Clinical, prognostic and pathophysiological implications of MOG-IgG detection in the CSF: the importance of intrathecal MOG-IgG synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrospinal fluid myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein IgG (CSF MOG-IgG) are found in a proportion of patients with MOG antibody-associated disorder (MOGAD) and have been associated with severe disease presentations. However, most studies did not systematically investigate the role of MOG-IgG intrathecal synthesis (ITS). METHODS: We retrospectively studied 960 consecutive patients with paired serum and CSF samples screened for MOG-IgG using a live cell-based assays. MOG-IgG-specific antibody index (AIMOG) was systematically calculated using serum and CSF titres to assess MOG-IgG ITS, and clinical features were compared between MOG-IgG CSF+/CSF- and ITS+/ITS- patients. RESULTS: MOG-IgG were found in 55/960 patients (5.7%; serum+/CSF-: 58.2%, serum+/CSF+: 34.5%; serum-/CSF+: 7.3%). Serum/CSF MOG-IgG titres showed a moderate correlation in patients without ITS (ρ=0.47 (CI 0.18 to 0.68), p<0.001), but not in those with ITS (ρ=0.14 (CI -0.46 to -0.65), p=0.65). There were no clinical-paraclinical differences between MOG-IgG CSF+ vs CSF- patients. Conversely, patients with MOG-IgG ITS showed pyramidal symptoms (73% vs 32%, p=0.03), spinal cord involvement (82% vs 39%, p=0.02) and severe outcome at follow-up (36% vs 5%, p=0.02) more frequently than those without MOG-IgG ITS. A multivariate logistic regression model indicated that MOG-IgG ITS was an independent predictor of a poor outcome (OR: 14.93 (CI 1.40 to 19.1); p=0.03). AIMOG correlated with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores at disease nadir and at last follow-up (p=0.02 and p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Consistently with physiopathology, MOG-IgG ITS is a promising prognostic factor in MOGAD, and its calculation could enhance the clinical relevance of CSF MOG-IgG testing, making a case for its introduction in clinical practice.

Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

Effectiveness of cladribine compared to fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Comparisons between cladribine and other potent immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness of cladribine against fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting MS. METHODS: Patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with cladribine, fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab or alemtuzumab were identified in the global MSBase cohort and two additional UK centres. Patients were followed for ⩾6/12 and had ⩾3 in-person disability assessments. Patients were matched using propensity score. Four pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates (ARRs) and disability outcomes. RESULTS: The eligible cohorts consisted of 853 (fingolimod), 464 (natalizumab), 1131 (ocrelizumab), 123 (alemtuzumab) or 493 (cladribine) patients. Cladribine was associated with a lower ARR than fingolimod (0.07 vs. 0.12, p = 0.006) and a higher ARR than natalizumab (0.10 vs. 0.06, p = 0.03), ocrelizumab (0.09 vs. 0.05, p = 0.008) and alemtuzumab (0.17 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001). Compared to cladribine, the risk of disability worsening did not differ in patients treated with fingolimod (hazard ratio (HR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-2.47) or alemtuzumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.26-2.07), but was lower for patients treated with natalizumab (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94) and ocrelizumab (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78). There was no evidence for a difference in disability improvement. CONCLUSION: Cladribine is an effective therapy that can be viewed as a step up in effectiveness from fingolimod, but is less effective than the most potent intravenous MS therapies.

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable.

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Comparing Natural History of Early and Late Onset Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to describe and compare disease course and prognosis of early (ie, disease onset before age 11 years) and late (ie, disease onset after age 11 years) onset pediatric multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Prospectively collected clinical information from Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register of 1993 pediatric multiple sclerosis patients, of whom 172 had early onset, was analyzed. Cox models adjusted for sex, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale score, and disease-modifying treatments and stratified for diagnostic criteria adopted (Poser vs McDonald) were used to assess the risk of reaching irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale scores of 3, 4, and 6, and conversion to secondary progressive phenotype in early versus late onset pediatric patients. Prognostic factors were also evaluated. RESULTS: A greater proportion of males, isolated brainstem involvement, and longer time interval between first and second clinical episode were observed in early versus late onset pediatric patients. Compared to late onset, early onset pediatric patients took longer from disease onset to convert to secondary progressive phenotype and to reach all disability milestones. Recovery from first demyelinating event, time to first relapse, annualized relapse rate during the first 3 years of disease, and disease-modifying treatment exposure were independent predictors for long-term disability in early onset pediatric patients. In late onset pediatric patients, isolated optic neuritis, multifocal symptoms, and progressive course at disease onset were additional predictors for long-term disability. INTERPRETATION: These findings point toward the existence of a different natural history in early versus late onset pediatric multiple sclerosis patients. ANN NEUROL 2022;91:483-495.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis after early worsening of disability.

