The intersection between migration, HIV, and contraceptive use in Uganda: a cross-sectional population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Low use of modern methods of contraception has been linked to HIV seropositivity and to migration, but few studies have evaluated the intersection of both risk factors with contraceptive use. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data from sexually active female participants aged 15 to 49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) between 2011 and 2013. The RCCS is an open population-based census and individual survey in south-central Uganda. Recent in-migrants (arrival within approximately 1.5 years) into RCCS communities were identified at time of household census. The primary outcome was unsatisfied demand for a modern contraceptive method (injectable, oral pill, implant, or condom), which was defined as non-use of a modern contraceptive method among female participants who did not want to become pregnant in the next 12 months. Poisson regression models with robust variance estimators were used to identify associations and interactions between recent migration and HIV serostatus on unsatisfied contraceptive demand. RESULTS: There were 3,417 sexually active participants with no intention of becoming pregnant in the next year. The mean age was 30 (± 8) years, and 17.3% (n = 591) were living with HIV. Overall, 43.9% (n = 1,500) were not using any modern contraceptive method. Recent in-migrants were somewhat more likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand as compared to long-term residents (adjusted prevalence risk ratio [adjPRR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.02-1.27), whereas participants living with HIV were less likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand relative to HIV-seronegative participants (adjPRR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.70-0.90). When stratifying on migration and HIV serostatus, we observed the highest levels of unsatisfied contraceptive demand among in-migrants living with HIV (48.7%); however, in regression analyses, interaction terms between migration and HIV serostatus were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Unsatisfied contraceptive demand was high in this rural Ugandan setting. Being an in-migrant, particularly among those living with HIV, was associated with higher unsatisfied contraceptive demand.

Through a cross-sectional study, we explored the relationship between HIV status, migration, and contraceptive use among sexually active women of reproductive age in rural south-central Uganda. People who had moved into the study area within the last 1.5 years were considered in-migrants, compared to long-term residents i.e. people who had not moved. We examined unsatisfied demand for a modern contraceptive method, which is to say female participants who did not want to become pregnant in the next 12 months and were not using at least one of the following contraceptive methods: injectable, oral pill, implant, or condom. We included 3,417 sexually active female participants with no intention of becoming pregnant in the next year. The average age of these women was 30 years, less than 20% were living with HIV, and almost half were not using any modern contraceptive methods. Recent in-migrants were somewhat more likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand as compared to long-term residents, whereas participants living with HIV were less likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand relative to HIV-negative participants. Being an in-migrant, particularly among those living with HIV, was associated with higher unsatisfied contraceptive demand. This study shows the need for integrating contraceptive and HIV services for mobile populations in East Africa.

Capacity to Consent to Research Among Adolescent-Parent Dyads in Rakai, Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cognitive capacity of early, middle, and late adolescents and their parents or guardians to provide informed consent to a population-based cohort study. STUDY DESIGN: Adolescent-parent/guardian dyads including 40 early (n = 80; 10-14 years), 20 middle (15-17 years), and 20 late (18-19 years) adolescents were recruited from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open demographic cohort in Uganda. Participants were administered the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Clinical Research, a structured open-ended assessment; interviews were recorded and transcribed. Twenty transcripts were scored independently by two coders; the intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.89. The remaining interviews were scored individually. We compared mean scores for early and middle/late adolescents using a one-sided t test and score differences between parent/guardian and adolescent dyads using two-sided paired t tests. RESULTS: Early adolescents (mean score, 28.8; 95% CI, 27.1-30.5) scored significantly lower (P < .01) than middle/late adolescents (32.4; 31.6-33.1). In paired dyad comparisons, we observed no statistically significant difference in scores between parents/guardians and middle/late adolescents (difference, -0.2; 95% CI, -1.0-0.6). We found a statistically significant difference in scores between parents/guardians and early adolescents (difference, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.2-4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The capacity of adolescents-of different ages and in diverse settings-to comprehend risks, benefits, and other elements of informed consent is a critical but understudied area in research ethics. Our findings support the practice of having middle and late adolescents provide independent informed consent for sexual and reproductive health studies. Early adolescents may benefit from supported decision-making approaches.

