SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada, January 2020-January 2022.

We estimated COVID-19 transmission potential and case burden by variant type in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada, during January 23, 2020-January 27, 2022; we also estimated the effectiveness of public health interventions to reduce transmission. We estimated time-varying reproduction number (Rt) over 7-day sliding windows and nonoverlapping time-windows determined by timing of policy changes. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for each variant and compared rates to determine differences in burden among provinces. Rt corresponding with emergence of the Delta variant increased in all 3 provinces; British Columbia had the largest increase, 43.85% (95% credible interval [CrI] 40.71%-46.84%). Across the study period, IRR was highest for Omicron (8.74 [95% CrI 8.71-8.77]) and burden highest in Alberta (IRR 1.80 [95% CrI 1.79-1.81]). Initiating public health interventions was associated with lower Rt and relaxing restrictions and emergence of new variants associated with increases in Rt.

Changes in physical activity and risk of ischemic stroke: The ARIC study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding the impact of changes in physical activity (PA) over time on ischemic stroke risk. Exploring this understudied area could help improve stroke prevention strategies and promote PA during the lifespan. METHODS: We evaluated 11,089 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) participants recruited in 1987-1989 who completed Visit 3 (1993-1995). We classified PA as meeting recommendations, not meeting recommendations, or no PA. Categories of increased, decreased, stable high, and stable low PA and a continuous PA variable were also evaluated. Crude and adjusted Cox regression models were used to characterize the association of 6-year changes in PA and ischemic stroke risk. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 60 years. During a median of 21 years, 762 ischemic stroke events occurred. Compared to the participants with recommended PA at both visits, those with no PA had 46% higher hazards of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17, 1.82)), and those with recommended PA at Visit 1 and no PA at Visit 3 also had 37% higher hazards (HR = 1.37 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.83)). Participants who increased their PA from Visit 1 to Visit 3 had 23% lower hazard than those with stable low PA at both visits (HR = 0.77 (95% CI = 0.63, 0.94)), while those who decreased their PA had 25% higher hazards compared to those with stable high PA at both visits (HR = 1.25 (95% CI = 1.01, 1.54)). CONCLUSION: Physical inactivity during midlife increases ischemic stroke risk, while meeting PA recommendations reduces it.

Crossover Trends in Current Cigarette Smoking Between Racial and Ethnic Groups of US Adolescents Aged 12-19 Years Old, 1999-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the racial difference and trends in cigarette smoking among adolescents from 1999 to 2018. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 10,760 adolescents aged 12-19 who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), 1999-2018. Current tobacco smoking (CTS) was defined as participants with serum cotinine ≥10 ng/mL. Adjusted biennial prevalence ratios (abiPR: the ratio associated with a two-year increase in time) were estimated. RESULTS: Diverging trends in CTS prevalence were revealed in adolescents. The steepest decrease occurred in Hispanics aged 12-17, with 15% declining every two calendar years [abiPR = 0.85(0.77, 0.94)]. The sharpest increase occurred with Blacks aged 18-19 years [abiPR = 1.06(0.99, 1.14)]. A crossover of prevalence trend between Blacks and Whites occurred in adolescents aged 18-19 years old due to the diverging trends. The average CTS prevalence was significantly higher in Whites than in Blacks in the early [(1999-2008, 13.65% (11.85%, 15.46%) vs. 8.80% (7.55%, 10.04%)], but Blacks had a higher average in recent years [(2009-2018, 8.32% (6.53%, 10.12%) vs. 7.77% (5.86%, 9.68%)]. For adolescents aged 18-19 years, the survey cycles or calendar years linearly explained 71% of the variations in the prevalence for Hispanics, 60% for Whites, but only 1% for Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: A crossover in the trend of current tobacco smoking occurred between 1999 and 2018 due to an increase in prevalence among Black adolescents and a significant decrease in prevalence among other racial groups.

The Diverging Trend in Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke Among US Children.

