The potential public health impact of adolescent 4CMenB vaccination on Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in England: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Diagnoses of gonorrhoea in England rose by 26% between 2018 and 2019. Recent evidence that a vaccine against meningococcal B disease currently offered to infants in the UK (4CMenB) could additionally protect (with 31% efficacy) against gonorrhoea has led to renewed hope for a vaccine. A Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial of 4CMenB vaccination against gonorrhoea in adults is currently underway. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the potential public health impact of adolescent gonorrhoea vaccination in England, considering different implementation strategies. METHODS: We developed a deterministic transmission-dynamic model of gonorrhoea infection among heterosexual 13-64-year-olds stratified by age, sex and sexual activity. We explored the impact of a National Immunisation Programme (NIP) among 14-year-olds for a vaccine with 31% efficacy, 6 years' duration of protection, and 85% uptake. We also explored how impact might change for varying efficacy (20-50%) and uptake (75-95%), the addition of a catch-up programme, the use of boosters, and varying duration of protection. RESULTS: An NIP against gonorrhoea could lead to 50,000 (95% credible interval, CrI 31,000-80,000) and 849,000 (95%CrI 476,000-1,568,000) gonorrhoea infections being averted over 10 and 70 years, respectively, in England, for a vaccine with 31% efficacy and 85% uptake. This is equivalent to 25% (95%CrI 17-33%) of heterosexual infections being averted over 70 years. Vaccine impact is predicted to increase over time and be greatest among 13-18-year-olds (39% of infections 95%CrI 31-49% averted) over 70 years. Varying vaccine efficacy and duration of protection had a noticeable effect on impact. Catch-up and booster vaccination increased the short- and long-term impact, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A partially-effective vaccine against gonorrhoea infection, delivered to 14-year-olds alongside the MenACWY vaccine, could have an important population impact on gonorrhoea. Catch-up and booster vaccination could be considered alongside cohort vaccination to increase impact.

Chemsex and diagnoses of syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia among men who have sex with men in the UK: a multivariable prediction model using causal inference methodology.

INTRODUCTION: In the last decade diagnoses of most STIs have risen among men who have sex with men (MSM). Although a significant proportion of this is likely due to increased STI screening, understanding the role of behavioural drivers remains critical. We measure the associations between stimulant use to enhance and prolong sexual experiences (chemsex) and bacterial STI diagnoses in UK MSM, individually considering HIV-diagnosed MSM, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users and other MSM. METHODS: We used the UK 2017-2018 European MSM Internet Survey data (n=9375). We constructed causal inference models using multivariable logistic regression, calculating adjusted OR (aOR) and 95% CI of the associations between participation in recent (≤12 months) exclusively dyadic or multipartner chemsex versus no chemsex and recent self-reported diagnoses of syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia. RESULTS: Among MSM with an HIV diagnosis, 25% of users indicated recent multipartner chemsex, vs 28% of PrEP users and 5% of other MSM. Adjusting for age, ethnicity, UK birth, cis-trans status, sexual identity, education, settlement size and relationship status, participation in recent multipartner chemsex versus no chemsex was associated with greater odds of recent syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia diagnosis. aORs for recent syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia diagnoses were 2.6 (95% CI 1.7 to 4.1), 3.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 5.8) and 2.9 (95% CI 1.9 to 4.3), respectively, in HIV-diagnosed MSM; 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.3), 2.9 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.2) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.8), respectively, in PrEP users; and 4.0 (95% CI 2.3 to 6.9), 2.7 (95% CI 1.9 to 3.8) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.4), respectively, in other MSM. Conversely, exclusively dyadic chemsex had no significant associations with bacterial STI diagnoses among HIV-diagnosed MSM, only gonorrhoea (aOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.7) among PrEP users and syphilis (aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4 to 5.6) among other MSM. DISCUSSION: Multipartner chemsex may drive the association between chemsex and bacterial STI diagnoses and thus should be the focus of future tailored chemsex interventions. Additionally, PrEP acceptability among MSM and particularly chemsex participants has generated an emergent group suitable for such interventions.

