Improved mortality analysis in early-phase dose-ranging clinical trials for emergency medical diseases using Bayesian time-to-event models with active comparators.

Emergency medical diseases (EMDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. A time-to-death analysis is needed to accurately identify the risks and describe the pattern of an EMD because the mortality rate can peak early and then decline. Dose-ranging Phase II clinical trials are essential for developing new therapies for EMDs. However, most dose-finding trials do not analyze mortality as a time-to-event endpoint. We propose three Bayesian dose-response time-to-event models for a secondary mortality analysis of a clinical trial: a two-group (active treatment vs control) model, a three-parameter sigmoid EMAX model, and a hierarchical EMAX model. The study also incorporates one specific active treatment as an active comparator in constructing three new models. We evaluated the performance of these six models and a very popular independent model using simulated data motivated by a randomized Phase II clinical trial focused on identifying the most effective hyperbaric oxygen dose to achieve favorable functional outcomes in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. The results show that the three-group, EMAX, and EMAX model with an active comparator produce the smallest averaged mean squared errors and smallest mean absolute biases. We provide a new approach for time-to-event analysis in early-phase dose-ranging clinical trials for EMDs. The EMAX model with an active comparator can provide valuable insights into the mortality analysis of new EMDs or other conditions that have changing risks over time. The restricted mean survival time, a function of the model's hazards, is recommended for displaying treatment effects for EMD research.

Effects on cerebral blood flow after single doses of the ß2 agonist, clenbuterol, in healthy volunteers and patients with mild cognitive impairment or Parkinson's disease.

AIMS: Cerebral hypometabolism occurs years prior to a diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases and coincides with reduced cerebral perfusion and declining noradrenergic transmission from the locus coeruleus. In pre-clinical models, ß-adrenoceptor (ß-AR) agonists increase cerebrocortical glucose metabolism, and may have therapeutic potential for neurodegenerative diseases. This study investigated the safety and effects on regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) of the oral, brain-penetrant ß2-AR agonist, clenbuterol, in healthy volunteers (HV) and patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or Parkinson's disease (PD). METHODS: This study evaluated the safety and effects on cerebral activity of the oral, brain-penetrant, ß2-AR agonist clenbuterol (20-160 µg) in healthy volunteers and patients with MCI or PD. Regional CBF, which is tightly coupled to glucose metabolism, was measured by arterial spin labelling MRI in 32 subjects (25 HV and 8 MCI or PD) across five cohorts. In some cohorts, low doses of nadolol (1-5 mg), a ß-AR antagonist with minimal brain penetration, were administered with clenbuterol to control peripheral ß2-AR responses. RESULTS: Significant, dose-dependent increases in rCBF were seen in multiple brain regions, including hippocampus, amygdala and thalamus, following the administration of clenbuterol to HVs (mean changes from baseline in hippocampal rCBF of -1.7%, 7.3%, 22.9%, 28.4% 3 h after 20, 40, 80 and 160 µg clenbuterol, respectively). In patients with MCI or PD, increases in rCBF following 80 µg clenbuterol were observed both without and with 5 mg nadolol (in hippocampus, 18.6%/13.7% without/with nadolol). Clenbuterol was safe and well-tolerated in all subjects; known side effects of ß2-agonists, including increased heart rate and tremor, were mild in intensity and were blocked by low-dose nadolol. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of clenbuterol on rCBF were evident both in the absence and presence of low-dose nadolol, suggesting central nervous system (CNS) involvement. Concomitant inhibition of the peripheral effects of clenbuterol by nadolol confirms that meaningful ß2-AR antagonism in the periphery was achieved without interrupting the central effects of clenbuterol on rCBF.

