Breeding crops for drought-affected environments and improved climate resilience.

Breeding climate-resilient crops with improved levels of abiotic and biotic stress resistance as a response to climate change presents both opportunities and challenges. Applying the framework of the "breeder's equation," which is used to predict the response to selection for a breeding program cycle, we review methodologies and strategies that have been used to successfully breed crops with improved levels of drought resistance, where the target population of environments (TPEs) is a spatially and temporally heterogeneous mixture of drought-affected and favorable (water-sufficient) environments. Long-term improvement of temperate maize for the US corn belt is used as a case study and compared with progress for other crops and geographies. Integration of trait information across scales, from genomes to ecosystems, is needed to accurately predict yield outcomes for genotypes within the current and future TPEs. This will require transdisciplinary teams to explore, identify, and exploit novel opportunities to accelerate breeding program outcomes; both improved germplasm resources and improved products (cultivars, hybrids, clones, and populations) that outperform and replace the products in use by farmers, in combination with modified agronomic management strategies suited to their local environments.

Fifteen compelling open questions in plant cell biology.

As scientists, we are at least as excited about the open questions-the things we do not know-as the discoveries. Here, we asked 15 experts to describe the most compelling open questions in plant cell biology. These are their questions: How are organelle identity, domains, and boundaries maintained under the continuous flux of vesicle trafficking and membrane remodeling? Is the plant cortical microtubule cytoskeleton a mechanosensory apparatus? How are the cellular pathways of cell wall synthesis, assembly, modification, and integrity sensing linked in plants? Why do plasmodesmata open and close? Is there retrograde signaling from vacuoles to the nucleus? How do root cells accommodate fungal endosymbionts? What is the role of cell edges in plant morphogenesis? How is the cell division site determined? What are the emergent effects of polyploidy on the biology of the cell, and how are any such "rules" conditioned by cell type? Can mechanical forces trigger new cell fates in plants? How does a single differentiated somatic cell reprogram and gain pluripotency? How does polarity develop de-novo in isolated plant cells? What is the spectrum of cellular functions for membraneless organelles and intrinsically disordered proteins? How do plants deal with internal noise? How does order emerge in cells and propagate to organs and organisms from complex dynamical processes? We hope you find the discussions of these questions thought provoking and inspiring.

Contrasting leaf-scale photosynthetic low-light response and its temperature dependency are key to differences in crop-scale radiation use efficiency.

Radiation use efficiency (RUE) is a key crop adaptation trait that quantifies the potential amount of aboveground biomass produced by the crop per unit of solar energy intercepted. But it is unclear why elite maize and grain sorghum hybrids differ in their RUE at the crop level. Here, we used a non-traditional top-down approach via canopy photosynthesis modelling to identify leaf-level photosynthetic traits that are key to differences in crop-level RUE. A novel photosynthetic response measurement was developed and coupled with use of a Bayesian model fitting procedure, incorporating a C4 leaf photosynthesis model, to infer cohesive sets of photosynthetic parameters by simultaneously fitting responses to CO2 , light, and temperature. Statistically significant differences between leaf photosynthetic parameters of elite maize and grain sorghum hybrids were found across a range of leaf temperatures, in particular for effects on the quantum yield of photosynthesis, but also for the maximum enzymatic activity of Rubisco and PEPc. Simulation of diurnal canopy photosynthesis predicted that the leaf-level photosynthetic low-light response and its temperature dependency are key drivers of the performance of crop-level RUE, generating testable hypotheses for further physiological analysis and bioengineering applications.

Can we harness digital technologies and physiology to hasten genetic gain in US maize breeding?

