Landscape attributes governing local transmission of an endemic zoonosis: Rabies virus in domestic dogs.

Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in disease spread and persistence, but quantifying landscape influences and their scale dependence is challenging. Studies have focused on how environmental features or global transport networks influence pathogen invasion and spread, but their influence on local transmission dynamics that underpin the persistence of endemic diseases remains unexplored. Bayesian phylogeographic frameworks that incorporate spatial heterogeneities are promising tools for analysing linked epidemiological, environmental and genetic data. Here, we extend these methodological approaches to decipher the relative contribution and scale-dependent effects of landscape influences on the transmission of endemic rabies virus in Serengeti district, Tanzania (area ~4,900 km2 ). Utilizing detailed epidemiological data and 152 complete viral genomes collected between 2004 and 2013, we show that the localized presence of dogs but not their density is the most important determinant of diffusion, implying that culling will be ineffective for rabies control. Rivers and roads acted as barriers and facilitators to viral spread, respectively, and vaccination impeded diffusion despite variable annual coverage. Notably, we found that landscape effects were scale-dependent: rivers were barriers and roads facilitators on larger scales, whereas the distribution of dogs was important for rabies dispersal across multiple scales. This nuanced understanding of the spatial processes that underpin rabies transmission can be exploited for targeted control at the scale where it will have the greatest impact. Moreover, this research demonstrates how current phylogeographic frameworks can be adapted to improve our understanding of endemic disease dynamics at different spatial scales.

Reducing spatial heterogeneity in coverage improves the effectiveness of dog vaccination against rabies.

Vaccination programs are the mainstay of control for many infectious diseases. Heterogeneous coverage is hypothesised to reduce vaccination effectiveness, but this impact has not been quantified in real systems. We address this gap using fine-scale data from two decades of rabies contact tracing and dog vaccination campaigns in Serengeti district, Tanzania. Using generalised linear mixed models, we find that current local (village-level) dog rabies incidence decreases with increasing recent local vaccination coverage. However, current local incidence is most dependent on recent incidence, both locally and in the wider district, consistent with high population connectivity. Removing the masking effects of prior non-local incidence shows that, for the same average prior vaccination coverage beyond the focal village, more spatial variation increases local incidence. These effects led to outbreaks following years when vaccination campaigns missed many villages, whereas when heterogeneity in coverage was reduced, incidence declined to low levels (<0.4 cases/1,000 dogs annually and no human deaths), such that short vaccination lapses thereafter did not lead to resurgence. We inferred ongoing rabies incursions into the district, suggesting regional connectivity as an important source of residual transmission. Overall, we provide an empirical demonstration of how the same average vaccination coverage can lead to differing outcomes based on its spatial distribution, highlighting the importance of fine-scale monitoring in managing vaccination programs.

Evaluation of an iELISA for detection and quantification of rabies antibodies in domestic dog sera.

Many rabies endemic-countries have recognized rabies as a public health problem that can be eliminated. As a result, some countries have started implementing small-scale vaccination programs with the aim of scaling them up. Post-vaccination serological monitoring is crucial to assess the efficacy of these programs. The recommended serological tests, the rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test, and the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization (FAVN) are accurate; however, the procedures require considerable expertise and must be carried out in high containment facilities, which are often not available in rabies endemic countries. Given these constraints, enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) have been considered as alternative methods to neutralization tests. This is the first study to evaluate, under field conditions, the performance of the commercial rabies indirect-ELISA (iELISA), the PlateliaTM Rabies II kit ad usum Veterinarium kit, using sera from domestic dogs. Serum samples were collected from two groups of community dogs in northern Tanzania: i) dogs with no history of vaccination against rabies (n = 100) and ii) dogs vaccinated with the Nobivac Canine Rabies® vaccine (n = 101) four weeks previously. When compared to the gold standard FAVN test, the iELISA was found to be 99% specific and 98% sensitive and there was a significant correlation between the two tests (p < 0.001, r = 0.92). Given these findings, we conclude that the PlateliaTM Rabies II kit ad usum Veterinarium can be considered a valuable tool for the rapid assessment of vaccination status of animals in vaccination programs.