Rapid Replacement of SARS-CoV-2 Variants by Delta and Subsequent Arrival of Omicron, Uganda, 2021.

Genomic surveillance in Uganda showed rapid replacement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 over time by variants, dominated by Delta. However, detection of the more transmissible Omicron variant among travelers and increasing community transmission highlight the need for near-real-time genomic surveillance and adherence to infection control measures to prevent future pandemic waves.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 seroprevalence in South-Central Uganda, during 2019-2021.

BACKGROUND: Globally, key subpopulations such as healthcare workers (HCW) may have a higher risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2. In Uganda, limited access to Personal Protective Equipment and lack of clarity on the extent/pattern of community spread may exacerbate this situation. The country established infection prevention/control measures such as lockdowns and proper hand hygiene. However, due to resource limitations and fatigue, compliance is low, posing continued onward transmission risk. This study aimed to describe extent of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in selected populations within the Rakai region of Uganda. METHODS: From 30th November 2020 to 8th January 2021, we collected venous blood from 753 HCW at twenty-six health facilities in South-Central Uganda and from 227 population-cohort participants who reported specific COVID-19 like symptoms (fever, cough, loss of taste and appetite) in a prior phone-based survey conducted (between May and August 2020) during the first national lockdown. 636 plasma specimens collected from individuals considered high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection, prior to the first confirmed COVID-19 case in Uganda were also retrieved. Specimens were tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using the CoronaChek™ rapid COVID-19 IgM/IgG lateral flow test assay. IgM only positive samples were confirmed using a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA) (Architect AdviseDx SARS-CoV-2 IgM) which targets the spike protein. SARS-CoV-2 exposure was defined as either confirmed IgM, both IgM and IgG or sole IgG positivity. Overall seroprevalence in each participant group was estimated, adjusting for test performance. RESULTS: The seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in HCW was 26.7% [95%CI: 23.5, 29.8] with no difference by sex, age, or cadre. We observed no association between PPE use and seropositivity among exposed healthcare workers. Of the phone-based survey participants, 15.6% [95%CI: 10.9, 20.3] had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, with no difference by HIV status, sex, age, or occupation. Among 636 plasma specimens collected prior to the first confirmed COVID-19 case, 2.3% [95%CI: 1.2, 3.5] were reactive. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among HCW and substantial exposure in persons presenting with specific COVID-19 like symptoms in the general population of South-Central Uganda. Based on current limitations in serological test confirmation, it remains unclear whether seroprevalence among plasma specimens collected prior to confirmation of the first COVID-19 case implies prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Uganda.

Differential Performance of CoronaCHEK SARS-CoV-2 Lateral Flow Antibody Assay by Geographic Origin of Samples.

We assessed the performance of the CoronaCHEK lateral flow assay on samples from Uganda and Baltimore to determine the impact of geographic origin on assay performance. Plasma samples from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR-positive individuals (Uganda, 78 samples from 78 individuals, and Baltimore, 266 samples from 38 individuals) and from prepandemic individuals (Uganda, 1,077, and Baltimore, 532) were evaluated. Prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated to identify factors associated with a false-positive test. After the first positive PCR in Ugandan samples, the sensitivity was 45% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24,68) at 0 to 7 days, 79% (95% CI, 64 to 91) at 8 to 14 days, and 76% (95% CI, 50 to 93) at >15 days. In samples from Baltimore, sensitivity was 39% (95% CI, 30 to 49) at 0 to 7 days, 86% (95% CI, 79 to 92) at 8 to 14 days, and 100% (95% CI, 89 to 100) at 15 days after positive PCR. The specificity of 96.5% (95% CI, 97.5 to 95.2) in Ugandan samples was significantly lower than that in samples from Baltimore, 99.3% (95% CI, 98.1 to 99.8; P < 0.01). In Ugandan samples, individuals with a false-positive result were more likely to be male (PR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.03,3.69) or individuals who had had a fever more than a month prior to sample acquisition (PR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.12 to 7.35). Sensitivity of the CoronaCHEK was similar in samples from Uganda and Baltimore. The specificity was significantly lower in Ugandan samples than in Baltimore samples. False-positive results in Ugandan samples appear to correlate with a recent history of a febrile illness, potentially indicative of a cross-reactive immune response in individuals from East Africa.

