An individual segmented trajectory approach for identifying opioid use patterns using longitudinal dispensing data.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to use electronic opioid dispensing data to develop an individual segmented trajectory approach for identifying opioid use patterns. The resulting opioid use patterns can be used for examining the association between opioid use and drug overdose. METHODS: We retrospectively assembled a cohort of members on long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) between January 1, 2006 and June 30, 2019 who were 18 years and older and enrolled in one of three health care systems in the US. We have developed an individual segmented trajectory analysis for identifying various opioid use patterns by scanning over the follow-up and finding distinct opioid use patterns based on variability measured with coefficient of variation and trends of milligram morphine equivalents levels. RESULTS: Among 31, 865 members who were on LTOT between January 1, 2006 and June 30, 2019, 58.3% were female, and the average age was 55.4 years (STD = 15.4). The study population had 152 557 person-years of follow-up, with an average follow-up of 4.4 years per enrollment per person (STD = 3.4). This novel approach identified up to 13 distinct patterns including 88 756 episodes of "stable" pattern (42.1%) with an average follow-up of 11.2 months, 29 140 episodes of "increasing" pattern (13.8%) with an average follow-up of 6.0 months, 13 201 episodes of ≤10% dose reduction (6.3%) with an average follow-up of 10.4 months, 7286 episodes of 11%-20% dose reduction (3.5%) with an average follow-up of 5.3 months, 4457 episodes of 21%-30% dose reduction (2.1%) with an average follow-up of 4.0 months, and 9903 episodes of >30% dose reduction (4.7%) with an average follow-up of 2.6 months. CONCLUSIONS: A novel approach was developed to identify 13 distinct opioid use patterns using each individual's longitudinal dispensing data and these patterns can be used in examining overdose risk during the time that these patterns are ongoing.

Association Between Opioid Dose Reduction Rates and Overdose Among Patients Prescribed Long-Term Opioid Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Tapering long-term opioid therapy is an increasingly common practice, yet rapid opioid dose reductions may increase the risk of overdose. The objective of this study was to compare overdose risk following opioid dose reduction rates of ≤10%, 11% to 20%, 21% to 30%, and >30% per month to stable dosing. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in three health systems in Colorado and Wisconsin. Participants were patients ≥18 years of age prescribed long-term opioid therapy between January 1, 2006, and June 30, 2019. Five opioid dosing patterns and drug overdoses (fatal and nonfatal) were identified using electronic health records, pharmacy records, and the National Death Index. Cox proportional hazard regression was conducted on a propensity score-weighted cohort to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for follow-up periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after a dose reduction. RESULTS: In a cohort of 17 540 patients receiving long-term opioid therapy, 42.7% of patients experienced a dose reduction. Relative to stable dosing, a dose reduction rate of >30% was associated with an increased risk of overdose and the aHR estimates decreased as the follow-up increased; the aHRs for the 1-, 6- and 12-month follow-ups were 5.33 (95% CI, 1.98-14.34), 1.81 (95% CI,1.08-3.03), and 1.49 (95% CI, 0.97-2.27), respectively. The slower tapering rates were not associated with overdose risk. CONCLUSIONS: Patients receiving long-term opioid therapy exposed to dose reduction rates of >30% per month had increased overdose risk relative to patients exposed to stable dosing. Results support the use of slow dose reductions to minimize the risk of overdose.

Association Between Estimated Cumulative Vaccine Antigen Exposure Through the First 23 Months of Life and Non-Vaccine-Targeted Infections From 24 Through 47 Months of Age.

