Essen Risk Score in Prediction of Myocardial Infarction After Transient Ischemic Attack or Ischemic Stroke Without Prior Coronary Artery Disease.

Background and Purpose- More intensive secondary prevention with newer drugs may be cost-effective in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether some subgroups of patients who had a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke, but no prior CAD are at similar high risk of myocardial infarction as those with prior CAD remains unclear. We determined whether the Essen score identified a subset of TIA/stroke patients without known prior CAD who, nevertheless, had a high risk of myocardial infarction on current secondary prevention management. Methods- In a population-based cohort (Oxford Vascular Study) of consecutive TIA or ischemic stroke patients recruited from 2002 to 2014, 10-year actuarial risks of myocardial infarction and of recurrent ischemic stroke were determined by face-to-face follow-up in patients with and without prior CAD using Kaplan-Meier analyses. Predictive value of the Essen score was assessed with C statistic. Results- Of 2555 patients with TIA/stroke (13 070 patient-years of follow-up), 10-year risk of myocardial infarction in those without prior CAD (n=2017, 78.9%) ranged from 0.9% (95% CI, 0-1.9) at Essen score ≤1 to 29.8% (95% CI, 7.7-46.6) in those with a score ≥5 (C statistic =0.64 [95% CI, 0.57-0.71]; P<0.001). The score tended to be less predictive (difference: P=0.0460) for the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke (C statistic =0.57 [95% CI, 0.54-0.60]). Compared with patients with prior CAD (n=538, 21.1%), an Essen risk score of ≥4 (n=294, 11.5%) in those without prior CAD identified a subgroup at similar high 10-year risks of myocardial infarction (17.2% [95% CI, 6.9-26.3] versus 16.9% [95% CI, 11.5-22.0]) and of recurrent stroke (40.4% [95% CI, 26.7-51.6] versus 32.4% [95% CI, 25.2-38.8]). Conclusions- The Essen score is a simple clinical score to risk-stratify patients with TIA/stroke without prior CAD and to identify subsets who may be at sufficiently high risk of myocardial infarction and recurrent stroke to justify more intensive treatment or inclusion in trials.

Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Transient Ischemic Attack or Stroke and Symptomatic Vascular Disease in Multiple Arterial Beds.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cerebrovascular, coronary, and peripheral vascular disease have common underlying arterial pathology and risk factors, but the clinical significance of multiple-territory disease in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA)/ischemic stroke is unclear, particularly whether the number of clinically affected territories still predicts long-term outcome on current standard secondary prevention therapies. METHODS: In a population-based study of 92 728 individuals in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom (Oxford Vascular Study), we studied patients presenting with TIA/ischemic stroke (2002-2014) in relation to the number of other vascular beds (coronary, peripheral) affected by symptomatic (current or previous) disease. We compared the risk factor profile and long-term prognosis in patients with single- versus multiple-territory disease. RESULTS: Among 2554 patients with 10 679 patient-years of follow-up, 1842 (72.1%) had single- (TIA/stroke only), 608 (23.8%) double-, and 104 (4.1%) triple-territory symptomatic vascular disease. The number of affected vascular beds increased with the number of atherosclerotic risk factors (Ptrend<0.0001). Compared with patients with TIA/stroke only, those with multiple-territory disease had more hypertension (age/sex-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.76-4.27; P<0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 2.27-3.66; P<0.0001), hypercholesterolemia (OR, 4.67; 95% CI, 3.85-5.66; P<0.0001), and current or previous smoking (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.26-1.84; P<0.0001). Triple-territory disease was particularly strongly associated with hypercholesterolemia (OR, 6.80; 95% CI, 4.39-10.53; P<0.0001). Despite more intensive secondary prevention in patients with multiple-territory disease, the 5-year risk of vascular death increased steeply with the number of territories affected (17.2% versus 30.0% versus 42.9%; P<0.0001). Compared with patients with single-territory, patients with multiple-territory disease also had higher postacute long-term risks (90 days to 10 years) of recurrent ischemic stroke (age/sex-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.04-1.81; P=0.02) and nonstroke acute vascular events (hazard ratio, 3.06; 95% CI, 2.23-4.20; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Number of affected vascular beds appeared to be a simple clinical rule in identifying TIA/ischemic stroke patients who are at high long-term risk of nonstroke vascular events and vascular death.