HIV drug resistance among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: WHO revised their HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) monitoring strategy in 2014, enabling countries to generate nationally representative HIVDR prevalence estimates from surveys conducted using this methodology. In 2016, we adopted this strategy in Uganda and conducted an HIVDR survey among adults initiating or reinitiating ART. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of adults aged ≥18 years initiating or reinitiating ART was conducted at 23 sites using a two-stage cluster design sampling method. Participants provided written informed consent prior to enrolment. Whole blood collected in EDTA vacutainer tubes was used for preparation of dried blood spot (DBS) specimens or plasma. Samples were shipped from the sites to the Central Public Health Laboratory (CPHL) for temporary storage before transfer to the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) for genotyping. Prevalence of HIVDR among adults initiating or reinitiating ART was determined. RESULTS: Specimens from 491 participants (median age 32 years and 61.5% female) were collected between August and December 2016. Specimens from 351 participants were successfully genotyped. Forty-nine had drug resistance mutations, yielding an overall weighted HIVDR prevalence of 18.2% with the highest noted for NNRTIs at 14.1%. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high HIVDR prevalence for NNRTIs among adults prior to initiating or reinitiating ART in Uganda. This is above WHO's recommended threshold of 10% when countries should consider changing from NNRTI- to dolutegravir-based first-line regimens. This recommendation was adopted in the revised Ugandan ART guidelines. Dolutegravir-containing ART regimens are preferred for first- and second-line ART regimens.

Prevalence of viral load suppression, predictors of virological failure and patterns of HIV drug resistance after 12 and 48 months on first-line antiretroviral therapy: a national cross-sectional survey in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: We implemented the WHO cross-sectional survey protocol to determine rates of HIV viral load (VL) suppression (VLS), and weighted prevalence, predictors and patterns of acquired drug resistance (ADR) in individuals with virological failure (VF) defined as VL ≥1000 copies/mL. METHODS: We enrolled 547 and 1064 adult participants on first-line ART for 12 (±3) months (ADR12) and ≥48 months (ADR48), respectively. Dried blood spots and plasma specimens were collected for VL testing and genotyping among the VFs. RESULTS: VLS was 95.0% (95% CI 93.4%-96.5%) in the ADR12 group and 87.9% (95% CI 85.0%-90.9%) in the ADR48 group. The weighted prevalence of ADR was 96.1% (95% CI 72.9%-99.6%) in the ADR12 and 90.4% (95% CI 73.6-96.8%) in the ADR48 group, out of the 30 and 95 successful genotypes in the respective groups. Initiation on a zidovudine-based regimen compared with a tenofovir-based regimen was significantly associated with VF in the ADR48 group; adjusted OR (AOR) 1.96 (95% CI 1.13-3.39). Independent predictors of ADR in the ADR48 group were initiation on a zidovudine-based regimen compared with tenofovir-based regimens, AOR 3.16 (95% CI 1.34-7.46) and ART duration of ≥82 months compared with <82 months, AOR 1.92 (95% CI 1.03-3.59). CONCLUSIONS: While good VLS was observed, the high prevalence of ADR among the VFs before they underwent the recommended three intensive adherence counselling (IAC) sessions followed by repeat VL testing implies that IAC prior to treatment switching may be of limited benefit in improving VLS.