Importance: Some parents are concerned that multiple vaccines in early childhood could weaken their child's immune system. Biological data suggest that increased vaccine antigen exposure could increase the risk for infections not targeted by vaccines. Objective: To examine estimated cumulative vaccine antigen exposure through the first 23 months of life in children with and without non-vaccine-targeted infections from 24 through 47 months of age. Design, Setting, and Participants: A nested case-control study was conducted in 6 US health care organizations participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. Cases were identified by International Classification of Diseases codes for infectious diseases in the emergency department and inpatient medical settings and then validated by medical record review. Cases of non-vaccine-targeted infection were matched to controls by age, sex, health care organization site, and chronic disease status. Participants were children ages 24 through 47 months, born between January 1, 2003, and September 31, 2013, followed up until December 31, 2015. Exposures: Cumulative vaccine antigen exposure, estimated by summing the number of antigens in each vaccine dose received from birth through age 23 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: Non-vaccine-targeted infections, including upper and lower respiratory infections and gastrointestinal infections, from 24 through 47 months of age, and the association between these infections and estimated cumulative vaccine exposure from birth through 23 months. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate matched odds ratios representing the odds of non-vaccine-targeted infections for every 30-unit increase in estimated cumulative number of antigens received. Results: Among the 944 patients (193 cases and 751 controls), the mean (SD) age was 32.5 (6.3) months, 422 (45%) were female, and 61 (7%) had a complex chronic condition. Through the first 23 months, the estimated mean (SD) cumulative vaccine antigen exposure was 240.6 (48.3) for cases and 242.9 (51.1) for controls. The between-group difference for estimated cumulative antigen exposure was -2.3 (95% CI, -10.1 to 5.4; P = .55). Among children with vs without non-vaccine-targeted infections from 24 through 47 months of age, the matched odds ratio for estimated cumulative antigen exposure through age 23 months was not significant (matched odds ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.07). Conclusions and Relevance: Among children from 24 through 47 months of age with emergency department and inpatient visits for infectious diseases not targeted by vaccines, compared with children without such visits, there was no significant difference in estimated cumulative vaccine antigen exposure through the first 23 months of life.

Validation of Health Event Capture in the Marshfield Epidemiologic Study Area.

OBJECTIVE: In this study, health event capture is broadly defined as the degree to which a group of people use a particular provider network as their primary source of health care services. The Marshfield Epidemiologic Study Area (MESA) is a valuable resource for population-based health research, but the completeness of health event capture has not been validated in recent years. Our objective was to determine the current level of outpatient and inpatient health event capture by Marshfield Clinic (MC) facilities and affiliated hospitals for people living within MESA. DESIGN: A stratified sample survey with strata defined by MESA region (Central or North) and age group (<18 years or ≥18 years). SETTING: 24 ZIP codes in central and northern Wisconsin, USA. PARTICIPANTS: 2,485 individuals participated of the 4,313 sampled cohort members residing in MESA Central (N=61,041) and MESA North (N=25,906) on February 22, 2011. METHODS: A health care utilization survey was mailed to a random sample stratified by age group and MESA region. Telephone interviews were attempted for nonrespondents. The survey requested information on sources of outpatient care and overnight hospital admissions. Population proportions representing health event capture metrics and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated with analytic weights applied to account for the survey design. RESULTS: Among those with an outpatient visit during the past 24 months, the most recent visit of an estimated 93% (95% CI, 91% - 94%) was at a MC facility. The most recent admission of an estimated 93% (95% CI, 90% - 96%) of those hospitalized in the past 24 months was at a hospital affiliated with MC. The proportion admitted to MC affiliated hospitals was higher for residents of MESA Central (97%) compared to MESA North (83%). CONCLUSION: A high proportion of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions in MESA Central and MESA North are accessible in the MC electronic health record. This pattern of high health event capture has been demonstrated since the inception of MESA in 1991. The results from this study validate and support the continued use of MESA for population-based epidemiologic and clinical research.

Impact of repeated vaccination on vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) and B during 8 seasons.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that influenza vaccination in the previous season may influence the effectiveness of current-season vaccination, but this has not been assessed in a single population over multiple years. METHODS: Patients presenting with acute respiratory illness were prospectively enrolled during the 2004-2005 through 2012-2013 influenza seasons. Respiratory swabs were tested for influenza and vaccination dates obtained from a validated registry. Vaccination status was determined for the current, previous, and prior 5 seasons. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated for participants aged ≥9 years using logistic regression models with an interaction term for vaccination history. RESULTS: There were 7315 enrollments during 8 seasons; 1056 (14%) and 650 (9%) were positive for influenza A(H3N2) and B, respectively. Vaccination during current only, previous only, or both seasons yielded similar protection against H3N2 (adjusted VE range, 31%-36%) and B (52%-66%). In the analysis using 5 years of historical vaccination data, current season VE against H3N2 was significantly higher among vaccinated individuals with no prior vaccination history (65%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 36%-80%) compared with vaccinated individuals with a frequent vaccination history (24%; 95% CI, 3%-41%; P = .01). VE against B was 75% (95% CI, 50%-87%) and 48% (95% CI, 29%-62%), respectively (P = .05). Similar findings were observed when analysis was restricted to adults 18-49 years. CONCLUSIONS: Current- and previous-season vaccination generated similar levels of protection, and vaccine-induced protection was greatest for individuals not vaccinated during the prior 5 years. Additional studies are needed to understand the long-term effects of annual vaccination.

