Genetic and functional insights into the fractal structure of the heart.

The inner surfaces of the human heart are covered by a complex network of muscular strands that is thought to be a remnant of embryonic development1,2. The function of these trabeculae in adults and their genetic architecture are unknown. Here we performed a genome-wide association study to investigate image-derived phenotypes of trabeculae using the fractal analysis of trabecular morphology in 18,096 participants of the UK Biobank. We identified 16 significant loci that contain genes associated with haemodynamic phenotypes and regulation of cytoskeletal arborization3,4. Using biomechanical simulations and observational data from human participants, we demonstrate that trabecular morphology is an important determinant of cardiac performance. Through genetic association studies with cardiac disease phenotypes and Mendelian randomization, we find a causal relationship between trabecular morphology and risk of cardiovascular disease. These findings suggest a previously unknown role for myocardial trabeculae in the function of the adult heart, identify conserved pathways that regulate structural complexity and reveal the influence of the myocardial trabeculae on susceptibility to cardiovascular disease.

Coupled myovascular expansion directs cardiac growth and regeneration.

Heart regeneration requires multiple cell types to enable cardiomyocyte (CM) proliferation. How these cells interact to create growth niches is unclear. Here, we profile proliferation kinetics of cardiac endothelial cells (CECs) and CMs in the neonatal mouse heart and find that they are spatiotemporally coupled. We show that coupled myovascular expansion during cardiac growth or regeneration is dependent upon VEGF-VEGFR2 signaling, as genetic deletion of Vegfr2 from CECs or inhibition of VEGFA abrogates both CEC and CM proliferation. Repair of cryoinjury displays poor spatial coupling of CEC and CM proliferation. Boosting CEC density after cryoinjury with virus encoding Vegfa enhances regeneration. Using Mendelian randomization, we demonstrate that circulating VEGFA levels are positively linked with human myocardial mass, suggesting that Vegfa can stimulate human cardiac growth. Our work demonstrates the importance of coupled CEC and CM expansion and reveals a myovascular niche that may be therapeutically targeted for heart regeneration.

Gender and contemporary risk of adverse events in atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The role of gender in decision-making for oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. METHODS: The population cohort study used electronic healthcare records of 16 587 749 patients from UK primary care (2005-2020). Primary (composite of all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke, or arterial thromboembolism) and secondary outcomes were analysed using Cox hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for age, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities. RESULTS: 78 852 patients were included with AF, aged 40-75 years, no prior stroke, and no prescription of oral anticoagulants. 28 590 (36.3%) were women, and 50 262 (63.7%) men. Median age was 65.7 years (interquartile range 58.5-70.9), with women being older and having other differences in comorbidities. During a total follow-up of 431 086 patient-years, women had a lower adjusted primary outcome rate with HR 0.89 vs. men (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.92; P < .001) and HR 0.87 after censoring for oral anticoagulation (95% CI 0.83-0.91; P < .001). This was driven by lower mortality in women (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.89; P < .001). No difference was identified between women and men for the secondary outcomes of ischaemic stroke or arterial thromboembolism (adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.94-1.07; P = .87), any stroke or any thromboembolism (adjusted HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.96-1.07; P = .58), and incident vascular dementia (adjusted HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.97-1.32; P = .11). Clinical risk scores were only modest predictors of outcomes, with CHA2DS2-VA (ignoring gender) superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for primary outcomes in this population (receiver operating characteristic curve area 0.651 vs. 0.639; P < .001) and no interaction with gender (P = .45). CONCLUSIONS: Removal of gender from clinical risk scoring could simplify the approach to which patients with AF should be offered oral anticoagulation.

The impact of fatty acids biosynthesis on the risk of cardiovascular diseases in Europeans and East Asians: a Mendelian randomization study.

Despite early interest, the evidence linking fatty acids to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains controversial. We used Mendelian randomization to explore the involvement of polyunsaturated (PUFA) and monounsaturated (MUFA) fatty acids biosynthesis in the etiology of several CVD endpoints in up to 1 153 768 European (maximum 123 668 cases) and 212 453 East Asian (maximum 29 319 cases) ancestry individuals. As instruments, we selected single nucleotide polymorphisms mapping to genes with well-known roles in PUFA (i.e. FADS1/2 and ELOVL2) and MUFA (i.e. SCD) biosynthesis. Our findings suggest that higher PUFA biosynthesis rate (proxied by rs174576 near FADS1/2) is related to higher odds of multiple CVDs, particularly ischemic stroke, peripheral artery disease and venous thromboembolism, whereas higher MUFA biosynthesis rate (proxied by rs603424 near SCD) is related to lower odds of coronary artery disease among Europeans. Results were unclear for East Asians as most effect estimates were imprecise. By triangulating multiple approaches (i.e. uni-/multi-variable Mendelian randomization, a phenome-wide scan, genetic colocalization and within-sibling analyses), our results are compatible with higher low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (and possibly glucose) being a downstream effect of higher PUFA biosynthesis rate. Our findings indicate that PUFA and MUFA biosynthesis are involved in the etiology of CVDs and suggest LDL cholesterol as a potential mediating trait between PUFA biosynthesis and CVDs risk.

