Feature selection for support vector regression using a genetic algorithm.

Support vector regression (SVR) is particularly beneficial when the outcome and predictors are nonlinearly related. However, when many covariates are available, the method's flexibility can lead to overfitting and an overall loss in predictive accuracy. To overcome this drawback, we develop a feature selection method for SVR based on a genetic algorithm that iteratively searches across potential subsets of covariates to find those that yield the best performance according to a user-defined fitness function. We evaluate the performance of our feature selection method for SVR, comparing it to alternate methods including LASSO and random forest, in a simulation study. We find that our method yields higher predictive accuracy than SVR without feature selection. Our method outperforms LASSO when the relationship between covariates and outcome is nonlinear. Random forest performs equivalently to our method in some scenarios, but more poorly when covariates are correlated. We apply our method to predict donor kidney function 1 year after transplant using data from the United Network for Organ Sharing national registry.

Utilizing image and caption information for biomedical document classification.

MOTIVATION: Biomedical research findings are typically disseminated through publications. To simplify access to domain-specific knowledge while supporting the research community, several biomedical databases devote significant effort to manual curation of the literature-a labor intensive process. The first step toward biocuration requires identifying articles relevant to the specific area on which the database focuses. Thus, automatically identifying publications relevant to a specific topic within a large volume of publications is an important task toward expediting the biocuration process and, in turn, biomedical research. Current methods focus on textual contents, typically extracted from the title-and-abstract. Notably, images and captions are often used in publications to convey pivotal evidence about processes, experiments and results. RESULTS: We present a new document classification scheme, using both image and caption information, in addition to titles-and-abstracts. To use the image information, we introduce a new image representation, namely Figure-word, based on class labels of subfigures. We use word embeddings for representing captions and titles-and-abstracts. To utilize all three types of information, we introduce two information integration methods. The first combines Figure-words and textual features obtained from captions and titles-and-abstracts into a single larger vector for document representation; the second employs a meta-classification scheme. Our experiments and results demonstrate the usefulness of the newly proposed Figure-words for representing images. Moreover, the results showcase the value of Figure-words, captions and titles-and-abstracts in providing complementary information for document classification; these three sources of information when combined, lead to an overall improved classification performance. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code and the list of PMIDs of the publications in our datasets are available upon request.

Optimal Treatment Selection in Sequential Systemic and Locoregional Therapy of Oropharyngeal Squamous Carcinomas: Deep Q-Learning With a Patient-Physician Digital Twin Dyad.

BACKGROUND: Currently, selection of patients for sequential versus concurrent chemotherapy and radiation regimens lacks evidentiary support and it is based on locally optimal decisions for each step. OBJECTIVE: We aim to optimize the multistep treatment of patients with head and neck cancer and predict multiple patient survival and toxicity outcomes, and we develop, apply, and evaluate a first application of deep Q-learning (DQL) and simulation to this problem. METHODS: The treatment decision DQL digital twin and the patient's digital twin were created, trained, and evaluated on a data set of 536 patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma with the goal of, respectively, determining the optimal treatment decisions with respect to survival and toxicity metrics and predicting the outcomes of the optimal treatment on the patient. Of the data set of 536 patients, the models were trained on a subset of 402 (75%) patients (split randomly) and evaluated on a separate set of 134 (25%) patients. Training and evaluation of the digital twin dyad was completed in August 2020. The data set includes 3-step sequential treatment decisions and complete relevant history of the patient cohort treated at MD Anderson Cancer Center between 2005 and 2013, with radiomics analysis performed for the segmented primary tumor volumes. RESULTS: On the test set, we found mean 87.35% (SD 11.15%) and median 90.85% (IQR 13.56%) accuracies in treatment outcome prediction, matching the clinicians' outcomes and improving the (predicted) survival rate by +3.73% (95% CI -0.75% to 8.96%) and the dysphagia rate by +0.75% (95% CI -4.48% to 6.72%) when following DQL treatment decisions. CONCLUSIONS: Given the prediction accuracy and predicted improvement regarding the medically relevant outcomes yielded by this approach, this digital twin dyad of the patient-physician dynamic treatment problem has the potential of aiding physicians in determining the optimal course of treatment and in assessing its outcomes.

Ten simple rules to create biological network figures for communication.

