. Importantly, our network weights translate naturally into physically meaningful parameters, such as shear moduli of 1.82kPa, 0.88kPa, 0.94kPa, and 0.54kPa for the cortex, basal ganglia, corona radiata, and corpus callosum. Our results suggest that Constitutive Artificial Neural Networks have the potential to induce a paradigm shift in soft tissue modeling, from user-defined model selection to automated model discovery. Our source code, data, and examples are available at https://github.com/LivingMatterLab/CANN. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Human brain is ultrasoft, difficult to test, and challenging to model. Numerous competing constitutive models exist, but selecting the best model remains a matter of personal preference. Here we automate the process of model selection. We formulate the problem of autonomous model discovery as a neural network and capitalize on the powerful optimizers in deep learning. However, rather than using a conventional neural network, we reverse engineer our own Constitutive Artificial Neural Network from a set of modular building blocks, which we rationalize from common constitutive models. When trained with tension, compression, and shear experiments of gray and white matter, our network simultaneously discovers both model and parameters that describes the data better than any existing invariant-based model. Our network could induce a paradigm shift from user-defined model selection to automated model discovery.

Automated model discovery for muscle using constitutive recurrent neural networks.

The stiffness of soft biological tissues not only depends on the applied deformation, but also on the deformation rate. To model this type of behavior, traditional approaches select a specific time-dependent constitutive model and fit its parameters to experimental data. Instead, a new trend now suggests a machine-learning based approach that simultaneously discovers both the best model and best parameters to explain given data. Recent studies have shown that feed-forward constitutive neural networks can robustly discover constitutive models and parameters for hyperelastic materials. However, feed-forward architectures fail to capture the history dependence of viscoelastic soft tissues. Here we combine a feed-forward constitutive neural network for the hyperelastic response and a recurrent neural network for the viscous response inspired by the theory of quasi-linear viscoelasticity. Our novel rheologically-informed network architecture discovers the time-independent initial stress using the feed-forward network and the time-dependent relaxation using the recurrent network. We train and test our combined network using unconfined compression relaxation experiments of passive skeletal muscle and compare our discovered model to a neo Hookean standard linear solid, to an advanced mechanics-based model, and to a vanilla recurrent neural network with no mechanics knowledge. We demonstrate that, for limited experimental data, our new constitutive recurrent neural network discovers models and parameters that satisfy basic physical principles and generalize well to unseen data. We discover a Mooney-Rivlin type two-term initial stored energy function that is linear in the first invariant I1 and quadratic in the second invariant I2 with stiffness parameters of 0.60 kPa and 0.55 kPa. We also discover a Prony-series type relaxation function with time constants of 0.362s, 2.54s, and 52.0s with coefficients of 0.89, 0.05, and 0.03. Our newly discovered model outperforms both the neo Hookean standard linear solid and the vanilla recurrent neural network in terms of prediction accuracy on unseen data. Our results suggest that constitutive recurrent neural networks can autonomously discover both model and parameters that best explain experimental data of soft viscoelastic tissues. Our source code, data, and examples are available at https://github.com/LivingMatterLab.

Predicting and understanding arterial elasticity from key microstructural features by bidirectional deep learning.

Microstructural features and mechanical properties are closely related in all soft biological tissues. Both yet exhibit considerable inter-individual differences and are affected by factors such as aging and disease and its progression. Histological analysis, modern in situ imaging, and biomechanical testing have deepened our understanding of these complex interrelations, yet two key questions remain: (1) Given the specific microstructure, can one predict the macroscopic mechanical properties without mechanical testing? (2) Can one quantify individual contributions of the different microstructural features to the macroscopic mechanical properties in an automated, systematic and largely unbiased way? Here we propose a bidirectional deep learning architecture to address these two questions. Our architecture uses data from standard histological analyses, two-photon microscopy and biaxial biomechanical testing. Its capabilities are demonstrated by predicting with high accuracy (R2=0.92) the evolving mechanical properties of the murine aorta during maturation and aging. Moreover, our architecture reveals that the extracellular matrix composition and organization are the most prominent factors governing the macroscopic mechanical properties of the tissues studied herein. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: We present a physics-informed machine learning architecture that can predict macroscopic mechanical properties of arterial tissue with high accuracy (R2=0.92) from the tissue microstructure (characterized by imaging data). For the first time, this architecture enables also a fully automatic and largely unbiased quantification of the relevance of different microstructural features (such as collagen volume fraction and fiber straightness) for the macroscopic mechanical properties. This approach opens up unprecedented ways to predictive mechanical modeling of soft biological tissues. Moreover, it provides quantitative insights into the relation between tissue microstructure and its macroscopic properties that promise to play an important role in future tissue engineering.

Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics.

The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here, we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows a maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of [Formula: see text] days. Our findings suggest that trends in local mobility allow us to forecast the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 for a window of two weeks and adjust local control strategies in real time.

Bayesian Physics-Based Modeling of Tau Propagation in Alzheimer's Disease.

Amyloid-ß and hyperphosphorylated tau protein are known drivers of neuropathology in Alzheimer's disease. Tau in particular spreads in the brains of patients following a spatiotemporal pattern that is highly sterotypical and correlated with subsequent neurodegeneration. Novel medical imaging techniques can now visualize the distribution of tau in the brain in vivo, allowing for new insights to the dynamics of this biomarker. Here we personalize a network diffusion model with global spreading and local production terms to longitudinal tau positron emission tomography data of 76 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We use Bayesian inference with a hierarchical prior structure to infer means and credible intervals for our model parameters on group and subject levels. Our results show that the group average protein production rate for amyloid positive subjects is significantly higher with 0.019±0.27/yr, than that for amyloid negative subjects with -0.143±0.21/yr (p = 0.0075). These results support the hypothesis that amyloid pathology drives tau pathology. The calibrated model could serve as a valuable clinical tool to identify optimal time points for follow-up scans and predict the timeline of disease progression.

Neural network surgery: Combining training with topology optimization.

With ever increasing computational capacities, neural networks become more and more proficient at solving complex tasks. However, picking a sufficiently good network topology usually relies on expert human knowledge. Neural architecture search aims to reduce the extent of expertise that is needed. Modern architecture search techniques often rely on immense computational power, or apply trained meta-controllers for decision making. We develop a framework for a genetic algorithm that is both computationally cheap and makes decisions based on mathematical criteria rather than trained parameters. It is a hybrid approach that fuses training and topology optimization together into one process. Structural modifications that are performed include adding or removing layers of neurons, with some re-training applied to make up for any incurred change in input-output behaviour. Our ansatz is tested on several benchmark datasets with limited computational overhead compared to training only the baseline. This algorithm can achieve a significant increase in accuracy (as compared to a fully trained baseline), rescue insufficient topologies that in their current state are only able to learn to a limited extent, and dynamically reduce network size without loss in achieved accuracy. On standard ML datasets, accuracy improvements compared to baseline performance can range from 20% for well performing starting topologies to more than 40% in case of insufficient baselines, or reduce network size by almost 15%.

Predictive constitutive modelling of arteries by deep learning.

The constitutive modelling of soft biological tissues has rapidly gained attention over the last 20 years. Current constitutive models can describe the mechanical properties of arterial tissue. Predicting these properties from microstructural information, however, remains an elusive goal. To address this challenge, we are introducing a novel hybrid modelling framework that combines advanced theoretical concepts with deep learning. It uses data from mechanical tests, histological analysis and images from second-harmonic generation. In this first proof of concept study, our hybrid modelling framework is trained with data from 27 tissue samples only. Even such a small amount of data is sufficient to be able to predict the stress-stretch curves of tissue samples with a median coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.97 from microstructural information, as long as one limits the scope to tissue samples whose mechanical properties remain in the range commonly encountered. This finding suggests that deep learning could have a transformative impact on the way we model the constitutive properties of soft biological tissues.

Are college campuses superspreaders? A data-driven modeling study.