Plant physiology can offer invaluable insights to accelerate genetic gain. However, translating physiological understanding into breeding decisions has been an ongoing and complex endeavor. Here we demonstrate an approach to leverage physiology and genomics to hasten crop improvement. A half-diallel maize (Zea mays) experiment resulting from crossing 9 elite inbreds was conducted at 17 locations in the USA corn belt and 6 locations at managed stress environments between 2017 and 2019 covering a range of water environments from 377 to 760 mm of evapotranspiration and family mean yields from 542 to 1,874 g m-2. Results from analyses of 35 families and 2,367 hybrids using crop growth models linked to whole-genome prediction (CGM-WGP) demonstrated that CGM-WGP offered a predictive accuracy advantage compared to BayesA for untested genotypes evaluated in untested environments (r = 0.43 versus r = 0.27). In contrast to WGP, CGMs can deal effectively with time-dependent interactions between a physiological process and the environment. To facilitate the selection/identification of traits for modeling yield, an algorithmic approach was introduced. The method was able to identify 4 out of 12 candidate traits known to explain yield variation in maize. The estimation of allelic and physiological values for each genotype using the CGM created in silico phenotypes (e.g. root elongation) and physiological hypotheses that could be tested within the breeding program in an iterative manner. Overall, the approach and results suggest a promising future to fully harness digital technologies, gap analysis, and physiological knowledge to hasten genetic gain by improving predictive skill and definition of breeding goals.

Combatting drought: a multi-dimensional challenge.

Water will be a major limitation to food production in the 21st century, and drought issues already prevail in many parts of the world. Finding solutions to ensure that farmers harvest profitable crops, and secure food supplies for families and feed for animals that will provide for them through to the next season are urgent necessities. The Interdrought community has been addressing this issue for almost 30 years in a series of international conferences, characterized by a multi-disciplinary approach across the domains of molecular biology, physiology, genetics, agronomy, breeding, environmental and social sciences, policy, and systems modeling. This special issue presents papers from the 7th edition of the conference, the first to be held in Africa, that paid special attention to drought in a smallholder context, adding a 'system' dimension to the crop focus from the previous Interdrought events (Varshney et al., 2018; Hammer et al., 2021).

Two decades of harnessing standing genetic variation for physiological traits to improve drought tolerance in maize.

We review approaches to maize breeding for improved drought tolerance during flowering and grain filling in the central and western US corn belt and place our findings in the context of results from public breeding. Here we show that after two decades of dedicated breeding efforts, the rate of crop improvement under drought increased from 6.2 g m-2 year-1 to 7.5 g m-2 year-1, closing the genetic gain gap with respect to the 8.6 g m-2 year-1 observed under water-sufficient conditions. The improvement relative to the long-term genetic gain was possible by harnessing favourable alleles for physiological traits available in the reference population of genotypes. Experimentation in managed stress environments that maximized the genetic correlation with target environments was key for breeders to identify and select for these alleles. We also show that the embedding of physiological understanding within genomic selection methods via crop growth models can hasten genetic gain under drought. We estimate a prediction accuracy differential (Δr) above current prediction approaches of ~30% (Δr=0.11, r=0.38), which increases with increasing complexity of the trait environment system as estimated by Shannon information theory. We propose this framework to inform breeding strategies for drought stress across geographies and crops.

Physiological trait networks enhance understanding of crop growth and water use in contrasting environments.

Plant function arises from a complex network of structural and physiological traits. Explicit representation of these traits, as well as their connections with other biophysical processes, is required to advance our understanding of plant-soil-climate interactions. We used the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to evaluate physiological trait networks in maize. Net primary productivity (NPP) and grain yield were simulated across five contrasting climate scenarios. Simulations achieving high NPP and grain yield in high precipitation environments featured trait networks conferring high water use strategies: deep roots, high stomatal conductance at low water potential ("risky" stomatal regulation), high xylem hydraulic conductivity and high maximal leaf area index. In contrast, high NPP and grain yield was achieved in dry environments with low late-season precipitation via water conserving trait networks: deep roots, high embolism resistance and low stomatal conductance at low leaf water potential ("conservative" stomatal regulation). We suggest that our approach, which allows for the simultaneous evaluation of physiological traits, soil characteristics and their interactions (i.e., networks), has potential to improve our understanding of crop performance in different environments. In contrast, evaluating single traits in isolation of other coordinated traits does not appear to be an effective strategy for predicting plant performance.