Biological network figures are ubiquitous in the biology and medical literature. On the one hand, a good network figure can quickly provide information about the nature and degree of interactions between items and enable inferences about the reason for those interactions. On the other hand, good network figures are difficult to create. In this paper, we outline 10 simple rules for creating biological network figures for communication, from choosing layouts, to applying color or other channels to show attributes, to the use of layering and separation. These rules are accompanied by illustrative examples. We also provide a concise set of references and additional resources for each rule.

PRODIGEN: visualizing the probability landscape of stochastic gene regulatory networks in state and time space.

BACKGROUND: Visualizing the complex probability landscape of stochastic gene regulatory networks can further biologists' understanding of phenotypic behavior associated with specific genes. RESULTS: We present PRODIGEN (PRObability DIstribution of GEne Networks), a web-based visual analysis tool for the systematic exploration of probability distributions over simulation time and state space in such networks. PRODIGEN was designed in collaboration with bioinformaticians who research stochastic gene networks. The analysis tool combines in a novel way existing, expanded, and new visual encodings to capture the time-varying characteristics of probability distributions: spaghetti plots over one dimensional projection, heatmaps of distributions over 2D projections, enhanced with overlaid time curves to display temporal changes, and novel individual glyphs of state information corresponding to particular peaks. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the effectiveness of the tool through two case studies on the computed probabilistic landscape of a gene regulatory network and of a toggle-switch network. Domain expert feedback indicates that our visual approach can help biologists: 1) visualize probabilities of stable states, 2) explore the temporal probability distributions, and 3) discover small peaks in the probability landscape that have potential relation to specific diseases.

RemBrain: Exploring Dynamic Biospatial Networks with Mosaic Matrices and Mirror Glyphs.

We introduce a web-based visual comparison approach for the systematic exploration of dynamic activation networks across biological datasets. Understanding the dynamics of such networks in the context of demographic factors like age is a fundamental problem in computational systems biology and neuroscience. We design visual encodings for the dynamic and community characteristics of these temporal networks. Our multi-scale approach blends nested mosaic matrices that capture temporal characteristics of the data, spatial views of the network data, Kiviat diagrams and mirror glyphs that detail the temporal behavior and community assignment of specific nodes. A top design specifically targeted at pairwise visual comparison further supports the comparative analysis of multiple dataset activations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach through a case study on mouse brain network data. Domain expert feedback indicates this approach can help identify trends and anomalies in the data.

MOSBIE: a tool for comparison and analysis of rule-based biochemical models.

BACKGROUND: Mechanistic models that describe the dynamical behaviors of biochemical systems are common in computational systems biology, especially in the realm of cellular signaling. The development of families of such models, either by a single research group or by different groups working within the same area, presents significant challenges that range from identifying structural similarities and differences between models to understanding how these differences affect system dynamics. RESULTS: We present the development and features of an interactive model exploration system, MOSBIE, which provides utilities for identifying similarities and differences between models within a family. Models are clustered using a custom similarity metric, and a visual interface is provided that allows a researcher to interactively compare the structures of pairs of models as well as view simulation results. CONCLUSIONS: We illustrate the usefulness of MOSBIE via two case studies in the cell signaling domain. We also present feedback provided by domain experts and discuss the benefits, as well as the limitations, of the approach.

Roses Have Thorns: Understanding the Downside of Oncological Care Delivery Through Visual Analytics and Sequential Rule Mining.

Personalized head and neck cancer therapeutics have greatly improved survival rates for patients, but are often leading to understudied long-lasting symptoms which affect quality of life. Sequential rule mining (SRM) is a promising unsupervised machine learning method for predicting longitudinal patterns in temporal data which, however, can output many repetitive patterns that are difficult to interpret without the assistance of visual analytics. We present a data-driven, human-machine analysis visual system developed in collaboration with SRM model builders in cancer symptom research, which facilitates mechanistic knowledge discovery in large scale, multivariate cohort symptom data. Our system supports multivariate predictive modeling of post-treatment symptoms based on during-treatment symptoms. It supports this goal through an SRM, clustering, and aggregation back end, and a custom front end to help develop and tune the predictive models. The system also explains the resulting predictions in the context of therapeutic decisions typical in personalized care delivery. We evaluate the resulting models and system with an interdisciplinary group of modelers and head and neck oncology researchers. The results demonstrate that our system effectively supports clinical and symptom research.

DITTO: A Visual Digital Twin for Interventions and Temporal Treatment Outcomes in Head and Neck Cancer.