National Analysis of Clinical Outcomes Associated With Cirrhotic Blunt Trauma Patients Undergoing Emergency Laparotomy Versus Non-operative Management: A Propensity Case-Matched Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to evaluate clinical outcomes among severely injured trauma patients presenting with isolated blunt abdominal solid organ injuries with a pre-diagnosis of liver cirrhosis (LC) undergoing emergency laparotomy vs nonoperative management (NOM). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study utilized the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Program Participant Use File (ACS-TQIP-PUF) dataset from 2017 to 2021. Adults (≥18 years) with a pre-existing diagnosis of LC who presented with severe blunt (ISS ≥ 16) isolated solid organ abdominal injuries and underwent laparotomy or NOM were included. Outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit length of stay (ICU-LOS), and in-hospital complications such as acute renal failure and deep vein thrombosis. RESULTS: 929 patients were included in this analysis, with 355 undergoing laparotomy and 574 managed nonoperatively. Laparotomy patients suffered greater in-hospital mortality (n = 186, 52.3% vs n = 115, 20.0%; P < .01), required significantly more blood within 4 hours (8.9 units vs 4.3 units, P < .01), and had a significantly longer ICU-LOS (10.2 days vs 6.7 days, P < .01). In the 1:1 propensity score matched analysis of 556 matched patients, in-hospital mortality was greater for laparotomy patients (52.3% vs 20.0%, P < .01). CONCLUSION: Laparotomy was associated with significantly higher in-hospital mortality in propensity-matched trauma patients, longer ICU-LOS, and more blood products given at 4 hours compared to NOM. These findings illustrate that NOM may be a safe approach in managing severely injured trauma patients with isolated blunt abdominal solid organ injuries and a pre-diagnosis of LC.

Antibody response to sequential vaccination with cell culture, recombinant, or egg-based influenza vaccines among U.S. adults.

The immune response to inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV) is influenced by multiple factors, including hemagglutinin content and egg-based manufacturing. Only two US-licensed vaccines are manufactured without egg passage: cell culture-based inactivated vaccine (ccIIV) and recombinant vaccine (RIV). We conducted a randomized open-label trial in central Wisconsin during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons to compare immunogenicity of sequential vaccination. Participants 18-64 years old were randomized 1:1:1 to receive RIV, ccIIV or IIV in strata defined by number of influenza vaccine doses in the prior 3 years. They were revaccinated with the same product in year two. Paired serum samples were tested by hemagglutination inhibition against egg-adapted and cell-grown vaccine viruses. Serologic endpoints included geometric mean titer (GMT), mean fold rise, and percent seroconversion. There were 373 participants randomized and vaccinated in 2018-19; 332 were revaccinated in 2019-20. In 2018-19, RIV and ccIIV were not more immunogenic than IIV against A/H1N1. The post-vaccination GMT against the cell-grown 3C.2a A/H3N2 vaccine virus was higher for RIV vs IIV (p = .001) and RIV vs ccIIV (p = .001). The antibody response to influenza B viruses was similar across study arms. In 2019-20, GMT against the cell-grown 3C.3a A/H3N2 vaccine virus was higher for RIV vs IIV (p = .03) and for RIV vs ccIIV (p = .001). RIV revaccination generated significantly greater backboosting to the antigenically distinct 3C.2a A/H3N2 virus (2018-19 vaccine strain) compared to ccIIV or IIV. This study adds to the evidence that RIV elicits a superior immunologic response against A/H3N2 viruses compared to other licensed influenza vaccine products.

Long-term Neutralizing Antibody Levels Against Measles and Rubella Viruses Among Adults With 3 Doses of Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine.