Herpes simplex virus: global infection prevalence and incidence estimates, 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To generate global and regional estimates for the prevalence and incidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 1 and type 2 infection for 2016. METHODS: To obtain data, we undertook a systematic review to identify studies up to August 2018. Adjustments were made to account for HSV test sensitivity and specificity. For each World Health Organization (WHO) region, we applied a constant incidence model to pooled prevalence by age and sex to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HSV types 1 and 2 infections. For HSV type 1, we apportioned infection by anatomical site using pooled estimates of the proportions that were oral and genital. FINDINGS: In 2016, an estimated 491.5 million people (95% uncertainty interval, UI: 430.4 million-610.6 million) were living with HSV type 2 infection, equivalent to 13.2% of the world's population aged 15-49 years. An estimated 3752.0 million people (95% UI: 3555.5 million-3854.6 million) had HSV type 1 infection at any site, equivalent to a global prevalence of 66.6% in 0-49-year-olds. Differing patterns were observed by age, sex and geographical region, with HSV type 2 prevalence being highest among women and in the WHO African Region. CONCLUSION: An estimated half a billion people had genital infection with HSV type 2 or type 1, and several billion had oral HSV type 1 infection. Millions of people may also be at higher risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), particularly women in the WHO African Region who have the highest HSV type 2 prevalence and exposure to HIV.

Agent-based modelling study of antimicrobial-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission in men who have sex with men: towards individualised diagnosis and treatment.

Background Antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) gonorrhoea is a global public health threat. Discriminatory point-of-care tests (POCT) to detect drug sensitivity are under development, enabling individualised resistance-guided therapy. METHODS: An individual-based dynamic transmission model of gonorrhoea infection in MSM living in London has been developed, incorporating ciprofloxacin-sensitive and resistant strains. The time-dependent sexual contact network is captured by periodically restructuring active connections to reflect the transience of contacts. Different strategies to improve treatment selection were explored, including discriminatory POCT and selecting partner treatment based on either the index case or partner susceptibility. Outcomes included population prevalence of gonorrhoea and drug dose counts. RESULTS: It is shown that using POCT to detect ciprofloxacin-sensitive infections could result in a large decrease in ceftriaxone doses (by 70% compared with the reference case in the simulations of this study). It also suggests that ceftriaxone use can be reduced with existing technologies, albeit to a lesser degree; either using index case sensitivity profiles to direct treatment of partners, or testing notified partners with strain discriminatory laboratory tests before treatment, reduced ceftriaxone use in our model (by 27% and 47% respectively). CONCLUSIONS: POCT to detect ciprofloxacin-sensitive gonorrhoea are likely to dramatically reduce reliance on ceftriaxone, but requires the implementation of new technology. In the meantime, the proportion of unnecessary ceftriaxone treatment by testing partners before treatment could be reduced significantly. Alternatively, index case sensitivity profiles could be used to select effective treatments for partners.

Correction: Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections and bacterial vaginosis among women in sub-Saharan Africa: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 18 HIV prevention studies.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002511.].

Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections and bacterial vaginosis among women in sub-Saharan Africa: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 18 HIV prevention studies.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence are essential for efforts to prevent and control STIs. Few large STI prevalence studies exist, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our primary objective was to estimate the prevalence of chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, syphilis, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), and bacterial vaginosis (BV) among women in sub-Saharan Africa by age, region, and population type. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed individual-level data from 18 HIV prevention studies (cohort studies and randomized controlled trials; conducted during 1993-2011), representing >37,000 women, that tested participants for ≥1 selected STIs or BV at baseline. We used a 2-stage meta-analysis to combine data. After calculating the proportion of participants with each infection and standard error by study, we used a random-effects model to obtain a summary mean prevalence of each infection and 95% confidence interval (CI) across ages, regions, and population types. Despite substantial study heterogeneity for some STIs/populations, several patterns emerged. Across the three primary region/population groups (South Africa community-based, Southern/Eastern Africa community-based, and Eastern Africa higher-risk), prevalence was higher among 15-24-year-old than 25-49-year-old women for all STIs except HSV-2. In general, higher-risk populations had greater prevalence of gonorrhea and syphilis than clinic/community-based populations. For chlamydia, prevalence among 15-24-year-olds was 10.3% (95% CI: 7.4%, 14.1%; I2 = 75.7%) among women specifically recruited from higher-risk settings for HIV in Eastern Africa and was 15.1% (95% CI: 12.7%, 17.8%; I2 = 82.3%) in South African clinic/community-based populations. Among clinic/community-based populations, prevalence was generally greater in South Africa than in Southern/Eastern Africa for most STIs; for gonorrhea, prevalence among 15-24-year-olds was 4.6% (95% CI: 3.3%, 6.4%; I2 = 82.8%) in South Africa and was 1.7% (95% CI: 1.2%, 2.6%; I2 = 55.2%) in Southern/Eastern Africa. Across the three primary region/population groups, HSV-2 and BV prevalence was high among 25-49-year-olds (ranging from 70% to 83% and 33% to 44%, respectively). The main study limitation is that the data are not from random samples of the target populations. CONCLUSIONS: Combining data from 18 HIV prevention studies, our findings highlight important features of STI/BV epidemiology among sub-Saharan African women. This methodology can be used where routine STI surveillance is limited and offers a new approach to obtaining critical information on STI and BV prevalence in LMICs.

Comparing the characteristics of users of an online service for STI self-sampling with clinic service users: a cross-sectional analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Online services for self-sampling at home could improve access to STI testing; however, little is known about those using this new modality of care. This study describes the characteristics of users of online services and compares them with users of clinic services. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected data on STI testing activity from online and clinic sexual health services in Lambeth and Southwark between 1January 2016 and 31March 2016. Activity was included for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, HIV and syphilis testing for residents of the boroughs aged 16 years and older. Logistic regression models were used to explore potential associations between type of service use with age group, gender, ethnic group, sexual orientation, positivity and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintiles. We used the same methods to explore potential associations between return of complete samples for testing with age group, gender, ethnic group, sexual orientation and IMD quintiles among online users. RESULTS: 6456 STI tests were carried out by residents in the boroughs. Of these, 3582 (55.5%) were performed using clinic services and 2874 (44.5%) using the online service. In multivariate analysis, online users were more likely than clinic users to be aged between 20 and 30 years, female, white British, homosexual or bisexual, test negative for chlamydia or gonorrhoea and live in less deprived areas. Of the individuals that ordered a kit from the online service, 72.5% returned sufficient samples. In multivariate analysis, returners were more likely than non-returners to be aged >20 years and white British. CONCLUSION: Nearly half (44.5%) of all basic STI testing was done online, although the characteristics of users of clinic and online services differed and positivity rates for those using the online service for testing were lower. Clinics remain an important point of access for some groups.

