Interpreting measures of tuberculosis transmission: a case study on the Portuguese population.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains a high burden for Human society despite considerable investments in its control. Unique features in the history of infection and transmission dynamics of tuberculosis pose serious limitations on the direct interpretation of surveillance data and call for models that incorporate latent processes and simulate specific interventions. METHODS: A transmission model was adjusted to the dataset of active tuberculosis cases reported in Portugal between 2002 and 2009. We estimated key transmission parameters from the data (i.e. time to diagnosis, treatment length, default proportion, proportion of pulmonary TB cases). Using the adjusted model to the Portuguese case, we estimated the total burden of tuberculosis in Portugal. We further performed sensitivity analysis to heterogeneities in susceptibility to infection and exposure intensity. RESULTS: We calculated a mean time to diagnose of 2.81 months and treatment length of 8.80 months in Portugal. The proportion defaulting treatment was calculated as 0.04 and the proportion of pulmonary cases as 0.75. Using these values, we estimated a TB burden of 1.6 million infected persons, corresponding to more than 15% of the Portuguese population. We further described the sensitivity of these estimates to heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that the model reproduces well the observed dynamics of the Portuguese data, thus demonstrating its adequacy for devising control strategies for TB and predicting the effects of interventions.

Brain Transcriptomic Response to Social Eavesdropping in Zebrafish (Danio rerio).

Public information is widely available at low cost to animals living in social groups. For instance, bystanders may eavesdrop on signaling interactions between conspecifics and use it to adapt their subsequent behavior towards the observed individuals. This social eavesdropping ability is expected to require specialized mechanisms such as social attention, which selects social information available for learning. To begin exploring the genetic basis of social eavesdropping, we used a previously established attention paradigm in the lab to study the brain gene expression profile of male zebrafish (Danio rerio) in relation to the attention they paid towards conspecifics involved or not involved in agonistic interactions. Microarray gene chips were used to characterize their brain transcriptomes based on differential expression of single genes and gene sets. These analyses were complemented by promoter region-based techniques. Using data from both approaches, we further drafted protein interaction networks. Our results suggest that attentiveness towards conspecifics, whether interacting or not, activates pathways linked to neuronal plasticity and memory formation. The network analyses suggested that fos and jun are key players on this response, and that npas4a, nr4a1 and egr4 may also play an important role. Furthermore, specifically observing fighting interactions further triggered pathways associated to a change in the alertness status (dnajb5) and to other genes related to memory formation (btg2, npas4b), which suggests that the acquisition of eavesdropped information about social relationships activates specific processes on top of those already activated just by observing conspecifics.