Cell Phones, Sexual Behaviors and HIV Prevalence in Rakai, Uganda: A Cross Sectional Analysis of Longitudinal Data.

Cell phones have increased communication and connection across the globe and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa-with potential consequences for the HIV epidemic. We examined the association among ownership of cell phones, sexual behaviors (number of sexual partners, alcohol use before sex, inconsistent condom use), and HIV prevalence. Data were from four rounds (2010-2016) of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (N = 58,275). Sexual behaviors and HIV prevalence were compared between people who owned a cell phone to people who did not own a cell phone. We stratified analysis by younger (15-24 years) and older (25+ years) age groups and by gender. Using logistic regression and after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, we found cell phone ownership was independently associated with increased odds of having two or more sexual partners in the past 12 months across age and gender groups (young men AOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.47-1.90; young women AOR 1.28 95% CI 1.08-1.53; older men AOR 1.54 95% CI 1.41-1.69; older women AOR 1.44 95% CI 1.26-1.65). Interestingly, young men who owned cell phones had decreased odds of using condoms inconsistently (AOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.57-0.75). For young women, cell phone ownership was associated with increased odds of using alcohol before sex (AOR 1.38 95% CI 1.17-1.63) and increased odds of inconsistent condom use (AOR 1.40, 95% 1.17-1.67). After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, only young women who owned cell phones had increased odds of being HIV positive (AOR 1.27 95% CI 1.07-1.50). This association was not mediated by sexual behaviors (Adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and sexual behaviors AOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.46). While cell phone ownership appears to be associated with increased HIV risk for young women, we also see a potential opportunity for future cell phone-based health interventions.

Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda.

There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000-14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case.

Evaluation of HIV-1 rapid tests and identification of alternative testing algorithms for use in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization recommends that countries conduct two phase evaluations of HIV rapid tests (RTs) in order to come up with the best algorithms. In this report, we present the first ever such evaluation in Uganda, involving both blood and oral based RTs. The role of weak positive (WP) bands on the accuracy of the individual RT and on the algorithms was also investigated. METHODS: In total 11 blood based and 3 oral transudate kits were evaluated. All together 2746 participants from seven sites, covering the four different regions of Uganda participated. Two enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) run in parallel were used as the gold standard. The performance and cost of the different algorithms was calculated, with a pre-determined price cut-off of either cheaper or within 20% price of the current algorithm of Determine + Statpak + Unigold. In the second phase, the three best algorithms selected in phase I were used at the point of care for purposes of quality control using finger stick whole blood. RESULTS: We identified three algorithms; Determine + SD Bioline + Statpak; Determine + Statpak + SD Bioline, both with the same sensitivity and specificity of 99.2% and 99.1% respectively and Determine + Statpak + Insti, with sensitivity and specificity of 99.1% and 99% respectively as having performed better and met the cost requirements. There were 15 other algorithms that performed better than the current one but rated more than the 20% price. None of the 3 oral mucosal transudate kits were suitable for inclusion in an algorithm because of their low sensitivities. Band intensity affected the performance of individual RTs but not the final algorithms. CONCLUSION: We have come up with three algorithms we recommend for public or Government procurement based on accuracy and cost. In case one algorithm is preferred, we recommend to replace Unigold, the current tie breaker with SD Bioline. We further recommend that all the 18 algorithms that have shown better performance than the current one are made available to the private sector where cost may not be a limiting factor.

Facing HIV infection and unintended pregnancy: Rakai, Uganda, 2001-2013.