Radiation use efficiency increased over a century of maize (Zea mays L.) breeding in the US corn belt.

In the absence of stress, crop growth depends on the amount of light intercepted by the canopy and the conversion efficiency [radiation use efficiency (RUE)]. This study tested the hypothesis that long-term genetic gain for grain yield was partly due to improved RUE. The hypothesis was tested using 30 elite maize hybrids commercialized in the US corn belt between 1930 and 2017. Crops grown under irrigation showed that pre-flowering crop growth increased at a rate of 0.11 g m-2 year-1, while light interception remained constant. Therefore, RUE increased at a rate of 0.0049 g MJ-1 year-1, translating into an average of 3 g m-2 year-1 of grain yield over 100 years of maize breeding. Considering that the harvest index has not changed for crops grown at optimal density for the hybrid, the cumulative RUE increase over the history of commercial maize breeding in the USA can account for ~32% of the documented yield trend for maize grown in the central US corn belt. The remaining RUE gap between this study and theoretical maximum values suggests that a yield improvement of a similar magnitude could be achieved by further increasing RUE.

Kernel weight contribution to yield genetic gain of maize: a global review and US case studies.

Over the past century of maize (Zea mays L.) breeding, grain yield progress has been the result of improvements in several other intrinsic physiological and morphological traits. In this study, we describe (i) the contribution of kernel weight (KW) to yield genetic gain across multiple agronomic settings and breeding programs, and (ii) the physiological bases for improvements in KW for US hybrids. A global-scale literature review concludes that rates of KW improvement in US hybrids were similar to those of other commercial breeding programs but extended over a longer period of time. There is room for a continued increase of kernel size in maize for most of the genetic materials analysed, but the trade-off between kernel number and KW poses a challenge for future yield progress. Through phenotypic characterization of Pioneer Hi-Bred ERA hybrids in the USA, we determine that improvements in KW have been predominantly related to an extended kernel-filling duration. Likewise, crop improvement has conferred on modern hybrids greater KW plasticity, expressed as a better ability to respond to changes in assimilate availability. Our analysis of past trends and current state of development helps to identify candidate targets for future improvements in maize.

Reproductive resilience but not root architecture underpins yield improvement under drought in maize.

Because plants capture water and nutrients through roots, it was proposed that changes in root systems architecture (RSA) might underpin the 3-fold increase in maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield over the last century. Here we show that both RSA and yield have changed with decades of maize breeding, but not the crop water uptake. Results from X-ray phenotyping in controlled environments showed that single cross (SX) hybrids have smaller root systems than double cross (DX) hybrids for root diameters between 2465 µm and 181µm (P<0.05). Soil water extraction measured under field conditions ranged between 2.6 mm d-1 and 2.9 mm d-1 but were not significantly different between SX and DX hybrids. Yield and yield components were higher for SX than DX hybrids across densities and irrigation (P<0.001). Taken together, the results suggest that changes in RSA were not the cause of increased water uptake but an adaptation to high-density stands used in modern agriculture. This adaptation may have contributed to shift in resource allocation to the ear and indirectly improved reproductive resilience. Advances in root physiology and phenotyping can create opportunities to maintain long-term genetic gain in maize, but a shift from ideotype to crop and production system thinking will be required.

Lengthening of maize maturity time is not a widespread climate change adaptation strategy in the US Midwest.