BACKGROUND: Whether progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) heralds earlier onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and more rapid accumulation of disability during SPMS remains to be determined. We investigated the association between early PIRA, relapse-associated worsening (RAW) of disability and time to SPMS, subsequent disability progression and their response to therapy. METHODS: This observational cohort study included patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) from the MSBase international registry across 146 centres and 39 countries. Associations between the number of PIRA and RAW during early multiple sclerosis (MS) (the initial 5 years of MS onset) were analysed with respect to: time to SPMS using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for disease characteristics; and disability progression during SPMS, calculated as the change of Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scores over time, using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: 10 692 patients met the inclusion criteria: 3125 (29%) were men and the mean MS onset age was 32.2 years. A higher number of early PIRA (HR=1.50, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.76, p<0.001) and RAW (HR=2.53, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.85, p<0.001) signalled a higher risk of SPMS. A higher proportion of early disease-modifying therapy exposure (per 10%) reduced the effect of early RAW (HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.00, p=0.041) but not PIRA (HR=0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.05, p=0.49) on SPMS risk. No association between early PIRA/RAW and disability progression during SPMS was found. CONCLUSIONS: Early disability increase during RRMS is associated with a greater risk of SPMS but not the rate of disability progression during SPMS. The deterioration associated with early relapses represents a potentially treatable risk factor of SPMS. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12605000455662).

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Progression is independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis: a real-life cohort study.

Disability accrual in multiple sclerosis may occur as relapse-associated worsening or progression independent of relapse activity. The role of progression independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis is yet to be established. The objective of this multicentre, observational, retrospective cohort study was to investigate the contribution of relapse-associated worsening and progression independent of relapse activity to confirmed disability accumulation in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, assessed within one year from onset and with follow-up ≥5 years (n = 5169). Data were extracted from the Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register. Confirmed disability accumulation was defined by an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed at 6 months, and classified per temporal association with relapses. Factors associated with progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Over a follow-up period of 11.5 ± 5.5 years, progression independent of relapse activity occurred in 1427 (27.6%) and relapse-associated worsening in 922 (17.8%) patients. Progression independent of relapse activity was associated with older age at baseline [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.25, P < 0.001], having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.44; 95% CI 1.28-1.61, P < 0.001), longer disease duration at baseline (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.28-1.90, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.88-0.96, P < 0.001) and lower number of relapses before the event (HR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.73-0.80, P < 0.001). Relapse-associated worsening was associated with younger age at baseline (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.81-0.93, P < 0.001), having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.35-1.79, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99, P = 0.017) and a higher number of relapses before the event (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07, P < 0.001). Longer exposure to disease-modifying drugs was associated with a lower risk of both progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening (P < 0.001). This study provides evidence that in an early relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis cohort, progression independent of relapse activity was an important contributor to confirmed disability accumulation. Our findings indicate that insidious progression appears even in the earliest phases of the disease, suggesting that inflammation and neurodegeneration can represent a single disease continuum, in which age is one of the main determinants of disease phenomenology.

Unmet needs and gaps in the identification of secondary progression in multiple sclerosis: a Southern Italy healthcare professionals' perspective.

OBJECTIVE: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease with different clinical courses and a tendency to worsening. The relapsing-remitting MS presents acute onset and relapses of neurological symptoms, followed by their remission. This form can convert to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) with irreversible neurological worsening and disability. The identification of signs, symptoms, markers of progression, and strategies to manage MS patients is mandatory to allow early identification of those at higher risk of conversion to SPMS, for prompt intervention to cope with the progression of the disease. METHODS: A panel of Italian experts from Southern Italy have reviewed the current knowledge on MS and its management and identified the crucial tools for SPMS recognition. RESULTS: More effective communication between patients and clinicians should be established, with the support of digital tools. Moreover, the improvement in the clinical use of biomarkers for progression (cellular structures and tissue organization, such as neurofilaments and chitinase 3-like 1, axonal and neurons density) and of instrumental analyses for recognition of whole-brain atrophy, chronic active lesions, spinal cord lesions and atrophy, and the improvement the combination of the Expanded Disability Status Scale and the evaluation of cognitive dysfunction are discussed. CONCLUSION: Given the availability of a pharmacological option, adequate education both for patients, regarding the evolution of the disease and the specific treatment, and for professionals, to allow more effective and sensitive communication and the best use of diagnostic and management tools, could represent a strategy to improve patient management and their quality of life.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Two-year macular volume assessment in multiple sclerosis patients treated with fingolimod.

