Hidden impacts of ocean warming and acidification on biological responses of marine animals revealed through meta-analysis.

Conflicting results remain on the impacts of climate change on marine organisms, hindering our capacity to predict the future state of marine ecosystems. To account for species-specific responses and for the ambiguous relation of most metrics to fitness, we develop a meta-analytical approach based on the deviation of responses from reference values (absolute change) to complement meta-analyses of directional (relative) changes in responses. Using this approach, we evaluate responses of fish and invertebrates to warming and acidification. We find that climate drivers induce directional changes in calcification, survival, and metabolism, and significant deviations in twice as many biological responses, including physiology, reproduction, behavior, and development. Widespread deviations of responses are detected even under moderate intensity levels of warming and acidification, while directional changes are mostly limited to more severe intensity levels. Because such deviations may result in ecological shifts impacting ecosystem structures and processes, our results suggest that climate change will likely have stronger impacts than those previously predicted based on directional changes alone.

Early onset of abnormal glucose tolerance in patients with cystic fibrosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite translational evidences suggesting that cystic fibrosis-related abnormal glucose tolerance (CF-related AGT) may begin early in life and is known to be associated with increased morbidity and mortality, current guidelines recommend screening for AGT only from 10 years of age, thus missing the opportunity for early detection and intervention. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO number: CRD42021282516) was conducted on studies that reported data on the prevalence of AGT or its subtypes in CF populations. Pooled proportions, risk, and odds ratios with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. One-stage dose-response random-effect meta-analysis was used to assess the effect of age on CF-related diabetes (CFRD). RESULTS: The quantitative analysis included 457 studies and data from 520,544 patients. Every third child with CF (chwCF) (0.31 [95 % CI 0.25-0.37]) and every second adult with CF (awCF) (0.51 [95 % CI 0.45-0.57]) were affected by AGT. Even in the 5-10 years of age subgroup, the proportion of AGT was 0.42 [95 % CI 0.34-0.51]. The prevalence of prediabetes remained unchanged (impaired glucose tolerance in chwCF:0.14 [95 % CI 0.10-0.18]) vs. awCF:0.19 [95 % CI 0.14-0.25]), whereas the proportion of CFRD increased with age (0-5: 0.005 [95 % CI 0.0001-0.15]; 5-10: 0.05 [95 % CI 0.01-0.27]; 10-18: 0.11 [95 % CI 0.08-0.14]; >18 years of age: 0.27 [95 % CI 0.24-0.30]). CONCLUSION: CF-related AGT is common under 10 years of age. Our study suggests considering earlier AGT screening, starting from 5 years of age. This highlights the imperative for additional research for guideline adjustments and provides the opportunity for early intervention.

Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial.

The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

Risk factors for diabetes mellitus after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Within 5 years of having acute pancreatitis (AP), approximately 20% of patients develop diabetes mellitus (DM), which later increases to approximately 40%. Some studies suggest that the prevalence of prediabetes (PD) and/or DM can grow as high as 59% over time. However, information on risk factors is limited. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing PD or DM following AP. Methods: We systematically searched three databases up to 4 September 2023 extracting direct, within-study comparisons of risk factors on the rate of new-onset PD and DM in AP patients. When PD and DM event rates could not be separated, we reported results for this composite outcome as PD/DM. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Of the 61 studies identified, 50 were included in the meta-analysis, covering 76,797 participants. The studies reported on 79 risk factors, and meta-analysis was feasible for 34 risk factor and outcome pairs. The odds of developing PD/DM was significantly higher after severe and moderately severe AP (OR: 4.32; CI: 1.76-10.60) than mild AP. Hypertriglyceridemic AP etiology (OR: 3.27; CI: 0.17-63.91) and pancreatic necrosis (OR: 5.53; CI: 1.59-19.21) were associated with a higher risk of developing PD/DM. Alcoholic AP etiology (OR: 1.82; CI: 1.09-3.04), organ failure (OR: 3.19; CI: 0.55-18.64), recurrent AP (OR: 1.89; CI: 0.95-3.77), obesity (OR: 1.85; CI: 1.43-2.38), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.10; CI: 1.85-2.38), liver cirrhosis (OR: 2.48; CI: 0.18-34.25), and dyslipidemia (OR: 1.82; CI: 0.68-4.84) were associated with a higher risk of developing DM. Discussion: Severe and moderately severe AP, alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemic etiologies, pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, recurrent acute pancreatitis and comorbidities of obesity, chronic kidney disease liver disease, and dyslipidemia are associated with a higher risk of developing PD or DM. Systematic review registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42021281983.