OBJECTIVE: Environmental tobacco smoke exposure (ETSE) was race/ethnicity-specific, but how the race/ethnicity-specific ETSE has changed over time, diverging or converging, remains unclear. We examined ETSE trends by race/ethnicity in US children aged 3-11 years. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 9678 children who participated in the biennial National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, 1999-2018. ETSE was defined as serum cotinine ≥ 0.05 ng/ml, with ≥ 1 ng/ml as heavy exposure. For trend description, adjusted biennial prevalence ratios (abiPR: the ratio associated with a 2-year increase in time) were estimated by race/ethnicity. The prevalence ratios between races/ethnicities were used to quantify ethnoracial differences in different survey periods. Analyses were performed in 2021. RESULTS: The overall ETSE prevalence was cut by almost half, from 61.59% (95% confidence interval = 56.55%, 66.62%) in the 1999-2004 survey to 37.61% (33.90%, 41.31%) in 2013-2018, exceeding the national 2020 health target (47.0%). However, the decrease occurred unequally between races/ethnicities. Heavy ETSE declined significantly in white [abiPR = 0.80 (0.74, 0.86)] and Hispanic children [0.83 (0.74, 0.93)], but insignificantly in black children [0.97 (0.92, 1.03)]. Consequently, the adjusted prevalence ratio between black children and white children increased from 0.82 (0.47, 1.44) in 1999-2004 to 2.73 (1.51, 4.92) in 2013-2018 for heavy ETSE. Hispanic children remained at the lowest risk throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: Overall ETSE prevalence was cut by half between 1999 and 2018. However, due to uneven declines, the gaps between black children and others have expanded in heavy ETSE. Special vigilance is needed in preventive medicine practice with black children.

Changes in the association between overweight and depression across three major ethnic groups, 2005-2018.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between body weight and depression may have changed along with the climbing trend of obesity prevalence, but most previous studies examined the association with a single cross-sectional survey. The present study assessed the change in the association between depression and body weight, measured and perceived from 2005 to 2018, among three major racial/ethnic groups. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 27,387 adults aged ≥18, collected in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Surveys from 2005 to 2010 were combined as the early period and the surveys from 2011 to 2018 as the recent period. RESULTS: A switching pattern was observed among white women. In the 2005-2010 survey period, only self-perceived overweight was significantly associated with depression [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.25 (95% confidence interval = 1.33, 7.90)]. However, in the 2011-2018 survey period, self-perceived overweight was not associated with depression anymore [1.32 (0.72, 2.41)], but obesity measured directly was significantly associated with depression [2.59 (1.04, 6.48)]. Among white men, self-perceived overweight and obesity measured directly were significantly associated with depression only in 2011-2018; [2.57 (1.18, 5.58)] and [0.29 (0.10, 0.80)], respectively. Obesity directly measured consistently associated with increased odds of depression among black men. No significant associations were observed in Hispanic and black women in any survey period. CONCLUSION: Significant gender and ethnic differences exist, and the associations between body weight and depression have evolved in sex-race-specific trajectories. The interventions must be consistently fine-tuned following the dynamics of the relationship between body weight and overall well-being.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential and rural-urban disease burden disparities across Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, March 2020 - May 2021.

PURPOSE: To quantify and compare SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential across Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi and selected counties. METHODS: To determine the time-varying reproduction number Rt of SARS-CoV-2, we applied the R package EpiEstim to the time series of daily incidence of confirmed cases (mid-March 2020 - May 17, 2021) shifted backward by 9 days. Median Rt percentage change when policies changed was determined. Linear regression was performed between log10-transformed cumulative incidence and log10-transformed population size at four time points. RESULTS: Stay-at-home orders, face mask mandates, and vaccinations were associated with the most significant reductions in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the three southern states. Rt across the three states decreased significantly by ≥20% following stay-at-home orders. We observed varying degrees of reductions in Rt across states following other policies. Rural Alabama counties experienced higher per capita cumulative cases relative to urban ones as of June 17 and October 17, 2020. Meanwhile, Louisiana and Mississippi saw the disproportionate impact of SARS-CoV-2 in rural counties compared to urban ones throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: State and county policies had an impact on local pandemic trajectories. The rural-urban disparities in case burden call for evidence-based approaches in tailoring health promotion interventions and vaccination campaigns to rural residents.

Spatially Refined Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 by Health District in Georgia, USA, March-December 2020.

