Risk of severe COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases treated with immunosuppressive therapy in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRDs) treated with immunosuppressive drugs. METHOD: A list of 4633 patients on targeted - biological or targeted synthetic - DMARDs in March 2020 was linked to a case-control study that includes all cases of COVID-19 in Scotland. RESULTS: By 22 November 2021, 433 of the 4633 patients treated with targeted DMARDS had been diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 58 had been hospitalized. With all those in the population not on DMARDs as the reference category, the rate ratio for hospitalized COVID-19 associated with DMARD treatment was 2.14 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-2.26] in those on conventional synthetic (cs) DMARDs, 2.01 (95% CI 1.38-2.91) in those on tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors as the only targeted agent, and 3.83 (95% CI 2.65-5.56) in those on other targeted DMARDs. Among those on csDMARDs, rate ratios for hospitalized COVID-19 were lowest at 1.66 (95% CI 1.51-1.82) in those on methotrexate and highest at 5.4 (95% CI 4.4-6.7) in those on glucocorticoids at an average dose > 10 mg/day prednisolone equivalent. CONCLUSION: The risk of hospitalized COVID-19 is elevated in IRD patients treated with immunosuppressive drugs compared with the general population. Of these drugs, methotrexate, hydroxychloroquine, and TNF inhibitors carry the lowest risk. The highest risk is associated with prednisolone. A larger study is needed to estimate reliably the risks associated with each class of targeted DMARD.

Genome-wide association and meta-analysis in populations from Starr County, Texas, and Mexico City identify type 2 diabetes susceptibility loci and enrichment for expression quantitative trait loci in top signals.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analyses to identify and characterise risk loci for type 2 diabetes in Mexican-Americans from Starr County, TX, USA. METHOD: Using 1.8 million directly interrogated and imputed genotypes in 837 unrelated type 2 diabetes cases and 436 normoglycaemic controls, we conducted Armitage trend tests. To improve power in this population with high disease rates, we also performed ordinal regression including an intermediate class with impaired fasting glucose and/or glucose tolerance. These analyses were followed by meta-analysis with a study of 967 type 2 diabetes cases and 343 normoglycaemic controls from Mexico City, Mexico. RESULT: The top signals (unadjusted p value <1 × 10(-5)) included 49 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in eight gene regions (PER3, PARD3B, EPHA4, TOMM7, PTPRD, HNT [also known as RREB1], LOC729993 and IL34) and six intergenic regions. Among these was a missense polymorphism (rs10462020; Gly639Val) in the clock gene PER3, a system recently implicated in diabetes. We also report a second signal (minimum p value 1.52 × 10(-6)) within PTPRD, independent of the previously implicated SNP, in a population of Han Chinese. Top meta-analysis signals included known regions HNF1A and KCNQ1. Annotation of top association signals in both studies revealed a marked excess of trans-acting eQTL in both adipose and muscle tissues. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In the largest study of type 2 diabetes in Mexican populations to date, we identified modest associations of novel and previously reported SNPs. In addition, in our top signals we report significant excess of SNPs that predict transcript levels in muscle and adipose tissues.

Genome-wide association study of type 2 diabetes in a sample from Mexico City and a meta-analysis of a Mexican-American sample from Starr County, Texas.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We report a genome-wide association study of type 2 diabetes in an admixed sample from Mexico City and describe the results of a meta-analysis of this study and another genome-wide scan in a Mexican-American sample from Starr County, TX, USA. The top signals observed in this meta-analysis were followed up in the Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis Consortium (DIAGRAM) and DIAGRAM+ datasets. METHODS: We analysed 967 cases and 343 normoglycaemic controls. The samples were genotyped with the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP array 5.0. Associations of genotyped and imputed markers with type 2 diabetes were tested using a missing data likelihood score test. A fixed-effects meta-analysis including 1,804 cases and 780 normoglycaemic controls was carried out by weighting the effect estimates by their inverse variances. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis of the two Hispanic studies, markers showing suggestive associations (p < 10(-5)) were identified in two known diabetes genes, HNF1A and KCNQ1, as well as in several additional regions. Meta-analysis of the two Hispanic studies and the recent DIAGRAM+ dataset identified genome-wide significant signals (p < 5 × 10(-8)) within or near the genes HNF1A and CDKN2A/CDKN2B, as well as suggestive associations in three additional regions, IGF2BP2, KCNQ1 and the previously unreported C14orf70. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We observed numerous regions with suggestive associations with type 2 diabetes. Some of these signals correspond to regions described in previous studies. However, many of these regions could not be replicated in the DIAGRAM datasets. It is critical to carry out additional studies in Hispanic and American Indian populations, which have a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes.