Digital twin models are of high interest to Head and Neck Cancer (HNC) oncologists, who have to navigate a series of complex treatment decisions that weigh the efficacy of tumor control against toxicity and mortality risks. Evaluating individual risk profiles necessitates a deeper understanding of the interplay between different factors such as patient health, spatial tumor location and spread, and risk of subsequent toxicities that can not be adequately captured through simple heuristics. To support clinicians in better understanding tradeoffs when deciding on treatment courses, we developed DITTO, a digital-twin and visual computing system that allows clinicians to analyze detailed risk profiles for each patient, and decide on a treatment plan. DITTO relies on a sequential Deep Reinforcement Learning digital twin (DT) to deliver personalized risk of both long-term and short-term disease outcome and toxicity risk for HNC patients. Based on a participatory collaborative design alongside oncologists, we also implement several visual explainability methods to promote clinical trust and encourage healthy skepticism when using our system. We evaluate the efficacy of DITTO through quantitative evaluation of performance and case studies with qualitative feedback. Finally, we discuss design lessons for developing clinical visual XAI applications for clinical end users.

Visual Analysis and Detection of Contrails in Aircraft Engine Simulations.

Contrails are condensation trails generated from emitted particles by aircraft engines, which perturb Earth's radiation budget. Simulation modeling is used to interpret the formation and development of contrails. These simulations are computationally intensive and rely on high-performance computing solutions, and the contrail structures are not well defined. We propose a visual computing system to assist in defining contrails and their characteristics, as well as in the analysis of parameters for computer-generated aircraft engine simulations. The back-end of our system leverages a contrail-formation criterion and clustering methods to detect contrails' shape and evolution and identify similar simulation runs. The front-end system helps analyze contrails and their parameters across multiple simulation runs. The evaluation with domain experts shows this approach successfully aids in contrail data investigation.

Enhancing biomedical search interfaces with images.

Motivation: Figures in biomedical papers communicate essential information with the potential to identify relevant documents in biomedical and clinical settings. However, academic search interfaces mainly search over text fields. Results: We describe a search system for biomedical documents that leverages image modalities and an existing index server. We integrate a problem-specific taxonomy of image modalities and image-based data into a custom search system. Our solution features a front-end interface to enhance classical document search results with image-related data, including page thumbnails, figures, captions and image-modality information. We demonstrate the system on a subset of the CORD-19 document collection. A quantitative evaluation demonstrates higher precision and recall for biomedical document retrieval. A qualitative evaluation with domain experts further highlights our solution's benefits to biomedical search. Availability and implementation: A demonstration is available at https://runachay.evl.uic.edu/scholar. Our code and image models can be accessed via github.com/uic-evl/bio-search. The dataset is continuously expanded.

Improving Prediction of Late Symptoms using LSTM and Patient-reported Outcomes for Head and Neck Cancer Patients.

Patient-Reported Outcomes (PRO) are collected directly from the patients using symptom questionnaires. In the case of head and neck cancer patients, PRO surveys are recorded every week during treatment with each patient's visit to the clinic and at different follow-up times after the treatment has concluded. PRO surveys can be very informative regarding the patient's status and the effect of treatment on the patient's quality of life (QoL). Processing PRO data is challenging for several reasons. First, missing data is frequent as patients might skip a question or a questionnaire altogether. Second, PROs are patient-dependent, a rating of 5 for one patient might be a rating of 10 for another patient. Finally, most patients experience severe symptoms during treatment which usually subside over time. However, for some patients, late toxicities persist negatively affecting the patient's QoL. These long-term severe symptoms are hard to predict and are the focus of this study. In this work, we model PRO data collected from head and neck cancer patients treated at the MD Anderson Cancer Center using the MD Anderson Symptom Inventory (MDASI) questionnaire as time series. We impute missing values with a combination of K nearest neighbor (KNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, and finally, apply LSTM to predict late symptom severity 12 months after treatment. We compare performance against clinical and ARIMA models. We show that the LSTM model combined with KNN imputation is effective in predicting late-stage symptom ratings for occurrence and severity under the AUC and F1 score metrics.

Multi-organ spatial stratification of 3-D dose distributions improves risk prediction of long-term self-reported severe symptoms in oropharyngeal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy: development of a pre-treatment decision support tool.

