Making in silico predictive models for toxicology FAIR.

In silico predictive models for toxicology include quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) and physiologically based kinetic (PBK) approaches to predict physico-chemical and ADME properties, toxicological effects and internal exposure. Such models are used to fill data gaps as part of chemical risk assessment. There is a growing need to ensure in silico predictive models for toxicology are available for use and that they are reproducible. This paper describes how the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles, developed for data sharing, have been applied to in silico predictive models. In particular, this investigation has focussed on how the FAIR principles could be applied to improved regulatory acceptance of predictions from such models. Eighteen principles have been developed that cover all aspects of FAIR. It is intended that FAIRification of in silico predictive models for toxicology will increase their use and acceptance.

Determination of "fitness-for-purpose" of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict (eco-)toxicological endpoints for regulatory use.

In silico models are used to predict toxicity and molecular properties in chemical safety assessment, gaining widespread regulatory use under a number of legislations globally. This study has rationalised previously published criteria to evaluate quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) in terms of their uncertainty, variability and potential areas of bias, into ten assessment components, or higher level groupings. The components have been mapped onto specific regulatory uses (i.e. data gap filling for risk assessment, classification and labelling, and screening and prioritisation) identifying different levels of uncertainty that may be acceptable for each. Twelve published QSARs were evaluated using the components, such that their potential use could be identified. High uncertainty was commonly observed with the presentation of data, mechanistic interpretability, incorporation of toxicokinetics and the relevance of the data for regulatory purposes. The assessment components help to guide strategies that can be implemented to improve acceptability of QSARs through the reduction of uncertainties. It is anticipated that model developers could apply the assessment components from the model design phase (e.g. through problem formulation) through to their documentation and use. The application of the components provides the possibility to assess QSARs in a meaningful manner and demonstrate their fitness-for-purpose against pre-defined criteria.

A Systematic Review of Published Physiologically-based Kinetic Models and an Assessment of their Chemical Space Coverage.

Across multiple sectors, including food, cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries, there is a need to predict the potential effects of xenobiotics. These effects are determined by the intrinsic ability of the substance, or its derivatives, to interact with the biological system, and its concentration-time profile at the target site. Physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) models can predict organ-level concentration-time profiles, however, the models are time and resource intensive to generate de novo. Read-across is an approach used to reduce or replace animal testing, wherein information from a data-rich chemical is used to make predictions for a data-poor chemical. The recent increase in published PBK models presents the opportunity to use a read-across approach for PBK modelling, that is, to use PBK model information from one chemical to inform the development or evaluation of a PBK model for a similar chemical. Essential to this process, is identifying the chemicals for which a PBK model already exists. Herein, the results of a systematic review of existing PBK models, compliant with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) format, are presented. Model information, including species, sex, life-stage, route of administration, software platform used and the availability of model equations, was captured for 7541 PBK models. Chemical information (identifiers and physico-chemical properties) has also been recorded for 1150 unique chemicals associated with these models. This PBK model data set has been made readily accessible, as a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet, providing a valuable resource for those developing, using or evaluating PBK models in industry, academia and the regulatory sectors.

Quantitative adverse outcome pathway (qAOP) models for toxicity prediction.

The quantitative adverse outcome pathway (qAOP) concept is gaining interest due to its potential regulatory applications in chemical risk assessment. Even though an increasing number of qAOP models are being proposed as computational predictive tools, there is no framework to guide their development and assessment. As such, the objectives of this review were to: (i) analyse the definitions of qAOPs published in the scientific literature, (ii) define a set of common features of existing qAOP models derived from the published definitions, and (iii) identify and assess the existing published qAOP models and associated software tools. As a result, five probabilistic qAOPs and ten mechanistic qAOPs were evaluated against the common features. The review offers an overview of how the qAOP concept has advanced and how it can aid toxicity assessment in the future. Further efforts are required to achieve validation, harmonisation and regulatory acceptance of qAOP models.

A Review of In Silico Tools as Alternatives to Animal Testing: Principles, Resources and Applications.

Across the spectrum of industrial sectors, including pharmaceuticals, chemicals, personal care products, food additives and their associated regulatory agencies, there is a need to develop robust and reliable methods to reduce or replace animal testing. It is generally recognised that no single alternative method will be able to provide a one-to-one replacement for assays based on more complex toxicological endpoints. Hence, information from a combination of techniques is required. A greater understanding of the time and concentration-dependent mechanisms, underlying the interactions between chemicals and biological systems, and the sequence of events that can lead to apical effects, will help to move forward the science of reducing and replacing animal experiments. In silico modelling, in vitro assays, high-throughput screening, organ-on-a-chip technology, omics and mathematical biology, can provide complementary information to develop a complete picture of the potential response of an organism to a chemical stressor. Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) and systems biology frameworks enable relevant information from diverse sources to be logically integrated. While individual researchers do not need to be experts across all disciplines, it is useful to have a fundamental understanding of what other areas of science have to offer, and how knowledge can be integrated with other disciplines. The purpose of this review is to provide those who are unfamiliar with predictive in silico tools, with a fundamental understanding of the underlying theory. Current applications, software, barriers to acceptance, new developments and the use of integrated approaches are all discussed, with additional resources being signposted for each of the topics.

