Consequences of kelp forest ecosystem shifts and predictors of persistence through multiple stressors.

Ecological communities can be stable over multiple generations, or rapidly shift into structurally and functionally different configurations. In kelp forest ecosystems, overgrazing by sea urchins can abruptly shift forests into alternative states that are void of macroalgae and primarily dominated by actively grazing sea urchins. Beginning in 2014, a sea urchin outbreak along the central coast of California resulted in a patchy mosaic of remnant forests interspersed with sea urchin barrens. In this study, we used a 14-year subtidal monitoring dataset of invertebrates, algae, and fishes to explore changes in community structure associated with the loss of forests. We found that the spatial mosaic of barrens and forests resulted in a region-wide shift in community structure. However, the magnitude of kelp forest loss and taxonomic-level consequences were spatially heterogeneous. Taxonomic diversity declined across the region, but there were no declines in richness for any group, suggesting compositional redistribution. Baseline ecological and environmental conditions, and sea urchin behaviour, explained the persistence of forests through multiple stressors. These results indicate that spatial heterogeneity in preexisting ecological and environmental conditions can explain patterns of community change.

Expanding Kane's argument-based validity framework: What can validation practices in language assessment offer health professions education?

CONTEXT: One central consideration in health professions education (HPE) is to ensure we are making sound and justifiable decisions based on the assessment instruments we use on health professionals. To achieve this goal, HPE assessment researchers have drawn on Kane's argument-based framework to ascertain the validity of their assessment tools. However, the original four-inference model proposed by Kane - frequently used in HPE validation research - has its limitations in terms of what each inference entails and what claims and sources of backing are housed in each inference. The under-specification in the four-inference model has led to inconsistent practices in HPE validation research, posing challenges for (i) researchers who want to evaluate the validity of different HPE assessment tools and/or (ii) researchers who are new to test validation and need to establish a coherent understanding of argument-based validation. METHODS: To address these identified concerns, this article introduces the expanded seven-inference argument-based validation framework that is established practice in the field of language testing and assessment (LTA). We explicate (i) why LTA researchers experienced the need to further specify the original four Kanean inferences; (ii) how LTA validation research defines each of their seven inferences and (iii) what claims, assumptions and sources of backing are associated with each inference. Sampling six representative validation studies in HPE, we demonstrate why an expanded model and a shared disciplinary validation framework can facilitate the examination of the validity evidence in diverse HPE validation contexts. CONCLUSIONS: We invite HPE validation researchers to experiment with the seven-inference argument-based framework from LTA to evaluate its usefulness to HPE. We also call for greater interdisciplinary dialogue between HPE and LTA since both disciplines share many fundamental concerns about language use, communication skills, assessment practices and validity in assessment instruments.

Cancer-related Fatigue in Lung Cancer: A Research Agenda: An Official American Thoracic Society Research Statement.

Background: Fatigue is the most common symptom among cancer survivors. Cancer-related fatigue (CRF) may occur at any point in the cancer care continuum. Multiple factors contribute to CRF development and severity, including cancer type, treatments, presence of other symptoms, comorbidities, and medication side effects. Clinically, increasing physical activity, enhancing sleep quality, and recognizing sleep disorders are integral to managing CRF. Unfortunately, CRF is infrequently recognized, evaluated, or treated in lung cancer survivors despite more frequent and severe symptoms than in other cancers. Therefore, increased awareness and understanding of CRF are needed to improve health-related quality of life in lung cancer survivors. Objectives: 1) To identify and prioritize knowledge and research gaps and 2) to develop and prioritize research questions to evaluate mechanistic, diagnostic, and therapeutic approaches to CRF among lung cancer survivors. Methods: We convened a multidisciplinary panel to review the available literature on CRF, focusing on the impacts of physical activity, rehabilitation, and sleep disturbances in lung cancer. We used a three-round modified Delphi process to prioritize research questions. Results: This statement identifies knowledge gaps in the 1) detection and diagnostic evaluation of CRF in lung cancer survivors; 2) timing, goals, and implementation of physical activity and rehabilitation; and 3) evaluation and treatment of sleep disturbances and disorders to reduce CRF. Finally, we present the panel's initial 32 research questions and seven final prioritized questions. Conclusions: This statement offers a prioritized research agenda to 1) advance clinical and research efforts and 2) increase awareness of CRF in lung cancer survivors.