Web-Based Activity Within a Sexual Health Economy: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Regular testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is important to maintain sexual health. Self-sampling kits ordered online and delivered in the post may increase access, convenience, and cost-effectiveness. Sexual health economies may target limited resources more effectively by signposting users toward Web-based or face-to-face services according to clinical need. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper was to investigate the impact of two interventions on testing activity across a whole sexual health economy: (1) the introduction of open access Web-based STI testing services and (2) a clinic policy of triage and signpost online where users without symptoms who attended clinics for STI testing were supported to access the Web-based service instead. METHODS: Data on attendances at all specialist public sexual health providers in an inner-London area were collated into a single database. Each record included information on user demographics, service type accessed, and clinical activity provided, including test results. Clinical activity was categorized as a simple STI test (could be done in a clinic or online), a complex visit (requiring face-to-face consultation), or other. RESULTS: Introduction of Web-based services increased total testing activity across the whole sexual health economy by 18.47% (from 36,373 to 43,091 in the same 6-month period-2014-2015 and 2015-2016), suggesting unmet need for testing in the area. Triage and signposting shifted activity out of the clinic onto the Web-based service, with simple STI testing in the clinic decreasing from 16.90% (920/5443) to 12.25% (511/4172) of total activity, P<.001, and complex activity in the clinic increasing from 69.15% (3764/5443) to 74.86% (3123/4172) of total activity, P<.001. This intervention created a new population of online users with different demographic and clinical profiles from those who use Web-based services spontaneously. Some triage and signposted users (29.62%, 375/1266) did not complete the Web-based testing process, suggesting the potential for missed diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation shows that users can effectively be transitioned from face-to-face to Web-based services and that this introduces a new population to Web-based service use and changes the focus of clinic-based activity. Further development is underway to optimize the triage and signposting process to support test completion.

Impact of Opioid Substitution Therapy on Antiretroviral Therapy Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people who inject drugs (PWID) frequently encounter barriers accessing and remaining on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Some studies have suggested that opioid substitution therapy (OST) could facilitate PWID's engagement with HIV services. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of concurrent OST use on ART-related outcomes among HIV-infected PWID. METHODS: We searched Medline, PsycInfo, Embase, Global Health, Cochrane, Web of Science, and Social Policy and Practice databases for studies between 1996 to November 2014 documenting the impact of OST, compared to no OST, on ART outcomes. Outcomes considered were coverage and recruitment onto ART, adherence, viral suppression, attrition from ART, and mortality. Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects modeling, and heterogeneity assessed using Cochran Q test and I(2) statistic. RESULTS: We identified 4685 articles, and 32 studies conducted in North America, Europe, Indonesia, and China were included. OST was associated with a 69% increase in recruitment onto ART (hazard ratio [HR], 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-2.15), a 54% increase in ART coverage (odds ratio [OR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.17-2.03), a 2-fold increase in adherence (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.41-3.26), and a 23% decrease in the odds of attrition (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, .63-.95). OST was associated with a 45% increase in odds of viral suppression (OR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.21-1.73), but there was limited evidence from 6 studies for OST decreasing mortality for PWID on ART (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, .65-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the use of OST, and its integration with HIV services, to improve the HIV treatment and care continuum among HIV-infected PWID.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of chlamydia testing in Scotland: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia is the most common sexually transmitted bacterial infection in Scotland, and is associated with potentially serious reproductive outcomes, including pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and tubal factor infertility (TFI) in women. Chlamydia testing in Scotland is currently targeted towards symptomatic individuals, individuals at high risk of existing undetected infection, and young people. The cost-effectiveness of testing and treatment to prevent PID and TFI in Scotland is uncertain. METHODS: A compartmental deterministic dynamic model of chlamydia infection in 15-24 year olds in Scotland was developed. The model was used to estimate the impact of a change in testing strategy from baseline (16.8% overall testing coverage; 0.4 partners notified and tested/treated per treated positive index) on PID and TFI cases. Cost-effectiveness calculations informed by best-available estimates of the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to PID and TFI were also performed. RESULTS: Increasing overall testing coverage by 50% from baseline to 25.2% is estimated to result in 21% fewer cases in young women each year (PID: 703 fewer; TFI: 88 fewer). A 50% decrease to 8.4% would result in 20% more PID (669 additional) and TFI (84 additional) cases occurring annually. The cost per QALY gained of current testing activities compared to no testing is £40,034, which is above the £20,000-£30,000 cost-effectiveness threshold. However, calculations are hampered by lack of reliable data. Any increase in partner notification from baseline would be cost-effective (incremental cost per QALY gained for a partner notification efficacy of 1 compared to baseline: £5,119), and would increase the cost-effectiveness of current testing strategy compared to no testing, with threshold cost-effectiveness reached at a partner notification efficacy of 1.5. However, there is uncertainty in the extent to which partner notification is currently done, and hence the amount by which it could potentially be increased. CONCLUSIONS: Current chlamydia testing strategy in Scotland is not cost-effective under the conservative model assumptions applied. However, with better data enabling some of these assumptions to be relaxed, current coverage could be cost-effective. Meanwhile, increasing partner notification efficacy on its own would be a cost-effective way of preventing PID and TFI from current strategy.