BACKGROUND: Fingolimod (FNG) is associated with the development of symptomatic macular edema (ME) in a small subset of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. By using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), an increase in the total macular volume (TMV) was rarely detected during the first months of treatment. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess whether FNG treatment leads to long-term macular changes in a real-life setting. METHODS: Sixty RRMS patients starting FNG, according to therapeutic indication, were enrolled at three Italian MS centers and followed for 2 years. RESULTS: The mean TMV did not change between baseline and the follow-up. No patients experienced visual acuity drop during the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Initiation of FNG in MS is associated with a modest, not significant, increase in macular volume followed by no further significant changes over 2 years, highlighting the good safety profile of such treatment in MS.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis in the province of Catania. A geo-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: An increasing incidence of MS in the city of Catania was reported during 1975-2004, with a higher incidence along the south-eastern flank of the Mt.Etna. We evaluated the incidence of MS in the entire province of Catania during 2005-2015 and the spatial distribution of MS-cases using a cluster analysis. METHODS: Patients were considered as incident MS-cases if they fulfilled the revised McDonald criteria for MS during 2005-2015 and were residents in the province of Catania at the time of disease onset. Cluster analysis was performed using both LISA and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Residence address at disease onset was considered for each case. Communalities were assessed considering the centroid of their inhabited area. RESULTS: A total of 973 MS-cases were identified. Mean annual incidence risk was 8.2/100,000 person-years (95%CI 7.7-8.7), significantly higher among women (10.5/100,000 versus 5.7/100,000). LISA identified a spatial aggregation of MS-cases in the eastern side of the province of Catania and Kulldorff's statistics confirmed the existence of a statistically significant spatial cluster in this area (SIR 1.23,95%CI 1.08-1.23, p-value 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms a high incidence of MS in the province of Catania and the presence of a spatial cluster along the eastern side of the province. This area is considered the most exposed to volcanogenic ashes due to the prevailing westerly to north-westerly trade winds. Even if such distribution could be related with a greater exposure to volcanogenic metals, further studies are needed to explore possible alternative hypotheses.

Prevalence and Incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in the City of Biancavilla.

BACKGROUND: It is common that the epidemiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies with geography and ethnicity. Recent studies show a continuous growth of incidence and prevalence in Sicily, despite the controversial "latitude gradient theory." OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study is to ascertain incidence and prevalence rates of MS in the city of Biancavilla, Sicily, Southern Italy. METHOD: Case ascertainment approach and a clinical database collecting data of MS cases to Biancavilla, according to McDonald 2011 and Thompson 2018 criteria, from 1992 to 2018, have been used to the study. We further collected information regarding the familiarity of patients with Mesothelioma, highly incident in this geographic area. RESULTS: The results showed an increase of the mean annual incidence for the period 2012-2018 (16.8/100,000) compared to 1992-1996 (4.5/100,000), and a standardized incidence ratio of 1.41 (95% CI 0.74-2.45). On December 31, 2018, 70 patients suffering from definite MS and living in Biancavilla yielded a crude prevalence of 292.3 per 100,000 (198.2/100,000 for men; 380.7/100,000 for women) with a standardized morbidity ratio of 2.3 (95% CI 1.8-2.9). CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirmed Biancavilla is an area at high risk for MS, ascribable to increased survival, improved ascertainment, or maybe related to a genetic or environmental risk. At the time, any relation with mesothelioma was excluded.