Therapeutic Targets for Heart Failure Identified Using Proteomics and Mendelian Randomization.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a highly prevalent disorder for which disease mechanisms are incompletely understood. The discovery of disease-associated proteins with causal genetic evidence provides an opportunity to identify new therapeutic targets. METHODS: We investigated the observational and causal associations of 90 cardiovascular proteins, which were measured using affinity-based proteomic assays. First, we estimated the associations of 90 cardiovascular proteins with incident heart failure by means of a fixed-effect meta-analysis of 4 population-based studies, composed of a total of 3019 participants with 732 HF events. The causal effects of HF-associated proteins were then investigated by Mendelian randomization, using cis-protein quantitative loci genetic instruments identified from genomewide association studies in more than 30 000 individuals. To improve the precision of causal estimates, we implemented an Mendelian randomization model that accounted for linkage disequilibrium between instruments and tested the robustness of causal estimates through a multiverse sensitivity analysis that included up to 120 combinations of instrument selection parameters and Mendelian randomization models per protein. The druggability of candidate proteins was surveyed, and mechanism of action and potential on-target side effects were explored with cross-trait Mendelian randomization analysis. RESULTS: Forty-four of ninety proteins were positively associated with risk of incident HF (P<6.0×10-4). Among these, 8 proteins had evidence of a causal association with HF that was robust to multiverse sensitivity analysis: higher CSF-1 (macrophage colony-stimulating factor 1), Gal-3 (galectin-3) and KIM-1 (kidney injury molecule 1) were positively associated with risk of HF, whereas higher ADM (adrenomedullin), CHI3L1 (chitinase-3-like protein 1), CTSL1 (cathepsin L1), FGF-23 (fibroblast growth factor 23), and MMP-12 (matrix metalloproteinase-12) were protective. Therapeutics targeting ADM and Gal-3 are currently under evaluation in clinical trials, and all the remaining proteins were considered druggable, except KIM-1. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 44 circulating proteins that were associated with incident HF, of which 8 showed evidence of a causal relationship and 7 were druggable, including adrenomedullin, which represents a particularly promising drug target. Our approach demonstrates a tractable roadmap for the triangulation of population genomic and proteomic data for the prioritization of therapeutic targets for complex human diseases.

Evidence-Based Assessment of Genes in Dilated Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Each of the cardiomyopathies, classically categorized as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, has a signature genetic theme. Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy are largely understood as genetic diseases of sarcomere or desmosome proteins, respectively. In contrast, >250 genes spanning >10 gene ontologies have been implicated in DCM, representing a complex and diverse genetic architecture. To clarify this, a systematic curation of evidence to establish the relationship of genes with DCM was conducted. METHODS: An international panel with clinical and scientific expertise in DCM genetics evaluated evidence supporting monogenic relationships of genes with idiopathic DCM. The panel used the Clinical Genome Resource semiquantitative gene-disease clinical validity classification framework with modifications for DCM genetics to classify genes into categories on the basis of the strength of currently available evidence. Representation of DCM genes on clinically available genetic testing panels was evaluated. RESULTS: Fifty-one genes with human genetic evidence were curated. Twelve genes (23%) from 8 gene ontologies were classified as having definitive (BAG3, DES, FLNC, LMNA, MYH7, PLN, RBM20, SCN5A, TNNC1, TNNT2, TTN) or strong (DSP) evidence. Seven genes (14%; ACTC1, ACTN2, JPH2, NEXN, TNNI3, TPM1, VCL) including 2 additional ontologies were classified as moderate evidence; these genes are likely to emerge as strong or definitive with additional evidence. Of these 19 genes, 6 were similarly classified for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and 3 for arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. Of the remaining 32 genes (63%), 25 (49%) had limited evidence, 4 (8%) were disputed, 2 (4%) had no disease relationship, and 1 (2%) was supported by animal model data only. Of the 16 evaluated clinical genetic testing panels, most definitive genes were included, but panels also included numerous genes with minimal human evidence. CONCLUSIONS: In the curation of 51 genes, 19 had high evidence (12 definitive/strong, 7 moderate). It is notable that these 19 genes explain only a minority of cases, leaving the remainder of DCM genetic architecture incompletely addressed. Clinical genetic testing panels include most high-evidence genes; however, genes lacking robust evidence are also commonly included. We recommend that high-evidence DCM genes be used for clinical practice and that caution be exercised in the interpretation of variants in variable-evidence DCM genes.

