Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study.

The Financial Implications of Pancreatic Surgery: The Hospital Is the Big Winner, Not the Surgeon!

Background: High-volume pancreatic surgery centers require a significant investment in expertise, time, and resources to achieve optimal patient outcomes. A detailed understanding of the economics of major pancreatic surgery is limited among many clinicians and hospital administrators. A greater consideration of these financial aspects may in fact have implications for enhancing clinical care and for a broader sustainability of high-volume pancreatic surgery programs. Methods: In this retrospective observational study, patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), total pancreatectomy, or distal pancreatectomy at one academic medical center during the fiscal year 2021 were evaluated. Detailed hospital charges and professional fees were obtained for patients using the Qlik perioperative database. Clinical data for the study cohort were gathered from a prospectively maintained, IRB-approved pancreatic surgery database. Charges for the 91-day perioperative period were included. A P < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study period, 159 evaluable patients underwent 1 of 3 designated pancreatic resections included in the analysis. Ninety-seven patients (61%) were diagnosed with adenocarcinoma and 70% (n = 110) underwent PD. The total charges (combined professional and hospital charges) for the cohort encompassing the entire perioperative period were $20,661,759. The median charge per patient was $130,306 (interquartile range [IQR], $34,534). The median direct cost of care was $23,219 (IQR, $6321) and the median contribution margin per case was $10,092 (IQR, $22,949). The median surgeon professional fee charges were $7700 per patient (IQR, $1296) as compared to $3453 (IQR, $1,144) for professional fee receipts (45% of the surgeon charge). The differences between the professional fee charges and receipts per patient were also considerable for other health care professionals such as anesthesiologists ($4945 charges vs $1406 receipts [28%]) and pathologists ($3035 charges vs $680 receipts [22%]). The surgeon professional fees were only 6% of the total charges, while the professional fees for anesthesiology and pathology were 4% and 2% of the total charges, respectively. Supply charges were 3% of the total charges. Longer operative time was correlated with increased hospital and anesthesia charges, without a significant increase in surgeon charges (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P = 0.2, respectively). Male sex, diabetes, and low serum albumin correlated with greater total hospital charges (P = 0.01, P = 0.01, and P = 0.03, respectively). Conclusions: The role of the surgeon in the perioperative clinical care of major pancreatic resection patients is crucial and important and is by no means limited to the operative day. Nevertheless, in the context of the current US health care system, the reimbursement to the surgeon in the form of professional fees is a relatively small fraction of the total health care receipts for these patients. This imbalance necessitates a substantial financial partnership between hospitals and their pancreatic surgery units to ensure the long-term viability of these programs.

SNAPSHOT USA 2020: A second coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Managing wildlife populations in the face of global change requires regular data on the abundance and distribution of wild animals, but acquiring these over appropriate spatial scales in a sustainable way has proven challenging. Here we present the data from Snapshot USA 2020, a second annual national mammal survey of the USA. This project involved 152 scientists setting camera traps in a standardized protocol at 1485 locations across 103 arrays in 43 states for a total of 52,710 trap-nights of survey effort. Most (58) of these arrays were also sampled during the same months (September and October) in 2019, providing a direct comparison of animal populations in 2 years that includes data from both during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. All data were managed by the eMammal system, with all species identifications checked by at least two reviewers. In total, we recorded 117,415 detections of 78 species of wild mammals, 9236 detections of at least 43 species of birds, 15,851 detections of six domestic animals and 23,825 detections of humans or their vehicles. Spatial differences across arrays explained more variation in the relative abundance than temporal variation across years for all 38 species modeled, although there are examples of significant site-level differences among years for many species. Temporal results show how species allocate their time and can be used to study species interactions, including between humans and wildlife. These data provide a snapshot of the mammal community of the USA for 2020 and will be useful for exploring the drivers of spatial and temporal changes in relative abundance and distribution, and the impacts of species interactions on daily activity patterns. There are no copyright restrictions, and please cite this paper when using these data, or a subset of these data, for publication.

SNAPSHOT USA 2019: a coordinated national camera trap survey of the United States.

With the accelerating pace of global change, it is imperative that we obtain rapid inventories of the status and distribution of wildlife for ecological inferences and conservation planning. To address this challenge, we launched the SNAPSHOT USA project, a collaborative survey of terrestrial wildlife populations using camera traps across the United States. For our first annual survey, we compiled data across all 50 states during a 14-week period (17 August-24 November of 2019). We sampled wildlife at 1,509 camera trap sites from 110 camera trap arrays covering 12 different ecoregions across four development zones. This effort resulted in 166,036 unique detections of 83 species of mammals and 17 species of birds. All images were processed through the Smithsonian's eMammal camera trap data repository and included an expert review phase to ensure taxonomic accuracy of data, resulting in each picture being reviewed at least twice. The results represent a timely and standardized camera trap survey of the United States. All of the 2019 survey data are made available herein. We are currently repeating surveys in fall 2020, opening up the opportunity to other institutions and cooperators to expand coverage of all the urban-wild gradients and ecophysiographic regions of the country. Future data will be available as the database is updated at eMammal.si.edu/snapshot-usa, as will future data paper submissions. These data will be useful for local and macroecological research including the examination of community assembly, effects of environmental and anthropogenic landscape variables, effects of fragmentation and extinction debt dynamics, as well as species-specific population dynamics and conservation action plans. There are no copyright restrictions; please cite this paper when using the data for publication.