Development and analysis of an adverse outcome pathway network for human neurotoxicity.

An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) network is an attempt to represent the complexity of systems toxicology. This study illustrates how an AOP network can be derived and analysed in terms of its topological features to guide research and support chemical risk assessment. A four-step workflow describing general design principles and applied design principles was established and implemented. An AOP network linking nine linear AOPs was mapped and made available in AOPXplorer. The resultant AOP network was modelled and analysed in terms of its topological features, including level of degree, eccentricity and betweenness centrality. Several well-connected KEs were identified, and cell injury/death was established as the most hyperlinked KE across the network. The derived network expands the utility of linear AOPs to better understand signalling pathways involved in developmental and adult/ageing neurotoxicity. The results provide a solid basis to guide the development of in vitro test method batteries, as well as further quantitative modelling of key events (KEs) and key event relationships (KERs) in the AOP network, with an eventual aim to support hazard characterisation and chemical risk assessment.

Assessment and Reproducibility of Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship Models by the Nonexpert.

Model reliability is generally assessed and reported as an intrinsic component of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) publications; it can be evaluated using defined quality criteria such as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) principles for the validation of QSARs. However, less emphasis is afforded to the assessment of model reproducibility, particularly by users who may wish to use model outcomes for decision making, but who are not QSAR experts. In this study we identified a range of QSARs in the area of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (ADME) prediction and assessed their adherence to the OECD principles, as well as investigating their reproducibility by scientists without expertise in QSAR. Here, 85 papers were reviewed, reporting over 80 models for 31 ADME-related endpoints. Of these, 12 models were identified that fulfilled at least 4 of the 5 OECD principles and 3 of these 12 could be readily reproduced. Published QSAR models should aim to meet a standard level of quality and be clearly communicated, ensuring their reproducibility, to progress the uptake of the models in both research and regulatory landscapes. A pragmatic workflow for implementing published QSAR models and recommendations to modellers, for publishing models with greater usability, are presented herein.

Validation of a Fragment-Based Profiler for Thiol Reactivity for the Prediction of Toxicity: Skin Sensitization and Tetrahymena pyriformis.

This study outlines the use of a recently developed fragment-based thiol reactivity profiler for Michael acceptors to predict toxicity toward Tetrahymena pyriformis and skin sensitization potency as determined in the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA). The results showed that the calculated reactivity parameter from the profiler, -log RC50(calc), was capable of predicting toxicity for both end points with excellent statistics. However, the study highlighted the importance of a well-defined applicability domain for each end point. In terms of Tetrahymena pyriformis, this domain was defined in terms of how fast or slowly a given Michael acceptor reacts with thiol leading to two separate quantitative structure-activity models. The first, for fast reacting chemicals required only -log RC50(calc) as a descriptor, while the second required the addition of a descriptor for hydrophobicity. Modeling of the LLNA required only a single descriptor, -log RC50(calc), enabling potency to be predicted. The applicability domain excluded chemicals capable of undergoing polymerization and those that were predicted to be volatile. The modeling results for both end points, using the -log RC50(calc) value from the profiler, were in keeping with previously published studies that have utilized experimentally determined measurements of reactivity. These results demonstrate that the output from the fragment-based thiol reactivity profiler can be used to develop quantitative structure-activity relationship models where reactivity toward thiol is a driver of toxicity.

Turbocharging Matched Molecular Pair Analysis: Optimizing the Identification and Analysis of Pairs.

We have applied the two most commonly used methods for automatic matched pair identification, obtained the optimum settings, and discovered that the two methods are synergistic. A turbocharging approach to matched pair analysis is advocated in which a first round (a conservative categorical approach that uses an analogy with coin flips, heads corresponding to an increase in a measured property, tails to a decrease, and a biased coin to a structural change that reliably causes a change in that property) provides the settings for a second round (which uses the magnitude of the change in properties). Increased chemical specificity allows reliable knowledge to be extracted from smaller sets of pairs, and an assay-specific upper limit can be placed on the number of pairs required before adequate sampling of variability has been achieved.