Testing novel facial recognition technology to identify dogs during vaccination campaigns.

A lack of methods to identify individual animals can be a barrier to zoonoses control. We developed and field-tested facial recognition technology for a mobile phone application to identify dogs, which we used to assess vaccination coverage against rabies in rural Tanzania. Dogs were vaccinated, registered using the application, and microchipped. During subsequent household visits to validate vaccination, dogs were registered using the application and their vaccination status determined by operators using the application to classify dogs as vaccinated (matched) or unvaccinated (unmatched), with microchips validating classifications. From 534 classified dogs (251 vaccinated, 283 unvaccinated), the application specificity was 98.9% and sensitivity 76.2%, with positive and negative predictive values of 98.4% and 82.8% respectively. The facial recognition algorithm correctly matched 249 (99.2%) vaccinated and microchipped dogs (true positives) and failed to match two (0.8%) vaccinated dogs (false negatives). Operators correctly identified 186 (74.1%) vaccinated dogs (true positives), and 280 (98.9%) unvaccinated dogs (true negatives), but incorrectly classified 58 (23.1%) vaccinated dogs as unmatched (false negatives). Reduced application sensitivity resulted from poor quality photos and light-associated color distortion. With development and operator training, this technology has potential to be a useful tool to identify dogs and support research and intervention programs.

Integrating a community-based continuous mass dog vaccination delivery strategy into the veterinary system of Tanzania: A process evaluation using normalization process theory.

Abstract: Sustained vaccination coverage of domestic dog populations can interrupt rabies transmission. However, challenges remain including low dog owner participation, high operational costs associated with current (centralized and annually delivered (pulse)) approaches and high dog population turnover. To address these challenges an alternative (community-based continuous mass dog vaccination (CBC-MDV)) approach was designed. We investigated the potential for successful normalization of CBC-MDV into routine practice within the context of local communities and the veterinary system of Tanzania. Methods: In a process evaluation of a pilot implementation of CBC-MDV, we conducted in-depth interviews with implementers and community leaders (n = 24), focus group discussion with implementers and community members (n = 12), and non-participant observation (n = 157 h) of delivery of the intervention components. We analyzed these data thematically drawing on the normalization process theory, to assess factors affecting implementation and integration. Main findings: Implementers and community members clearly understood the values and benefits of the CBC-MDV, regarding it as an improvement over the pulse strategy. They had a clear understanding of what was required to enact CBC-MDV and considered their own involvement to be legitimate. The approach fitted well into routine schedules of implementers and the context (infrastructure, skill sets and policy). Implementers and community members positively appraised CBC-MDV in terms of its perceived impact on rabies and recommended its use across the country. Implementers and community members further believed that vaccinating dogs free of charge was critical and made community mobilization easier. However, providing feedback to communities and involving them in evaluating outcomes of vaccination campaigns were reported to have not been done. Local politics was cited as a barrier to collaboration between implementers and community leaders. Conclusion: This work suggests that CBC-MDV has the potential to be integrated and sustained in the context of Tanzania. Involving communities in design, delivery and monitoring of CBC-MDV activities could contribute to improving and sustaining its outcomes.

Development, feasibility and potential effectiveness of community-based continuous mass dog vaccination delivery strategies: Lessons for optimization and replication.