Drugs That Interact With Colchicine Via Inhibition of Cytochrome P450 3A4 and P-Glycoprotein: A Signal Detection Analysis Using a Database of Spontaneously Reported Adverse Events (FAERS).

BACKGROUND: Colchicine has a narrow therapeutic index. Its toxicity can be increased due to concomitant exposure to drugs inhibiting its metabolic pathway; these are cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4) and P-glycoprotein (P-gp). OBJECTIVE: To examine clinical outcomes associated with colchicine drug interactions using the spontaneous reports of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS). METHODS: We conducted a disproportionality analysis using FAERS data from January 2004 through June 2020. The reporting odds ratio (ROR) and observed-to-expected ratio (O/E) with shrinkage for adverse events related to colchicine's toxicity (ie, rhabdomyolysis/myopathy, agranulocytosis, hemorrhage, acute renal failure, hepatic failure, arrhythmias, torsade de pointes/QT prolongation, and cardiac failure) were compared between FAERS reports. RESULTS: A total of 787 reports included the combined mention of colchicine, an inhibitor of both CYP3A4 and P-gp drug, and an adverse event of interest. Among reports that indicated the severity, 61% mentioned hospitalization and 24% death. A total of 37 ROR and 34 O/E safety signals involving colchicine and a CYP3A4/P-gp inhibitor were identified. The strongest ROR signal was for colchicine + atazanavir and rhabdomyolysis/myopathy (ROR = 35.4, 95% CI: 12.8-97.6), and the strongest O/E signal was for colchicine + atazanavir and agranulocytosis (O/E = 3.79, 95% credibility interval: 3.44-4.03). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: This study identifies numerous safety signals for colchicine and CYP3A4/P-gp inhibitor drugs. Avoiding the interaction or monitoring for toxicity in patients when co-prescribing colchicine and these agents is highly recommended.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of five anti-obesity medications from a US payer's perspective.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To determine the cost-effectiveness of anti-obesity medications (AOM): tirzepatide, semaglutide, liraglutide, phentermine plus topiramate (PpT), and naltrexone plus bupropion (NpB). METHODS AND RESULTS: From a U.S. perspective we developed a Markov model to simulate weight change over a 40-year time horizon using results from clinical studies. According to the body mass index (BMI), cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and mortality risk were the health states considered in the model, being mutually exclusive. Costs of AOM, adverse events, cardiovascular events, and diabetes were included. We applied a 3% per-year discount rate and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters. A deterministic analysis was conducted to determine the robustness of the model. The model included a cohort of 78.2% females with a mean age of 45 years and BMI of 37.1 (SD 4.9) for females and 36.8 (SD 4.9) for males. NpB and PpT were the least costly medications and, all medications differed no more than 0.5 QALYs. Tirzepatide ICER was $355,616 per QALY. Liraglutide and semaglutide options were dominated by PpT. CONCLUSION: Compared to other AOM, PpT was lowest cost treatment with nearly identical QALYs with other agents.

Linking assessment to real life practice - comparing work based assessments and objective structured clinical examinations using mystery shopping.

Objective Structured Clinical Examinations (OSCEs) and Work Based Assessments (WBAs) are the mainstays of assessing clinical competency in health professions' education. Underpinned by the extrapolation inference in Kane's Validity Framework, the purpose of this study is to determine whether OSCEs translate to real life performance by comparing students' OSCE performance to their performance in real-life (as a WBA) using the same clinical scenario, and to understand factors that affect students' performance. A sequential explanatory mixed methods approach where a grade comparison between students' performance in their OSCE and WBA was performed. Students were third year pharmacy undergraduates on placement at a community pharmacy in 2022. The WBA was conducted by a simulated patient, unbeknownst to students and indistinguishable from a genuine patient, visiting the pharmacy asking for health advice. The simulated patient was referred to as a 'mystery shopper' and the process to 'mystery shopping' in this manuscript. Community pharmacy is an ideal setting for real-time observation and mystery shopping as staff can be accessed without appointment. The students' provision of care and clinical knowledge was assessed by the mystery shopper using the same clinical checklist the student was assessed from in the OSCE. Students who had the WBA conducted were then invited to participate in semi-structured interviews to discuss their experiences in both settings. Overall, 92 mystery shopper (WBA) visits with students were conducted and 36 follow-up interviews were completed. The median WBA score was 41.7% [IQR 28.3] and significantly lower compared to the OSCE score 80.9% [IQR 19.0] in all participants (p < 0.001). Interviews revealed students knew they did not perform as well in the WBA compared to their OSCE, but reflected that they still need OSCEs to prepare them to manage real-life patients. Many students related their performance to how they perceived their role in OSCEs versus WBAs, and that OSCEs allowed them more autonomy to manage the patient as opposed to an unfamiliar workplace. As suggested by the activity theory, the performance of the student can be driven by their motivation which differed in the two contexts.