Purpose: Identify Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) patients at high-risk of developing long-term severe radiation-associated symptoms using dose volume histograms for organs-at-risk, via unsupervised clustering. Material and methods: All patients were treated using radiation therapy for OPC. Dose-volume histograms of organs-at-risk were extracted from patients' treatment plans. Symptom ratings were collected via the MD Anderson Symptom Inventory (MDASI) given weekly during, and 6 months post-treatment. Drymouth, trouble swallowing, mucus, and vocal dysfunction were selected for analysis in this study. Patient stratifications were obtained by applying Bayesian Mixture Models with three components to patient's dose histograms for relevant organs. The clusters with the highest total mean doses were translated into dose thresholds using rule mining. Patient stratifications were compared against Tumor staging information using multivariate likelihood ratio tests. Model performance for prediction of moderate/severe symptoms at 6 months was compared against normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models using cross-validation. Results: A total of 349 patients were included for long-term symptom prediction. High-risk clusters were significantly correlated with outcomes for severe late drymouth (p <.0001, OR = 2.94), swallow (p = .002, OR = 5.13), mucus (p = .001, OR = 3.18), and voice (p = .009, OR = 8.99). Simplified clusters were also correlated with late severe symptoms for drymouth (p <.001, OR = 2.77), swallow (p = .01, OR = 3.63), mucus (p = .01, OR = 2.37), and voice (p <.001, OR = 19.75). Proposed cluster stratifications show better performance than NTCP models for severe drymouth (AUC.598 vs.559, MCC.143 vs.062), swallow (AUC.631 vs.561, MCC.20 vs -.030), mucus (AUC.596 vs.492, MCC.164 vs -.041), and voice (AUC.681 vs.555, MCC.181 vs -.019). Simplified dose thresholds also show better performance than baseline models for predicting late severe ratings for all symptoms. Conclusion: Our results show that leveraging the 3-D dose histograms from radiation therapy plan improves stratification of patients according to their risk of experiencing long-term severe radiation associated symptoms, beyond existing NTPC models. Our rule-based method can approximate our stratifications with minimal loss of accuracy and can proactively identify risk factors for radiation-associated toxicity.

Spatially-aware clustering improves AJCC-8 risk stratification performance in oropharyngeal carcinomas.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the effectiveness of machine learning tools that incorporate spatial information such as disease location and lymph node metastatic patterns-of-spread, for prediction of survival and toxicity in HPV+ oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). MATERIALS & METHODS: 675 HPV+ OPC patients that were treated at MD Anderson Cancer Center between 2005 and 2013 with curative intent IMRT were retrospectively collected under IRB approval. Risk stratifications incorporating patient radiometric data and lymph node metastasis patterns via an anatomically-adjacent representation with hierarchical clustering were identified. These clusterings were combined into a 3-level patient stratification and included along with other known clinical features in a Cox model for predicting survival outcomes, and logistic regression for toxicity, using independent subsets for training and validation. RESULTS: Four groups were identified and combined into a 3-level stratification. The inclusion of patient stratifications in predictive models for 5-yr Overall survival (OS), 5-year recurrence free survival, (RFS) and Radiation-associated dysphagia (RAD) consistently improved model performance measured using the area under the curve (AUC). Test set AUC improvements over models with clinical covariates, was 9 % for predicting OS, and 18 % for predicting RFS, and 7 % for predicting RAD. For models with both clinical and AJCC covariates, AUC improvement was 7 %, 9 %, and 2 % for OS, RFS, and RAD, respectively. CONCLUSION: Including data-driven patient stratifications considerably improve prognosis for survival and toxicity outcomes over the performance achieved by clinical staging and clinical covariates alone. These stratifications generalize well to across cohorts, and sufficient information for reproducing these clusters is included.

Head and neck cancer predictive risk estimator to determine control and therapeutic outcomes of radiotherapy (HNC-PREDICTOR): development, international multi-institutional validation, and web implementation of clinic-ready model-based risk stratification for head and neck cancer.

BACKGROUND: Personalised radiotherapy can improve treatment outcomes of patients with head and neck cancer (HNC), where currently a 'one-dose-fits-all' approach is the standard. The aim was to establish individualised outcome prediction based on multi-institutional international 'big-data' to facilitate risk-based stratification of patients with HNC. METHODS: The data of 4611 HNC radiotherapy patients from three academic cancer centres were split into four cohorts: a training (n = 2241), independent test (n = 786), and external validation cohorts 1 (n = 1087) and 2 (n = 497). Tumour- and patient-related clinical variables were considered in a machine learning pipeline to predict overall survival (primary end-point) and local and regional tumour control (secondary end-points); serially, imaging features were considered for optional model improvement. Finally, patients were stratified into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. RESULTS: Performance score, AJCC8thstage, pack-years, and Age were identified as predictors for overall survival, demonstrating good performance in both the training cohort (c-index = 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66-0.77]) and in all three validation cohorts (c-indices: 0.76 [0.69-0.83], 0.73 [0.68-0.77], and 0.75 [0.68-0.80]). Excellent stratification of patients with HNC into high, intermediate, and low mortality risk was achieved; with 5-year overall survival rates of 17-46% for the high-risk group compared to 92-98% for the low-risk group. The addition of morphological image feature further improved the performance (c-index = 0.73 [0.64-0.81]). These models are integrated in a clinic-ready interactive web interface: https://uic-evl.github.io/hnc-predictor/ CONCLUSIONS: Robust model-based prediction was able to stratify patients with HNC in distinct high, intermediate, and low mortality risk groups. This can effectively be capitalised for personalised radiotherapy, e.g., for tumour radiation dose escalation/de-escalation.