OBJECTIVES: Dog vaccination can eliminate rabies in dogs, but annual delivery strategies do not sustain vaccination coverage between campaigns. We describe the development of a community-based continuous mass dog vaccination (CBC-MDV) approach designed to improve and maintain vaccination coverage in Tanzania and examine the feasibility of delivering this approach as well as lessons for its optimization. METHODS: We developed three delivery strategies of CBC-MDV and tested them against the current annual vaccination strategy following the UK Medical Research Council's guidance: i) developing an evidence-based theoretical framework of intervention pathways and ii) piloting to test feasibility and inform optimization. For our process evaluation of CBC-MDV we collected data using non-participant observations, meeting reports and implementation audits and in-depth interviews, as well as household surveys of vaccination coverage to assess potential effectiveness. We analyzed qualitative data thematically and quantitative data descriptively. RESULTS: The final design included delivery by veterinary teams supported by village-level one health champions. In terms of feasibility, we found that less than half of CBC-MDV's components were implemented as planned. Fidelity of delivery was influenced by the strategy design, implementer availability and appreciation of value intervention components, and local environmental and socioeconomic events (e.g. elections, funerals, school cycles). CBC-MDV activities decreased sharply after initial campaigns, partly due to lack of supervision. Community engagement and involvement was not strong. Nonetheless, the CBC-MDV approaches achieved vaccination coverage above the critical threshold (40%) all-year-round. CBC-MDV components such as identifying vaccinated dogs, which village members work as one health champions and how provision of continuous vaccination is implemented need further optimization prior to scale up. INTERPRETATION: CBC-MDV is feasible to deliver and can achieve good vaccination coverage. Community involvement in the development of CBC-MDV, to better tailor components to contextual situations, and improved supervision of activities are likely to improve vaccination coverage in future.

Development of Dog Vaccination Strategies to Maintain Herd Immunity against Rabies.

Human rabies can be prevented through mass dog vaccination campaigns; however, in rabies endemic countries, pulsed central point campaigns do not always achieve the recommended coverage of 70%. This study describes the development of a novel approach to sustain high coverage based on decentralized and continuous vaccination delivery. A rabies vaccination campaign was conducted across 12 wards in the Mara region, Tanzania to test this approach. Household surveys were used to obtain data on vaccination coverage as well as factors influencing dog vaccination. A total 17,571 dogs were vaccinated, 2654 using routine central point delivery and 14,917 dogs using one of three strategies of decentralized continuous vaccination. One month after the first vaccination campaign, coverage in areas receiving decentralized vaccinations was higher (64.1, 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) 62.1-66%) than in areas receiving pulsed vaccinations (35.9%, 95% CIs 32.6-39.5%). Follow-up surveys 10 months later showed that vaccination coverage in areas receiving decentralized vaccinations remained on average over 60% (60.7%, 95% CIs 58.5-62.8%) and much higher than in villages receiving pulsed vaccinations where coverage was on average 32.1% (95% CIs 28.8-35.6%). We conclude that decentralized continuous dog vaccination strategies have the potential to improve vaccination coverage and maintain herd immunity against rabies.

Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence.

How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.

Investigating the Efficacy of a Canine Rabies Vaccine Following Storage Outside of the Cold-Chain in a Passive Cooling Device.

Background: Thermostable vaccines greatly improved the reach and impact of large-scale programmes to eliminate infectious diseases such as smallpox, polio, and rinderpest. A study from 2015 demonstrated that the potency of the Nobivac® Rabies vaccine was not impacted following experimental storage at 30°C for 3 months. Whether the vaccine would remain efficacious following storage under more natural, fluctuating temperature conditions remains unknown. We carried out a randomised controlled non-inferiority trial to compare serological responses in dogs following vaccination with doses stored under cold chain conditions with those stored within a locally made Passive Cooling Device ("Zeepot") under fluctuating temperature conditions. Materials and Methods: Nobivac® Rabies vaccine was stored under either cold-chain conditions or within the Zeepot for 2 months. Daily ambient temperatures and temperatures within the Zeepot were recorded every 3 h. Following storage, 412 domestic dogs were randomly assigned to receive either cold-chain or Zeepot stored Nobivac® Rabies vaccine. Baseline and day 28-post vaccination blood samples were collected. Serological analysis using the Fluorescent Antibody Virus Neutralisation assay was carried out with a threshold of 0.5 IU/ml to determine seroconversion. In addition, the impact of dog Body Condition Score, sex, and age on seroconversion was examined. Results: The serological response of dogs vaccinated using Nobivac® Rabies vaccine stored within the Zeepot was not inferior to the response of dogs vaccinated using cold-chain stored vaccine (z = 1.1, df = 313, p-value = 0.25). Indeed, the 28-day post-vaccination group geometric mean titre was 1.8 and 2.0 IU/ml for cold-chain vs. non-cold-chain storage, respectively. Moreover, the percentage of dogs that seroconverted in each arm was almost identical (85%). There was a positive linear trend between Body Condition Score (O.R. 2.2, 95% CI: 1.1-5.1) and seroconversion, suggesting dogs of poor condition may not respond as expected to vaccination. Conclusions: Our study demonstrated the potency of Nobivac® Rabies vaccine is not impacted following storage under elevated fluctuating temperatures within a Zeepot. These results have potentially exciting applications for scaling up mass dog vaccination programmes in low-and-middle income countries, particularly for hard-to-reach populations with limited access to power and cold-chain vaccine storage.