Evaluating the strength and quality of evidence in american heart association/American stroke association's guidelines for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage and spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice recommendations guide healthcare decisions. This study aims to evaluate the strength and quality of evidence supporting the American Heart Association (AHA)/American Stroke Association (ASA) guidelines for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: We reviewed the current AHA/ASA guidelines for aSAH and spontaneous ICH and compared with previous guidelines. Guidelines were classified based on the Class of recommendation (COR) and Level of evidence (LOE). COR signifies recommendation strength (COR 1: Strong; COR 2a: Moderate; COR 2b: Weak; COR 3: No Benefit/Harm), while LOE denotes evidence quality (LOE A: High-Quality; LOE B-NR: Moderate-Quality, Not Randomized; LOE B-R: Moderate-Quality, Randomized; LOE C-EO: Expert Opinion; LOE C-LD: Limited Data). RESULTS: For aSAH, we identified 84 recommendations across 15 guideline categories. Of these, 31% were classified as COR I, 30% as COR 2a, 17% as COR 2b, and 18% as COR 3. In terms of LOE, 7% were based on LOE A, 10% on LOE B-R, 65% on LOE B-NR, 14% on LOE C-LD, and 5% on LOE C-EO. Compared to previous guidelines, there was a 46% decrease in LOE A, a 45% increase in LOE B, and an 11% decrease in LOE C. For spontaneous ICH, 124 guidelines were identified across 31 guideline categories. Of these, 28% were COR I, 32% COR 2b, and 9% COR 3. For LOE, 4% were based on LOE A, 35% on LOE B-NR, and 42% on LOE C-LD. Compared to previous guidelines, there was a 78% decrease in LOE A, an 82% increase in LOE B, and a 14% increase in LOE C. This analysis highlights that less than a third of AHA/ASA guidelines are classified as the highest class of recommendation, with less than 10% based on the highest LOE. CONCLUSION: Less than a third of AHA/ASA guidelines on aSAH and spontaneous ICH are classified as the highest class of recommendation with less than 10% based on highest LOE. There appears to be a decrease in proportion of guidelines based on highest LOE in most recent guidelines.

Optimal Randomization Designs for Large Multicenter Clinical Trials: From the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network Funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Experience.

From 2016 to 2021, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke initiated ten multicenter randomized controlled clinical trials. Optimal subject randomization designs are demanded with 4 critical properties: (1) protection of treatment assignment randomness, (2) achievement of the desired treatment allocation ratio, (3) balancing of baseline covariates, and (4) ease of implementation. For acute stroke trials, it is necessary to minimize the time between eligibility assessment and treatment initiation. This article reviews the randomization designs for 3 trials currently enrolling in Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the SATURN (Statins in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Trial), the MOST (Multiarm Optimization of Stroke Thrombolysis Trial), and the FASTEST (Recombinant Factor VIIa for Hemorrhagic Stroke Trial). Randomization methods utilized in these trials include minimal sufficient balance, block urn design, big stick design, and step-forward randomization. Their advantages and limitations are reviewed and compared with traditional stratified permuted block design and minimization.

Designing a phase-III time-to-event clinical trial using a modified sample size formula and Poisson-Gamma model for subject accrual that accounts for the lag in site initiation using the PERT distribution.

A priori estimation of sample size and subject accrual in multi-site, time-to-event clinical trials is often challenging. Such trials are powered based on the number of events needed to detect a clinically significant difference. Sample size based on number of events relates to the expected duration of observation time for each subject. Temporal patterns in site initiation and subject enrollment ultimately affect when subjects can be accrued into the study. Lag times are common as the site start-up process optimizes, resulting in delays that may curtail observational follow-up and therefore undermine power. The proposed method introduces a Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) model into the sample size estimation which accounts for the lag in site start-up. Additionally, a PERT model is introduced into a Poisson-Gamma subject accrual model to predict the quantity of study sites needed. The introduction of the PERT model provides greater flexibility in both a priori power assessment and planning the number of sites, as it specifically allows for the inclusion of anticipated delays in site start-up time. This model results in minimal power loss even when PERT distribution inputs are misspecified compared to the traditional assumption of simultaneous start-up for all sites. Together these updated formulations for sample size and subject accrual models offer an improved method for designing a multi-site time-to-event clinical trial that accounts for a flexible site start-up process.