Echocardiographic measures of left ventricular structure and their relation with rest and ambulatory blood pressure in blacks and whites in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVES: This study attempted to determine whether people of black African descent have more left ventricular hypertrophy than those of white European descent and whether this can be explained by rest or ambulatory blood pressure. BACKGROUND: Mortality associated with hypertension is higher in black populations than among whites, but differences in morbidity and their associations with blood pressure are inconsistent. METHODS: We examined 1,166 black and white men and women 40 to 64 years old in a community survey in London, United Kingdom. Echocardiograms were obtained for all subjects and ambulatory blood pressure recordings for 319. RESULTS: Adjusted for body size, ventricular septal thickness was greater in blacks than whites (p < 0.05), and cavity dimension was smaller (p < 0.05). In men, ventricular septal thickness was > 10 mm for 32% of whites and 53% of blacks; for women these figures were 14% and 38%, respectively. Relative wall thickness was greater in blacks (p < 0.01 for men and women), but left ventricular mass index was similar in the two ethnic groups. In men, hypertension resulted in an increase in wall thickness in both ethnic groups, but cavity dimension decreased in blacks and increased in whites. Wall thickness was higher in blacks than in whites for equivalent levels of either rest (p = 0.05) or ambulatory (p = 0.007) blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Left ventricular mass index may not be valid for comparison between ethnic groups because this derived measure does not take into account ethnic differences in ventricular structural response to hypertension. Interventricular wall thickness may be more valid. Using this measure, we demonstrate greater ventricular hypertrophy in blacks than in whites, unexplained by differences in either rest or ambulatory blood pressure. The pattern of ventricular hypertrophy observed in blacks is associated with an increased mortality risk. Conventional blood pressure thresholds for instituting antihypertensive treatment may be too conservative for people of black African descent.

High prevalence of diabetes in Bahrainis. Associations with ethnicity and raised plasma cholesterol.

OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence of diabetes and associated risk factors in the population of Bahrain. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 2,128 Bahrainis aged 40-69 years was conducted. RESULTS: Age-standardized prevalence of diabetes was 25% in Jaafari Arabs, 48% in Sunni Arabs, and 23% in Iranians. In multivariate analyses, positive family history of diabetes, low educational status, waist girth, plasma cholesterol, and, in women, postmenopausal status were independently associated with diabetes. Adjusting for these factors did not account for the difference in prevalence between Jaafari and Sunni Arabs. There was no association between diabetes and parental consanguinity. Mean plasma cholesterol was 0.5 mmol/l higher in diabetic than in normoglycemic participants, 0.5 mmol/l higher in Sunni than in Jaafari Arabs, and, excluding diabetic individuals, 0.2 mmol/l higher in those with a positive family history of diabetes than in those with a negative family history. Although 28% of participants had BMI > or = 30 kg/m2, only 42% of these obese individuals rated themselves as overweight. In men, obesity was inversely related to physical activity at work. In women, obesity was associated with high parity and inversely associated with employment outside the home. CONCLUSIONS: The high rates of diabetes in Bahrain and other Arabian Peninsula populations appear to be part of a familial syndrome that includes raised plasma cholesterol levels. Risk is related to ethnic origin but not to parental consanguinity. Despite the high rates of diabetes, obesity is still perceived as a desirable attribute in this population.