Controlling Human Rabies: The Development of an Effective, Inexpensive and Locally Made Passive Cooling Device for Storing Thermotolerant Animal Rabies Vaccines.

Thermotolerant vaccines greatly improved the reach and impact of large-scale vaccination programs to eliminate diseases such as smallpox, polio and rinderpest. A recent study demonstrated that the potency of the Nobivac® Canine Rabies vaccine was not impacted following experimental storage at 30 °C for three months. We conducted a study to develop a passive cooling device (PCD) that could store thermotolerant vaccines under fluctuating subambient temperatures. Through a participatory process with local communities in Northern Tanzania, we developed innovative PCD designs for local manufacture. A series of field experiments were then carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of five PCDs for vaccine storage under varying climatic conditions. Following iterative improvement, a final prototype "Zeepot Clay" was developed at the cost of US$11 per unit. During a further field-testing phase over a 12-month period, the internal temperature of the device remained below 26 °C, despite ambient temperatures exceeding 42 °C. Our study thus demonstrated that locally designed PCDs have utility for storing thermotolerant rabies vaccines at subambient temperatures. These results have application for the scaling up of mass dog vaccination programs in low-and-middle income countries, particularly for hard-to-reach populations with limited access to power and cold-chain vaccine storage.

Rapid in-country sequencing of whole virus genomes to inform rabies elimination programmes.

Genomic surveillance is an important aspect of contemporary disease management but has yet to be used routinely to monitor endemic disease transmission and control in low- and middle-income countries. Rabies is an almost invariably fatal viral disease that causes a large public health and economic burden in Asia and Africa, despite being entirely vaccine preventable. With policy efforts now directed towards achieving a global goal of zero dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030, establishing effective surveillance tools is critical. Genomic data can provide important and unique insights into rabies spread and persistence that can direct control efforts. However, capacity for genomic research in low- and middle-income countries is held back by limited laboratory infrastructure, cost, supply chains and other logistical challenges. Here we present and validate an end-to-end workflow to facilitate affordable whole genome sequencing for rabies surveillance utilising nanopore technology. We used this workflow in Kenya, Tanzania and the Philippines to generate rabies virus genomes in two to three days, reducing costs to approximately £60 per genome. This is over half the cost of metagenomic sequencing previously conducted for Tanzanian samples, which involved exporting samples to the UK and a three- to six-month lag time. Ongoing optimization of workflows are likely to reduce these costs further. We also present tools to support routine whole genome sequencing and interpretation for genomic surveillance. Moreover, combined with training workshops to empower scientists in-country, we show that local sequencing capacity can be readily established and sustainable, negating the common misperception that cutting-edge genomic research can only be conducted in high resource laboratories. More generally, we argue that the capacity to harness genomic data is a game-changer for endemic disease surveillance and should precipitate a new wave of researchers from low- and middle-income countries.

Correction: The Economic Impact of Malignant Catarrhal Fever on Pastoralist Livelihoods.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0116059.].

Waves of endemic foot-and-mouth disease in eastern Africa suggest feasibility of proactive vaccination approaches.

