Lagrangian particle tracking of a toxic dinoflagellate bloom within the Tampa Bay estuary.

A coastal risk assessment system simulates the basic physical mechanisms underlying contaminant transport in Tampa Bay. This risk assessment system, comprised of a three-dimensional numerical circulation model coupled to a Lagrangian particle tracking model, simulates the transport and dispersion of a toxic dinoflagellate bloom. Instantaneous velocity output from the circulation model drives the movement of particles, each representing a fraction of a K. brevis bloom, within the model grid cells. Hindcast simulations of the spatial distribution of the K. brevis bloom are presented and compared with water sample concentrations collected during the peak of the bloom. Probability calculations, herein called transport quotients, allow for rapid analysis of bay-wide K. brevis transport showing locations most likely to be impacted by the contaminant. Maps constructed from the transport quotients provide managers with a bay-wide snapshot of areas in Tampa Bay most at risk during a hazardous bloom event.

A coastal prediction system as an event response tool: particle tracking simulation of an anhydrous ammonia spill in Tampa Bay.

A coastal prediction system for Tampa Bay, comprised of a numerical circulation model and Lagrangian particle transport model, rapidly produces hindcast/forecast simulations that alert authorities to high impact areas following the introduction of hazardous material into the bay. The effectiveness of the prediction system as an event response tool is evaluated during an anhydrous ammonia spill. A week-long simulation predicts the trajectory of the material due to winds and currents. Physical transport of the model particles alternates from being tidally driven to being driven both by wind action and residual circulation. A forecast simulation showing particle distribution drove field sampling that resulted in the detection of a Pseudo-nitzschia bloom likely initiated from excess ammonium in the bay. An online component of the coastal prediction system is in development to better manage response and mitigation efforts for future hazardous material spills in Tampa Bay.