Relationships of fasting and postload glucose levels to sex and alcohol consumption. Are American Diabetes Association criteria biased against detection of diabetes in women?

OBJECTIVE: To compare, in men and women, the prevalence of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes assessed using criteria from the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and to investigate risk factors associated with fasting and 2-h postload plasma glucose. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from two companion surveys of Europeans, South Asians, and Afro-Caribbeans in west London were used. A total of 4,367 men and women aged 40-64 years who were not known to have diabetes underwent an oral glucose tolerance test after an overnight fast. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was estimated using the ADA (fasting plasma glucose > or = 7.0 mmol/l) and WHO (2-h postload glucose > or = 11.1 mmol/l) criteria for epidemiologic studies. The association of body fat and usual alcohol intake with plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence was assessed. RESULTS: Compared with the WHO criterion, the ADA criterion gave a higher prevalence of diabetes in men (6.4 vs. 4.7%) but a lower prevalence in women (3.3 vs. 4.2%). In Afro-Caribbeans, the sex difference in diabetes prevalence was reversed. Women had significantly lower fasting glucose than men despite higher 2-h glucose levels. Alcohol intake was positively associated with fasting glucose in men and women but not with 2-h glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS: The new ADA criterion, based on fasting glucose alone, does not take account of sex differences in metabolic response to fasting or possible artifactual effects on fasting glucose. With the ADA criterion, alcohol intake was a significant risk factor for diabetes in our study population; this was not the case with the WHO criterion.

Resting and ambulatory blood pressure differences in Afro-Caribbeans and Europeans.

To investigate why mortality from stroke in people of Afro-Caribbean origin is twice the average for England and Wales, we examined 1166 European and Afro-Caribbean people in London. Age-standardized median systolic blood pressure was 6 mm Hg higher (128 versus 122 mm Hg) in Afro-Caribbean than European men and 17 mm Hg higher (135 versus 118 mm Hg) in Afro-Caribbean than European women. Migrants from West Africa and the Caribbean had similar blood pressures. Body mass index was higher in Afro-Caribbean than European women, accounting for 4 mm Hg of the systolic difference. Diabetes prevalence was 16% in Afro-Caribbeans and 5% in Europeans (P < .001), accounting for 1 mm Hg of the difference in systolic pressure in men and 2 mm Hg in women. In participants not taking antihypertensive medication, mean fall in ambulatory systolic pressure between daytime and nighttime, adjusted for resting blood pressures, was 24 mm Hg in Europeans and 18 mm Hg in Afro-Caribbeans (P = .05), and percent day-night fall in systolic blood pressure adjusted for resting systolic pressure was 17% in Europeans and 12% in Afro-Caribbeans (P < .05). This difference persisted when men and women and normotensive and hypertensive individuals were examined separately. We estimate that the differences in blood pressure between Afro-Caribbeans and Europeans may be enough to account for ethnic differences in stroke mortality in women but not men. The reasons for the high prevalence of hypertension and related morbidity in this and other populations of African descent remain to be established.

Hypertensive retinopathy in Afro-Caribbeans and Europeans. Prevalence and risk factor relationships.

The prevalence of hypertension is particularly high in people of black African descent throughout the world, and the consequences of hypertension, such as hypertensive heart and renal disease and stroke, are also more common. But there is little consensus on whether hypertensive retinopathy follows a similar pattern. We determined the prevalence of hypertensive retinopathy and its relationships with resting and ambulatory blood pressure in a population study of Afro-Caribbeans and Europeans aged 40 to 64 years in London, UK. Retinal photographs of 651 participants were graded for hypertensive retinopathy. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence of retinopathy was 11% (95% confidence interval, 8% to 14%) in Europeans and 21% (95% confidence interval, 16% to 26%) in Afro-Caribbeans (P < .001), respectively. This ethnic difference in prevalence was greatest in normotensive women (8% in Europeans versus 20% in Afro-Caribbeans, P < .001). Resting systolic pressure was 8 mm Hg higher in normotensive Afro-Carribean compared with European women, but this could not fully account for the ethnic difference in the prevalence of retinopathy. Examination of the different relationships of age and resting and ambulatory blood pressures with hypertensive retinopathy showed that these relationships were strongest in European women and weakest in Afro-Caribbean women. We conclude that hypertensive retinopathy is more common in Afro-Caribbeans, particularly women, and that ethnic differences in resting blood pressure cannot fully account for this. The relatively weak relationship between resting and ambulatory blood pressures and retinopathy in Afro-Caribbeans suggests that factors other than blood pressure determine the high rates of hypertensive retinopathy in this group.