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to present enormous challenges for colleges and universities and strategies for save reopening remain a topic of ongoing debate. Many institutions that reopened cautiously in the fall experienced a massive wave of infections and colleges were soon declared as the new hotspots of the pandemic. However, the precise effects of college outbreaks on their immediate neighborhood remain largely unknown. Here we show that the first two weeks of instruction present a high-risk period for campus outbreaks and that these outbreaks tend to spread into the neighboring communities. By integrating a classical mathematical epidemiology model and Bayesian learning, we learned the dynamic reproduction number for 30 colleges from their daily case reports. Of these 30 institutions, 14 displayed a spike of infections within the first two weeks of class, with peak seven-day incidences well above 1,000 per 100,000, an order of magnitude larger than the nation-wide peaks of 70 and 150 during the first and second waves of the pandemic. While most colleges were able to rapidly reduce the number of new infections, many failed to control the spread of the virus beyond their own campus: Within only two weeks, 17 campus outbreaks translated directly into peaks of infection within their home counties. These findings suggests that college campuses are at risk to develop an extreme incidence of COVID-19 and become superspreaders for neighboring communities. We anticipate that tight test-trace-quarantine strategies, flexible transition to online instruction, and-most importantly-compliance with local regulations will be critical to ensure a safe campus reopening after the winter break.

Effects of B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 on COVID-19 Dynamics: A Campus Reopening Study.

The timing and sequence of safe campus reopening has remained the most controversial topic in higher education since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of March 2020, almost all colleges and universities in the United States had transitioned to an all online education and many institutions have not yet fully reopened to date. For a residential campus like Stanford University, the major challenge of reopening is to estimate the number of incoming infectious students at the first day of class. Here we learn the number of incoming infectious students using Bayesian inference and perform a series of retrospective and projective simulations to quantify the risk of campus reopening. We create a physics-based probabilistic model to infer the local reproduction dynamics for each state and adopt a network SEIR model to simulate the return of all undergraduates, broken down by their year of enrollment and state of origin. From these returning student populations, we predict the outbreak dynamics throughout the spring, summer, fall, and winter quarters using the inferred reproduction dynamics of Santa Clara County. We compare three different scenarios: the true outbreak dynamics under the wild-type SARS-CoV-2, and the hypothetical outbreak dynamics under the new COVID-19 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 with 56% and 50% increased transmissibility. Our study reveals that even small changes in transmissibility can have an enormous impact on the overall case numbers. With no additional countermeasures, during the most affected quarter, the fall of 2020, there would have been 203 cases under baseline reproduction, compared to 4727 and 4256 cases for the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants. Our results suggest that population mixing presents an increased risk for local outbreaks, especially with new and more infectious variants emerging across the globe. Tight outbreak control through mandatory quarantine and test-trace-isolate strategies will be critical in successfully managing these local outbreak dynamics.

Unraveling the Local Relation Between Tissue Composition and Human Brain Mechanics Through Machine Learning.

The regional mechanical properties of brain tissue are not only key in the context of brain injury and its vulnerability towards mechanical loads, but also affect the behavior and functionality of brain cells. Due to the extremely soft nature of brain tissue, its mechanical characterization is challenging. The response to loading depends on length and time scales and is characterized by nonlinearity, compression-tension asymmetry, conditioning, and stress relaxation. In addition, the regional heterogeneity-both in mechanics and microstructure-complicates the comprehensive understanding of local tissue properties and its relation to the underlying microstructure. Here, we combine large-strain biomechanical tests with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and develop an extended type of constitutive artificial neural networks (CANNs) that can account for viscoelastic effects. We show that our viscoelastic constitutive artificial neural network is able to describe the tissue response in different brain regions and quantify the relevance of different cellular and extracellular components for time-independent (nonlinearity, compression-tension-asymmetry) and time-dependent (hysteresis, conditioning, stress relaxation) tissue mechanics, respectively. Our results suggest that the content of the extracellular matrix protein fibronectin is highly relevant for both the quasi-elastic behavior and viscoelastic effects of brain tissue. While the quasi-elastic response seems to be largely controlled by extracellular matrix proteins from the basement membrane, cellular components have a higher relevance for the viscoelastic response. Our findings advance our understanding of microstructure - mechanics relations in human brain tissue and are valuable to further advance predictive material models for finite element simulations or to design biomaterials for tissue engineering and 3D printing applications.