Livestock production in Africa is key to national economies, food security and rural livelihoods, and > 85% of livestock keepers live in extreme poverty. With poverty elimination central to the Sustainable Development Goals, livestock keepers are therefore critically important. Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious livestock disease widespread in Africa that contributes to this poverty. Despite its US$2.3 billion impact, control of the disease is not prioritized: standard vaccination regimens are too costly, its impact on the poorest is underestimated, and its epidemiology is too weakly understood. Our integrated analysis in Tanzania shows that the disease is of high concern, reduces household budgets for human health, and has major impacts on milk production and draft power for crop production. Critically, foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in cattle are driven by livestock-related factors with a pattern of changing serotype dominance over time. Contrary to findings in southern Africa, we find no evidence of frequent infection from wildlife, with outbreaks in cattle sweeping slowly across the region through a sequence of dominant serotypes. This regularity suggests that timely identification of the epidemic serotype could allow proactive vaccination ahead of the wave of infection, mitigating impacts, and our preliminary matching work has identified potential vaccine candidates. This strategy is more realistic than wildlife-livestock separation or conventional foot-and-mouth disease vaccination approaches. Overall, we provide strong evidence for the feasibility of coordinated foot-and-mouth disease control as part of livestock development policies in eastern Africa, and our integrated socioeconomic, epidemiological, laboratory and modelling approach provides a framework for the study of other disease systems.

Comparing Methods of Assessing Dog Rabies Vaccination Coverage in Rural and Urban Communities in Tanzania.

Rabies can be eliminated by achieving comprehensive coverage of 70% of domestic dogs during annual mass vaccination campaigns. Estimates of vaccination coverage are, therefore, required to evaluate and manage mass dog vaccination programs; however, there is no specific guidance for the most accurate and efficient methods for estimating coverage in different settings. Here, we compare post-vaccination transects, school-based surveys, and household surveys across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania and Pemba island covering rural, urban, coastal and inland settings, and a range of different livelihoods and religious backgrounds. These approaches were explored in detail in a single district in northwest Tanzania (Serengeti), where their performance was compared with a complete dog population census that also recorded dog vaccination status. Post-vaccination transects involved counting marked (vaccinated) and unmarked (unvaccinated) dogs immediately after campaigns in 2,155 villages (24,721 dogs counted). School-based surveys were administered to 8,587 primary school pupils each representing a unique household, in 119 randomly selected schools approximately 2 months after campaigns. Household surveys were conducted in 160 randomly selected villages (4,488 households) in July/August 2011. Costs to implement these coverage assessments were $12.01, $66.12, and $155.70 per village for post-vaccination transects, school-based, and household surveys, respectively. Simulations were performed to assess the effect of sampling on the precision of coverage estimation. The sampling effort required to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage from household surveys is generally very high and probably prohibitively expensive for routine monitoring across large areas, particularly in communities with high human to dog ratios. School-based surveys partially overcame sampling constraints, however, were also costly to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage. Post-vaccination transects provided precise and timely estimates of community-level coverage that could be used to troubleshoot the performance of campaigns across large areas. However, transects typically overestimated coverage by around 10%, which therefore needs consideration when evaluating the impacts of campaigns. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these different methods and make recommendations for how vaccination campaigns can be better monitored and managed at different stages of rabies control and elimination programs.

The efficacy of alcelaphine herpesvirus-1 (AlHV-1) immunization with the adjuvants Emulsigen® and the monomeric TLR5 ligand FliC in zebu cattle against AlHV-1 malignant catarrhal fever induced by experimental virus challenge.