Acute and long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in school-aged children in England: Study protocol for the joint analysis of the COVID-19 schools infection survey (SIS) and the COVID-19 mapping and mitigation in schools (CoMMinS) study.

BACKGROUND: The symptom profiles of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and long-COVID in children and young people (CYP), risk factors, and associated healthcare needs, are poorly defined. The Schools Infection Survey 1 (SIS-1) was a nationwide study of SARS-CoV-2 infection in primary and secondary schools in England during the 2020/21 school year. The Covid-19 Mapping and Mitigation in Schools (CoMMinS) study was conducted in schools in the Bristol area over a similar period. Both studies conducted testing to identify current and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and recorded symptoms and school attendance. These research data have been linked to routine electronic health record (EHR) data. AIMS: To better understand the short- and long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and their risk factors, in CYP. METHODS: Retrospective cohort and nested case-control analyses will be conducted for SIS-1 and CoMMinS data linked to EHR data for the association between (1) acute symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors; (2) SARS-CoV-2 infection and long-term effects on health: (a) persistent symptoms; (b) any new diagnosis; (c) a new prescription in primary care; (d) health service attendance; (e) a high rate of school absence. RESULTS: Our study will improve understanding of long-COVID in CYP by characterising the trajectory of long-COVID in CYP in terms of things like symptoms and diagnoses of conditions. The research will inform which groups of CYP are more likely to get acute- and long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and patterns of related healthcare-seeking behaviour, relevant for healthcare service planning. Digested information will be produced for affected families, doctors, schools, and the public, as appropriate. CONCLUSION: Linked SIS-1 and CoMMinS data represent a unique and rich resource for understanding the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on children's health, benefiting from enhanced SARS-CoV-2 testing and ability to assess a wide range of outcomes.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Europe: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.

Background: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a globally prevalent, life-long, sexually transmitted infection. This study characterized HSV-2 seroprevalence in Europe for various at-risk populations and proportions of HSV-2 detection in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and in genital herpes. Data on neonatal herpes and HSV-2's contribution to HIV transmission were also reviewed. Methods: Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings. The search was conducted in PubMed and Embase databases up to February 20, 2022. Any publication reporting data on the outcome measures was included. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted. Findings: 211 relevant reports were identified, including 12 overall incidence measures, 294 overall (813 stratified by factors such as age and sex) seroprevalence measures, 13 overall (15 stratified by sex) proportions of HSV-2 detection in clinically diagnosed GUD, and 70 overall (183 stratified by factors such as age and sex) proportions of HSV-2 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 12.4% (95% CI: 11.5-13.3%) among general populations, 27.8% (95% CI: 17.5-39.4%) among men who have sex with men, 46.0% (95% CI: 40.1-51.8%) among people living with HIV and people in HIV discordant couples, and 63.2% (95% CI: 55.5-70.6%) among female sex workers. Most measures showed heterogeneity in HSV-2 seroprevalence. The pooled mean seroprevalence among general populations increased with age and was 0.65-fold (95% CI: 0.58-0.74) lower in men than women. Seroprevalence decreased by 1% per calendar year. Pooled mean proportions of HSV-2 detection in GUD and in genital herpes were 22.0% (95% CI: 15.3-29.6%) and 66.0% (95% CI: 62.9-69.1%), respectively. HSV-2 detection in genital herpes cases was 1.21-fold (95% CI: 1.10-1.32) higher in men compared to women and decreased by 1% per calendar year. Incidence of neonatal herpes indicated an increasing trend. Interpretation: Although seroprevalence is declining, a significant proportion of Europe's population is infected with HSV-2. HSV-2 accounts for approximately one-fifth of GUD cases and two-thirds of genital herpes cases. Findings support the need to invest in HSV-2 vaccine development, and sexual and reproductive health services. Funding: Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008] and pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar supported this study.