Integrating polygenic risk scores in the prediction of type 2 diabetes risk and subtypes in British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is highly prevalent in British South Asians, yet they are underrepresented in research. Genes & Health (G&H) is a large, population study of British Pakistanis and Bangladeshis (BPB) comprising genomic and routine health data. We assessed the extent to which genetic risk for T2D is shared between BPB and European populations (EUR). We then investigated whether the integration of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for T2D with an existing risk tool (QDiabetes) could improve prediction of incident disease and the characterisation of disease subtypes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this observational cohort study, we assessed whether common genetic loci associated with T2D in EUR individuals were replicated in 22,490 BPB individuals in G&H. We replicated fewer loci in G&H (n = 76/338, 22%) than would be expected given power if all EUR-ascertained loci were transferable (n = 101, 30%; p = 0.001). Of the 27 transferable loci that were powered to interrogate this, only 9 showed evidence of shared causal variants. We constructed a T2D PRS and combined it with a clinical risk instrument (QDiabetes) in a novel, integrated risk tool (IRT) to assess risk of incident diabetes. To assess model performance, we compared categorical net reclassification index (NRI) versus QDiabetes alone. In 13,648 patients free from T2D followed up for 10 years, NRI was 3.2% for IRT versus QDiabetes (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0% to 4.4%). IRT performed best in reclassification of individuals aged less than 40 years deemed low risk by QDiabetes alone (NRI 5.6%, 95% CI 3.6% to 7.6%), who tended to be free from comorbidities and slim. After adjustment for QDiabetes score, PRS was independently associated with progression to T2D after gestational diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) per SD of PRS 1.23, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.42, p = 0.028). Using cluster analysis of clinical features at diabetes diagnosis, we replicated previously reported disease subgroups, including Mild Age-Related, Mild Obesity-related, and Insulin-Resistant Diabetes, and showed that PRS distribution differs between subgroups (p = 0.002). Integrating PRS in this cluster analysis revealed a Probable Severe Insulin Deficient Diabetes (pSIDD) subgroup, despite the absence of clinical measures of insulin secretion or resistance. We also observed differences in rates of progression to micro- and macrovascular complications between subgroups after adjustment for confounders. Study limitations include the absence of an external replication cohort and the potential biases arising from missing or incorrect routine health data. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis of the transferability of T2D loci between EUR and BPB indicates the need for larger, multiancestry studies to better characterise the genetic contribution to disease and its varied aetiology. We show that a T2D PRS optimised for this high-risk BPB population has potential clinical application in BPB, improving the identification of T2D risk (especially in the young) on top of an established clinical risk algorithm and aiding identification of subgroups at diagnosis, which may help future efforts to stratify care and treatment of the disease.

Machine learning for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure, acute coronary syndromes and atrial fibrillation: systematic review of validity and clinical utility.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in research for subtype definition and risk prediction, particularly in cardiovascular diseases. No existing ML models are routinely used for cardiovascular disease management, and their phase of clinical utility is unknown, partly due to a lack of clear criteria. We evaluated ML for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure (HF), acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: For ML studies of subtype definition and risk prediction, we conducted a systematic review in HF, ACS and AF, using PubMed, MEDLINE and Web of Science from January 2000 until December 2019. By adapting published criteria for diagnostic and prognostic studies, we developed a seven-domain, ML-specific checklist. RESULTS: Of 5918 studies identified, 97 were included. Across studies for subtype definition (n = 40) and risk prediction (n = 57), there was variation in data source, population size (median 606 and median 6769), clinical setting (outpatient, inpatient, different departments), number of covariates (median 19 and median 48) and ML methods. All studies were single disease, most were North American (n = 61/97) and only 14 studies combined definition and risk prediction. Subtype definition and risk prediction studies respectively had limitations in development (e.g. 15.0% and 78.9% of studies related to patient benefit; 15.0% and 15.8% had low patient selection bias), validation (12.5% and 5.3% externally validated) and impact (32.5% and 91.2% improved outcome prediction; no effectiveness or cost-effectiveness evaluations). CONCLUSIONS: Studies of ML in HF, ACS and AF are limited by number and type of included covariates, ML methods, population size, country, clinical setting and focus on single diseases, not overlap or multimorbidity. Clinical utility and implementation rely on improvements in development, validation and impact, facilitated by simple checklists. We provide clear steps prior to safe implementation of machine learning in clinical practice for cardiovascular diseases and other disease areas.