No pressure, no diamonds? - Static vs. dynamic compressive in-situ loading to evaluate human articular cartilage functionality by functional MRI.

Biomechanical Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of articular cartilage, i.e. its imaging under loading, is a promising diagnostic tool to assess the tissue's functionality in health and disease. This study aimed to assess the response to static and dynamic loading of histologically intact cartilage samples by functional MRI and pressure-controlled in-situ loading. To this end, 47 cartilage samples were obtained from the medial femoral condyles of total knee arthroplasties (from 24 patients), prepared to standard thickness, and placed in a standard knee joint in a pressure-controlled whole knee-joint compressive loading device. Cartilage samples' responses to static (i.e. constant), dynamic (i.e. alternating), and no loading, i.e. free-swelling conditions, were assessed before (δ0), and after 30 min (δ1) and 60 min (δ2) of loading using serial T1ρ maps acquired on a 3.0T clinical MRI scanner (Achieva, Philips). Alongside texture features, relative changes in T1ρ (Δ1, Δ2) were determined for the upper and lower sample halves and the entire sample, analyzed using appropriate statistical tests, and referenced to histological (Mankin scoring) and biomechanical reference measures (tangent stiffness). Histological, biomechanical, and T1ρ sample characteristics at δ0 were relatively homogenous in all samples. In response to loading, relative increases in T1ρ were strong and significant after dynamic loading (Δ1 = 10.3 ± 17.0%, Δ2 = 21.6 ± 21.8%, p = 0.002), while relative increases in T1ρ after static loading and in controls were moderate and not significant. Generally, texture features did not demonstrate clear loading-related associations underlying the spatial relationships of T1ρ. When realizing the clinical translation, this in-situ study suggests that serial T1ρ mapping is best combined with dynamic loading to assess cartilage functionality in humans based on advanced MRI techniques.

Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story.

A key strategy to prevent a local outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic is to restrict incoming travel. Once a region has successfully contained the disease, it becomes critical to decide when and how to reopen the borders. Here we explore the impact of border reopening for the example of Newfoundland and Labrador, a Canadian province that has enjoyed no new cases since late April, 2020. We combine a network epidemiology model with machine learning to infer parameters and predict the COVID-19 dynamics upon partial and total airport reopening, with perfect and imperfect quarantine conditions. Our study suggests that upon full reopening, every other day, a new COVID-19 case would enter the province. Under the current conditions, banning air travel from outside Canada is more efficient in managing the pandemic than fully reopening and quarantining 95% of the incoming population. Our study provides quantitative insights of the efficacy of travel restrictions and can inform political decision making in the controversy of reopening.

Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics.

. The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of 14.6 +/- 5.6 days. Our findings suggests that local mobility can serve as a quantitative metric to forecast future reproduction numbers and identify the stages of the pandemic when mobility and reproduction become decorrelated.

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions.

Throughout the past six months, no number has dominated the public media more persistently than the reproduction number of COVID-19. This powerful but simple concept is widely used by the public media, scientists, and political decision makers to explain and justify political strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we explore the effectiveness of political interventions using the reproduction number of COVID-19 across Europe. We propose a dynamic SEIR epidemiology model with a time-varying reproduction number, which we identify using machine learning. During the early outbreak, the basic reproduction number was 4.22+/-1.69, with maximum values of 6.33 and 5.88 in Germany and the Netherlands. By May 10, 2020, it dropped to 0.67+/-0.18, with minimum values of 0.37 and 0.28 in Hungary and Slovakia. We found a strong correlation between passenger air travel, driving, walking, and transit mobility and the effective reproduction number with a time delay of 17.24+/-2.00 days. Our new dynamic SEIR model provides the flexibility to simulate various outbreak control and exit strategies to inform political decision making and identify safe solutions in the benefit of global health.

Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story.