Relationship of hyperinsulinemia to dietary intake in south Asian and European men.

In South Asians (Indians, Pakistanis, and Bangladeshis) settled overseas, high rates of coronary disease and non-insulin-dependent diabetes occur in association with central obesity and insulin resistance. To examine whether these disturbances were related to diet, we measured 7-d weighed intakes in 173 South Asian and European men aged 40-69 y in London. In South Asians compared with Europeans, respectively, mean energy intake was lower (9.5 vs 10.8 MJ/day, P < 0.001), total fat intake was lower (36.5% vs 39.2% of energy intake, P = 0.007), starch intake was higher (28.0% vs 21.5% of energy, P < 0.001), polyunsaturated fatty acid intake was higher (8.2% vs 7.0% of energy, P = 0.02), and dietary fiber intake was higher (3.2 vs 2.0 g/MJ, P < 0.001). Elevated serum insulin concentrations at 2 h postglucose were associated positively with carbohydrate intake (P = 0.001) and inversely with alcohol intake (P = 0.006), but not with saturated fatty acid intake. The high coronary risk in South Asian people is not explained by any unfavorable characteristic of South Asian diets.

Diet and fecal steroid profile in a South Asian population with a low colon-cancer rate.

South Asian immigrants to England and Wales have low mortality from colon cancer and high mortality from coronary heart disease compared with the general population. In a survey of a predominantly Gujarati population in northwest London, both vegetarians and nonvegetarians had similar total dietary fat intake to the native British population but higher dietary fiber intake. Total fecal bile acid and neutral animal sterol concentrations were lower in South Asians than in a native British comparison group. Sixty-two percent of South Asians excreted detectable quantities of free primary bile acids, which were not present in stools from native British subjects. The ratio of fecal coprostanol to total neutral animal sterols was also lower in South Asians. Low risk of colon cancer in this population may be related to reduced microbial activity in the bowel and low levels of tumor-promoting secondary bile acids.

Apolipoprotein B gene polymorphisms are associated with lipid levels in men of South Asian descent.

Three polymorphic sites of the apolipoprotein B gene - the insertion/deletion signal peptide, XbaI and EcoRI sites - were examined in a sample of 107 healthy men and in 46 men with evidence of coronary heart disease selected from a large population survey of South Asians aged 40-69 in London, U.K. There were no significant differences in allele frequencies between cases and controls. Frequencies of the ins (insertion) and X- (absence of XbaI cutting site) alleles were higher in South Asians than in Europeans studied previously (South Asians versus Europeans ins: 0.80 vs. 0.68, P less than 0.025; X-: 0.71 vs. 0.47-0.56, P less than 0.001). The del allele was associated with higher levels of total cholesterol (P less than 0.05) and the X+ allele with lower levels of HDL cholesterol (P less than 0.05), and thus both polymorphisms were associated with differences in the ratio of HDL cholesterol to total cholesterol (ins/del, P less than 0.01; XbaI, P less than 0.001). Mean waist-hip girth ratio was lower in the 10 men homozygous for the X+ allele than in the 42 men with X-/X+ and 55 men with X-/X- genotypes; the means (+/- SEM) were 0.92 +/- 0.02, 0.97 +/- 0.01 and 0.96 +/- 0.01 respectively (P = 0.03). These data suggest that genetic variation in linkage disequilibrium with the XbaI and ins/del polymorphisms of the apo B gene contributes to the determination of total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol levels and possibly to obesity in South Asians.