INCIDENCE OF HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS KERATITIS AND OTHER OCULAR DISEASE: GLOBAL REVIEW AND ESTIMATES.

PURPOSE: We aimed to review available data on the incidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) keratitis and other HSV ocular disease and to estimate the global burden of HSV ocular disease. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase databases to October 2020 for studies reporting on the incidence of HSV ocular disease. Study quality was evaluated using a four-point checklist. Pooled estimates were applied to 2016 population data to estimate global HSV ocular disease burden. Numbers with uniocular vision impairment (any visual acuity <6/12) were estimated by applying published risks to case numbers. RESULTS: Fourteen studies had incidence data; seven met our quality criteria. In 2016, an estimated 1.7 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI 1.0-3.0) million people had HSV keratitis, based on a pooled incidence of 24.0 (95% CI 14.0-41.0; N = 2; I2 = 97.7%) per 100,000 person-years. The majority had epithelial keratitis (pooled incidence 16.1 per 100,000; 95% CI 11.6-22.3; N = 3; I2 = 92.6%). Available studies were few and limited to the USA and Europe. Data were even more limited for HSV uveitis and retinitis, although these conditions may collectively contribute a further >0.1 million cases. Based on global incidence, some 230,000 people may have newly acquired uniocular vision impairment associated with HSV keratitis in 2016. CONCLUSION: Over 1.8 million people may have herpetic eye disease annually. Preventing HSV infection could therefore have an important impact on eye health. Herpetic eye disease burden is likely to have been underestimated, as many settings outside of the USA and Europe have higher HSV-1 prevalence and poorer access to treatment.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.

BACKGROUND: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with a sizable disease burden that is highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in this region. METHODS: Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings up to August 23, 2020. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted. FINDINGS: From 218 relevant publications, 451 overall outcome measures and 869 stratified measures were extracted. Pooled incidence rates ranged between 2.4-19.4 per 100 person-years across populations. Pooled seroprevalence was lowest at 37.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.9-39.7%) in general populations and high in female sex workers and HIV-positive individuals at 62.5% (95% CI: 54.8-70.0%) and 71.3% (95% CI: 66.5-75.9%), respectively. In general populations, pooled seroprevalence increased steadily with age. Compared to women, men had a lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.67). Seroprevalence has decreased in recent decades with an ARR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year. Seroprevalence was highest in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pooled HSV-2 proportion in genital ulcer disease was 50.7% (95% CI: 44.7-56.8%) and in genital herpes it was 97.3% (95% CI: 84.4-100%). INTERPRETATION: Seroprevalence is declining by 2% per year, but a third of the population is infected. Age and geography play profound roles in HSV-2 epidemiology. Temporal declines and geographic distribution of HSV-2 seroprevalence mirror that of HIV prevalence, suggesting sexual risk behavior has been declining for three decades. HSV-2 is the etiological cause of half of genital ulcer disease and nearly all genital herpes cases with limited role for HSV-1. FUNDING: This work was supported by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar and by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008].

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model. SETTING: World Health Organization regions. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal). RESULTS: Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions. CONCLUSION: HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.

Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case. DESIGN: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths. SETTING: SW at a time considered early in the pandemic, where National Health Service authorities required evidence to guide localised planning and support decision-making. PARTICIPANTS: Publicly available data on patients with COVID-19. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The expected numbers of infected cases, deaths due to COVID-19 infection, patient occupancy of acute and IC beds and the reproduction ('R') number over time. RESULTS: SW model projections indicate that, as of 11 May 2020 (when 'lockdown' measures were eased), 5793 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2003 to 12 051) individuals were still infectious (0.10% of the total SW population, 95% CrI 0.04% to 0.22%), and a total of 189 048 (95% CrI 141 580 to 277 955) had been infected with the virus (either asymptomatically or symptomatically), but recovered, which is 3.4% (95% CrI 2.5% to 5.0%) of the SW population. The total number of patients in acute and IC beds in the SW on 11 May 2020 was predicted to be 701 (95% CrI 169 to 1543) and 110 (95% CrI 8 to 464), respectively. The R value in SW was predicted to be 2.6 (95% CrI 2.0 to 3.2) prior to any interventions, with social distancing reducing this to 2.3 (95% CrI 1.8 to 2.9) and lockdown/school closures further reducing the R value to 0.6 (95% CrI 0.5 to 0.7). CONCLUSIONS: The developed model has proved a valuable asset for regional healthcare services. The model will be used further in the SW as the pandemic evolves, and-as open-source software-is portable to healthcare systems in other geographies.

Estimating the contribution of key populations towards HIV transmission in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: In generalized epidemic settings, there is insufficient understanding of how the unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs of key populations (KPs), such as female sex workers (FSWs) and men who have sex with men (MSM), contribute to HIV transmission. In such settings, it is typically assumed that HIV transmission is driven by the general population. We estimated the contribution of commercial sex, sex between men, and other heterosexual partnerships to HIV transmission in South Africa (SA). METHODS: We developed the "Key-Pop Model"; a dynamic transmission model of HIV among FSWs, their clients, MSM, and the broader population in SA. The model was parameterized and calibrated using demographic, behavioural and epidemiological data from national household surveys and KP surveys. We estimated the contribution of commercial sex, sex between men and sex among heterosexual partnerships of different sub-groups to HIV transmission over 2010 to 2019. We also estimated the efficiency (HIV infections averted per person-year of intervention) and prevented fraction (% IA) over 10-years from scaling-up ART (to 81% coverage) in different sub-populations from 2020. RESULTS: Sex between FSWs and their paying clients, and between clients with their non-paying partners contributed 6.9% (95% credibility interval 4.5% to 9.3%) and 41.9% (35.1% to 53.2%) of new HIV infections in SA over 2010 to 2019 respectively. Sex between low-risk groups contributed 59.7% (47.6% to 68.5%), sex between men contributed 5.3% (2.3% to 14.1%) and sex between MSM and their female partners contributed 3.7% (1.6% to 9.8%). Going forward, the largest population-level impact on HIV transmission can be achieved from scaling up ART to clients of FSWs (% IA = 18.2% (14.0% to 24.4%) or low-risk individuals (% IA = 20.6% (14.7 to 27.5) over 2020 to 2030), with ART scale-up among KPs being most efficient. CONCLUSIONS: Clients of FSWs play a fundamental role in HIV transmission in SA. Addressing the HIV prevention and treatment needs of KPs in generalized HIV epidemics is central to a comprehensive HIV response.

Global and regional estimates of the contribution of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection to HIV incidence: a population attributable fraction analysis using published epidemiological data.

