Spring arrival of the common cuckoo at breeding grounds is strongly determined by environmental conditions in tropical Africa.

Failure to adapt migration timing to changes in environmental conditions along migration routes and at breeding locations can result in mismatches across trophic levels, as occurs between the brood parasitic common cuckoo Cuculus canorus and its hosts. Using satellite tracking data from 87 male cuckoos across 11 years, we evaluate why the cuckoo has not advanced its arrival to the UK. Across years, breeding ground arrival was primarily determined by timing of departure from stopover in West Africa before northward crossing of the Sahara. Together with high population synchrony and low apparent endogenous control of this event, this suggests that a seasonal ecological constraint operating here limits overall variation in breeding grounds arrival, although this event was itself influenced by carry-over from timing of arrival into tropical Africa. Between-year variation within individuals was, in contrast, mostly determined by northward migration through Europe, probably due to weather conditions. We find evidence of increased mortality risk for (a) early birds following migration periods positively impacting breeding grounds arrival, and (b) late birds, possibly suffering energy limitation, after departure from the breeding grounds. These results help identify areas where demands of responding to global change can potentially be alleviated by improving stopover quality.

Trait groups as management entities in a complex, multispecies reef fishery.

Localized stressors compound the ongoing climate-driven decline of coral reefs, requiring natural resource managers to work with rapidly shifting paradigms. Trait-based adaptive management (TBAM) is a new framework to help address changing conditions by choosing and implementing management actions specific to species groups that share key traits, vulnerabilities, and management responses. In TBAM maintenance of functioning ecosystems is balanced with provisioning for human subsistence and livelihoods. We first identified trait-based groups of food fish in a Pacific coral reef with hierarchical clustering. Positing that trait-based groups performing comparable functions respond similarly to both stressors and management actions, we ascertained biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of trait-group biomass and evaluated their vulnerabilities with generalized additive models. Clustering identified 7 trait groups from 131 species. Groups responded to different drivers and displayed divergent vulnerabilities; human activities emerged as important predictors of community structuring. Biomass of small, solitary reef-associated species increased with distance from key fishing ports, and large, solitary piscivores exhibited a decline in biomass with distance from a port. Group biomass also varied in response to different habitat types, the presence or absence of reported dynamite fishing activity, and exposure to wave energy. The differential vulnerabilities of trait groups revealed how the community structure of food fishes is driven by different aspects of resource use and habitat. This inherent variability in the responses of trait-based groups presents opportunities to apply selective TBAM strategies for complex, multispecies fisheries. This approach can be widely adjusted to suit local contexts and priorities.

Grupos de Atributos como Entidades de Manejo en una Pesquería de Arrecife Compleja y Multiespecie Resumen Los estresantes localizados agravan la continua declinación de los arrecifes de coral causada por el clima, lo que requiere que los administradores de recursos naturales trabajen con paradigmas en constante cambio. El manejo adaptativo basado en caracteres (TBAM, en inglés) es un marco de trabajo nuevo que ayuda a enfrentar las condiciones cambiantes mediante la selección e implementación de acciones de manejo específicas para grupos de especies que comparten atributos, vulnerabilidades y respuestas al manejo esenciales. En el TBAM, el mantenimiento de los ecosistemas funcionales está balanceado con el suministro para la subsistencia humana. Identificamos mediante un agrupamiento jerárquico los grupos basados en atributos de peces para la alimentación en un arrecife de coral del Pacífico. Al plantear que los grupos basados en atributos que desempeñan funciones comparables responden similarmente a los estresantes y las acciones de manejo, determinamos los impulsores biofísicos y socioeconómicos de la biomasa de un grupo de atributos y evaluamos sus vulnerabilidades mediante modelos aditivos generalizados. Identificamos siete grupos de atributos a partir de 131 especies. Los grupos respondieron a diferentes impulsores y desplegaron vulnerabilidades divergentes; las actividades humanas aparecieron como predictores importantes de la estructuración de la comunidad. La biomasa de las especies solitarias asociadas al arrecife incrementó con la distancia desde puertos importantes de pesca y los piscívoros solitarios de gran tamaño exhibieron una declinación en la biomasa junto con la distancia desde un puerto. La biomasa de los grupos también varió en respuesta a los diferentes tipos de hábitat, la presencia o ausencia reportada de actividad pesquera con dinamita y la exposición a la energía del oleaje. Las vulnerabilidades diferenciales de los grupos de atributos revelaron cómo la estructura de la comunidad de peces para la alimentación está impulsada por aspectos diferentes del uso de recursos y del hábitat. Esta variabilidad inherente en las respuestas de los grupos basados en atributos presenta la oportunidad de aplicar estrategias selectivas de manejo basado en atributos en las pesquerías complejas y multiespecie. Este enfoque puede ajustarse abiertamente para adaptarse a los contextos y las prioridades locales.