Increasing temperatures in the US Midwest are projected to reduce maize yields because warmer temperatures hasten reproductive development and, as a result, shorten the grain fill period. However, there is widespread expectation that farmers will mitigate projected yield losses by planting longer season hybrids that lengthen the grain fill period. Here, we ask: (a) how current hybrid maturity length relates to thermal availability of the local climate, and (b) if farmers are shifting to longer season hybrids in response to a warming climate. To address these questions, we used county-level Pioneer brand hybrid sales (Corteva Agriscience) across 17 years and 650 counties in 10 Midwest states (IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, ND, OH, SD, and WI). Northern counties were shown to select hybrid maturities with growing degree day (GDD°C) requirements more closely related to the environmentally available GDD compared to central and southern counties. This measure, termed "thermal overlap," ranged from complete 106% in northern counties to a mere 63% in southern counties. The relationship between thermal overlap and latitude was fit using split-line regression and a breakpoint of 42.8°N was identified. Over the 17-years, hybrid maturities shortened across the majority of the Midwest with only a minority of counties lengthening in select northern and southern areas. The annual change in maturity ranged from -5.4 to 4.1 GDD year-1 with a median of -0.9 GDD year-1 . The shortening of hybrid maturity contrasts with widespread expectations of hybrid maturity aligning with magnitude of warming. Factors other than thermal availability appear to more strongly impact farmer decision-making such as the benefit of shorter maturity hybrids on grain drying costs, direct delivery to ethanol biorefineries, field operability, labor constraints, and crop genetics availability. Prediction of hybrid choice under future climate scenarios must include climatic factors, physiological-genetic attributes, socio-economic, and operational constraints.

Tackling G × E × M interactions to close on-farm yield-gaps: creating novel pathways for crop improvement by predicting contributions of genetics and management to crop productivity.

KEY MESSAGE: Climate change and Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management interactions together challenge our strategies for crop improvement. Research to advance prediction methods for breeding and agronomy is opening new opportunities to tackle these challenges and overcome on-farm crop productivity yield-gaps through design of responsive crop improvement strategies. Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management (G × E × M) interactions underpin many aspects of crop productivity. An important question for crop improvement is "How can breeders and agronomists effectively explore the diverse opportunities within the high dimensionality of the complex G × E × M factorial to achieve sustainable improvements in crop productivity?" Whenever G × E × M interactions make important contributions to attainment of crop productivity, we should consider how to design crop improvement strategies that can explore the potential space of G × E × M possibilities, reveal the interesting Genotype-Management (G-M) technology opportunities for the Target Population of Environments (TPE), and enable the practical exploitation of the associated improved levels of crop productivity under on-farm conditions. Climate change adds additional layers of complexity and uncertainty to this challenge, by introducing directional changes in the environmental dimension of the G × E × M factorial. These directional changes have the potential to create further conditional changes in the contributions of the genetic and management dimensions to future crop productivity. Therefore, in the presence of G × E × M interactions and climate change, the challenge for both breeders and agronomists is to co-design new G-M technologies for a non-stationary TPE. Understanding these conditional changes in crop productivity through the relevant sciences for each dimension, Genotype, Environment, and Management, creates opportunities to predict novel G-M technology combinations suitable to achieve sustainable crop productivity and global food security targets for the likely climate change scenarios. Here we consider critical foundations required for any prediction framework that aims to move us from the current unprepared state of describing G × E × M outcomes to a future responsive state equipped to predict the crop productivity consequences of G-M technology combinations for the range of environmental conditions expected for a complex, non-stationary TPE under the influences of climate change.

Soil water capture trends over 50 years of single-cross maize (Zea mays L.) breeding in the US corn-belt.

Breeders have successfully improved maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield for the conditions of the US corn-belt over the past 80 years, with the past 50 years utilizing single-cross hybrids. Long-term improvement for grain yield under water-limited conditions has also been reported. Grain yield under water-limited conditions depends on water use, water use efficiency, and harvest index. It has been hypothesized that long-term genetic gain for yield could be due, in part, to increased water capture from the soil. This hypothesis was tested using a set of elite single-cross hybrids that were released by DuPont Pioneer between 1963 and 2009. Eighteen hybrids were grown in the field during 2010 and 2011 growing seasons at Woodland, CA, USA. Crops grew predominantly on stored soil water and drought stress increased as the season progressed. Soil water content was measured to 300cm depth throughout the growing season. Significant water extraction occurred to a depth of 240-300cm and seasonal water use was calculated from the change in soil water over this rooting zone. Grain yield increased significantly with year of commercialization, but no such trend was observed for total water extraction. Therefore, the measured genetic gain for yield for the period represented by this set of hybrids must be related to either increased efficiency of water use or increased carbon partitioning to the grain, rather than increased soil water uptake.