A key strategy to prevent a local outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic is to restrict incoming travel. Once a region has successfully contained the disease, it becomes critical to decide when and how to reopen the borders. Here we explore the impact of border reopening for the example of Newfoundland and Labrador, a Canadian province that has enjoyed no new cases since late April, 2020. We combine a network epidemiology model with machine learning to infer parameters and predict the COVID-19 dynamics upon partial and total airport reopening, with perfect and imperfect quarantine conditions. Our study suggests that upon full reopening, every other day, a new COVID-19 case would enter the province. Under the current conditions, banning air travel from outside Canada is more efficient in managing the pandemic than fully reopening and quarantining 95% of the incoming population. Our study provides quantitative insights of the efficacy of travel restrictions and can inform political decision making in the controversy of reopening.

The reproduction number of COVID-19 and its correlation with public health interventions.

Throughout the past six months, no number has dominated the public media more persistently than the reproduction number of COVID-19. This powerful but simple concept is widely used by the public media, scientists, and political decision makers to explain and justify political strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we explore the effectiveness of political interventions using the reproduction number of COVID-19 across Europe. We propose a dynamic SEIR epidemiology model with a time-varying reproduction number, which we identify using machine learning. During the early outbreak, the basic reproduction number was 4.22 ± 1.69, with maximum values of 6.33 and 5.88 in Germany and the Netherlands. By May 10, 2020, it dropped to 0.67 ± 0.18, with minimum values of 0.37 and 0.28 in Hungary and Slovakia. We found a strong correlation between passenger air travel, driving, walking, and transit mobility and the effective reproduction number with a time delay of 17.24 ± 2.00 days. Our new dynamic SEIR model provides the flexibility to simulate various outbreak control and exit strategies to inform political decision making and identify safe solutions in the benefit of global health.

Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe and the effect of travel restrictions.

For the first time in history, on March 17, 2020, the European Union closed all its external borders in an attempt to contain the spreading of the coronavirus 2019, COVID-19. Throughout two past months, governments around the world have implemented massive travel restrictions and border control to mitigate the outbreak of this global pandemic. However, the precise effects of travel restrictions on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 remain unknown. Here we combine a global network mobility model with a local epidemiology model to simulate and predict the outbreak dynamics and outbreak control of COVID-19 across Europe. We correlate our mobility model to passenger air travel statistics and calibrate our epidemiology model using the number of reported COVID-19 cases for each country. Our simulations show that mobility networks of air travel can predict the emerging global diffusion pattern of a pandemic at the early stages of the outbreak. Our results suggest that an unconstrained mobility would have significantly accelerated the spreading of COVID-19, especially in Central Europe, Spain, and France. Ultimately, our network epidemiology model can inform political decision making and help identify exit strategies from current travel restrictions and total lockdown.

Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States.

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, a global pandemic. In an unprecedented collective effort, massive amounts of data are now being collected worldwide to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of this pandemic on the health system and the global economy. However, the precise timeline of the disease, its transmissibility, and the effect of mitigation strategies remain incompletely understood. Here we integrate a global network model with a local epidemic SEIR model to quantify the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States. For the outbreak in China, in [Formula: see text] provinces, we found a latent period of 2.56 ± 0.72 days, a contact period of 1.47 ± 0.32 days, and an infectious period of 17.82 ± 2.95 days. We postulate that the latent and infectious periods are disease-specific, whereas the contact period is behavior-specific and can vary between different provinces, states, or countries. For the early stages of the outbreak in the United States, in [Formula: see text] states, we adopted the disease-specific values from China and found a contact period of 3.38 ± 0.69 days. Our network model predicts that-without the massive political mitigation strategies that are in place today-the United States would have faced a basic reproduction number of 5.30 ± 0.95 and a nationwide peak of the outbreak on May 10, 2020 with 3 million infections. Our results demonstrate how mathematical modeling can help estimate outbreak dynamics and provide decision guidelines for successful outbreak control. We anticipate that our model will become a valuable tool to estimate the potential of vaccination and quantify the effect of relaxing political measures including total lockdown, shelter in place, and travel restrictions for low-risk subgroups of the population or for the population as a whole.