Background: A third dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR) may be administered for various reasons, but data on long-term immunity are limited. We assessed neutralizing antibody levels against measles and rubella among adults up to 11 years after receipt of a third MMR dose. Methods: In this longitudinal study, healthy adults who received a third MMR dose as young adults (ages 18-28 years) were recalled around 5 years and 9-11 years after the third dose. Measles and rubella antibody levels were assessed by plaque-reduction and immunocolorimetric neutralization assays, respectively. Antibody concentrations <120 mIU/mL and <10 U/mL were considered potentially susceptible to measles and rubella, respectively. Geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) over time were estimated from generalized estimating equation models. Results: Approximately 5 and 9-11 years after receipt of the third dose, 405 and 304 adults were assessed, respectively. Measles GMC was 428 mIU/mL (95% CI, 392-468 mIU/mL) 5 years postvaccination, declining to 381 mIU/mL (95% CI, 339-428 mIU/mL) 11 years postvaccination. At the last follow-up visit (9-11 years postvaccination), 10% of participants were potentially susceptible to measles infection. Rubella GMCs were stable throughout the follow-up period (63 U/mL to 65 U/mL); none of the participants was susceptible to rubella at the last follow-up visit. Conclusions: Eleven years after receiving a third MMR dose, measles and rubella neutralizing antibody levels remained high in adults. However, on the basis of waning antibody levels, some adults may become susceptible to measles infection over time despite receipt of 3 vaccine doses.

Mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination: A self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: Although previous studies found no-increased mortality risk after COVID-19 vaccination, residual confounding bias might have impacted the findings. Using a modified self-controlled case series (SCCS) design, we assessed the risk of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes after primary series COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: We analyzed all deaths between December 14, 2020, and August 11, 2021, among individuals from eight Vaccine Safety Datalink sites. Demographic characteristics of deaths in recipients of COVID-19 vaccines and unvaccinated individuals were reported. We conducted SCCS analyses by vaccine type and death outcomes and reported relative incidences (RI). The observation period for death spanned from the dates of emergency use authorization to the end of the study period (August 11, 2021) without censoring the observation period upon death. We pre-specified a primary risk interval of 28-day and a secondary risk interval of 14-day after each vaccination dose. Adjusting for seasonality in mortality analyses is crucial because death rates vary over time. Deaths among unvaccinated individuals were included in SCCS analyses to account for seasonality by incorporating calendar month in the models. RESULTS: For Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2), RIs of non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes were below 1 and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) excluded 1 across both doses and both risk intervals. For Moderna (mRNA-1273), RI point estimates of all outcomes were below 1, although the 95 % CIs of two RI estimates included 1: cardiac-related (RI = 0.78, 95 % CI, 0.58-1.04) and non-COVID-19 cardiac-related mortality (RI = 0.80, 95 % CI, 0.60-1.08) 14 days after the second dose in individuals without pre-existing cancer and heart disease. For Janssen (Ad26.COV2.S), RIs of four cardiac-related death outcomes ranged from 0.94 to 0.98 for the 14-day risk interval, and 0.68 to 0.72 for the 28-day risk interval and 95 % CIs included 1. CONCLUSION: Using a modified SCCS design and adjusting for temporal trends, no-increased risk was found for non-COVID-19 mortality, all-cause mortality, and four cardiac-related death outcomes among recipients of the three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US.

Post-COVID conditions following COVID-19 vaccination: a retrospective matched cohort study of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

COVID-19 vaccinations protect against severe illness and death, but associations with post-COVID conditions (PCC) are less clear. We aimed to evaluate the association between prior COVID-19 vaccination and new-onset PCC among individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection across eight large healthcare systems in the United States. This retrospective matched cohort study used electronic health records (EHR) from patients with SARS-CoV-2 positive tests during March 2021-February 2022. Vaccinated and unvaccinated COVID-19 cases were matched on location, test date, severity of acute infection, age, and sex. Vaccination status was ascertained using EHR and integrated data on externally administered vaccines. Adjusted relative risks (RRs) were obtained from Poisson regression. PCC was defined as a new diagnosis in one of 13 PCC categories 30 days to 6 months following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. The study included 161,531 vaccinated COVID-19 cases and 161,531 matched unvaccinated cases. Compared to unvaccinated cases, vaccinated cases had a similar or lower risk of all PCC categories except mental health disorders (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10). Vaccination was associated with ≥10% lower risk of sensory (RR: 0.90, 0.86-0.95), circulatory (RR: 0.88, 0.83-0.94), blood and hematologic (RR: 0.79, 0.71-0.89), skin and subcutaneous (RR: 0.69, 0.66-0.72), and non-specific COVID-19 related disorders (RR: 0.53, 0.51-0.56). In general, associations were stronger at younger ages but mostly persisted regardless of SARS-CoV-2 variant period, receipt of ≥3 vs. 1-2 vaccine doses, or time since vaccination. Pre-infection vaccination was associated with reduced risk of several PCC outcomes and hence may decrease the long-term consequences of COVID-19.