Relationship between a risk score for QT interval prolongation and mortality across rural and urban inpatient facilities.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship between a modified Tisdale QTc-risk score (QTc-RS) and inpatient mortality and length of stay in a broad inpatient population with an order for a medication with a known risk of torsades de pointes (TdP). BACKGROUND: Managing the risk of TdP is challenging due to the number of medications with known risk of TdP and the complexity of precipitating factors. A model to predict risk of mortality may be useful to guide treatment decisions. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study using inpatient data from 28 healthcare facilities in the western United States. This risk score ranges from zero to 23 with weights applied to each risk factor based on a previous validation study. Logistic regression and a generalized linear model were performed to assess the relationship between QTc-RS and mortality and length of stay. RESULTS: Between April and December 2020, a QTc-RS was calculated for 92,383 hospitalized patients. Common risk factors were female (55.0%); age > 67 years (32.1%); and receiving a medication with known risk of TdP (24.5%). A total of 2770 (3%) patients died during their hospitalization. Relative to patients with QTc-RS < 7, the odds ratio for mortality was 4.80 (95%CI:4.42-5.21) for patients with QTc-RS = 7-10 and 11.51 (95%CI:10.23-12.94) for those with QTc-RS ≥ 11. Length of hospital stay increased by 0.7 day for every unit increase in the risk score (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: There is a strong relationship between increased mortality as well as longer duration of hospitalization with an increasing QTc-RS.

Effect of a curriculum transformation on pharmacy student self-efficacy, self-reported activities, and satisfaction in degree and career choice.

BACKGROUND: Curriculum revision in healthcare programs occurs frequently, but to undergo a whole degree transformation is less common. Also, the outcomes of curriculum redesign interventions on the selfreported clinical decision making, experiences, and perceptions of graduates of health education programs is unclear. This study evaluated these factors as an outcome of a pharmacy degree whole-curriculum transformation. METHODS: A 25-item cross-sectional end-of-course survey was developed to evaluate pharmacy student decisions, experiences, and perceptions upon completion of degree, pre- and post- curriculum transformation. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine whether the responses to the items classed within the main factors differed across the two cohorts. Independent t-tests were used to examine the student responses to the individual questions between the two cohorts. RESULTS: Graduates from the transformed degree had greater self-efficacy in clinical activities, were more satisfied with their education, found course activities more useful, and were more confident in their career choice. Transformed pharmacy degree students also reported spending more time on weekdays and weekends on activities such as attending lectures and working. Student satisfaction with their choice to attend pharmacy school was also significantly higher in transformed degree students. CONCLUSIONS: Responses to the end of degree survey indicate that students who completed the transformed pharmacy curriculum have had positive experiences throughout their degree and felt more prepared for practice as pharmacists in comparison to students who completed the established degree. These results add value to those collected from other sources (e.g., student evaluations, assessment scores, preceptors focus groups, and other stakeholder inputs) consistent with a comprehensive quality improvement model.

Real-World Persistence, Adherence, Hypoglycemia, and Health Care Resource Utilization in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Continued With the Second-Generation Basal Insulin Analog Insulin Glargine 300 Units/mL or Switched to a First-Generation Basal Insulin (Insulin Glargine 100 Units/mL or Detemir 100).

People with type 2 diabetes receiving a second-generation basal insulin (BI) analog may be switched to a first-generation formulation for financial reasons or changes in health insurance. However, because second-generation BI analogs have more even pharmacokinetic profiles, longer durations of action (>24 vs. ≤24 hours), and more stable action profiles than first-generation BI analogs, such a change may result in suboptimal treatment persistence and/or adherence. This study compared treatment persistence, treatment adherence, rates of hypoglycemia, and health care resource utilization outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes who either continued treatment with the second-generation BI Gla-300 or switched to a first-generation BI. The study showed that continuing with Gla-300 was associated with a lower risk of discontinuing therapy, fewer emergency department visits, and lower hypoglycemia event rates than switching to a first-generation BI.