Breeding drought-tolerant maize hybrids for the US corn-belt: discovery to product.

Germplasm, genetics, phenotyping, and selection, combined with a clear definition of product targets, are the foundation of successful hybrid maize breeding. Breeding maize hybrids with superior yield for the drought-prone regions of the US corn-belt involves integration of multiple drought-specific technologies together with all of the other technology components that comprise a successful maize hybrid breeding programme. Managed-environment technologies are used to enable scaling of precision phenotyping in appropriate drought environmental conditions to breeding programme level. Genomics and other molecular technologies are used to study trait genetic architecture. Genetic prediction methodology was used to breed for improved yield performance for drought-prone environments. This was enabled by combining precision phenotyping for drought performance with genetic understanding of the traits contributing to successful hybrids in the target drought-prone environments and the availability of molecular markers distributed across the maize genome. Advances in crop growth modelling methodology are being used to evaluate the integrated effects of multiple traits for their combined effects and evaluate drought hybrid product concepts and guide their development and evaluation. Results to date, lessons learned, and future opportunities for further improving the drought tolerance of maize for the US corn-belt are discussed.

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses.

Translating weighted probabilistic bits to synthetic genetic circuits.

Synthetic genetic circuits in plants could be the next technological horizon in plant breeding, showcasing potential for precise patterned control over expression. Nevertheless, uncertainty in metabolic environments prevents robust scaling of traditional genetic circuits for agricultural use, and studies show that a deterministic system is at odds with biological randomness. We analyze the necessary requirements for assuring Boolean logic gate sequences can function in unpredictable intracellular conditions, followed by interpreted pathways by which a mathematical representation of probabilistic circuits can be translated to biological implementation. This pathway is utilized through translation of a probabilistic circuit model presented by Pervaiz that works through a series of bits; each composed of a weighted matrix that reads inputs from the environment and a random number generator that takes the matrix as bias and outputs a positive or negative signal. The weighted matrix can be biologically represented as the regulatory elements that affect transcription near promotors, allowing for an electrical bit to biological bit translation that can be refined through tuning using invertible logic prediction of the input to output relationship of a genetic response. Failsafe mechanisms should be introduced, possibly through the use of self-eliminating CRISPR-Cas9, dosage compensation, or cybernetic modeling (where CRISPR is clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats and Cas9 is clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat-associated protein 9). These safety measures are needed for all biological circuits, and their implementation is needed alongside work with this specific model. With applied responses to external factors, these circuits could allow fine-tuning of organism adaptation to stress while providing a framework for faster complex expression design in the field.

European soybean to benefit people and the environment.

Europe imports large amounts of soybean that are predominantly used for livestock feed, mainly sourced from Brazil, USA and Argentina. In addition, the demand for GM-free soybean for human consumption is project to increase. Soybean has higher protein quality and digestibility than other legumes, along with high concentrations of isoflavones, phytosterols and minerals that enhance the nutritional value as a human food ingredient. Here, we examine the potential to increase soybean production across Europe for livestock feed and direct human consumption, and review possible effects on the environment and human health. Simulations and field data indicate rainfed soybean yields of 3.1 ± 1.2 t ha-1 from southern UK through to southern Europe (compared to a 3.5 t ha-1 average from North America). Drought-prone southern regions and cooler northern regions require breeding to incorporate stress-tolerance traits. Literature synthesized in this work evidenced soybean properties important to human nutrition, health, and traits related to food processing compared to alternative protein sources. While acknowledging the uncertainties inherent in any modelling exercise, our findings suggest that further integrating soybean into European agriculture could reduce GHG emissions by 37-291 Mt CO2e year-1 and fertiliser N use by 0.6-1.2 Mt year-1, concurrently improving human health and nutrition.