Is the effect of low birth weight on cardiovascular mortality mediated through high blood pressure?

OBJECTIVE: To explore whether the inverse association between birth weight and mortality from circulatory diseases is mediated through blood pressure in men aged 50-75 years. DESIGN: Cohort study with retrospectively collected data on size at birth. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study included 1334 men born during 1920-1924, living in Uppsala, Sweden, who were examined at the ages of 50 and 60 years, and followed-up to the end of 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from circulatory diseases based on routine death registration. RESULTS: Birth weight showed a specific, inverse association with mortality from circulatory diseases: the rate ratio was 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.89) per 1000 g increase in birth weight. This association was not appreciably affected by adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics or smoking, but was strengthened slightly by adjustment for body mass index at the ages of 50 and 60 years. Adjustment for systolic blood pressure at the age of 50 years only slightly reduced the strength of the inverse association between birth weight and mortality from ischaemic heart disease, and did not affect the inverse association between birth weight and mortality from stroke. Adjustments for systolic and diastolic blood pressure and hypertension treatment at the ages of 50 and 60 years did not reduce the strength of the association between birth weight and mortality from circulatory diseases at the age of 60-75 years. CONCLUSIONS: The inverse association between birth weight and mortality from circulatory diseases in men aged 50-75 years is independent of adult sociodemographic characteristics, smoking and adult obesity and does not seem to be mediated through an increased blood pressure in those with low birth weight.

Coronary heart disease in south Asians overseas: a review.

Coronary heart disease rates have been reported in several parts of the world to be unusually high in people originating from the Indian subcontinent. High coronary disease rates appear to be common to South Asian groups of different geographical origin, religion, and language. This presents a challenge to the understanding of coronary heart disease: the high rates in South Asians are not explained on the basis of elevated serum cholesterol, smoking or hypertension. Low plasma HDL cholesterol, high plasma triglyceride levels and high prevalence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes have been consistently found in South Asians overseas: this probably reflects an underlying state of insulin resistance. Further studies are needed to determine whether this metabolic disturbance can account for the high rates of coronary heart disease in South Asians, and to identify possibilities for prevention.

Mortality of women with polycystic ovary syndrome at long-term follow-up.

Metabolic disturbances associated with insulin resistance are present in most women with polycystic ovary syndrome. This has led to suggestions that women with polycystic ovary syndrome may be at increased risk of cardiovascular disease in later life. We undertook a long-term follow-up study to test whether cardiovascular mortality is increased in these women. A total of 786 women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome in the United Kingdom between 1930 and 1979 were traced from hospital records and followed for an average of 30 years. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated to compare the death rates of these women with national rates. The SMR for all causes was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.69-1.17), based on 59 deaths. There were 15 deaths from circulatory disease, yielding an SMR of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.46-1.37). Of these 15 deaths, 13 were from ischemic heart disease (SMR 1.40; 95% CI, 0.75-2.40) and two were from other circulatory disease (SMR 0.23; 95% CI, 0.03-0.85). There were six deaths from diabetes mellitus as underlying or contributory cause, compared with 1.7 expected (odds ratio 3.6; 95% CI, 1.5-8.4). Breast cancer was the commonest cause of death (SMR 1.48 based on 13 deaths; 95% CI, 0.79-2.54). We conclude that women with polycystic ovary syndrome do not have markedly higher than average mortality from circulatory disease, even though the condition is strongly associated with diabetes, lipid abnormalities, and other cardiovascular risk factors. The characteristic endocrine profile of women with polycystic ovary syndrome may protect against circulatory disease in this condition.

Relation of high blood pressure to glucose intolerance, plasma lipids and educational status in an Arabian Gulf population.