BACKGROUND: Unintended pregnancy is a persistent and global issue with consequences for the health and well-being of mothers and babies. The aim of this paper is to examine unintended pregnancy over time in the context of substantial human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and increasing access to anti-retro viral therapy (ART). METHOD: Data are from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) - a cohort of communities with 10,000-12,000 adults, ages 15-49, in Rakai District, Uganda. We examined prevalence of current pregnancies over time, intended pregnancy, and unintended pregnancies (unwanted, mistimed, ambivalent). We then examined risk factors for the different categories of unintended pregnancy among women who were currently pregnant. The full sample included 32,205 observations over 13 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of mistimed pregnancy and unwanted pregnancy both decreased significantly over time (p < .001). The prevalence of current pregnancies and intended pregnancy showed no significant changes over the thirteen year period. The same overall pattern was found when only examining HIV positive women in the sample; however, the trends were not significant. Out of the 2820 current pregnancies reported, 54.4% were intended, 29.8% were mistimed, 13.2% were unwanted, and 2.5% were ambivalent. After controlling for other predictors, HIV status had no independent effect on mistimed pregnancy but had a significant effect on unwanted pregnancy (RRR = 2.44, 95% CI = 1.65-3.61, p < .001] and ambivalent pregnancy [RRR = 2.07; CI: 1.03 to 4.18, p = 0.041]. In 2004, after the introduction of ART, there was a decreased risk in unintended pregnancy [RR = 0.75; CI: 0.66 to 0.84, p < .001]. Women with a secondary education or higher also had a decreased risk in unintended pregnancy [RR = 0.70; CI: 0.70 to 0.92, p = 0.002]. DISCUSSION: HIV was an important predictor of unwanted pregnancy. Unintended pregnancy decreased in the sample over time which may be due to an increase in ART availability and rising levels of education.

Unfulfilled need for contraception among women with unmet need but with the intention to use contraception in Rakai, Uganda: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal data from a rural Ugandan cohort was used to estimate rates of unfulfilled need for contraception, defined as having unmet need and intent to use contraception at baseline but having an unintended pregnancy or with persistent unmet need for contraception at follow up. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2009 (5 survey rounds), a total of 2610 sexually active non-pregnant women with unmet need for contraception at the start of an inter-survey period were asked whether they intended to use any method of contraception until they desired a child. Modified Poisson multivariate regression was used to estimate unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% CI of unfulfilled need for contraception. RESULTS: The proportion of women with unmet need at the start of an interval who intended to use contraception significantly increased from 61 to 69.1% (p < 0.05). However the majority of women who said they intended to use contraception had unfulfilled need for contraception at the subsequent survey (64.8 to 56.8%). In the adjusted analysis, significant predictors of unfulfilled need for contraception included age 40-49 years (PR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.04-1.74) and those with unknown HIV status (PR = 1.16; 95% CI 1.06-1.26). CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant discrepancy between women's intent to use contraception (> 60%) and subsequent initiation of use (< 30%) with many having unintended pregnancies which might explain the persistent high fertility in Uganda. Future research needs to address unfulfilled need for contraception among women at risk of unintended pregnancies.

Contraceptive knowledge, perceptions, and concerns among men in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Low contraceptive uptake and high unmet need for contraception remain significant issues in Uganda compared to neighboring countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Rwanda. Although prior research on contraceptive uptake has indicated that male partners strongly influence women's decisions around contraceptive use, there is limited in-depth qualitative research on knowledge and concerns regarding modern contraceptive methods among Ugandan men. METHODS: Using in-depth interviews (N = 41), this qualitative study investigated major sources of knowledge about contraception and perceptions of contraceptive side effects among married Ugandan men. RESULTS: Men primarily reported knowledge of contraceptives based on partner's experience of side effects, partner's knowledge from health providers and mass media campaigns, and partner's knowledge from her peers. Men were less likely to report contraceptive knowledge from health care providers, mass media campaigns, or peers. Men's concerns about various contraceptive methods were broadly associated with failure of the method to work properly, adverse health effects on women, and severe adverse health effects on children. Own or partner's human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status did not impact on contraceptive knowledge. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found limited accurate knowledge about contraceptive methods among men in Uganda. Moreover, fears about the side effects of modern contraceptive methods appeared to be common among men. Family planning services in Uganda could be significantly strengthened by renewed efforts to focus on men's knowledge, fears, and misconceptions.