Correction: Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159909.].

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Diversification and gene flow in nascent lineages of island and mainland North American tree squirrels (Tamiasciurus).

Pleistocene climate cycles and glaciations had profound impacts on taxon diversification in the Boreal Forest Biome. Using population genetic analyses with multilocus data, we examined diversification, isolation, and hybridization in two sibling species of tree squirrels (Tamiasciurus douglasii and Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) with special attention to the geographically and genetically enigmatic population of T. hudsonicus on Vancouver Island, Canada. The two species differentiated only about 500,000 years ago, in the Late Pleistocene. The island population is phylogenetically nested within T. hudsonicus according to our nuclear analysis but within T. douglasii according to mitochondrial DNA. This conflict is more likely due to historical hybridization than to incomplete lineage sorting, and it appears that bidirectional gene flow occurred between the island population and both species on the mainland. This interpretation of our genetic analyses is consistent with our bioclimatic modeling, which demonstrates that both species were able to occupy this region throughout the Late Pleistocene. The divergence of the island population 40,000 years ago suggests that tree squirrels persisted in a refugium on Vancouver Island at the last glacial maximum, 20,000 years ago. Our observations demonstrate how Pleistocene climate change and habitat shifts have created incipient divergence in the presence of gene flow. Sequence data have been archived in GenBank­accession numbers: KF882736­KF885216.

Spread of white-nose syndrome on a network regulated by geography and climate.

Wildlife and plant diseases can reduce biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and threaten human health. Emerging pathogens have displayed a variety of spatial spread patterns due to differences in host ecology, including diffusive spread from an epicentre (West Nile virus), jump dispersal on a network (foot-and-mouth disease), or a combination of these (Sudden oak death). White-nose syndrome is a highly pathogenic infectious disease of bats currently spreading across North America. Understanding how bat ecology influences this spread is crucial to management of infected and vulnerable populations. Here we show that white-nose syndrome spread is not diffusive but rather mediated by patchily distributed habitat and large-scale gradients in winter climate. Simulations predict rapid expansion and infection of most counties with caves in the contiguous United States by winter 2105-2106. Our findings show the unique pattern of white-nose syndrome spread corresponds to ecological traits of the host and suggest hypotheses for transmission mechanisms acting at the local scale.

Species interactions during diversification and community assembly in an island radiation of shrews.

BACKGROUND: Closely related, ecologically similar species often have adjacent distributions, suggesting competitive exclusion may contribute to the structure of some natural communities. In systems such as island archipelagos, where speciation is often tightly associated with dispersal over oceanic barriers, competitive exclusion may prevent population establishment following inter-island dispersal and subsequent cladogenesis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a combination of tools, we test the hypothesis that the distributions of shrew (Crocidura) species in the Philippines are the result of competitive exclusion preventing secondary invasion of occupied islands. We first compare ecological niche models between two widespread, allopatric species and find statistical support for their ecological similarity, implying that competition for habitat between these species is possible. We then examine dispersion patterns among sympatric species and find some signal for overdispersion of body size, but not for phylogenetic branch length. Finally, we simulate the process of inter-island colonization under a stochastic model of dispersal lacking ecological forces. Results are dependent on the geographic scope and colonization probability employed. However, some combinations suggest that the number of inter-island dispersal events necessary to populate the archipelago may be much higher than the minimum number of colonization events necessary to explain current estimates of species richness and phylogenetic relationships. If our model is appropriate, these results imply that alternative factors, such as competitive exclusion, may have influenced the process of inter-island colonization and subsequent cladogenesis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We interpret the combined results as providing tenuous evidence that similarity in body size may prevent co-occurrence in Philippine shrews and that competitive exclusion among ecologically similar species, rather than an inability to disperse among islands, may have limited diversification in this group, and, possibly other clades endemic to island archipelagos.

Range-wide determinants of plague distribution in North America.

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is established across western North America, and yet little is known of what determines the broad-scale dimensions of its overall range. We tested whether its North American distribution represents a composite of individual host-plague associations (the "Host Niche Hypothesis"), or whether mammal hosts become infected only at sites overlapping ecological conditions appropriate for plague transmission and maintenance (the "Plague Niche Hypothesis"). We took advantage of a novel data set summarizing plague records in wild mammals newly digitized from paper-based records at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop range-wide tests of ecological niche similarity between mammal host niches and plague-infected host niches. Results indicate that plague infections occur under circumstances distinct from the broader ecological distribution of hosts, and that plague-infected niches are similar among hosts; hence, evidence coincides with the predictions of the Plague Niche Hypothesis, and contrasts with those of the Host Niche Hypothesis. The "plague niche" is likely driven by ecological requirements of vector flea species.