Influenza vaccination is not associated with detection of noninfluenza respiratory viruses in seasonal studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: The test-negative control study design is the basis for observational studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Recent studies have suggested that influenza vaccination increases the risk of noninfluenza respiratory virus infection. Such an effect could create bias in VE studies using influenza-negative controls. We investigated the association between influenza infection, vaccination, and detection of other respiratory viruses among children <5 years old and adults ≥50 years old with acute respiratory illness who participated in seasonal studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness. METHODS: Nasal/nasopharyngeal samples collected from 2004­2005 through 2009­2010 were tested for 19 respiratory virus targets using a multiplex reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) platform. Vaccination status was determined using a validated registry. Adjusted odds ratios for influenza and vaccination status were calculated using three different control groups: influenza-negative, other respiratory virus positive, and pan-negative. RESULTS: Influenza was detected in 12% of 2010 children and 20% of 1738 adults. Noninfluenza respiratory viruses were detected in 70% of children and 38% of adults without influenza. The proportion vaccinated did not vary between virus-positive controls and pan-negative controls in children (P = .62) or adults (P = .33). Influenza infection was associated with reduced odds of vaccination, but adjusted odds ratios differed by no more than 0.02 when the analysis used influenza-negative or virus-positive controls. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination was not associated with detection of noninfluenza respiratory viruses. Use of influenza-negative controls did not generate a biased estimate of vaccine effectiveness due to an effect of vaccination on other respiratory virus infections.

A scan statistic for identifying optimal risk windows in vaccine safety studies using self-controlled case series design.

In the examination of the association between vaccines and rare adverse events after vaccination in postlicensure observational studies, it is challenging to define appropriate risk windows because prelicensure RCTs provide little insight on the timing of specific adverse events. Past vaccine safety studies have often used prespecified risk windows based on prior publications, biological understanding of the vaccine, and expert opinion. Recently, a data-driven approach was developed to identify appropriate risk windows for vaccine safety studies that use the self-controlled case series design. This approach employs both the maximum incidence rate ratio and the linear relation between the estimated incidence rate ratio and the inverse of average person time at risk, given a specified risk window. In this paper, we present a scan statistic that can identify appropriate risk windows in vaccine safety studies using the self-controlled case series design while taking into account the dependence of time intervals within an individual and while adjusting for time-varying covariates such as age and seasonality. This approach uses the maximum likelihood ratio test based on fixed-effects models, which has been used for analyzing data from self-controlled case series design in addition to conditional Poisson models.

Safety signal identification for COVID-19 bivalent booster vaccination using tree-based scan statistics in the Vaccine Safety Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Traditional active vaccine safety monitoring involves pre-specifying health outcomes and biologically plausible outcome-specific time windows of concern, limiting the adverse events that can be evaluated. In this study, we used tree-based scan statistics to look broadly for >60,000 possible adverse events after bivalent COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: Vaccine Safety Datalink enrollees aged ≥5 years receiving Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent COVID-19 vaccine through November 2022 were followed for 56 days post-vaccination. Incident diagnoses in inpatient or emergency department settings were analyzed for clustering within the hierarchical ICD-10-CM diagnosis code "tree" and temporally within post-vaccination follow-up. The conditional self-controlled tree-temporal scan statistic was used, conditioning on total number of cases of each diagnosis and total number of cases of any diagnosis occurring during the scanning risk window across the entire tree. P = 0.01 was the pre-specified cut-off for statistical significance. RESULTS: Analysis included 352,509 doses of Moderna and 979,189 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent vaccines. After Moderna vaccination, no statistically significant clusters were found. After Pfizer-BioNTech, there were clusters of unspecified adverse events (Days 1-3, p = 0.0001-0.0007), influenza (Days 35-56, p = 0.0001), cough (Days 44-55, p = 0.0002), and COVID-19 (Days 52-56, p = 0.0004). CONCLUSIONS: For Pfizer-BioNTech only, we detected clusters of: (1) unspecified adverse effects, as have been observed in other vaccine studies using this method, and (2) respiratory disease toward the end of follow-up. The respiratory clusters were likely due to overlap of follow-up with the spread of respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, and COVID-19, i.e., confounding by seasonality. The untargeted nature of the method and its inherent adjustment for the many diagnoses and risk intervals evaluated are unique advantages. Limitations include susceptibility to time-varying confounding, lower statistical power for assessing risks of specific outcomes than in traditional studies targeting fewer outcomes, and the possibility of missing adverse events not strongly clustered in time or within the "tree."