Selection of a statistical analysis method for the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended endpoint for estimating the probability of favorable outcome in future severe TBI clinical trials.

The Glasgow outcome scale-extended (GOS-E), an ordinal scale measure, is often selected as the endpoint for clinical trials of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Traditionally, GOS-E is analyzed as a fixed dichotomy with favorable outcome defined as GOS-E ≥ 5 and unfavorable outcome as GOS-E < 5. More recent studies have defined favorable vs unfavorable outcome utilizing a sliding dichotomy of the GOS-E that defines a favorable outcome as better than a subject's predicted prognosis at baseline. Both dichotomous approaches result in loss of statistical and clinical information. To improve on power, Yeatts et al proposed a sliding scoring of the GOS-E as the distance from the cutoff for favorable/unfavorable outcomes, and therefore used more information found in the original GOS-E to estimate the probability of favorable outcome. We used data from a published TBI trial to explore the ramifications to trial operating characteristics by analyzing the sliding scoring of the GOS-E as either dichotomous, continuous, or ordinal. We illustrated a connection between the ordinal data and time-to-event (TTE) data to allow use of Bayesian software that utilizes TTE-based modeling. The simulation results showed that the continuous method with continuity correction offers higher power and lower mean squared error for estimating the probability of favorable outcome compared to the dichotomous method, and similar power but higher precision compared to the ordinal method. Therefore, we recommended that future severe TBI clinical trials consider analyzing the sliding scoring of the GOS-E endpoint as continuous with continuity correction.

Locus Coeruleus and Noradrenergic Pharmacology in Neurodegenerative Disease.

Adrenoceptors (ARs) throughout the brain are stimulated by noradrenaline originating mostly from neurons of the locus coeruleus, a brainstem nucleus that is ostensibly the earliest to show detectable pathology in neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. The α1-AR, α2-AR, and ß-AR subtypes expressed in target brain regions and on a range of cell populations define the physiological responses to noradrenaline, which includes activation of cognitive function in addition to modulation of neurometabolism, cerebral blood flow, and neuroinflammation. As these heterocellular functions are critical for maintaining brain homeostasis and neuronal health, combating the loss of noradrenergic tone from locus coeruleus degeneration may therefore be an effective treatment for both cognitive symptoms and disease modification in neurodegenerative indications. Two pharmacologic approaches are receiving attention in recent clinical studies: preserving noradrenaline levels (e.g., via reuptake inhibition) and direct activation of target adrenoceptors. Here, we review the expression and role of adrenoceptors in the brain, the preclinical studies which demonstrate that adrenergic stimulation can support cognitive function and cerebral health by reversing the effects of noradrenaline depletion, and the human data provided by pharmacoepidemiologic analyses and clinical trials which together identify adrenoceptors as promising targets for the treatment of neurodegenerative disease.

Effect of Cilostazol in Animal Models of Cerebral Ischemia and Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cilostazol, a phosphodiesterase III inhibitor, appears to be a promising agent for preventing cerebral ischemia in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Here, the authors perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantitatively assess the effects of cilostazol on brain structural and functional outcomes in animal models of cerebral ischemia and subarachnoid hemorrhage-induced cerebral vasospasm. METHODS: By using the PRISMA guidelines, a search of the PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science was conducted to identify relevant studies. Study quality of each included study for both systematic reviews were scored by using an adapted 15-item checklist from the Collaborative Approach to Meta-Analysis of Animal Data from Experimental Studies. We calculated a standardized mean difference as effect size for each comparison. For each outcome, comparisons were combined by using random-effects modeling to account for heterogeneity, with a restricted maximum likelihood estimate of between-study variance. RESULTS: A total of 22 (median [Q1, Q3] quality score of 7 [5, 8]) and 6 (median [Q1, Q3] quality score of 6 [6, 6]) studies were identified for cerebral ischemia and subarachnoid hemorrhage-induced cerebral vasospasm, respectively. Cilostazol significantly reduced the infarct volume in cerebral ischemia models with a pooled standardized mean difference estimate of - 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] [- 1.07 to - 0.70], p < 0.0001). Cilostazol significantly reduced neurofunctional deficits in cerebral ischemia models with a pooled standardized mean difference estimate of - 0.66 (95% CI [- 1.06 to - 0.28], p < 0.0001). Cilostazol significantly improved the basilar artery diameter in subarachnoid hemorrhage-induced cerebral vasospasm with a pooled standardized mean difference estimate of 2.30 (95% CI [0.94 to 3.67], p = 0.001). Cilostazol also significantly improved the basilar artery cross-section area with a pooled standardized mean estimate of 1.88 (95% CI [0.33 to 3.43], p < 0.05). Overall, there was between-study heterogeneity and asymmetry in the funnel plot observed in all comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Published animal data support the overall efficacy of cilostazol in reducing infarct volume and neurofunctional deficits in cerebral ischemia models and cerebral vasospasm in subarachnoid hemorrhage models.