Delirium risk stratification in consecutive unselected admissions to acute medicine: validation of a susceptibility score based on factors identified externally in pooled data for use at entry to the acute care pathway.

Background: recognition of prevalent delirium and prediction of incident delirium may be difficult at first assessment. We therefore aimed to validate a pragmatic delirium susceptibility (for any, prevalent and incident delirium) score for use in front-line clinical practice in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. Methods: consecutive patients aged ≥65 years over two 8-week periods (2010-12) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The delirium susceptibility score was the sum of weighted risk factors derived using pooled data from UK-NICE guidelines: age >80 = 2, cognitive impairment (cognitive score below cut-off/dementia) = 2, severe illness (systemic inflammatory response syndrome) = 1, infection = 1, visual impairment = 1. Score reliability was determined by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results: among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 years (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), AUC was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) for any delirium; 0.71 (0.64-0.79), for prevalent delirium; 0.81 (0.70-0.92), for incident delirium; odds ratios (ORs) for risk score 5-7 versus <2 were 17.9 (5.4-60.0), P < 0.0001 for any delirium, 8.1 (2.2-29.7), P = 0.002 for prevalent delirium, and 25.0 (3.0-208.9) P = 0.003 for incident delirium, with corresponding relative risks of 5.4, 4.7 and 13. Higher risk scores were associated with frailty markers, increased care needs and poor outcomes. Conclusions: the externally derived delirium susceptibility score reliably identified prevalent and incident delirium using clinical data routinely available at initial patient assessment and might therefore aid recognition of vulnerability in acute medical admissions early in the acute care pathway.

Delirium risk stratification in consecutive unselected admissions to acute medicine: validation of externally derived risk scores.

BACKGROUND: reliable delirium risk stratification will aid recognition, anticipation and prevention and will facilitate targeting of resources in clinical practice as well as identification of at-risk patients for research. Delirium risk scores have been derived for acute medicine, but none has been prospectively validated in external cohorts. We therefore aimed to determine the reliability of externally derived risk scores in a consecutive cohort of older acute medicine patients. METHODS: consecutive patients aged ≥65 over two 8-week periods (2010, 2012) were screened prospectively for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), and delirium was diagnosed using the DSM IV criteria. The reliability of existing delirium risk scores derived in acute medicine cohorts and simplified for use in routine clinical practice (USA, n = 2; Spain, n = 1; Indonesia, n = 1) was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Delirium was defined as prevalent (on admission), incident (occurring during admission) and any (prevalent + incident) delirium. RESULTS: among 308 consecutive patients aged ≥65 (mean age/SD = 81/8 years, 164 (54%) female), existing delirium risk scores had AUCs for delirium similar to those reported in their original internal validations ranging from 0.69 to 0.76 for any delirium and 0.73 to 0.83 for incident delirium. All scores performed better than chance but no one score was clearly superior. CONCLUSIONS: externally derived delirium risk scores performed well in our independent acute medicine population with reliability unaffected by simplification and might therefore facilitate targeting of multicomponent interventions in routine clinical practice.

Response of day-to-day home blood pressure variability by antihypertensive drug class after transient ischemic attack or nondisabling stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Visit-to-visit variability in systolic blood pressure (SBP) is associated with an increased risk of stroke and was reduced in randomized trials by calcium channel blockers and diuretics but not by renin-angiotensin system inhibitors. However, time of day effects could not be determined. Day-to-day variability on home BP readings predicts stroke risk and potentially offers a practical method of monitoring response to variability-directed treatment. METHODS: SBP mean, maximum, and variability (coefficient of variation=SD/mean) were determined in 500 consecutive transient ischemic attack or minor stroke patients on 1-month home BP monitoring (3 BPs, 3× daily). Hypertension was treated to a standard protocol. Differences in SBP variability from 3 to 10 days before to 8 to 15 days after starting or increasing calcium channel blockers/diuretics versus renin-angiotensin system inhibitors versus both were compared by general linear models, adjusted for risk factors and baseline BP. RESULTS: Among 288 eligible interventions, variability in SBP was reduced after increased treatment with calcium channel blockers/diuretics versus both versus renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (-4.0 versus 6.9 versus 7.8%; P=0.015), primarily because of effects on maximum SBP (-4.6 versus -1.0 versus -1.0%; P=0.001), with no differences in effect on mean SBP. Class differences were greatest for early-morning SBP variability (3.6 versus 17.0 versus 38.3; P=0.002) and maximum (-4.8 versus -2.0 versus -0.7; P=0.001), with no effect on midmorning (P=0.29), evening (P=0.65), or diurnal variability (P=0.92). CONCLUSIONS: After transient ischemic attack or minor stroke, calcium channel blockers and diuretics reduced variability and maximum home SBP, primarily because of effects on morning readings. Home BP readings enable monitoring of response to SBP variability-directed treatment in patients with recent cerebrovascular events.