Association Between Aluminum Exposure From Vaccines Before Age 24 Months and Persistent Asthma at Age 24 to 59 Months.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between cumulative aluminum exposure from vaccines before age 24 months and persistent asthma at age 24 to 59 months. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD). Vaccination histories were used to calculate cumulative vaccine-associated aluminum in milligrams (mg). The persistent asthma definition required one inpatient or 2 outpatient asthma encounters, and ≥2 long-term asthma control medication dispenses. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the association between aluminum exposure and asthma incidence, stratified by eczema presence/absence. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) per 1 mg increase in aluminum exposure were calculated, adjusted for birth month/year, sex, race/ethnicity, VSD site, prematurity, medical complexity, food allergy, severe bronchiolitis, and health care utilization. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 326,991 children, among whom 14,337 (4.4%) had eczema. For children with and without eczema, the mean (standard deviation [SD]) vaccine-associated aluminum exposure was 4.07 mg (SD 0.60) and 3.98 mg (SD 0.72), respectively. Among children with and without eczema, 6.0% and 2.1%, respectively, developed persistent asthma. Among children with eczema, vaccine-associated aluminum was positively associated with persistent asthma (aHR 1.26 per 1 mg increase in aluminum, 95% CI 1.07, 1.49); a positive association was also detected among children without eczema (aHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14, 1.25). CONCLUSION: In a large observational study, a positive association was found between vaccine-related aluminum exposure and persistent asthma. While recognizing the small effect sizes identified and the potential for residual confounding, additional investigation of this hypothesis appears warranted.

Effectiveness of first and second COVID-19 mRNA vaccine monovalent booster doses during a period of circulation of Omicron variant sublineages: December 2021-July 2022.

Background: US recommendations for COVID-19 vaccine boosters have expanded in terms of age groups covered and numbers of doses recommended, whereas evolution of Omicron sublineages raises questions about ongoing vaccine effectiveness. Methods: We estimated effectiveness of monovalent COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccination versus two-dose primary series during a period of Omicron variant virus circulation in a community cohort with active illness surveillance. Hazard ratios comparing SARS-CoV-2 infection between booster versus primary series vaccinated individuals were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying booster status. Models were adjusted for age and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. The effectiveness of a second booster among adults ≥50 years of age was similarly estimated. Results: The analysis included 883 participants ranging in age, from 5 to >90 years. Relative effectiveness was 51% (95% CI: 34%, 64%) favoring the booster compared with primary series vaccination and did not vary by prior infection status. Relative effectiveness was 74% (95% CI: 57%, 84%) at 15 to 90 days after booster receipt, but declined to 42% (95% CI: 16%, 61%) after 91 to 180 days, and to 36% (95% CI: 3%, 58%) after 180 days. The relative effectiveness of a second booster compared to a single booster was 24% (95% CI: -40% to 61%). Conclusions: An mRNA vaccine booster dose added significant protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, but protection decreased over time. A second booster did not add significant protection for adults ≥50 years of age. Uptake of recommended bivalent boosters should be encouraged to increase protection against Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineages.

Opioid Dose Trajectories and Associations With Mortality, Opioid Use Disorder, Continued Opioid Therapy, and Health Plan Disenrollment.