From policy to practice: exploring the implementation of antiretroviral therapy access and retention policies between 2013 and 2016 in six sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the implementation of 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) consolidated guidelines on the use of antiretroviral drugs for treating and preventing HIV infection at the facility level provides important lessons for the roll-out of future HIV policies. METHODS: A national policy review was conducted in six sub-Saharan African countries to map the inclusion of the 2013 WHO HIV treatment recommendations. Twenty indicators of policy adoption were selected to measure ART access (n = 12) and retention (n = 8). Two sequential cross-sectional surveys were conducted in facilities between 2013/2015 (round 1) and 2015/2016 (round 2) from ten health and demographic surveillance sites in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Using standardised questionnaires, facility managers were interviewed. Descriptive analyses were used to assess the change in the proportion of facilities that implemented these policy indicators between rounds. RESULTS: Although, expansion of ART access was explicitly stated in all countries' policies, most lacked policies that enhanced retention. Overall, 145 facilities were included in both rounds. The proportion of facilities that initiated ART at CD4 counts of 500 or less cells/µL increased between round 1 and 2 from 12 to 68%, and facilities initiating patients on 2013 WHO recommended ART regimen increased from 42 to 87%. There were no changes in the proportion of facilities reporting stock-outs of first-line ART in the past year (18 to 11%) nor in the provision of three-month supply of ART (43 to 38%). None of the facilities provided community-based ART delivery. CONCLUSION: The increase in ART initiation CD4 threshold in most countries, and substantial improvements made in the provision of WHO recommended first-line ART regimens demonstrates that rapid adoption of WHO recommendations is possible. However, improved logistics and resources and/or changes in policy are required to further minimise ART stock-outs and allow lay cadres to dispense ART in the community. Increased efforts are needed to offer longer durations between clinic visits, a strategy purported to improve retention. These changes will be important as countries move to implement the revised 2015 WHO guidelines to initiate all HIV positive people onto ART regardless of their immune status.

Pre-referral Rectal Artesunate Treatment by Community-Based Treatment Providers in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania, and Uganda (Study 18): A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: If malaria patients who cannot be treated orally are several hours from facilities for injections, rectal artesunate prior to hospital referral can prevent death and disability. The goal is to reduce death from malaria by having rectal artesunate treatment available and used. How best to do this remains unknown. METHODS: Villages remote from a health facility were randomized to different community-based treatment providers trained to provide rectal artesunate in Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania, and Uganda. Prereferral rectal artesunate treatment was provided in 272 villages: 109 through community-based health workers (CHWs), 112 via trained mothers (MUMs), 25 via trained traditional healers (THs), and 26 through trained community-chosen personnel (COMs); episodes eligible for rectal artesunate were established through regular household surveys of febrile illnesses recording symptoms eligible for prereferral treatment. Differences in treatment coverage with rectal artesunate in children aged <5 years in MUM vs CHW (standard-of-care) villages were assessed using the odds ratio (OR); the predictive probability of treatment was derived from a logistic regression analysis, adjusting for heterogeneity between clusters (villages) using random effects. RESULTS: Over 19 months, 54 013 children had 102 504 febrile episodes, of which 32% (31 817 episodes) had symptoms eligible for prereferral therapy; 14% (4460) children received treatment. Episodes with altered consciousness, coma, or convulsions constituted 36.6% of all episodes in treated children. The overall OR of treatment between MUM vs CHW villages, adjusting for country, was 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-2.83; P = .005). Adjusting for heterogeneity, this translated into a 1.67 higher average probability of a child being treated in MUM vs CHW villages. Referral compliance was 81% and significantly higher with CHWs vs MUMs: 87% vs 82% (risk ratio [RR], 1.1 [95% CI, 1.0-1.1]; P < .0001). There were more deaths in the TH cluster than elsewhere (RR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.4-5.6]; P = .0040). CONCLUSIONS: Prereferral episodes were almost one-third of all febrile episodes. More than one-third of patients treated had convulsions, altered consciousness, or coma. Mothers were effective in treating patients, and achieved higher coverage than other providers. Treatment access was low. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ISRCTN58046240.