RuleBender: integrated modeling, simulation and visualization for rule-based intracellular biochemistry.

BACKGROUND: Rule-based modeling (RBM) is a powerful and increasingly popular approach to modeling cell signaling networks. However, novel visual tools are needed in order to make RBM accessible to a broad range of users, to make specification of models less error prone, and to improve workflows. RESULTS: We introduce RuleBender, a novel visualization system for the integrated visualization, modeling and simulation of rule-based intracellular biochemistry. We present the user requirements, visual paradigms, algorithms and design decisions behind RuleBender, with emphasis on visual global/local model exploration and integrated execution of simulations. The support of RBM creation, debugging, and interactive visualization expedites the RBM learning process and reduces model construction time; while built-in model simulation and results with multiple linked views streamline the execution and analysis of newly created models and generated networks. CONCLUSION: RuleBender has been adopted as both an educational and a research tool and is available as a free open source tool at http://www.rulebender.org. A development cycle that includes close interaction with expert users allows RuleBender to better serve the needs of the systems biology community.

RuleBender: a visual interface for rule-based modeling.

SUMMARY: Rule-based modeling (RBM) is a powerful and increasingly popular approach to modeling intracellular biochemistry. Current interfaces for RBM are predominantly text-based and command-line driven. Better visual tools are needed to make RBM accessible to a broad range of users, to make specification of models less error prone and to improve workflows. We present RULEBENDER, an open-source visual interface that facilitates interactive debugging, simulation and analysis of RBMs. AVAILABILITY: RULEBENDER is freely available for Mac, Windows and Linux at http://rulebender.org.

A Tale of Two Centers: Visual Exploration of Health Disparities in Cancer Care.

The annual incidence of head and neck cancers (HNC) worldwide is more than 550,000 cases, with around 300,000 deaths each year. However, the incidence rates and disease-characteristics of HNC differ between treatment centers and different populations, due to undetermined reasons, which may or not include socioeconomic factors. The multi-faceted and multi-variate nature of the data in the context of the emerging field of health disparities research makes automated analysis impractical. Hence, we present a visual analysis approach to explore the health disparities in the data of HNC patients from two different cohorts at two cancer care centers. Our approach integrates data from multiple sources, including census data and city data, with custom visual encodings and with a nearest neighbor approach. Our design, created in collaboration with oncology experts, makes it possible to analyze the patients' demographic, disease characteristics, treatments and outcomes, and to make significant comparisons of these two cohorts and of individual patients. We evaluate this approach through two case studies performed with domain experts. The results demonstrate that this visual analysis approach successfully accomplishes the goal of comparing two cohorts in terms of different significant factors, and can provide insights into the main source of health disparities between the two centers.

THALIS: Human-Machine Analysis of Longitudinal Symptoms in Cancer Therapy.

Although cancer patients survive years after oncologic therapy, they are plagued with long-lasting or permanent residual symptoms, whose severity, rate of development, and resolution after treatment vary largely between survivors. The analysis and interpretation of symptoms is complicated by their partial co-occurrence, variability across populations and across time, and, in the case of cancers that use radiotherapy, by further symptom dependency on the tumor location and prescribed treatment. We describe THALIS, an environment for visual analysis and knowledge discovery from cancer therapy symptom data, developed in close collaboration with oncology experts. Our approach leverages unsupervised machine learning methodology over cohorts of patients, and, in conjunction with custom visual encodings and interactions, provides context for new patients based on patients with similar diagnostic features and symptom evolution. We evaluate this approach on data collected from a cohort of head and neck cancer patients. Feedback from our clinician collaborators indicates that THALIS supports knowledge discovery beyond the limits of machines or humans alone, and that it serves as a valuable tool in both the clinic and symptom research.