BACKGROUND: In Bahrain and other populations of the Arabian Peninsula, glucose intolerance is associated with raised plasma total cholesterol, postmenopausal status and low educational status. These associations are not generally seen in other populations with high diabetes prevalence. A study was undertaken in order to determine if hypertension in Bahrainis is associated with the same factors as those related to glucose intolerance. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 2120 Bahrainis aged 40-69 years. RESULTS: The age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension (defined as current treatment for hypertension, systolic blood pressure > or = 160 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure > or = 95 mmHg) rose with increasing degrees of glucose intolerance. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence of hypertension was 21% (95% CI: 19-24%) in those with normal glucose tolerance, 31% (95% CI: 27-36%) in those with impaired glucose tolerance, and 38% (95% CI: 34-42%) in those with diabetes. In a multivariate analysis adjusting for age and sex, raised blood pressure was independently associated with waist girth, plasma cholesterol, glucose intolerance, family history of hypertension and (in women) postmenopausal status. There was an inverse relationship between blood pressure and educational status that was independent of other variables. This association parallels the inverse relationship of diabetes to educational level and is consistent with low educational level being a marker for socioeconomic deprivation in early life in this population. CONCLUSION: The high prevalence rates of hypertension and diabetes in Bahrainis are manifestations of a pattern of metabolic disturbances that includes raised plasma cholesterol levels. Both hypertension and diabetes are associated with low educational status, which in this population is a marker for socioeconomic deprivation in early life. This suggests that the risk of hypertension may be set by environmental factors in early life.

Relation of plasma lipids to insulin resistance, nonesterified fatty acid levels, and body fat in men from three ethnic groups: relevance to variation in risk of diabetes and coronary disease.

Afro-Caribbean men in the United Kingdom have a favorable lipoprotein profile and are at low risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) compared with Europeans and South Asians, but are at high risk of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) compared with Europeans. To investigate these differences, a cross-sectional comparison was undertaken for measures of lipoprotein metabolism, body composition, and insulin's glucoregulatory and antilipolytic actions in 92 healthy men (42 to 61 years) of Afro-Caribbean, South Asian, or European origin. Afro-Caribbean men were more insulin-resistant than Europeans (insulin sensitivity [Si], 1.96 v3.01 min(-1) x microU(-1) x mL, P < .01). They nevertheless had a more favorable lipoprotein profile, with lower levels of very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol (0.21 v 0.40 mmol/L, P < .01) and triglycerides (0.34 v 0.74 mmol/L, P < .01), lower serum total triglycerides, higher high-density lipoprotein 2 (HDL2) cholesterol, and larger low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particle size. These differences were not accounted for by differences in nonesterified fatty acid (NEFA) levels, the sensitivity of suppression of NEFA levels to insulin, or body composition. South Asians were also more insulin-resistant than Europeans but had a less favorable lipoprotein profile. Afro-Caribbean men in the United Kingdom are as insulin-resistant as South Asian men but less susceptible to the lipid disturbances that characteristically accompany insulin resistance. This favorable lipid pattern may relate to more effective VLDL metabolism rather than a reduced supply of NEFA as substrate for triglyceride synthesis.

Methods for epidemiological surveys of ethnic minority groups.

OBJECTIVE--Research into the health of minority ethnic groups is often restricted by methodological difficulties. These include the lack of accurate population denominators, the choice of an appropriate sampling frame, correctly assigning ethnic group, and biases in techniques used for sampling and investigation. This article reviews the available sources or mortality and morbidity data, and assesses their uses and limitations for research involving ethnic minority groups. Suitable sampling frames and review methods used to assign ethnicity are discussed. Sources of bias are high-lighted and methods used to overcome these biases are presented. CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION OF ARTICLES--Articles have been chosen which best illustrate the problems encountered and show how these problems can be addressed. CONCLUSIONS--The increased documentation of ethnic origin on routine data sources is welcomed, but attention must be paid to ensuring that congruent definitions in data collection are used. The worrying consequences of the Commission of European Communities directive, which describes the need for explicit consent to be obtained from subjects before data is used for anything other than its original purpose, are discussed.