Implementation of pharmacogenomic clinical decision support for health systems: a cost-utility analysis.

We constructed a cost-effectiveness model to assess the clinical and economic value of a CDS alert program that provides pharmacogenomic (PGx) testing results, compared to no alert program in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and atrial fibrillation (AF), from a health system perspective. We defaulted that 20% of 500,000 health-system members between the ages of 55 and 65 received PGx testing for CYP2C19 (ACS-clopidogrel) and CYP2C9, CYP4F2 and VKORC1 (AF-warfarin) annually. Clinical events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated over 20 years with an annual discount rate of 3%. In total, 3169 alerts would be fired. The CDS alert program would help avoid 16 major clinical events and 6 deaths for ACS; and 2 clinical events and 0.9 deaths for AF. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $39,477/QALY. A PGx-CDS alert program was cost-effective, under a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY gained, compared to no alert program.

Risk of Bleeding Among Individuals on Direct-Acting Oral Anticoagulants: An Academic Medical Center Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Previous research has identified risk factors that may affect the risk of bleeding when individuals are exposed to oral anticoagulants. It is unclear if the risk continues to exist with the direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of bleeding in patients on DOACs (apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, edoxaban, and betrixaban) based on known risk factors including demographics, medical conditions, and concomitant medications. This study was a retrospective analysis using electronic health record data from the University of Utah Hospital (Division of Cardiovascular Medicine) of individuals receiving a DOAC from 2015 to 2020. The primary outcome of interest was bleeding events [gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, other anatomical site bleeding (excluding GI), and any bleeding] recorded in the electronic health record that codes using International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th codes. Known risk factors were used to predict bleeding using multivariate logistic regression. A total of 5492 patients received a DOAC during the study period. Less than half the study population were female (2287, 41.6%). During the follow-up, there were 988 patients (18.0%) experiencing a bleeding event. Of them, 351 patients (35.5%) had a GI bleeding event. Significant risk factors of GI bleeding included clopidogrel [odds ratio (OR) 1.71; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.16-2.52] and previous GI bleeding episodes (OR 7.73; 95% CI, 5.36-11.16). Exposure to corticosteroids (OR 1.50; 95% CI, 1.20-1.87) and previous GI bleeding (OR 1.61; 95% CI, 1.10-2.35) were associated with an increase in bleeding at other anatomical sites (not GI included).

Evaluation of the key prescription sequence symmetry analysis assumption using the calcium channel blocker: Loop diuretic prescribing cascade.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prescription sequence symmetry analysis assumption regarding balance between marker drug (i.e., medication used to treat a drug-induced adverse event) initiation rates before and after initiation of an index drug (i.e., medication that is potentially associated with the drug-induced adverse event) in the absence of prescribing cascades, we used a well-described example of loop diuretic initiation to treat dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (DH CCB)-induced edema. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The University of Florida Health Integrated Data Repository from June 2011 and July 2018 was used to assess temporal prescribing of DH CCB and loop diuretics within the prescription sequence symmetry analysis framework. Validation of the prescribing cascade was performed via clinical expert chart review. RESULTS: Among patients without heart failure who were initiated on DH CCB, 26 and 64 loop diuretics initiators started within 360 days before versus after DH CCB initiation, respectively, resulting in an adjusted sequence ratio (aSR) of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.44-3.58). Overall, 35 (54.7%) patients were determined to have a prescribing cascade. Removing patients who experienced a prescribing cascade resulted in an aSR of 1.05, 95% CI 0.62-1.78). CONCLUSION: Loop diuretic initiation rates before and after DH CCB initiation for reasons other a prescribing cascade were similar, thus confirming the prescription sequence symmetry analysis assumption.

Exploring cognitive apprenticeship and teaching practices in pharmacy education.

