Health system-scale language models are all-purpose prediction engines.

Physicians make critical time-constrained decisions every day. Clinical predictive models can help physicians and administrators make decisions by forecasting clinical and operational events. Existing structured data-based clinical predictive models have limited use in everyday practice owing to complexity in data processing, as well as model development and deployment1-3. Here we show that unstructured clinical notes from the electronic health record can enable the training of clinical language models, which can be used as all-purpose clinical predictive engines with low-resistance development and deployment. Our approach leverages recent advances in natural language processing4,5 to train a large language model for medical language (NYUTron) and subsequently fine-tune it across a wide range of clinical and operational predictive tasks. We evaluated our approach within our health system for five such tasks: 30-day all-cause readmission prediction, in-hospital mortality prediction, comorbidity index prediction, length of stay prediction, and insurance denial prediction. We show that NYUTron has an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.7-94.9%, with an improvement of 5.36-14.7% in the AUC compared with traditional models. We additionally demonstrate the benefits of pretraining with clinical text, the potential for increasing generalizability to different sites through fine-tuning and the full deployment of our system in a prospective, single-arm trial. These results show the potential for using clinical language models in medicine to read alongside physicians and provide guidance at the point of care.

Assessing superficial temporal artery-middle cerebral artery anastomosis patency using FLOW 800 hemodynamics.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the use of indocyanine green videoangiography with FLOW 800 hemodynamic parameters intraoperatively during superficial temporal artery-middle cerebral artery (STA-MCA) bypass surgery to predict patency prior to anastomosis performance. METHODS: A retrospective and exploratory data analysis was conducted using FLOW 800 software prior to anastomosis to assess four regions of interest (ROIs; proximal and distal recipients and adjacent and remote gyri) for four hemodynamic parameters (speed, delay, rise time, and time to peak). Medical records were used to classify patients into flow and no-flow groups based on immediate or perioperative anastomosis patency. Hemodynamic parameters were compared using univariate and multivariate analyses. Principal component analysis was used to identify high risk of no flow (HRnf) and low risk of no flow (LRnf) groups, correlated with prospective angiographic follow-ups. Machine learning models were fitted to predict patency using FLOW 800 features, and the a posteriori effect of complication risk of those features was computed. RESULTS: A total of 39 cases underwent STA-MCA bypass surgery with complete FLOW 800 data collection. Thirty-five cases demonstrated flow after anastomosis revascularization and were compared with 4 cases with no flow after revascularization. Proximal and distal recipient speeds were significantly different between the no-flow and flow groups (proximal: 238.3 ± 120.8 and 138.5 ± 93.6, respectively [p < 0.001]; distal: 241.0 ± 117.0 and 142.1 ± 103.8, respectively [p < 0.05]). Based on principal component analysis, the HRnf group (n = 10) was characterized by high-flow speed (> 75th percentile) in all ROIs, whereas the LRnf group (n = 10) had contrasting patterns. In prospective long-term follow-up, 6 of 9 cases in the HRnf group, including the original no-flow cases, had no or low flow, whereas 8 of 8 cases in the LRnf group maintained robust flow. Machine learning models predicted patency failure with a mean F1 score of 0.930 and consistently relied on proximal recipient speed as the most important feature. Computation of posterior likelihood showed a 95.29% chance of patients having long-term patency given a lower proximal speed. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that a high proximal speed measured in the recipient vessel prior to anastomosis can elevate the risk of perioperative no flow and long-term reduction of flow. With an increased dataset size, continued FLOW 800-based ROI metric analysis could be used to guide intraoperative anastomosis site selection prior to anastomosis and predict patency outcome.