Validation of the Montreal cognitive assessment versus mini-mental state examination against hypertension and hypertensive arteriopathy after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Lack of reduced cognitive impairment with blood pressure (BP) lowering in trials may reflect use of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), which is insensitive to mild cognitive impairment after cerebrovascular events compared with the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. We determined relationships between impairment on MMSE versus Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) with the major physiological determinant of vascular cognitive impairment: hypertension and hypertensive arteriopathy. METHODS: Cognitive impairment in consecutive patients 6 months after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke was defined as significant, mild, or none (MMSE<23, 23-26, ≥27; MoCA<20, 20-24, ≥25) and related to 20 premorbid systolic BP readings, home BP measurement (3 measurements, 3×daily for 1 month), and hypertensive arteriopathy (creatinine, stroke versus transient ischemic attack, leukoaraiosis) by ordinal regression. RESULTS: Of 463 patients, 45% versus 28% had at least mild cognitive impairment on the MoCA versus MMSE (P<0.001). Hypertensive arteriopathy was more strongly associated with cognitive impairment on the MoCA than MMSE (creatinine: odds ratio=3.99; 95% confidence interval, 2.06-7.73 versus 2.16, 1.08-4.33; event: 1.53, 1.06-2.19 versus 1.23, 0.81-1.85; leukoaraiosis: 2.09, 1.42-3.06 versus 1.34, 0.87-2.07). Premorbid and home BP measurement systolic BP were more strongly associated with impairment on vascular subdomains of the MoCA than MMSE (odds ratio/10 mm Hg: visuospatial 1.29 versus 1.05; attention 1.18 versus 1.07; language 1.22 versus 0.91; naming 1.07 versus 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: The stronger relationship between impairment on the MoCA with hypertensive arteriopathy, independent of age, indicates a greater sensitivity for vascular-origin cognitive impairment. Use of MoCA should improve sensitivity for cognitive impairment and treatment effects in future studies.

Impact of a system-wide multicomponent intervention on administrative diagnostic coding for delirium and other cognitive frailty syndromes: observational prospective study.

BACKGROUND: We determined the impact of a system-wide multicomponent intervention to improve recognition and documentation of cognitive frailty syndromes on hospital administrative coding for delirium. METHODS: A multicomponent intervention including introduction of structured patient assessment including cognitive/delirium screen, regular audit/feedback and educational seminars was undertaken (2012-17). Sensitivity and specificity of administrative International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) delirium codes for the gold standard of prospectively clinically diagnosed delirium were calculated in consecutive patients admitted to acute medicine over five 8-week cycles (2010-18). RESULTS: Among 1,281 consecutive unselected admissions to acute medicine overall (mean / standard deviation age = 70.0/19.2 years; n=615 (48.0%) male), 320 had clinical delirium diagnosis (n=220 delirium only; n=100 delirium on dementia). Sensitivity of delirium coding increased from 12.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.6-26.7) in 2010 to 60.2% (95% CI 50.1-69.7; ptrend<0.0001) in 2018 while specificity remained at >99% throughout. CONCLUSION: A multicomponent intervention increased sensitivity of hospital administrative diagnostic coding for delirium almost six-fold without increasing the false positive diagnosis rate.