Effect of Moderate and Severe Persistent Hyperglycemia on Outcomes in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the effect of persistent hyperglycemia on outcomes in 1000 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage enrolled within 4.5 hours of symptom onset. METHODS: We defined moderate and severe hyperglycemia based on serum glucose levels ≥140 mg/dL-<180 and ≥180 mg/dL, respectively, measured at baseline, 24, 48, and 72 hours. Persistent hyperglycemia was defined by 2 consecutive (24 hours apart) serum glucose levels. We evaluated the relationship between moderate and severe hyperglycemia and death or disability (defined by modified Rankin Scale score of 4-6) at 90 days in the overall cohort and in groups defined by preexisting diabetes. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, both moderate (odds ratio, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.1-2.8]) and severe (odds ratio, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.2-2.7]) hyperglycemia were associated with higher 90-day death or disability after adjusting for Glasgow Coma Scale score, hematoma volume, presence or absence of intraventricular hemorrhage, hyperlipidemia, cigarette smoking, and hypertension (no interaction between hyperglycemia and preexisting diabetes, P=0.996). Among the patients without preexisting diabetes, both moderate (odds ratio, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.0-3.2]) and severe (odds ratio, 2.0 [95% CI, 1.1-3.7]) hyperglycemia were associated with 90-day death or disability after adjusting for above mentioned potential confounders. Among the patients with preexisting diabetes, moderate and severe hyperglycemia were not associated with 90-day death or disability. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent hyperglycemia, either moderate or severe, increased the risk of death or disability in nondiabetic patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT01176565.

Lessons Learned from Phase II and Phase III Trials Investigating Therapeutic Agents for Cerebral Ischemia Associated with Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

One of the challenges in bringing new therapeutic agents (since nimodipine) in for the treatment of cerebral ischemia associated with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is the incongruence in therapeutic benefit observed between phase II and subsequent phase III clinical trials. Therefore, identifying areas for improvement in the methodology and interpretation of results is necessary to increase the value of phase II trials. We performed a systematic review of phase II trials that continued into phase III trials, evaluating a therapeutic agent for the treatment of cerebral ischemia associated with aSAH. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines for systematic reviews, and review was based on a peer-reviewed protocol (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews no. 222965). A total of nine phase III trials involving 7,088 patients were performed based on eight phase II trials involving 1558 patients. The following therapeutic agents were evaluated in the selected phase II and phase III trials: intravenous tirilazad, intravenous nicardipine, intravenous clazosentan, intravenous magnesium, oral statins, and intraventricular nimodipine. Shortcomings in several design elements of the phase II aSAH trials were identified that may explain the incongruence between phase II and phase III trial results. We suggest the consideration of the following strategies to improve phase II design: increased focus on the selection of surrogate markers of efficacy, selection of the optimal dose and timing of intervention, adjustment for exaggerated estimate of treatment effect in sample size calculations, use of prespecified go/no-go criteria using futility design, use of multicenter design, enrichment of the study population, use of concurrent control or placebo group, and use of innovative trial designs such as seamless phase II to III design. Modifying the design of phase II trials on the basis of lessons learned from previous phase II and phase III trial combinations is necessary to plan more effective phase III trials.