The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

BACKGROUND: Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites") conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%-77%), followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%-16%) compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%-62%), followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%). Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning.

Association of Medical Male Circumcision and Antiretroviral Therapy Scale-up With Community HIV Incidence in Rakai, Uganda.

IMPORTANCE: Medical male circumcision (MMC) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) are proven HIV prevention interventions, but there are limited data on the population-level effect of scale-up of these interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. Such evaluation is important for planning and resource allocation. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether increasing community MMC and ART coverage was associated with reduced community HIV incidence in Rakai District, Uganda. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Using person-level data from population-based surveys conducted from 1999 through 2013 in 45 rural Rakai communities, community-level ART and MMC coverage, sociodemographics, sexual behaviors, and HIV prevalence and incidence were estimated in 3 periods: prior to the availability of ART and MMC (1999-2004), during early availability of ART and MMC (2004-2007), and during mature program scale-up (2007-2013). EXPOSURES: Community MMC coverage in males and ART coverage in HIV-positive persons of the opposite sex based on self-reported MMC status and ART use. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for sex-specific community HIV incidence estimated using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: From 1999 through 2013, 44,688 persons participated in 1 or more surveys (mean age at the first survey, 24.6 years [range, 15-49]; female, 56.5%; mean survey participation rate, 92.6% [95% CI, 92.4%-92.7%]). Median community MMC coverage increased from 19% to 39%, and median community ART coverage rose from 0% to 21% in males and from 0% to 26% in females. Median community HIV incidence declined from 1.25 to 0.84 per 100 person-years in males, and from 1.25 to 0.99 per 100 person-years in females. Among males, each 10% increase in community MMC coverage was associated with an adjusted IRR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93). Comparing communities with MMC coverage more than 40% (mean male community incidence, 1.03 per 100 person-years) with communities with coverage of 10% or less (mean male incidence, 1.69 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.88). For each 10% increase in female self-reported ART coverage, there was no significant reduction in male HIV incidence (adjusted IRR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.81-1.13]). Comparing communities with female ART coverage more than 20% (mean male incidence, 0.87 per 100 person-years) to communities with female ART coverage of 20% or less (mean male incidence, 1.17 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.61-0.98). Neither MMC nor male ART coverage was associated with lower female community HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In Rakai, Uganda, increasing community MMC and female ART coverage was associated with lower community HIV incidence in males. If similar associations are found elsewhere, this would support further scale-up of MMC and ART for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa.

Understanding the socio-structural context of high HIV transmission in kasensero fishing community, South Western Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In Kasensero fishing community, home of the first recorded case of HIV in Uganda, HIV transmission remains high with an incidence of 4.3 and 3.1 per 100 person-years in women and men, respectively, and an HIV prevalence of 44 %, reaching up to 74 % among female sex workers. We explored the social contextual factors for the high HIV transmission at Kasensero to inform future policy and preventive interventions. METHODS: We conducted 20 in-depth interviews, including both HIV positive and HIV negative respondents, and 12 focus-group discussions involving a total of 92 respondents from the Kasensero fishing community from April-September 2014. Content analysis was performed to identify recurrent themes. RESULTS: Our findings suggest that the high HIV transmission in Kasensero is a complex function of eight themes including; positive/negative attitudes about HIV and combination HIV prevention such as the demand for services versus ART/circumcision disinhibition; HIV depository; Multiple partners; Frequent unprotected sex; Clothing; Parental behaviors; Pressure within the sex industry; and Cross generational sex. CONCLUSIONS: The current combination HIV prevention services by the RHSP need to be enhanced with more government involvement including ensuring sustainable supply of ART and circumcision services since they are reportedly highly demanded. Community involvement through the engagement of popular peers could also help in the campaign to change the HIV predisposing culture, misconceptions and risky social norms of the population. Social Context HIV Transmission Fishing Community.