Prognostic value of "tissue-based" definitions of TIA and minor stroke: Population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Since use of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) positivity in the "tissue-based" definition of stroke in patients with a clinical TIA is supported by the high associated 90-day risk of recurrent stroke, we aimed to determine long-term prognostic significance, stratified by etiologic subtype, and whether the same tissue-based distinction is predictive in minor strokes. METHODS: Consecutive eligible patients with TIA or minor stroke (NIH Stroke Scale [NIHSS] ≤3) in the population-based Oxford Vascular Study underwent brain MRI at baseline. Stroke risk on 10-year follow-up was stratified by NIHSS (0/1 vs 2/3) and Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification of the initial event. RESULTS: Among 1,033 patients (633 TIA; 400 minor stroke), 248 (24.0%) had acute lesions on DWI (13.9% of TIAs; 40.0% of minor strokes). A positive DWI was associated with an increased 10-year risk of recurrent ischemic stroke after an index TIA (hazard ratio [HR] 2.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-5.54, p = 0.009) or a stroke with NIHSS 0-1 (3.03, 1.29-7.08, p = 0.011), but not after a stroke with NIHSS 2-3 (0.70, 0.24-2.10, p = 0.53). Ischemic stroke risk after DWI-positive TIA was at least equivalent to that after DWI-negative stroke (1.81, 0.82-4.00, p = 0.14). Among all patients, DWI positivity was most predictive of 10-year risk after cryptogenic events (4.68, 1.70-12.92, p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: DWI positivity is associated with an increased long-term risk of recurrent stroke after TIA and minor stroke, supporting a tissue-based definition of minor stroke as well as TIA. Prognostic value is greatest after cryptogenic events.

Effect of coexisting vascular disease on long-term risk of recurrent events after TIA or stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether patients with TIA or ischemic stroke with coexisting cardiovascular disease (i.e., history of coronary or peripheral artery disease) are still at high risk of recurrent ischemic events despite current secondary prevention guidelines. METHODS: In a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK (Oxford Vascular Study), we studied consecutive patients with TIA or ischemic stroke for 2002-2014. Patients were treated according to current secondary prevention guidelines and we determined risks of coronary events, recurrent ischemic stroke, and major bleeding stratified by the presence of coexisting cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Among 2,555 patients (9,148 patient-years of follow-up), those (n = 640; 25.0%) with coexisting cardiovascular disease (449 coronary only; 103 peripheral only; 88 both) were at higher 10-year risk of coronary events than those without (22.8%, 95% confidence interval 17.4-27.9; vs 7.1%, 5.3-8.8; p < 0.001; age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.07, 2.24-4.21) and of recurrent ischemic stroke (31.5%, 25.1-37.4; vs 23.4%, 20.5-26.2; p = 0.0049; age- and sex-adjusted HR 1.23, 0.99-1.53), despite similar rates of use of antithrombotic and lipid-lowering medication. However, in patients with noncardioembolic TIA/stroke, risk of extracranial bleeds was also higher in those with coexisting cardiovascular disease, particularly in patients aged <75 years (8.1%, 2.8-13.0; vs 3.4%, 1.6-5.3; p = 0.0050; age- and sex-adjusted HR 2.71, 1.16-6.30), although risk of intracerebral hemorrhage was not increased (age- and sex-adjusted HR 0.36, 0.04-2.99). CONCLUSIONS: As in older studies, patients with TIA/stroke with coexisting cardiovascular disease remain at high risk of recurrent ischemic events despite current management. More intensive lipid-lowering might therefore be justified, but benefit from increased antithrombotic treatment might be offset by the higher risk of extracranial bleeding.

Antithrombotics in trauma: management strategies in the older patients.

The ageing population has resulted in a change in the demographics of trauma, and older adult trauma now accounts for a growing number of trauma admissions. The management of older adult trauma can be particularly challenging, and exhibits differences to that of the younger age groups affected by trauma. Frailty syndromes are closely related with falls, which are the leading cause of major trauma in older adults. Comorbid disease and antithrombotic use are more common in the older population. Physiological changes that occur with ageing can alter the expected clinical presentation of older persons after injury and their susceptibility to injury. Following major trauma, definitive control of hemorrhage remains essential for improving outcomes. In the initial assessment of an injured patient, it is important to consider whether the patient is taking anticoagulants or antiplatelets and if measures to promote hemostasis such as reversal are indicated. After hemostasis is achieved and bleeding has stopped, longer-term decisions to recommence antithrombotic agents can be challenging, especially in older people. In this review, we discuss one aspect of management for the older trauma patients in greater detail, that is, acute and longer-term management of antithrombotic therapy. As we consider the health needs of an ageing population, rise in elderly trauma and increasing use of antithrombotic therapy, the need for research in this area becomes more pressing to establish best practice and evidence-based care.