Early Hyperchloremia is Independently Associated with Death or Disability in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: On the basis of increased mortality associated with hyperchloremia among critically ill patients, we investigated the effect of occurrence of early hyperchloremia on death or disability at 90 days in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: We analyzed the data from Antihypertensive Treatment of Cerebral Hemorrhage 2 trial, which recruited patients with spontaneous ICH within 4.5 h of symptom onset. Patients with increased serum chloride levels (110 mmol/L or greater) at either baseline or 24, 48, or 72 h after randomization were identified. We further graded hyperchloremia into one occurrence or two or more occurrences within the first 72 h. Two logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the effects of hyperchloremia on (1) death within 90 days and (2) death or disability at 90 days after adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: Among the total of 1,000 patients analyzed, hyperchloremia within 72 h was seen in 114 patients with one occurrence and in 154 patients with two or more occurrences. Patients with one occurrence of hyperchloremia (odds ratio [OR] 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-5.5) and those with two or more occurrences (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.0) had significantly higher odds of death within 90 days after adjustment for age, race and ethnicity, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score strata, hematoma volume, presence or absence of intraventricular hemorrhage, cigarette smoking, previous stroke, and maximum hourly dose of nicardipine. Patients with two or more occurrences of hyperchloremia (OR 3.4, 95% CI 2.1-5.6) had significantly higher odds of death or disability at 90 days compared with patients without hyperchloremia after adjustment for the abovementioned potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: The independent association between hyperchloremia and death or disability at 90 days suggests that avoidance of hyperchloremia may reduce the observed death or disability in patients with ICH. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01176565.

Intensive Blood Pressure Lowering and DWI Lesions in Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Exploratory Analysis of the ATACH-2 Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing use of magnetic resonance imaging in the assessment of acute intracerebral hemorrhage, diffusion-weighted imaging hyperintense lesions have been recognized to occur at sites remote to the hematoma in up to 40% of patients. We investigated whether blood pressure reduction was associated with diffusion-weighted imaging hyperintense lesions in acute intracerebral hemorrhage and whether such lesions are associated with worse clinical outcomes by analyzing imaging data from a randomized trial. METHODS: We performed exploratory subgroup analyses in an open-label randomized trial that investigated acute blood pressure lowering in 1000 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage between May 2011 and September 2015. Eligible participants were assigned to an intensive systolic blood pressure target of 110-139 mm Hg versus 140-179 mm Hg with the use of intravenous nicardipine. Of these, 171 patients had requisite magnetic resonance imaging sequences for inclusion in these subgroup analyses. The primary outcome was the presence of diffusion-weighted imaging hyperintense lesions. Secondary outcomes included death or disability and serious adverse event at 90 days. RESULTS: Diffusion-weighted imaging hyperintense lesions were present in 25% of patients (mean age 62 years). Hematoma volume > 30 cm3 was an adjusted predictor (adjusted relative risk 2.41, 95% confidence interval 1.00-5.80) of lesion presence. Lesions occurred in 25% of intensively treated patients and 24% of standard treatment patients (relative risk 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.71-1.43, p = 0.97). Patients with diffusion-weighted imaging hyperintense lesions had similar frequencies of death or disability at 90 days, compared with patients without lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Randomized assignment to intensive acute blood pressure lowering did not result in a greater frequency of diffusion-weighted imaging hyperintense lesion. Alternative mechanisms of diffusion-weighted imaging hyperintense lesion formation other than hemodynamic fluctuations need to be explored. Clinical trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov (Ref. NCT01176565; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01176565 ).

Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical modeling for blinded and unblinded safety monitoring in randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring and reporting of drug safety during a clinical trial is essential to its success. More recent attention to drug safety has encouraged statistical methods development for monitoring and detecting potential safety signals. This paper investigates the potential impact of the process of the blinded investigator identifying a potential safety signal, which should be further investigated by the Data and Safety Monitoring Board with an unblinded safety data analysis. METHODS: In this paper, two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for safety signal detection following a pre-specified set of interim analyses that are applied to efficacy. At stage 1, a hierarchical blinded model uses blinded safety data to detect a potential safety signal and at stage 2, a hierarchical logistic model is applied to confirm the signal with unblinded safety data. RESULTS: Any interim safety monitoring analysis is usually scheduled via negotiation between the trial sponsor and the Data and Safety Monitoring Board. The proposed safety monitoring process starts once 53 subjects have been enrolled into an eight-arm phase II clinical trial for the first interim analysis. Operating characteristics describing the performance of this proposed workflow are investigated using simulations based on the different scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The two-stage Bayesian safety procedure in this paper provides a statistical view to monitor safety during the clinical trials. The proposed two-stage monitoring model has an excellent accuracy of detecting and flagging a potential safety signal at stage 1, and with the most important feature that further action at stage 2 could confirm the safety issue.

Correction to: Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical modeling for blinded and unblinded safety monitoring in randomized clinical trials.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Worldwide Organization of Neurocritical Care: Results from the PRINCE Study Part 1.

INTRODUCTION: Neurocritical care focuses on the care of critically ill patients with an acute neurologic disorder and has grown significantly in the past few years. However, there is a lack of data that describe the scope of practice of neurointensivists and epidemiological data on the types of patients and treatments used in neurocritical care units worldwide. To address these issues, we designed a multicenter, international, point-prevalence, cross-sectional, prospective, observational, non-interventional study in the setting of neurocritical care (PRINCE Study). METHODS: In this manuscript, we analyzed data from the initial phase of the study that included registration, hospital, and intensive care unit (ICU) organizations. We present here descriptive statistics to summarize data from the registration case report form. We performed the Kruskal-Wallis test followed by the Dunn procedure to test for differences in practices among world regions. RESULTS: We analyzed information submitted by 257 participating sites from 47 countries. The majority of those sites, 119 (46.3%), were in North America, 44 (17.2%) in Europe, 34 (13.3%) in Asia, 9 (3.5%) in the Middle East, 34 (13.3%) in Latin America, and 14 (5.5%) in Oceania. Most ICUs are from academic institutions (73.4%) located in large urban centers (44% > 1 million inhabitants). We found significant differences in hospital and ICU organization, resource allocation, and use of patient management protocols. The highest nursing/patient ratio was in Oceania (100% 1:1). Dedicated Advanced Practiced Providers are mostly present in North America (73.7%) and are uncommon in Oceania (7.7%) and the Middle East (0%). The presence of dedicated respiratory therapist is common in North America (85%), Middle East (85%), and Latin America (84%) but less common in Europe (26%) and Oceania (7.7%). The presence of dedicated pharmacist is highest in North America (89%) and Oceania (85%) and least common in Latin America (38%). The majority of respondents reported having a dedicated neuro-ICU (67% overall; highest in North America: 82%; and lowest in Oceania: 14%). CONCLUSION: The PRINCE Study results suggest that there is significant variability in the delivery of neurocritical care. The study also shows it is feasible to undertake international collaborations to gather global data about the practice of neurocritical care.

Global Survey of Outcomes of Neurocritical Care Patients: Analysis of the PRINCE Study Part 2.