Health professions schools in the United States and internationally have engaged in curricular changes to better prepare students for the future of health care. However, designing or selecting evidence-based teaching activities can be a challenge. Research suggests the Cognitive Apprenticeship theory is an effective framework for the health professions to inform instruction design, yet these studies have mainly focused on the clinical setting and not the didactic learning environment. This study used qualitative methods to explore the Cognitive Apprenticeship framework in the didactic learning environment and the teaching practices that pharmacy faculty used to explicate their expert thinking to students. Faculty were observed using all four Cognitive Apprenticeship dimensions (ie, Content, Sequencing, Methods, Sociology) in their teaching practice. Patterns were observed in the data revealing complex, short and sometimes spontaneous teaching practices that faculty used to promote learning.

Risk of tizanidine-induced adverse events after concomitant exposure to ciprofloxacin: A cohort study in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: Tizanidine's potent muscle relaxant properties and short onset of action makes it desirable for pain management. However, concomitant use of tizanidine with ciprofloxacin, a strong inhibitor of the P450-CYP1A2 cytochrome metabolic pathway of tizanidine, can result in increased tizanidine plasma levels and associated adverse outcomes, particularly hypotension. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of hypotension with coadministration of tizanidine and ciprofloxacin. METHODS: An observational nested cohort study of patients 18 years or older on tizanidine was conducted using data from electronic health records from 2000 to 2018 in the US. We estimated the prevalence and risk of hypotension associated with the DDI between tizanidine and ciprofloxacin using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Our analysis included 70,110 encounters of patients on tizanidine across 221 hospitals. Most encounters included females (65.7%), whites (82.4%), with an average age of 56 years (SD 14.9) and an Elixhauser comorbidity index mean of 1.6 (SD 2.3). Ciprofloxacin was co-administered with tizanidine in 2487 encounters (3.6%). Compared to patients who did not receive ciprofloxacin, co-administration of tizanidine and ciprofloxacin was associated with an increased likelihood of hypotension (adjusted odds ratio: 1.43, 95% Confidence Intervals:1.25-1.63, p-value<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the concomitant use of tizanidine and ciprofloxacin is associated with an elevated risk of hypotension. The prevalence of co-administration of drugs with a documented interaction highlights the need for continuous education across providers to avoid the incidence of DDI related adverse events and further complications and to improve patient outcomes.

Colchicine and macrolides: a cohort study of the risk of adverse outcomes associated with concomitant exposure.

Colchicine is increasingly used as the number of potential indications expands. However, it also has a narrow therapeutic index that is associated with bothersome to severe side effects. When concomitantly use with medications inhibiting its metabolism, higher plasma levels will result and increase likelihood of colchicine toxicity. We conducted a cohort study using electronic health records comparing encounters with colchicine plus a macrolide and colchicine with an antibiotic non-macrolide. We assessed the relationship between the two groups using adjusted multivariate logistic regression models and the risk of rhabdomyolysis, pancytopenia, muscular weakness, heart failure, acute hepatic failure and death. 12670 patients on colchicine plus an antibiotic non-macrolide were compared to 2199 patients exposed to colchicine plus a macrolide. Patients exposed to colchicine and a macrolide were majority men (n = 1329, 60.4%) and white (n = 1485, 67.5%) in their late sixties (mean age in years 68.4, SD 15.6). Heart failure was more frequent in the colchicine plus a macrolide cohort (n = 402, 18.3%) vs the colchicine non-macrolide one (n = 1153, 9.1%) (p < 0.0001) and also had a higher mortality rate [(85 (3.87%) vs 289 (2.28%), p < 0.0001 macrolides vs non-macrolides cohorts, respectively]. When the sample was limited to individuals exposed to either clarithromycin or erythromycin and colchicine, the adjusted OR for acute hepatic failure was 2.47 (95% CI 1.04-5.91) and 2.06 for death (95% CI 1.07-3.97). There is a significant increase in the risk of hepatic failure and mortality when colchicine is concomitantly administered with a macrolide. Colchicine should not be used concomitantly with these antibiotics or should be temporarily discontinued to avoid toxic levels of colchicine.