This study quantifies the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 across public health districts in Georgia, USA, and tests if per capita cumulative case count varies across counties. To estimate the time-varying reproduction number, Rt of SARS-CoV-2 in Georgia and its 18 public health districts, we apply the R package 'EpiEstim' to the time series of historical daily incidence of confirmed cases, 2 March-15 December 2020. The epidemic curve is shifted backward by nine days to account for the incubation period and delay to testing. Linear regression is performed between log10-transformed per capita cumulative case count and log10-transformed population size. We observe Rt fluctuations as state and countywide policies are implemented. Policy changes are associated with increases or decreases at different time points. Rt increases, following the reopening of schools for in-person instruction in August. Evidence suggests that counties with lower population size had a higher per capita cumulative case count on June 15 (slope = -0.10, p = 0.04) and October 15 (slope = -0.05, p = 0.03), but not on August 15 (slope = -0.04, p = 0.09), nor December 15 (slope = -0.02, p = 0.41). We found extensive community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across all 18 health districts in Georgia with median 7-day-sliding window Rt estimates between 1 and 1.4 after March 2020.

Impact of diabetes mellitus on risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: Evidence on health outcomes and antidiabetic treatment in United States adults.

AIM: To examine the epidemic of diabetes mellitus (DM) and its impact on mortality from all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to test the effect of antidiabetic therapy on the mortality in United States adults. METHODS: The analysis included a randomized population sample of 272149 subjects ages ≥ 18 years who participated in the National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) in 2000-2009. Chronic conditions (hypertension, DM and CVD) were classified by participants' self-reports of physician diagnosis. NHIS-Mortality Linked Files, and NHIS-Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Linkage Files on prescribed medicines for patients with DM were used to test the research questions. χ2, Poisson and Cox's regression models were applied in data analysis. RESULTS: Of all participants, 22305 (8.2%) had DM. The prevalence of DM significantly increased from 2000 to 2009 in all age groups (P < 0.001). Within an average 7.39 (SD = 3) years of follow-up, male DM patients had 1.56 times higher risk of death from all-cause (HR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.49-1.64), 1.72 times higher from heart disease [1.72 (1.53-1.93)], 1.48 times higher from cerebrovascular disease [1.48 (1.18-1.85)], and 1.67 times higher from CVD [1.67 (1.51-1.86)] than subjects without DM, respectively. Similar results were observed in females. In males, 10% of DM patients did not use any antidiabetic medications, 38.1% used antidiabetic monotherapy, and 51.9% used ≥ 2 antidiabetic medications. These corresponding values were 10.3%, 40.4% and 49.4% in females. A significant protective effect of metformin monotherapy or combination therapy (except for insulin) on all-cause mortality and a protective but non-significant effect on CVD mortality were observed. CONCLUSION: This is the first study using data from multiple linkage files to confirm a significant increased prevalence of DM in the last decade in the United States. Patients with DM have significantly higher risk of death from all-cause and CVD than those without DM. Antidiabetic mediations, specifically for metformin use, show a protective effect against all-cause and CVD mortalities.

Changes in the prevalence of hospitalization and comorbidity in US adults with stroke: A three decade cross-sectional and birth cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Little attention was paid to the transition of care for stroke that may partially explain the long-term trend of stroke rates. We aimed to test the trend of hospitalization attributable to stroke in US adults. METHODS: Data from National Hospital Discharge Surveys 1980-2010 in patients aged ≥18 (n = 6,527,304) were analyzed to examine the trend of patients with first-list diagnoses of stroke. Stroke comorbidities were classified in stroke patients with second- to seven-listed diagnoses of coronary heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, arrhythmias, or hyperlipidemia. Stroke trends by survey years and birth cohorts were analyzed using univariate, multivariate, and birth cohorts methods. RESULTS: Of the total study sample, the prevalence of hospitalization due to stroke was 22.99%, 30.00%, and 27.03% in years of 1980-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2010 in males, and 17.30%, 22.04%, and 19.34% in females, respectively. Overall, hospitalization rates in stroke patients significantly increased among adults aged <65, and decreased in adults aged ≥65. There was an increase in stroke hospitalization rate in the old adults aged ≥65 in recent birth cohorts. Significant increased trends of comorbid hypertension, diabetes, arrhythmias, and hyperlipidemia were observed from 1980 to 2010. CONCLUSION: A significant increase in stroke hospitalization rate was observed in adults aged <65 in the past three decades, and in old adults in recent years. Increases in stroke comorbidity rates were observed in all age groups. Findings from the study highlight that both public health and clinical practices face a serious challenge in controlling this unwelcome increased stroke trend.