BACKGROUND: A 2017 systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 prospective studies found the adjusted risk of HIV acquisition to be at least tripled in individuals with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection. We aimed to assess the potential contribution of HSV-2 infection to HIV incidence, given an effect of HSV-2 on HIV acquisition. METHODS: We used a classic epidemiological formula to estimate the global and regional (WHO regional) population attributable fraction (PAF) and number of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 infection by age (15-24 years, 25-49 years, and 15-49 years), sex, and timing of HSV-2 infection (established vs recently acquired). Estimates were calculated by incorporating HSV-2 and HIV infection data with pooled relative risk (RR) estimates for the effect of HSV-2 infection on HIV acquisition from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Because HSV-2 and HIV have shared sexual and other risk factors, in addition to HSV-related biological factors that increase HIV risk, we only used RR estimates that were adjusted for potential confounders. FINDINGS: An estimated 420 000 (95% uncertainty interval 317 000-546 000; PAF 29·6% [22·9-37·1]) of 1·4 million sexually acquired incident HIV infections in individuals aged 15-49 years in 2016 were attributable to HSV-2 infection. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV was largest for the WHO African region (PAF 37·1% [28·7-46·3]), women (34·8% [23·5-45·0]), individuals aged 25-49 years (32·4% [25·4-40·2]), and established HSV-2 infection (26·8% [19·7-34·5]). INTERPRETATION: A large burden of HIV is likely to be attributable to HSV-2 infection, even if the effect of HSV-2 infection on HIV had been imperfectly measured in studies providing adjusted RR estimates, potentially because of residual confounding. The contribution is likely to be greatest in areas where HSV-2 is highly prevalent, particularly Africa. New preventive interventions against HSV-2 infection could not only improve the quality of life of millions of people by reducing the prevalence of herpetic genital ulcer disease, but could also have an additional, indirect effect on HIV transmission. FUNDING: WHO.

Online testing for sexually transmitted infections: A whole systems approach to predicting value.

BACKGROUND: Online testing for sexually transmitted infections has a lower unit cost than testing in clinical services and economic analysis has focused on the cost per test and cost per diagnosis in clinics and online. However, online services generate new demand for testing and shift activity between services, requiring system-level analysis to effectively predict cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Routinely collected, anonymised, retrospective data on sexual health service activity from all specialist services (clinic and online) within an inner London sexual health economy were collated and harmonised to generate a complete dataset of individual level clinic attendances. Clinic activity and diagnoses were coded using nationally standardised codes assigned by clinicians. Costs were taken from locally or regionally agreed sexual health tariffs. The introduction of online services changed patterns of testing. In an inner London sexual health economy, online STI testing increased total number of tests, the total cost of testing and total diagnoses while slightly reducing the average cost per diagnosis. Two years after the introduction of online services 37% of tests in the were provided online and total diagnoses increased. The positivity of online services is generally lower than that in clinics but varies between contexts. Where the positivity ratio between clinic and online is less than the cost ratio, online services will reduce cost per diagnosis. In this analysis, areas with different classifications as urban and rural had different clinic/online positivity ratios changing the cost effectiveness between areas. Even after the introduction of online services, simple STI testing activity continues in clinics and providers should consider online-first options where clinically appropriate. CONCLUSIONS: Online services for STI testing are not 'stand alone'. They change STI testing behaviour with impacts on all elements of the sexual health economy. Planning, development and monitoring of such services should reference the dynamic nature of these systems and the role of online services within them.

Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development.

Development of a vaccine against herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), a life-long sexually-transmitted infection (STI), would be a major step forward in improving global sexual and reproductive health. In this review, we identified published literature of dynamic mathematical models assessing the impact of either prophylactic or therapeutic HSV-2 vaccination at the population level. We compared each study's model structure and assumptions as well as predicted vaccination impact. We examined possible causes of heterogeneity across model predictions, key gaps, and the implications of these findings for future modelling efforts. Only eight modelling studies have assessed the potential public health impact of HSV-2 vaccination, with the majority focusing on impact of prophylactic vaccines. The studies showed that even an imperfect prophylactic HSV-2 vaccine could have an important public health impact on HSV-2 incidence, and could also impact HIV indirectly in high HIV prevalence settings. Therapeutic vaccines also may provide public health benefits, though they have been explored less extensively. However, there was substantial variation in predicted population-level impact for both types of vaccine, reflecting differences in assumptions between model scenarios. Importantly, many models did not account for heterogeneity in infection rates such as by age, sex and sexual activity. Future modelling work to inform decisions on HSV vaccine development and implementation should consider cost-effectiveness, account for additional HSV-2 sequelae such as neonatal transmission, and model greater heterogeneity in infection rates between individuals, more realistic vaccine deployment, and more thorough sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.