Interpretable Machine Learning Prediction of Drug-Induced QT Prolongation: Electronic Health Record Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Drug-induced long-QT syndrome (diLQTS) is a major concern among patients who are hospitalized, for whom prediction models capable of identifying individualized risk could be useful to guide monitoring. We have previously demonstrated the feasibility of machine learning to predict the risk of diLQTS, in which deep learning models provided superior accuracy for risk prediction, although these models were limited by a lack of interpretability. OBJECTIVE: In this investigation, we sought to examine the potential trade-off between interpretability and predictive accuracy with the use of more complex models to identify patients at risk for diLQTS. We planned to compare a deep learning algorithm to predict diLQTS with a more interpretable algorithm based on cluster analysis that would allow medication- and subpopulation-specific evaluation of risk. METHODS: We examined the risk of diLQTS among 35,639 inpatients treated between 2003 and 2018 with at least 1 of 39 medications associated with risk of diLQTS and who had an electrocardiogram in the system performed within 24 hours of medication administration. Predictors included over 22,000 diagnoses and medications at the time of medication administration, with cases of diLQTS defined as a corrected QT interval over 500 milliseconds after treatment with a culprit medication. The interpretable model was developed using cluster analysis (K=4 clusters), and risk was assessed for specific medications and classes of medications. The deep learning model was created using all predictors within a 6-layer neural network, based on previously identified hyperparameters. RESULTS: Among the medications, we found that class III antiarrhythmic medications were associated with increased risk across all clusters, and that in patients who are noncritically ill without cardiovascular disease, propofol was associated with increased risk, whereas ondansetron was associated with decreased risk. Compared with deep learning, the interpretable approach was less accurate (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.65 vs 0.78), with comparable calibration. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, we found that an interpretable modeling approach was less accurate, but more clinically applicable, than deep learning for the prediction of diLQTS. Future investigations should consider this trade-off in the development of methods for clinical prediction.

Predicting Mortality Risk After a Hospital or Emergency Department Visit for Nonfatal Opioid Overdose.

BACKGROUND: Survivors of opioid overdose have substantially increased mortality risk, although this risk is not evenly distributed across individuals. No study has focused on predicting an individual's risk of death after a nonfatal opioid overdose. OBJECTIVE: To predict risk of death after a nonfatal opioid overdose. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective cohort study included 9686 Pennsylvania Medicaid beneficiaries with an emergency department or inpatient claim for nonfatal opioid overdose in 2014-2016. The index date was the first overdose claim during this period. EXPOSURES, MAIN OUTCOME, AND MEASURES: Predictor candidates were measured in the 180 days before the index overdose. Primary outcome was 180-day all-cause mortality. Using a gradient boosting machine model, we classified beneficiaries into six subgroups according to their risk of mortality (< 25th percentile of the risk score, 25th to < 50th, 50th to < 75th, 75th to < 90th, 90th to < 98th, ≥ 98th). We then measured receipt of medication for opioid use disorder (OUD), risk mitigation interventions (e.g., prescriptions for naloxone), and prescription opioids filled in the 180 days after the index overdose, by risk subgroup. KEY RESULTS: Of eligible beneficiaries, 347 (3.6%) died within 180 days after the index overdose. The C-statistic of the mortality prediction model was 0.71. In the highest risk subgroup, the observed 180-day mortality rate was 20.3%, while in the lowest risk subgroup, it was 1.5%. Medication for OUD and risk mitigation interventions after overdose were more commonly seen in lower risk groups, while opioid prescriptions were more likely to be used in higher risk groups (both p trends < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A risk prediction model performed well for classifying mortality risk after a nonfatal opioid overdose. This prediction score can identify high-risk subgroups to target interventions to improve outcomes among overdose survivors.