Extending the breeder's equation to take aim at the target population of environments.

A major focus for genomic prediction has been on improving trait prediction accuracy using combinations of algorithms and the training data sets available from plant breeding multi-environment trials (METs). Any improvements in prediction accuracy are viewed as pathways to improve traits in the reference population of genotypes and product performance in the target population of environments (TPE). To realize these breeding outcomes there must be a positive MET-TPE relationship that provides consistency between the trait variation expressed within the MET data sets that are used to train the genome-to-phenome (G2P) model for applications of genomic prediction and the realized trait and performance differences in the TPE for the genotypes that are the prediction targets. The strength of this MET-TPE relationship is usually assumed to be high, however it is rarely quantified. To date investigations of genomic prediction methods have focused on improving prediction accuracy within MET training data sets, with less attention to quantifying the structure of the TPE and the MET-TPE relationship and their potential impact on training the G2P model for applications of genomic prediction to accelerate breeding outcomes for the on-farm TPE. We extend the breeder's equation and use an example to demonstrate the importance of the MET-TPE relationship as a key component for the design of genomic prediction methods to realize improved rates of genetic gain for the target yield, quality, stress tolerance and yield stability traits in the on-farm TPE.

Machine learning applications to improve flavor and nutritional content of horticultural crops through breeding and genetics.

Over the last decades, significant strides were made in understanding the biochemical factors influencing the nutritional content and flavor profile of fruits and vegetables. Product differentiation in the produce aisle is the natural consequence of increasing consumer power in the food industry. Cotton-candy grapes, specialty tomatoes, and pineapple-flavored white strawberries provide a few examples. Given the increased demand for flavorful varieties, and pressing need to reduce micronutrient malnutrition, we expect breeding to increase its prioritization toward these traits. Reaching this goal will, in part, necessitate knowledge of the genetic architecture controlling these traits, as well as the development of breeding methods that maximize their genetic gain. Can artificial intelligence (AI) help predict flavor preferences, and can such insights be leveraged by breeding programs? In this Perspective, we outline both the opportunities and challenges for the development of more flavorful and nutritious crops, and how AI can support these breeding initiatives.

Improving predictive ability in sparse testing designs in soybean populations.

The availability of high-dimensional genomic data and advancements in genome-based prediction models (GP) have revolutionized and contributed to accelerated genetic gains in soybean breeding programs. GP-based sparse testing is a promising concept that allows increasing the testing capacity of genotypes in environments, of genotypes or environments at a fixed cost, or a substantial reduction of costs at a fixed testing capacity. This study represents the first attempt to implement GP-based sparse testing in soybeans by evaluating different training set compositions going from non-overlapped RILs until almost the other extreme of having same set of genotypes observed across environments for different training set sizes. A total of 1,755 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) tested in nine environments were used in this study. RILs were derived from 39 bi-parental populations of the Soybean Nested Association Mapping (NAM) project. The predictive abilities of various models and training set sizes and compositions were investigated. Training compositions included a range of ratios of overlapping (O-RILs) and non-overlapping (NO-RILs) RILs across environments, as well as a methodology to maximize or minimize the genetic diversity in a fixed-size sample. Reducing the training set size compromised predictive ability in most training set compositions. Overall, maximizing the genetic diversity within the training set and the inclusion of O-RILs increased prediction accuracy given a fixed training set size; however, the most complex model was less affected by these factors. More testing environments in the early stages of the breeding pipeline can provide a more comprehensive assessment of genotype stability and adaptation which are fundamental for the precise selection of superior genotypes adapted to a wide range of environments.