Prediction of general practice workload from census based social deprivation scores.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim was to compare the ability of census based social deprivation scores devised by Jarman, Carstairs, and Townsend to predict workload in general practice. DESIGN: This was a prospective study of 140,050 patients registered with general practices over one year from 1 July 1981 (Third National Morbidity Survey). Main outcome measures were workload score for each patient, defined as a weighted sum of consultations at the surgery and consultations elsewhere, excluding preventive procedures. SETTING: 25 general practices in England and Wales. MAIN RESULTS: In multivariate analyses the Jarman, Carstairs, and Townsend indices all predicted workload, but the Townsend index was the best predictor, with both housing tenure and car ownership being strong predictors of workload. The overcrowding and geographical mobility variables used in the Jarman index did not predict increased workload. The weighting assigned to children under five by the Jarman index underestimated the additional workload this group generated. CONCLUSIONS: For identifying social pressures on general practice workload the Jarman index is less valid than other census based scores because it fails to include car ownership and housing tenure. A more rational scheme for compensating general practitioners would directly weight the capitation fee for children aged under five years and allocate current deprivation payments according to the Townsend index or a similar score. This would redistribute resources from London to deprived areas in northern England.

Effects of discrimination by sex and race on the early careers of British medical graduates during 1981-7.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the possible effects of discrimination by sex and race on the career patterns of doctors up to six years after qualifying. DESIGN: Postal questionnaire follow up survey. PARTICIPANTS: 1572 Doctors who graduated from five British medical schools in 1981, 1983, and 1985, including 587 women and 131 doctors from ethnic minorities. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reported success rates of applications for training posts. RESULTS: Comparison of the career patterns of women and men yielded no evidence of discrimination against women in competition for posts. In contrast, there were striking differences in career patterns between graduates of native European origin and those of ethnic minority origin. Graduates from ethnic minorities reported lower success rates and more difficulty in obtaining house officer posts, registrar posts, and places in vocational training schemes in general practice. Most of this discrimination seemed to occur at the stage of shortlisting for interview. Graduates from ethnic minorities were more likely than graduates of native European origin to have experienced spells of unemployment while seeking work. They were also more likely to have changed their original choice of career because of difficulty in obtaining suitable training posts or unfavourable career prospects. CONCLUSIONS: Discrimination against ethnic minorities occurs in the competition for training posts among graduates from British medical schools. There was no evidence of discrimination against women graduates. Shortlisting procedures based on objective scoring systems may help to ensure equality of opportunity in future.

Relation of size at birth to non-insulin dependent diabetes and insulin concentrations in men aged 50-60 years.

OBJECTIVE: To establish whether the relation between size at birth and non-insulin dependent diabetes is mediated through impaired beta cell function or insulin resistance. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Uppsala, Sweden. SUBJECTS: 1333 men whose birth records were traced from a cohort of 2322 men born during 1920-4 and resident in Uppsala in 1970. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Intravenous glucose tolerance test at age 50 years and non-insulin dependent diabetes at age 60 years. RESULTS: There was a weak inverse correlation (r=-0.07, P=0.03) between ponderal index at birth and 60 minute insulin concentrations in the intravenous glucose tolerance test at age 50 years. This association was stronger (r=-0.19, P=0.001) in the highest third of the distribution of body mass index than in the other two thirds (P=0.01 for the interaction between ponderal index and the body mass index). Prevalence of diabetes at age 60 years was 8% in men whose birth weight was less than 3250 g compared with 5% in men with birth weight 3250 g or more (P=0.08; 95% confidence interval for difference -0.3% to 6.8%). There was a stronger association between diabetes and ponderal index: prevalence of diabetes was 12% in the lowest fifth of ponderal index compared with 4% in the other four fifths (P=0.001; 3.0% to 12.6%). CONCLUSION: These results confirm that reduced fetal growth is associated with increased risk of diabetes and suggest a specific association with thinness at birth. This relation seems to be mediated through insulin resistance rather than through impaired beta cell function and to depend on an interaction with obesity in adult life.