Association Between Dual Trajectories of Opioid and Gabapentinoid Use and Healthcare Expenditures Among US Medicare Beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about relationships between opioid- and gabapentinoid-use patterns and healthcare expenditures that may be affected by pain management and risk of adverse outcomes. This study examined the association between patients' opioid and gabapentinoid prescription filling/refilling trajectories and direct medical expenditures in US Medicare. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included a 5% national sample (2011-2016) of fee-for-service beneficiaries with fibromyalgia, low back pain, neuropathy, or osteoarthritis newly initiating opioids or gabapentinoids. Using group-based multitrajectory modeling, this study identified patients' distinct opioid and gabapentinoid (OPI-GABA) dose and duration patterns, based on standardized daily doses, within a year of initiating opioids and/or gabapentinoids. Concurrent direct medical expenditures within the same year were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighted multivariable generalized linear regression, adjusting for sociodemographic and health status factors. RESULTS: Among 67 827 eligible beneficiaries (mean age ± SD = 63.6 ± 14.8 years, female = 65.8%, white = 77.1%), 11 distinct trajectories were identified (3 opioid-only, 4 gabapentinoid-only, and 4 concurrent OPI-GABA trajectories). Compared with opioid-only early discontinuers ($13 830, 95% confidence interval = $13 643-14 019), gabapentinoid-only early discontinuers and consistent low-dose and moderate-dose gabapentinoid-only users were associated with 11% to 23% lower health expenditures (adjusted mean expenditure = $10 607-$11 713). Consistent low-dose opioid-only users, consistent high-dose opioid-only users, consistent low-dose OPI-GABA users, consistent low-dose opioid and high-dose gabapentinoid users, and consistent high-dose opioid and moderate-dose gabapentinoid users were associated with 14% to 106% higher healthcare expenditures (adjusted mean expenditure = $15 721-$28 464). CONCLUSIONS: Dose and duration patterns of concurrent OPI-GABA varied substantially among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries. Consistent opioid-only users and all concurrent OPI-GABA users were associated with higher healthcare expenditures compared to opioid-only discontinuers.

Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care "6-Clicks" for the Prediction of Short-term Clinical Outcomes in Individuals Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of the Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care (AM-PAC) "6-Clicks" assessments of mobility and activity to predict key clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: An academic health system in the United States consisting of 5 inpatient hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients (N=1486) urgently or emergently admitted who tested positive for COVID-19 and had at least 1 AM-PAC assessment. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discharge destination, hospital length of stay, in-hospital mortality, and readmission. RESULTS: A total of 1486 admission records were included in the analysis. After controlling for covariates, initial and final mobility (odds ratio, 0.867 and 0.833, respectively) and activity scores (odds ratio, 0.892 and 0.862, respectively) were both independent predictors of discharge destination with a high accuracy of prediction (area under the curve [AUC]=0.819-0.847). Using a threshold score of 17.5, sensitivity ranged from 0.72-0.79, whereas specificity ranged from 0.74-0.83. Both initial AM-PAC mobility and activity scores were independent predictors of mortality (odds ratio, 0.885 and 0.877, respectively). Initial mobility, but not activity, scores were predictive of prolonged length of stay (odds ratio, 0.957 and 0.980, respectively). However, the accuracy of prediction for both outcomes was weak (AUC=0.659-0.679). AM-PAC scores did not predict rehospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Functional status as measured by the AM-PAC "6-Clicks" mobility and activity scores are independent predictors of key clinical outcomes individual hospitalized with COVID-19.

A conceptual framework for evaluation of community pharmacy pay-for-performance programs.

BACKGROUND: Recent interest in initiating pay-for-performance (P4P) programs indicates an underlying belief that economic incentives will have a direct impact on health care quality and efficiency. Evaluations of the impact of P4P programs on health care organizations and providers have been presented in the literature; however, none have focused on the impact of an incentive targeting community pharmacies. OBJECTIVE: To propose a theory-derived conceptual framework of how a financial incentive might work in a community pharmacy. METHODS: Studies from the fields of economics (agency theory), psychology (intrinsic and extrinsic motivators; expectancy theory), and organizational theory (ownership, institutional layers, organizational culture, and change management; quality improvement) were reviewed to inform the framework's components. This proposed conceptual framework also integrated and expanded on previous health care-related P4P models. RESULTS: P4P programs inherently use financial incentives to catalyze change; however, elements from psychology and organizational theories along with economic theory were identified as important considerations in how a financial incentive may operate when targeting a community pharmacy. Through the incorporation of these theories along with other P4P frameworks in health care, a conceptual framework was derived comprising 4 domains: incentive, pharmacy, other influencing factors, and P4P program measures. Hypothesized relationships among these domains were depicted. CONCLUSION: As focus on improving the quality of health care provision develops, opportunities for pharmacists to provide patient care services beyond dispensing will continue to advance, along with expanded reimbursement mechanisms extending beyond traditional product dispensing. The proposed theory-derived conceptual framework serves to depict how the integration of P4P and other factors may affect the pharmacy environment and subsequently affect a pharmacy's capability to perform well on medication-related quality measures. This framework may be used as a foundation on which to design studies to investigate the association between community pharmacy factors and performance in a P4P program.