Weight Change and the Onset of Cardiovascular Diseases: Emulating Trials Using Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectional measures of body mass index (BMI) are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but less is known about whether weight change affects the risk of CVD. METHODS: We estimated the effect of 2-y weight change interventions on 7-y risk of CVD (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization from coronary heart disease, and heart failure) by emulating hypothetical interventions using electronic health records. We identified 138,567 individuals with 45-69 years of age without chronic disease in England from 1998 to 2016. We performed pooled logistic regression, using inverse-probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. We categorized each individual into a weight loss, maintenance, or gain group. RESULTS: Among those of normal weight, both weight loss [risk difference (RD) vs. weight maintenance = 1.5% (0.3% to 3.0%)] and gain [RD = 1.3% (0.5% to 2.2%)] were associated with increased risk for CVD compared with weight maintenance. Among overweight individuals, we observed moderately higher risk of CVD in both the weight loss [RD = 0.7% (-0.2% to 1.7%)] and the weight gain group [RD = 0.7% (-0.1% to 1.7%)], compared with maintenance. In the obese, those losing weight showed lower risk of coronary heart disease [RD = -1.4% (-2.4% to -0.6%)] but not of stroke. When we assumed that chronic disease occurred 1-3 years before the recorded date, estimates for weight loss and gain were attenuated among overweight individuals; estimates for loss were lower among obese individuals. CONCLUSION: Among individuals with obesity, the weight-loss group had a lower risk of coronary heart disease but not of stroke. Weight gain was associated with increased risk of CVD across BMI groups. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B838.