Malignant catarrhal fever (MCF) is a fatal disease of cattle that, in East Africa, follows contact with wildebeest excreting alcelaphine herpesvirus 1 (AlHV-1). Recently an attenuated vaccine (atAlHV-1) was tested under experimental challenge on Friesian-Holstein (FH) cattle and gave a vaccine efficacy (VE) of approximately 90%. However testing under field conditions on an East African breed, the shorthorn zebu cross (SZC), gave a VE of 56% suggesting that FH and SZC cattle may respond differently to the vaccine. To investigate, a challenge trial was carried out using SZC. Additionally three adjuvant combinations were tested: (i) Emulsigen®, (ii) bacterial flagellin (FliC) and (iii) Emulsigen®+bacterial flagellin. We report 100% seroconversion in all immunized cattle. The group inoculated with atAlHV-1+Emulsigen® had significantly higher antibody titres than groups inoculated with FliC, the smallest number of animals that became infected and the fewest fatalities, suggesting this was the most effective combination. A larger study is required to more accurately determine the protective effect of this regime in SZC. There was an apparent inhibition of the antibody response in cattle inoculated with atAlHV-1+FliC, suggesting FliC might induce an immune suppressive mechanism. The VE in SZC (50-60%) was less than that in FH (80-90%). We speculate that this might be due to increased risk of disease in vaccinated SZC (suggesting that the vaccine may be less effective at stimulating an appropriate immune response in this breed) and/or increased survival in unvaccinated SZC (suggesting that these cattle may have a degree of prior immunity against infection with AlHV-1).

The economic impact of malignant catarrhal fever on pastoralist livelihoods.

This study is the first to partially quantify the potential economic benefits that a vaccine, effective at protecting cattle against malignant catarrhal fever (MCF), could accrue to pastoralists living in East Africa. The benefits would result from the removal of household resource and management costs that are traditionally incurred avoiding the disease. MCF, a fatal disease of cattle caused by a virus transmitted from wildebeest calves, has plagued Maasai communities in East Africa for generations. The threat of the disease forces the Maasai to move cattle to less productive grazing areas to avoid wildebeest during calving season when forage quality is critical. To assess the management and resource costs associated with moving, we used household survey data. To estimate the costs associated with changes in livestock body condition that result from being herded away from wildebeest calving grounds, we exploited an ongoing MCF vaccine field trial and we used a hedonic price regression, a statistical model that allows estimation of the marginal contribution of a good's attributes to its market price. We found that 90 percent of households move, on average, 82 percent of all cattle away from home to avoid MCF. In doing so, a herd's productive contributions to the household was reduced, with 64 percent of milk being unavailable for sale or consumption by the family members remaining at the boma (the children, women, and the elderly). In contrast cattle that remained on the wildebeest calving grounds during the calving season (and survived MCF) remained fully productive to the family and gained body condition compared to cattle that moved away. This gain was, however, short-lived. We estimated the market value of these condition gains and losses using hedonic regression. The value of a vaccine for MCF is the removal of the costs incurred in avoiding the disease.

Alcelaphine Herpesvirus-1 (Malignant Catarrhal Fever Virus) in Wildebeest Placenta: Genetic Variation of ORF50 and A9.5 Alleles.

Alcelaphine herpesvirus-1 (AlHV-1), a causative agent of malignant catarrhal fever in cattle, was detected in wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) placenta tissue for the first time. Although viral load was low, the finding of viral DNA in over 50% of 94 samples tested lends support to the possibility that placental tissue could play a role in disease transmission and that wildebeest calves are infected in utero. Two viral loci were sequenced to examine variation among virus samples obtained from wildebeest and cattle: the ORF50 gene, encoding the lytic cycle transactivator protein, and the A9.5 gene, encoding a novel polymorphic viral glycoprotein. ORF50 was well conserved with six newly discovered alleles differing at only one or two base positions. In contrast, while only three new A9.5 alleles were discovered, these differed by up to 13% at the nucleotide level and up to 20% at the amino acid level. Structural homology searching performed with the additional A9.5 sequences determined in this study adds power to recent analysis identifying the four-helix bundle cytokine interleukin-4 (IL4) as the major homologue. The majority of MCF virus samples obtained from Tanzanian cattle and wildebeest encoded A9.5 polypeptides identical to the previously characterized A9.5 allele present in the laboratory maintained AlHV-1 C500 strain. This supports the view that AlHV-1 C500 is suitable for the development of a vaccine for wildebeest-associated MCF.