BACKGROUND: Neurocritical care is devoted to the care of critically ill patients with acute neurological or neurosurgical emergencies. There is limited information regarding epidemiological data, disease characteristics, variability of clinical care, and in-hospital mortality of neurocritically ill patients worldwide. We addressed these issues in the Point PRevalence In Neurocritical CarE (PRINCE) study, a prospective, cross-sectional, observational study. METHODS: We recruited patients from various intensive care units (ICUs) admitted on a pre-specified date, and the investigators recorded specific clinical care activities they performed on the subjects during their first 7 days of admission or discharge (whichever came first) from their ICUs and at hospital discharge. In this manuscript, we analyzed the final data set of the study that included patient admission characteristics, disease type and severity, ICU resources, ICU and hospital length of stay, and in-hospital mortality. We present descriptive statistics to summarize data from the case report form. We tested differences between geographically grouped data using parametric and nonparametric testing as appropriate. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to evaluate factors associated with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 1545 patients admitted to 147 participating sites from 31 countries of which most were from North America (69%, N = 1063). Globally, there was variability in patient characteristics, admission diagnosis, ICU treatment team and resource allocation, and in-hospital mortality. Seventy-three percent of the participating centers were academic, and the most common admitting diagnosis was subarachnoid hemorrhage (13%). The majority of patients were male (59%), a half of whom had at least two comorbidities, and median Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 13. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality included age (OR 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.04); lower GCS (OR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.16 for every point reduction in GCS); pupillary reactivity (OR 1.8; 95% CI, 1.09 to 3.23 for bilateral unreactive pupils); admission source (emergency room versus direct admission [OR 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.75]; admission from a general ward versus direct admission [OR 5.85; 95% CI, 2.75 to 12.45; and admission from another ICU versus direct admission [OR 3.34; 95% CI, 1.27 to 8.8]); and the absence of a dedicated neurocritical care unit (NCCU) (OR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.47). CONCLUSION: PRINCE is the first study to evaluate care patterns of neurocritical patients worldwide. The data suggest that there is a wide variability in clinical care resources and patient characteristics. Neurological severity of illness and the absence of a dedicated NCCU are independent predictors of in-patient mortality.

White Matter Hyperintensities and Blood Pressure Lowering in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Secondary Analysis of the ATACH-2 Trial.

BACKGROUND: It is not clear whether subsets of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) benefit from intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering. We evaluated whether white matter hyperintensities (WMH) burden influences response to this therapy. METHODS: Retrospective secondary analysis of the Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage 2 trial. Patients were randomized to intensive (systolic BP target: 110-139 mmHg) versus standard (systolic BP target: 140-179 mmHg) BP treatment with intravenous nicardipine within 4.5 h from onset between May 2011 and September 2015. WMH were rated on magnetic resonance images (fluid-attenuated inversion recovery sequences), defining moderate-severe WMH as total Fazekas scale score ≥ 3 (range 0-6). The main outcome was death or major disability at 90 days (modified Rankin scale ≥ 3). The secondary outcome was ICH expansion, defined as hematoma growth > 33% from baseline to follow-up CT scan. Predictors of the outcomes of interest were explored with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 195/1000 patients had MRI images available for analysis, of whom 161 (82.6%) had moderate-severe WMH. When compared to patients with none-mild WMH, those with moderate-severe WMH did not have an increased risk of death or major disability (adjusted relative risk: 1.83, 95% CI 0.71-4.69) or ICH expansion (adjusted relative risk: 1.14, 95% CI 0.38-3.37). WMH burden did not modify the effect of intensive BP treatment on outcome (all p for interaction ≥ 0.2). CONCLUSION: The majority of acute ICH patients have moderate-severe WMH, but advanced small vessel disease burden marked by WMH does not influence ICH-related outcomes or response to intensive BP reduction.