Beta-blockers and inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system for chronic heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: Beta-blockers and inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system improve survival and reduce morbidity in people with heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF); a review of the evidence is required to determine whether these treatments are beneficial for people with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists in people with HFpEF. SEARCH METHODS: We updated searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and one clinical trial register on 14 May 2020 to identify eligible studies, with no language or date restrictions. We checked references from trial reports and review articles for additional studies.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials with a parallel group design, enrolling adults with HFpEF, defined by LVEF greater than 40%. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. MAIN RESULTS: We included 41 randomised controlled trials (231 reports), totalling 23,492 participants across all comparisons. The risk of bias was frequently unclear and only five studies had a low risk of bias in all domains. Beta-blockers (BBs) We included 10 studies (3087 participants) investigating BBs. Five studies used a placebo comparator and in five the comparator was usual care. The mean age of participants ranged from 30 years to 81 years. A possible reduction in cardiovascular mortality was observed (risk ratio (RR) 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.99; number needed to treat for an additional benefit (NNTB) 25; 1046 participants; three studies), however, the certainty of evidence was low. There may be little to no effect on all-cause mortality (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.00; 1105 participants; four studies; low-certainty evidence). The effects on heart failure hospitalisation, hyperkalaemia, and quality of life remain uncertain. Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) We included 13 studies (4459 participants) investigating MRA. Eight studies used a placebo comparator and in five the comparator was usual care. The mean age of participants ranged from 54.5 to 80 years. Pooled analysis indicated that MRA treatment probably reduces heart failure hospitalisation (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.98; NNTB = 41; 3714 participants; three studies; moderate-certainty evidence). However, MRA treatment probably has little or no effect on all-cause mortality (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.06; 4207 participants; five studies; moderate-certainty evidence) and cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.11; 4070 participants; three studies; moderate-certainty evidence). MRA treatment may have little or no effect on quality of life measures (mean difference (MD) 0.84, 95% CI -2.30 to 3.98; 511 participants; three studies; low-certainty evidence). MRA treatment was associated with a higher risk of hyperkalaemia (RR 2.11, 95% CI 1.77 to 2.51; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) = 11; 4291 participants; six studies; high-certainty evidence). Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) We included eight studies (2061 participants) investigating ACEIs. Three studies used a placebo comparator and in five the comparator was usual care. The mean age of participants ranged from 70 to 82 years. Pooled analyses with moderate-certainty evidence suggest that ACEI treatment likely has little or no effect on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.42; 945 participants; two studies), all-cause mortality (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.45; 1187 participants; five studies) and heart failure hospitalisation (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.15; 1019 participants; three studies), and may result in little or no effect on the quality of life (MD -0.09, 95% CI -3.66 to 3.48; 154 participants; two studies; low-certainty evidence). The effects on hyperkalaemia remain uncertain. Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) Eight studies (8755 participants) investigating ARBs were included. Five studies used a placebo comparator and in three the comparator was usual care. The mean age of participants ranged from 61 to 75 years. Pooled analyses with high certainty of evidence suggest that ARB treatment has little or no effect on cardiovascular mortality (RR 1.02, 95% 0.90 to 1.14; 7254 participants; three studies), all-cause mortality (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.11; 7964 participants; four studies), heart failure hospitalisation (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.02; 7254 participants; three studies), and quality of life (MD 0.41, 95% CI -0.86 to 1.67; 3117 participants; three studies). ARB was associated with a higher risk of hyperkalaemia (RR 1.88, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.33; 7148 participants; two studies; high-certainty evidence). Angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (ARNIs) Three studies (7702 participants) investigating ARNIs were included. Two studies used ARBs as the comparator and one used standardised medical therapy, based on participants' established treatments at enrolment. The mean age of participants ranged from 71 to 73 years. Results suggest that ARNIs may have little or no effect on cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.15; 4796 participants; one study; moderate-certainty evidence), all-cause mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.11; 7663 participants; three studies; high-certainty evidence), or quality of life (high-certainty evidence). However, ARNI treatment may result in a slight reduction in heart failure hospitalisation, compared to usual care (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.00; 7362 participants; two studies; moderate-certainty evidence). ARNI treatment was associated with a reduced risk of hyperkalaemia compared with valsartan (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.01; 5054 participants; two studies; moderate-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that MRA and ARNI treatment in HFpEF probably reduces heart failure hospitalisation but probably has little or no effect on cardiovascular mortality and quality of life. BB treatment may reduce the risk of cardiovascular mortality, however, further trials are needed. The current evidence for BBs, ACEIs, and ARBs is limited and does not support their use in HFpEF in the absence of an alternative indication. Although MRAs and ARNIs are probably effective at reducing the risk of heart failure hospitalisation, the treatment effect sizes are modest. There is a need for improved approaches to patient stratification to identify the subgroup of patients who are most likely to benefit from MRAs and ARNIs, as well as for an improved understanding of disease biology, and for new therapeutic approaches.

Beta-blockers and inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system for chronic heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: Beta-blockers and inhibitors of the renin-angiotensin aldosterone system improve survival and reduce morbidity in people with heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. There is uncertainty whether these treatments are beneficial for people with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and a comprehensive review of the evidence is required. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of beta-blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists in people with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase and two clinical trial registries on 25 July 2017 to identify eligible studies. Reference lists from primary studies and review articles were checked for additional studies. There were no language or date restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials with a parallel group design enrolling adult participants with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, defined by a left ventricular ejection fraction of greater than 40 percent. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data. The outcomes assessed included cardiovascular mortality, heart failure hospitalisation, hyperkalaemia, all-cause mortality and quality of life. Risk ratios (RR) and, where possible, hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for dichotomous outcomes. For continuous data, mean difference (MD) or standardised mean difference (SMD) were calculated. We contacted trialists where neccessary to obtain missing data. MAIN RESULTS: 37 randomised controlled trials (207 reports) were included across all comparisons with a total of 18,311 participants.Ten studies (3087 participants) investigating beta-blockers (BB) were included. A pooled analysis indicated a reduction in cardiovascular mortality (15% of participants in the intervention arm versus 19% in the control arm; RR 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.99; number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) 25; 1046 participants; 3 studies). However, the quality of evidence was low and no effect on cardiovascular mortality was observed when the analysis was limited to studies with a low risk of bias (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.50 to 1.29; 643 participants; 1 study). There was no effect on all-cause mortality, heart failure hospitalisation or quality of life measures, however there is uncertainty about these effects given the limited evidence available.12 studies (4408 participants) investigating mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) were included with the quality of evidence assessed as moderate. MRA treatment reduced heart failure hospitalisation (11% of participants in the intervention arm versus 14% in the control arm; RR 0.82; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.98; NNTB 41; 3714 participants; 3 studies; moderate-quality evidence) however, little or no effect on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and quality of life measures was observed. MRA treatment was associated with a greater risk of hyperkalaemia (16% of participants in the intervention group versus 8% in the control group; RR 2.11; 95% CI 1.77 to 2.51; 4291 participants; 6 studies; high-quality evidence).Eight studies (2061 participants) investigating angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) were included with the overall quality of evidence assessed as moderate. The evidence suggested that ACEI treatment likely has little or no effect on cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, heart failure hospitalisation, or quality of life. Data for the effect of ACEI on hyperkalaemia were only available from one of the included studies.Eight studies (8755 participants) investigating angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) were included with the overall quality of evidence assessed as high. The evidence suggested that treatment with ARB has little or no effect on cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, heart failure hospitalisation, or quality of life. ARB was associated with an increased risk of hyperkalaemia (0.9% of participants in the intervention group versus 0.5% in the control group; RR 1.88; 95% CI 1.07 to 3.33; 7148 participants; 2 studies; high-quality evidence).We identified a single ongoing placebo-controlled study investigating the effect of angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI) in people with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that MRA treatment reduces heart failure hospitalisation in heart failure with preserverd ejection fraction, however the effects on mortality related outcomes and quality of life remain unclear. The available evidence for beta-blockers, ACEI, ARB and ARNI is limited and it remains uncertain whether these treatments have a role in the treatment of HFpEF in the absence of an alternative indication for their use. This comprehensive review highlights a persistent gap in the evidence that is currently being addressed through several large ongoing clinical trials.