Importance: Uncertainty remains about the longer-term benefits and harms of different opioid management strategies, such as tapering and dose escalation. For instance, opioid tapering could help patients reduce opioid exposure to prevent opioid use disorder, but patients may also seek care elsewhere and engage in nonprescribed opioid use. Objective: To evaluate the association between opioid dose trajectories observed in practice and patient outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted in 3 health systems in Colorado and Wisconsin. The study population included patients receiving long-term opioid therapy between 50 and 200 morphine milligram equivalents between August 1, 2014, and July 31, 2017. Follow-up ended on December 31, 2019. Data were analyzed from January 2020 to August 2022. Exposures: Group-based trajectory modeling identified 5 dosing trajectories over 1 year: 1 decreasing, 1 high-dose increasing, and 3 stable. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes assessed after the trajectory period were 1-year all-cause mortality, incident opioid use disorder, continued opioid therapy at 1 year, and health plan disenrollment. Associations were tested using Cox proportional hazards regression and log-binomial models, adjusting for baseline covariates. Results: A total of 3913 patients (mean [SD] age, 59.2 [14.4] years; 2767 White non-Hispanic [70.7%]; 2237 female patients [57.2%]) were included in the study. Compared with stable trajectories, the decreasing dose trajectory was negatively associated with opioid use disorder (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.40; 95% CI, 0.29-0.55) and continued opioid therapy (site 1: adjusted relative risk [aRR], 0.39; 95% CI, 0.34-0.44), but was positively associated with health plan disenrollment (aHR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.24-2.22). The decreasing trajectory was not associated with mortality (aHR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.87-1.86). In contrast, the high-dose increasing trajectory was positively associated with mortality (aHR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.44-3.32) and opioid use disorder (aHR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.39-2.37) but was not associated with disenrollment (aHR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.56-1.42) or continued opioid therapy (site 1: aRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.94-1.03). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, decreasing opioid dose was associated with reduced risk of opioid use disorder and continued opioid therapy but increased risk of disenrollment compared with stable dosing, whereas the high-dose increasing trajectory was associated with an increased risk of mortality and opioid use disorder. These findings can inform opioid management decision-making.

mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection in a prospective community cohort, rural Wisconsin, November 2020 to December 2021.

Reduced COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) has been observed with increasing predominance of SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant. Two-dose VE against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (symptomatic and asymptomatic) was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying vaccination status in a prospective rural community cohort of 1266 participants aged ≥12 years. Between November 3, 2020 and December 7, 2021, VE was 56% for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines overall, 65% for Moderna, and 50% for Pfizer-BioNTech. VE when Delta predominated (June to December 2021) was 54% for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines overall, 59% for Moderna, and 52% for Pfizer-BioNTech.

Trends in Mortality at a Level II Rural Trauma Center.

BACKGROUND: Most studies of deaths from traumatic injury are from urban trauma centers. In contrast, rural areas have higher incidence of traumatic fatal injuries than urban areas. The objective of this research was to describe trends of injuries and mortality from a trauma center serving a largely rural population and compare results with reports from the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of patients admitted to a rural Wisconsin level II trauma center from 2000 through 2018. Details on injuries and deaths prior to discharge were obtained from the trauma registry. Event counts and fatality ratios were described by year, sex, age, mechanism of injury, and injury severity score (ISS). Trends were analyzed across 2000-2005, 2006-2011, and 2012-2018 calendar year eras. RESULTS: During 2000-2018, there were 17,334 injury events among 16,495 patients included in the trauma registry. Across the 3 eras, the proportion of injuries related to falls increased (35.6%, 40.6%, and 51.5%, respectively), and the proportion from on-road motor vehicle events decreased (37.0 %, 32.8, and 22.5%, respectively), similar to the trends from 3 corresponding NTDB reports for 2004, 2010, and 2016. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend (P < 0.001) in overall fatality ratios across the 3 eras, 5.3% (95% CI, 4.7%-6.0%), 4.1% (95% CI, 3.7%-4.6%), and 3.9 (95% CI, 3.4%-4.4%), respectively. The fatality ratios point estimates were similar to overall fatality ratios from the NTDB reports (4.7%, 4.0%, 4.3%, respectively). The median patient age increased significantly from 42, 45, and 55 years across the 3 eras (test for trend P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Long-term trends of traumatic injuries and mortality were generally similar to national trends, particularly in the shift to older patients and in the increasing proportion of injury events due to falls. Further research on traumatic injuries and deaths in rural populations is needed, particularly regarding immediate deaths at the scene and longer-term deaths after discharge.