The role of viral introductions in sustaining community-based HIV epidemics in rural Uganda: evidence from spatial clustering, phylogenetics, and egocentric transmission models.

BACKGROUND: It is often assumed that local sexual networks play a dominant role in HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to determine the extent to which continued HIV transmission in rural communities--home to two-thirds of the African population--is driven by intra-community sexual networks versus viral introductions from outside of communities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed the spatial dynamics of HIV transmission in rural Rakai District, Uganda, using data from a cohort of 14,594 individuals within 46 communities. We applied spatial clustering statistics, viral phylogenetics, and probabilistic transmission models to quantify the relative contribution of viral introductions into communities versus community- and household-based transmission to HIV incidence. Individuals living in households with HIV-incident (n = 189) or HIV-prevalent (n = 1,597) persons were 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7-3.7) times more likely to be HIV infected themselves compared to the population in general, but spatial clustering outside of households was relatively weak and was confined to distances <500 m. Phylogenetic analyses of gag and env genes suggest that chains of transmission frequently cross community boundaries. A total of 95 phylogenetic clusters were identified, of which 44% (42/95) were two individuals sharing a household. Among the remaining clusters, 72% (38/53) crossed community boundaries. Using the locations of self-reported sexual partners, we estimate that 39% (95% CI: 34%-42%) of new viral transmissions occur within stable household partnerships, and that among those infected by extra-household sexual partners, 62% (95% CI: 55%-70%) are infected by sexual partners from outside their community. These results rely on the representativeness of the sample and the quality of self-reported partnership data and may not reflect HIV transmission patterns outside of Rakai. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that HIV introductions into communities are common and account for a significant proportion of new HIV infections acquired outside of households in rural Uganda, though the extent to which this is true elsewhere in Africa remains unknown. Our results also suggest that HIV prevention efforts should be implemented at spatial scales broader than the community and should target key populations likely responsible for introductions into communities.

Effect of HIV infection on pregnancy-related mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: secondary analyses of pooled community-based data from the network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA).

BACKGROUND: Model-based estimates of the global proportions of maternal deaths that are in HIV-infected women range from 7% to 21%, and the effects of HIV on the risk of maternal death is highly uncertain. We used longitudinal data from the Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA) network to estimate the excess mortality associated with HIV during pregnancy and the post-partum period in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The ALPHA network pooled data gathered between June, 1989 and April, 2012 in six community-based studies in eastern and southern Africa with HIV serological surveillance and verbal-autopsy reporting. Deaths occurring during pregnancy and up to 42 days post partum were defined as pregnancy related. Pregnant or post-partum person-years were calculated for HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women, and HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected mortality rate ratios and HIV-attributable rates were compared between pregnant or post-partum women and women who were not pregnant or post partum. FINDINGS: 138,074 women aged 15-49 years contributed 636,213 person-years of observation. 49,568 women had 86,963 pregnancies. 6760 of these women died, 235 of them during pregnancy or the post-partum period. Mean prevalence of HIV infection across all person-years in the pooled data was 17.2% (95% CI 17.0-17.3), but 60 of 118 (50.8%) of the women of known HIV status who died during pregnancy or post partum were HIV infected. The mortality rate ratio of HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected women was 20.5 (18.9-22.4) in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 8.2 (5.7-11.8) in pregnant or post-partum women. Excess mortality attributable to HIV was 51.8 (47.8-53.8) per 1000 person-years in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 11.8 (8.4-15.3) per 1000 person-years in pregnant or post-partum women. INTERPRETATION: HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women had around eight times higher mortality than did their HIV-uninfected counterparts. On the basis of this estimate, we predict that roughly 24% of deaths in pregnant or post-partum women are attributable to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that safe motherhood programmes should pay special attention to the needs of HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Health Metrics Network (WHO).