Rationale and design of the THIRST Alert feasibility study: a pragmatic, single-centre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial of an interruptive alert for oral fluid restriction in patients treated with intravenous furosemide.

INTRODUCTION: Acute heart failure (HF) is a major cause of unplanned hospitalisation characterised by excess body water. A restriction in oral fluid intake is commonly imposed on patients as an adjunct to pharmacological therapy with loop diuretics, but there is a lack of evidence from traditional randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to support the safety and effectiveness of this intervention in the acute setting.This study aims to explore the feasibility of using computer alerts within the electronic health record (EHR) system to invite clinical care teams to enrol patients into a pragmatic RCT at the time of clinical decision-making. It will additionally assess the effectiveness of using an alert to help address the clinical research question of whether oral fluid restriction is a safe and effective adjunct to pharmacological therapy for patients admitted with fluid overload. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: THIRST (Randomised Controlled Trial within the electronic Health record of an Interruptive alert displaying a fluid Restriction Suggestion in patients with the treatable Trait of congestion) Alert is a single-centre, parallel-group, open-label pragmatic RCT embedded in the EHR system that will be conducted as a feasibility study at an National Health Service (NHS) hospital in London. The clinical care team will be invited to enrol suitable patients in the study using a point-of-care alert with a target sample size of 50 patients. Enrolled patients will then be randomised to either restricted or unrestricted oral fluid intake. Two primary outcomes will be explored (1) the proportion of eligible patients enrolled in the study and (2) the mean difference in oral fluid intake between randomised groups. A series of secondary outcomes are specified to evaluate the effectiveness of the alert, adherence to the randomised treatment allocation and the quality of data generated from routine care, relevant to the outcomes of interest. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by Riverside Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 22/LO/0889) and will be published on completion. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05869656.

Translating and evaluating historic phenotyping algorithms using SNOMED CT.

OBJECTIVE: Patient phenotype definitions based on terminologies are required for the computational use of electronic health records. Within UK primary care research databases, such definitions have typically been represented as flat lists of Read terms, but Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine-Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) (a widely employed international reference terminology) enables the use of relationships between concepts, which could facilitate the phenotyping process. We implemented SNOMED CT-based phenotyping approaches and investigated their performance in the CPRD Aurum primary care database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed SNOMED CT phenotype definitions for 3 exemplar diseases: diabetes mellitus, asthma, and heart failure, using 3 methods: "primary" (primary concept and its descendants), "extended" (primary concept, descendants, and additional relations), and "value set" (based on text searches of term descriptions). We also derived SNOMED CT codelists in a semiautomated manner for 276 disease phenotypes used in a study of health across the lifecourse. Cohorts selected using each codelist were compared to "gold standard" manually curated Read codelists in a sample of 500 000 patients from CPRD Aurum. RESULTS: SNOMED CT codelists selected a similar set of patients to Read, with F1 scores exceeding 0.93, and age and sex distributions were similar. The "value set" and "extended" codelists had slightly greater recall but lower precision than "primary" codelists. We were able to represent 257 of the 276 phenotypes by a single concept hierarchy, and for 135 phenotypes, the F1 score was greater than 0.9. CONCLUSIONS: SNOMED CT provides an efficient way to define disease phenotypes, resulting in similar patient populations to manually curated codelists.