The Childhood Vaccination Schedule and the Lack of Association With Type 1 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: Safety studies assessing the association between the entire recommended childhood immunization schedule and autoimmune diseases, such as type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), are lacking. To examine the association between the recommended immunization schedule and T1DM, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of children born between 2004 and 2014 in 8 US health care organizations that participate in the Vaccine Safety Datalink. METHODS: Three measures of the immunization schedule were assessed: average days undervaccinated (ADU), cumulative antigen exposure, and cumulative aluminum exposure. T1DM incidence was identified by International Classification of Disease codes. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze associations between the 3 exposure measures and T1DM incidence. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Models were adjusted for sex, race and ethnicity, birth year, mother's age, birth weight, gestational age, number of well-child visits, and study site. RESULTS: In a cohort of 584 171 children, the mean ADU was 38 days, the mean cumulative antigen exposure was 263 antigens (SD = 54), and the mean cumulative aluminum exposure was 4.11 mg (SD = 0.73). There were 1132 incident cases of T1DM. ADU (aHR = 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.02) and cumulative antigen exposure (aHR = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-1.00) were not associated with T1DM. Cumulative aluminum exposure >3.00 mg was inversely associated with T1DM (aHR = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: The recommended schedule is not positively associated with the incidence of T1DM in children. These results support the safety of the recommended childhood immunization schedule.

Vaccine Safety Datalink infrastructure enhancements for evaluating the safety of maternal vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Identifying pregnancy episodes and accurately estimating their beginning and end dates are imperative for observational maternal vaccine safety studies using electronic health record (EHR) data. METHODS: We modified the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) Pregnancy Episode Algorithm (PEA) to include both the International Classification of Disease, ninth revision (ICD-9 system) and ICD-10 diagnosis codes, incorporated additional gestational age data, and validated this enhanced algorithm with manual medical record review. We also developed the new Dynamic Pregnancy Algorithm (DPA) to identify pregnancy episodes in real time. RESULTS: Around 75% of the pregnancy episodes identified by the enhanced VSD PEA were live births, 12% were spontaneous abortions (SABs), 10% were induced abortions (IABs), and 0.4% were stillbirths (SBs). Gestational age was identified for 99% of live births, 89% of SBs, 69% of SABs, and 42% of IABs. Agreement between the PEA-assigned and abstractor-identified pregnancy outcome and outcome date was 100% for live births, but was lower for pregnancy losses. When gestational age was available in the medical record, the agreement was higher for live births (97%), but lower for pregnancy losses (75%). The DPA demonstrated strong concordance with the PEA and identified pregnancy episodes ⩾6 months prior to the outcome date for 89% of live births. CONCLUSION: The enhanced VSD PEA is a useful tool for identifying pregnancy episodes in EHR databases. The DPA improves the timeliness of pregnancy identification and can be used for near real-time maternal vaccine safety studies. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Improving identification of pregnancies in the Vaccine Safety Datalink electronic medical record databases to allow for better and faster monitoring of vaccination safety during pregnancy Introduction: It is important to monitor of the safety of vaccines after they have been approved and licensed by the Food and Drug Administration, especially among women vaccinated during pregnancy. The Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) monitors vaccine safety through observational studies within large databases of electronic medical records. Since 2012, VSD researchers have used an algorithm called the Pregnancy Episode Algorithm (PEA) to identify the medical records of women who have been pregnant. Researchers then use these medical records to study whether receiving a particular vaccine is linked to any negative outcomes for the woman or her child.Methods: The goal of this study was to update and enhance the PEA to include the full set of medical record diagnostic codes [both from the older International Classification of Disease, ninth revision (ICD-9 system) and the newer ICD-10 system] and to incorporate additional sources of data about gestational age. To ensure the validity of the PEA following these enhancements, we manually reviewed medical records and compared the results with the algorithm. We also developed a new algorithm, the Dynamic Pregnancy Algorithm (DPA), to identify women earlier in pregnancy, allowing us to conduct more timely vaccine safety assessments.Results: The new version of the PEA identified 2,485,410 pregnancies in the VSD database. The enhanced algorithm more precisely estimated the beginning of pregnancies, especially those that did not result in live births, due to the new sources of gestational age data.Conclusion: Our new algorithm, the DPA, was successful at identifying pregnancies earlier in gestation than the PEA. The enhanced PEA and the new DPA will allow us to better evaluate the safety of current and future vaccinations administered during or around the time of pregnancy.