Relationship Between Vascular Risk Factors and Location of Intracranial Atherosclerosis in the SAMMPRIS Trial.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported that different locations of intracranial atherosclerosis (ICAS) are associated with different demographic features and vascular risk factors. We aimed to examine this observation in the Stenting and Aggressive Medical Management for Preventing Recurrent stroke in Intracranial Stenosis (SAMMPRIS) trial population. METHODS: SAMMPRIS was a randomized controlled trial that enrolled 451 patients with recent transient ischemic attack or stroke-related due to severe (70%-99%) stenosis of a major intracranial artery. We compared the baseline demographic features and vascular risk factors between the symptomatic artery locations. Wilcoxon test was used to compare continuous variables, and chi-square test was used for categorical variables. RESULTS: Of 449 patients included in the analysis; 289 (64.4%) had ICAS in the anterior circulation and 160 (35.6%) in the posterior circulation. Features that were significantly different between patients with anterior versus posterior ICAS were: median age (58.3 years versus 64.0 years, P < .001), males/females (52.9%/47.1% versus 74.4%/25.6% P < .001), white/black (66.8%/26.6% versus 79.4%/16.9%, P = .02), and history of hyperlipidemia (85.5% versus 92.5%, P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: The observed differences in the distribution of demographic characteristics and vascular risk factors depending on the location of symptomatic ICAS suggest the possibility of different underlying pathological processes involved in the formation of atherosclerotic plaques in different locations.

Intensive Blood-Pressure Lowering in Patients with Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available to guide the choice of a target for the systolic blood-pressure level when treating acute hypertensive response in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. METHODS: We randomly assigned eligible participants with intracerebral hemorrhage (volume, <60 cm(3)) and a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 5 or more (on a scale from 3 to 15, with lower scores indicating worse condition) to a systolic blood-pressure target of 110 to 139 mm Hg (intensive treatment) or a target of 140 to 179 mm Hg (standard treatment) in order to test the superiority of intensive reduction of systolic blood pressure to standard reduction; intravenous nicardipine to lower blood pressure was administered within 4.5 hours after symptom onset. The primary outcome was death or disability (modified Rankin scale score of 4 to 6, on a scale ranging from 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]) at 3 months after randomization, as ascertained by an investigator who was unaware of the treatment assignments. RESULTS: Among 1000 participants with a mean (±SD) systolic blood pressure of 200.6±27.0 mm Hg at baseline, 500 were assigned to intensive treatment and 500 to standard treatment. The mean age of the patients was 61.9 years, and 56.2% were Asian. Enrollment was stopped because of futility after a prespecified interim analysis. The primary outcome of death or disability was observed in 38.7% of the participants (186 of 481) in the intensive-treatment group and in 37.7% (181 of 480) in the standard-treatment group (relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 1.27; analysis was adjusted for age, initial GCS score, and presence or absence of intraventricular hemorrhage). Serious adverse events occurring within 72 hours after randomization that were considered by the site investigator to be related to treatment were reported in 1.6% of the patients in the intensive-treatment group and in 1.2% of those in the standard-treatment group. The rate of renal adverse events within 7 days after randomization was significantly higher in the intensive-treatment group than in the standard-treatment group (9.0% vs. 4.0%, P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment of participants with intracerebral hemorrhage to achieve a target systolic blood pressure of 110 to 139 mm Hg did not result in a lower rate of death or disability than standard reduction to a target of 140 to 179 mm Hg. (Funded by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center; ATACH-2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01176565 .).

Bayesian hierarchical EMAX model for dose-response in early phase efficacy clinical trials.

A primary goal of a phase II dose-ranging trial is to identify a correct dose before moving forward to a phase III confirmatory trial. A correct dose is one that is actually better than control. A popular model in phase II is an independent model that puts no structure on the dose-response relationship. Unfortunately, the independent model does not efficiently use information from related doses. One very successful alternate model improves power using a pre-specified dose-response structure. Past research indicates that EMAX models are broadly successful and therefore attractive for designing dose-response trials. However, there may be instances of slight risk of nonmonotone trends that need to be addressed when planning a clinical trial design. We propose to add hierarchical parameters to the EMAX model. The added layer allows information about the treatment effect in one dose to be "borrowed" when estimating the treatment effect in another dose. This is referred to as the hierarchical EMAX model. Our paper compares three different models (independent, EMAX, and hierarchical EMAX) and two different design strategies. The first design considered is Bayesian with a fixed trial design, and it has a fixed schedule for randomization. The second design is Bayesian but adaptive, and it uses response adaptive randomization. In this article, a randomized trial of patients with severe traumatic brain injury is provided as a motivating example.