HFrEF subphenotypes based on 4210 repeatedly measured circulating proteins are driven by different biological mechanisms.

BACKGROUND: HFrEF is a heterogenous condition with high mortality. We used serial assessments of 4210 circulating proteins to identify distinct novel protein-based HFrEF subphenotypes and to investigate underlying dynamic biological mechanisms. Herewith we aimed to gain pathophysiological insights and fuel opportunities for personalised treatment. METHODS: In 382 patients, we performed trimonthly blood sampling during a median follow-up of 2.1 [IQR:1.1-2.6] years. We selected all baseline samples and two samples closest to the primary endpoint (PEP; composite of cardiovascular mortality, HF hospitalization, LVAD implantation, and heart transplantation) or censoring, and applied an aptamer-based multiplex proteomic approach. Using unsupervised machine learning methods, we derived clusters from 4210 repeatedly measured proteomic biomarkers. Sets of proteins that drove cluster allocation were analysed via an enrichment analysis. Differences in clinical characteristics and PEP occurrence were evaluated. FINDINGS: We identified four subphenotypes with different protein profiles, prognosis and clinical characteristics, including age (median [IQR] for subphenotypes 1-4, respectively:70 [64, 76], 68 [60, 79], 57 [47, 65], 59 [56, 66]years), EF (30 [26, 36], 26 [20, 38], 26 [22, 32], 33 [28, 37]%), and chronic renal failure (45%, 65%, 36%, 37%). Subphenotype allocation was driven by subsets of proteins associated with various biological functions, such as oxidative stress, inflammation and extracellular matrix organisation. Clinical characteristics of the subphenotypes were aligned with these associations. Subphenotypes 2 and 3 had the worst prognosis compared to subphenotype 1 (adjHR (95%CI):3.43 (1.76-6.69), and 2.88 (1.37-6.03), respectively). INTERPRETATION: Four circulating-protein based subphenotypes are present in HFrEF, which are driven by varying combinations of protein subsets, and have different clinical characteristics and prognosis. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01851538https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01851538. FUNDING: EU/EFPIA IMI2JU BigData@Heart grant n°116074, Jaap Schouten Foundation and Noordwest Academie.

A population-based study of 92 clinically recognized risk factors for heart failure: co-occurrence, prognosis and preventive potential.

AIMS: Primary prevention strategies for heart failure (HF) have had limited success, possibly due to a wide range of underlying risk factors (RFs). Systematic evaluations of the prognostic burden and preventive potential across this wide range of risk factors are lacking. We aimed at estimating evidence, prevalence and co-occurrence for primary prevention and impact on prognosis of RFs for incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We systematically reviewed trials and observational evidence of primary HF prevention across 92 putative aetiologic RFs for HF identified from US and European clinical practice guidelines. We identified 170 885 individuals aged ≥30 years with incident HF from 1997 to 2017, using linked primary and secondary care UK electronic health records (EHR) and rule-based phenotypes (ICD-10, Read Version 2, OPCS-4 procedure and medication codes) for each of 92 RFs. Only 10/92 factors had high quality observational evidence for association with incident HF; 7 had effective randomized controlled trial (RCT)-based interventions for HF prevention (RCT-HF), and 6 for cardiovascular disease prevention, but not HF (RCT-CVD), and the remainder had no RCT-based preventive interventions (RCT-0). We were able to map 91/92 risk factors to EHR using 5961 terms, and 88/91 factors were represented by at least one patient. In the 5 years prior to HF diagnosis, 44.3% had ≥4 RFs. By RCT evidence, the most common RCT-HF RFs were hypertension (48.5%), stable angina (34.9%), unstable angina (16.8%), myocardial infarction (15.8%), and diabetes (15.1%); RCT-CVD RFs were smoking (46.4%) and obesity (29.9%); and RCT-0 RFs were atrial arrhythmias (17.2%), cancer (16.5%), heavy alcohol intake (14.9%). Mortality at 1 year varied across all 91 factors (lowest: pregnancy-related hormonal disorder 4.2%; highest: phaeochromocytoma 73.7%). Among new HF cases, 28.5% had no RCT-HF RFs and 38.6% had no RCT-CVD RFs. 15.6% had either no RF or only RCT-0 RFs. CONCLUSION: One in six individuals with HF have no recorded RFs or RFs without trials. We provide a systematic map of primary preventive opportunities across a wide range of RFs for HF, demonstrating a high burden of co-occurrence and the need for trials tackling multiple RFs.