The nutritional nexus: Linking niche, habitat variability and prey composition in a generalist marine predator.

Our understanding of the niche concept will remain limited while the quantity and range of different food types eaten remain a dominant proxy for niche breadth, as this does not account for the broad ecological context that governs diet. Linking nutrition, physiology and behaviour is critical to predict the extent to which a species adjusts its nutritional niche breadth at the levels of prey ("prey composition niche," defined as the range of prey compositions eaten) and diet ("realized nutritional niche" is the range of diets composed through feeding on the prey). Here, we studied adult chick-rearing Australasian gannets Morus serrator to propose an integrative approach using sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa), geographic location and bathymetry over different years, to explore their relationship with the nutritional composition of prey and diets (i.e. prey composition and nutritional niche breadth), habitat use and foraging behaviour. We found that gannets feed on prey that varied widely in their nutritional composition (have a broad prey composition niche), and composed diets from these prey that likewise varied in composition (have a broad realized nutritional niche), suggesting generalism at two levels of macronutrient selection. Across seasons, we established "nutritional landscapes" (hereafter nutriscapes), linking the nutritional content of prey (wet mass protein-to-lipid ratio-P:L) to the most likely geographic area of capture and bathymetry. Nutriscapes varied in their P:L from 6.06 to 15.28, over time, space and bathymetry (0-150 m). During warm water events (strong positive SSTa), gannets expanded their foraging habitat, increased their foraging trip duration and consumed prey and diets with low macronutrient content (wet mass proportions of P and L). They were also constrained to the smallest prey composition and realized nutritional niche breadths. Our findings are consistent with previous suggestions that dietary generalism evolves in heterogeneous environments, and provide a framework for understanding the nutritional goals in wild marine predators and how these goals drive ecological interactions and are, in turn, ultimately shaped by environmental fluctuations.

Predicting the spatial distribution of a seabird community to identify priority conservation areas in the Timor Sea.

Understanding spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of species is fundamental to the conservation of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. To support strategic decision making aimed at sustainable management of the oceans, such as the establishment of protected areas for marine wildlife, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies seabird aggregations in the Timor Sea. We developed species distribution models for 21 seabird species based on at-sea survey observations from 2000-2013 and oceanographic variables (e.g., bathymetry). We applied 4 statistical modeling techniques and combined the results into an ensemble model with robust performance. The ensemble model predicted the probability of seabird occurrence in areas where few or no surveys had been conducted and demonstrated 3 areas of high seabird richness that varied little between seasons. These were located within 150 km of Adele Island, Ashmore Reef, and the Lacepede Islands, 3 of the largest aggregations of breeding seabirds in Australia. Although these breeding islands were foci for high species richness, model performance was greatest for 3 nonbreeding migratory species that would have been overlooked had regional monitoring been restricted to islands. Our results indicate many seabird hotspots in the Timor Sea occur outside existing reserves (e.g., Ashmore Reef Marine Reserve), where shipping, fisheries, and offshore development likely pose a threat to resident and migratory populations. Our results highlight the need to expand marine spatial planning efforts to ensure biodiversity assets are appropriately represented in marine reserves. Correspondingly, our results support the designation of at least 4 new important bird areas, for example, surrounding Adele Island and Ashmore Reef.

Temperate functional niche availability not resident-invader competition shapes tropicalisation in reef fishes.

Temperate reefs are at the forefront of warming-induced community alterations resulting from poleward range shifts. This tropicalisation is exemplified and amplified by tropical species' invasions of temperate herbivory functions. However, whether other temperate ecosystem functions are similarly invaded by tropical species, and by what drivers, remains unclear. We examine tropicalisation footprints in nine reef fish functional groups using trait-based analyses and biomass of 550 fish species across tropical to temperate gradients in Japan and Australia. We discover that functional niches in transitional communities are asynchronously invaded by tropical species, but with congruent invasion schedules for functional groups across the two hemispheres. These differences in functional group tropicalisation point to habitat availability as a key determinant of multi-species range shifts, as in the majority of functional groups tropical and temperate species share functional niche space in suitable habitat. Competition among species from different thermal guilds played little part in limiting tropicalisation, rather available functional space occupied by temperate species indicates that tropical species can invade. Characterising these drivers of reef tropicalisation is pivotal to understanding, predicting, and managing marine community transformation.