Island biodiversity in peril: Anticipating a loss of mammals' functional diversity with future species extinctions.

Islands are biodiversity hotspots that host unique assemblages. However, a substantial proportion of island species are threatened and their long-term survival is uncertain. Identifying and preserving vulnerable species has become a priority, but it is also essential to combine this information with other facets of biodiversity like functional diversity, to understand how future extinctions might affect ecosystem stability and functioning. Focusing on mammals, we (i) assessed how much functional space would be lost if threatened species go extinct, (ii) determined the minimum number of extinctions that would cause a significant functional loss, (iii) identified the characteristics (e.g., biotic, climatic, geographic, or orographic) of the islands most vulnerable to future changes in the functional space, and (iv) quantified how much of that potential functional loss would be offset by introduced species. Using trait information for 1474 mammal species occurring in 318 islands worldwide, we built trait probability density functions to quantify changes in functional richness and functional redundancy in each island if the mammals categorized by IUCN as threatened disappeared. We found that the extinction of threatened mammals would reduce the functional space in 63% of the assessed islands, although these extinctions in general would cause a reduction of less than 15% of their overall functional space. Also, on most islands, the extinction of just a few species would be sufficient to cause a significant loss of functional diversity. The potential functional loss would be higher on small, isolated, and/or species-rich islands, and, in general, the functional space lost would not be offset by introduced species. Our results show that the preservation of native species and their ecological roles remains crucial for maintaining the current functioning of island ecosystems. Therefore, conservation measures considering functional diversity are imperative to safeguard the unique functional roles of threatened mammal species on islands.

Evolutionary history predicts the response of tree species to forest loss: A case study in peninsular Spain.

Evolutionary history can explain species resemblance to a large extent. Thus, if closely related species share combinations of traits that modulate their response to environmental changes, then phylogeny could predict species sensitivity to novel stressors such as increased levels of deforestation. To test this hypothesis, we used 66,949 plots (25-m-radius) of the Spanish National Forest Inventory and modelled the relationships between local (plot-level) stem density of 61 Holarctic tree species and forest canopy cover measured at local and landscape scales (concentric circles centred on the plots with radiuses of 1.6, 3.2 and 6.4 km, respectively). Then, we used the output model equations to estimate the probability of occurrence of the species as a function of forest canopy cover (i.e. response to forest loss), and quantified the phylogenetic signal in their responses using a molecular phylogeny. Most species showed a lower probability of occurrence when forest canopy cover in the plots (local scale) was low. However, the probability of occurrence of many species increased when forest canopy cover decreased across landscape scales. We detected a strong phylogenetic signal in species response to forest loss at local and small landscape (1.6 km) scales. However, phylogenetic signal was weak and non-significant at intermediate (3.2 km) and large (6.4 km) landscape scales. Our results suggest that phylogenetic information could be used to prioritize forested areas for conservation, since evolutionary history may largely determine species response to forest loss. As such, phylogenetically diverse forests might ensure contrasted responses to deforestation, and thus less abrupt reductions in the abundances of the constituent species.