Transferability of genetic loci and polygenic scores for cardiometabolic traits in British Pakistani and Bangladeshi individuals.

Individuals with South Asian ancestry have a higher risk of heart disease than other groups but have been largely excluded from genetic research. Using data from 22,000 British Pakistani and Bangladeshi individuals with linked electronic health records from the Genes & Health cohort, we conducted genome-wide association studies of coronary artery disease and its key risk factors. Using power-adjusted transferability ratios, we found evidence for transferability for the majority of cardiometabolic loci powered to replicate. The performance of polygenic scores was high for lipids and blood pressure, but lower for BMI and coronary artery disease. Adding a polygenic score for coronary artery disease to clinical risk factors showed significant improvement in reclassification. In Mendelian randomisation using transferable loci as instruments, our findings were consistent with results in European-ancestry individuals. Taken together, trait-specific transferability of trait loci between populations is an important consideration with implications for risk prediction and causal inference.

Genetic and environmental determinants of diastolic heart function.

Diastole is the sequence of physiological events that occur in the heart during ventricular filling and principally depends on myocardial relaxation and chamber stiffness. Abnormal diastolic function is related to many cardiovascular disease processes and is predictive of health outcomes, but its genetic architecture is largely unknown. Here, we use machine learning cardiac motion analysis to measure diastolic functional traits in 39,559 participants of the UK Biobank and perform a genome-wide association study. We identified 9 significant, independent loci near genes that are associated with maintaining sarcomeric function under biomechanical stress and genes implicated in the development of cardiomyopathy. Age, sex and diabetes were independent predictors of diastolic function and we found a causal relationship between genetically-determined ventricular stiffness and incident heart failure. Our results provide insights into the genetic and environmental factors influencing diastolic function that are relevant for identifying causal relationships and potential tractable targets.

CODE-EHR best-practice framework for the use of structured electronic health-care records in clinical research.

Big data is important to new developments in global clinical science that aim to improve the lives of patients. Technological advances have led to the regular use of structured electronic health-care records with the potential to address key deficits in clinical evidence that could improve patient care. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown this potential in big data and related analytics but has also revealed important limitations. Data verification, data validation, data privacy, and a mandate from the public to conduct research are important challenges to effective use of routine health-care data. The European Society of Cardiology and the BigData@Heart consortium have brought together a range of international stakeholders, including representation from patients, clinicians, scientists, regulators, journal editors, and industry members. In this Review, we propose the CODE-EHR minimum standards framework to be used by researchers and clinicians to improve the design of studies and enhance transparency of study methods. The CODE-EHR framework aims to develop robust and effective utilisation of health-care data for research purposes.

Life-Time Covariation of Major Cardiovascular Diseases: A 40-Year Longitudinal Study and Genetic Studies.

BACKGROUND: It is known that certain cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are associated, like atrial fibrillation and stroke. However, for other CVDs, the links and temporal trends are less studied. In this longitudinal study, we have investigated temporal epidemiological and genetic associations between different CVDs. METHODS: The ULSAM (Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men; 2322 men aged 50 years) has been followed for 40 years regarding 4 major CVDs (incident myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation). For the genetic analyses, publicly available data were used. RESULTS: Using multistate modeling, significant relationships were seen between pairs of all of the 4 investigated CVDs. However, the risk of obtaining one additional CVD differed substantially both between different CVDs and between their temporal order. The relationship between heart failure and atrial fibrillation showed a high risk ratio (risk ratios, 24-26) regardless of the temporal order. A consistent association was seen also for myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation but with a lower relative risk (risk ratios, 4-5). In contrast, the risk of receiving a diagnosis of heart failure following a myocardial infarction was almost twice as high as for the reverse temporal order (risk ratios, 16 versus 9). Genetic loci linked to traditional risk factors could partly explain the observed associations between the CVDs, but pathway analyses disclosed also other pathophysiological links. CONCLUSIONS: During 40 years, all of the 4 investigated CVDs were pairwise associated with each other regardless of the temporal order of occurrence, but the risk magnitude differed between different CVDs and their temporal order. Genetic analyses disclosed new pathophysiological links between CVDs.