Prognostic indicators in pediatric clinically isolated syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To assess prognostic factors for a second clinical attack and a first disability-worsening event in pediatric clinically isolated syndrome (pCIS) suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. METHODS: A cohort of 770 pCIS patients was followed up for at least 10 years. Cox proportional hazard models and Recursive Partitioning and Amalgamation (RECPAM) tree-regression were used to analyze data. RESULTS: In pCIS, female sex and a multifocal onset were risk factors for a second clinical attack (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28, 1.06-1.55; 1.42, 1.10-1.84, respectively), whereas disease-modifying drug (DMD) exposure reduced this risk (HR, 95% CI = 0.75, 0.60-0.95). After pediatric onset MS (POMS) diagnosis, age at onset younger than 15 years and DMD exposure decreased the risk of a first Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)-worsening event (HR, 95% CI = 0.59, 0.42-0.83; 0.75, 0.71-0.80, respectively), whereas the occurrence of relapse increased this risk (HR, 95% CI = 5.08, 3.46-7.46). An exploratory RECPAM analysis highlighted a significantly higher incidence of a first EDSS-worsening event in patients with multifocal or isolated spinal cord or optic neuritis involvement at onset in comparison to those with an isolated supratentorial or brainstem syndrome. A Cox regression model including RECPAM classes confirmed DMD exposure as the most protective factor against EDSS-worsening events and relapses as the most important risk factor for attaining EDSS worsening. INTERPRETATION: This work represents a step forward in identifying predictors of unfavorable course in pCIS and POMS and supports a protective effect of early DMD treatment in preventing MS development and disability accumulation in this population. Ann Neurol 2017;81:729-739.

Cladribine effects on patient-reported outcomes and their clinical and biometric correlates in highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis at first switch: the observational, multicenter, prospective, phase IV CLADFIT-MS study.

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are essential for understanding the effects of MS and its treatments on patients' lives; they play an important role in multiple sclerosis (MS) research and practice. We present the protocol for an observational study to prospectively assess the effect of cladribine tablets on PROs and their correlation to disability and physical activity in adults with highly active relapsing MS switching from a first disease modifying drug (DMD) to cladribine tablets in routine clinical practice at study sites in Italy. The primary objective will be to evaluate changes from baseline in the impact of highly active MS on self-assessed physical functioning 52 weeks after the switch to cladribine tablets using the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale-29 (MSIS-29). Secondary objectives will include self-assessed psychological impact of highly active MS in daily life and general health after the switch to cladribine tablets as well as changes in cognitive function, anxiety, and depression symptoms. Additional PRO measures will include the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), the EuroQoL 5-Dimension 5-Level (EQ-5D-5L), the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire: Multiple Sclerosis (WPAI:MS), and the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS). Wearable devices will acquire activity data (step counts, walking speed, time asleep, and energy expenditure). Additional clinical, radiological, and laboratory data will be collected when available during routine management. The findings will complement data from controlled trials by providing insight from daily clinical practice into the effect of cladribine tablets on the patient's experience and self-assessed impact of treatment on daily life.

Effectiveness of Disease-Modifying Treatment on Spinal Cord Lesion Formation in Relapse-Onset Multiple Sclerosis: An MSBase Registry Study.

BACKGROUND: Spinal cord lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS) have considerable impact on disability. High-efficacy disease-modifying treatments (hDMTs) are associated with greater reduction of relapses and new brain lesions compared to low-efficacy treatments (lDMTs). Knowledge on the impact of DMTs on cord lesion formation is limited as these outcome measures were not included in MS treatment trials. This study aims to investigate whether hDMTs reduce the formation of cord lesions more effectively than lDMTs. METHODS: Patients with relapse-onset MS, a cord magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) within 6 months before/after initiation of their first DMT and ≥1 cord MRI at follow-up (interval > 6 months) were extracted from the MSBase registry (ACTRN12605000455662). Patients treated with hDMTs ≥90% or lDMTs ≥90% of follow-up duration were considered the hDMT and lDMT groups, respectively. Matching was performed using propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazards of new cord lesions, brain lesions and relapses. RESULTS: Ninety-four and 783 satisfied hDMT and lDMT group criteria, respectively. Seventy-seven hDMT patients were matched to 184 lDMT patients. In the hDMT group there was no evidence of reduction of new cord lesions (hazard ratio [HR] 0.99 [95% CI 0.51, 1.92], p = 0.97), while there were fewer new brain lesions (HR 0.22 [95% CI 0.10, 0.49], p < 0.001) and fewer relapses (HR 0.45 [95% CI 0.28, 0.72], p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: A potential discrepancy exists in the effect of hDMTs over lDMTs in preventing spinal cord lesions versus brain lesions and relapses. While hDMTs provided a significant reduction for the latter when compared to lDMTs, there was no significant reduction in new spinal cord lesions.

Predicted Expenditure for Prescription Drugs for Multiple Sclerosis in the Italian Market Between 2023 and 2028: Results of the Oracle Project.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028. METHODS: A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA® real-world data, while input estimation for the 5-year forecast was integrated with analog analyses and the insights of clinicians and former payers. RESULTS: The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices. CONCLUSION: Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.