Prediction rules for selective radiographic assessment of extremity injuries in children and adolescents.

To assess the potential for selective use of roentgenography in evaluating extremity injuries, prediction rules were developed based on prospective observations for 617 injured children and adolescents examined in our Emergency Department (phase 1) and tested on 601 examined 1 year later (phase 2). Logit analysis produced best-fitting statistical models for phase 1 data with significant (P less than 0.05) direct effects of gross signs, point tenderness, activity not routine, swelling moderate or severe, time from injury less than 6 hours, and pain with motion for upper extremity injuries; and, for lower extremity injuries, not knee injury, activity not routine, point tenderness, and foot injury. Prediction rules developed in phase 1 performed equally well when tested on phase 2 injuries. Data from both phases were combined, therefore, in analysis that produced risk estimates. For all injury types (ie, for injuries with all possible combinations of presence or absence of these findings), risk for fracture was derived. For upper extremity injuries, with a threshold risk for fracture of 20% used to select specific injury types for roentgenography, prediction rule outcomes were 18.1% of roentgenograms avoided and 5.3% of fractures missed. For lower extremity injuries, using a threshold risk of 10% to select injury types for roentgenography, outcomes were 25.8% of roentgenograms avoided and 5.3% of fractures missed. Alternative prediction rules allowed still greater roentgenogram avoidance, although missed fractures also increased. Risk of adverse functional outcome from missed fractures appeared small. Annual national cost savings from the elimination of 18.1% of upper and 25.8% of lower extremity roentgenographic evaluations was estimated at $103 million.

Outpatient management of selected infants younger than two months of age evaluated for possible sepsis.

Previously healthy infants younger than 2 months of age without evidence of soft tissue or musculoskeletal infection who had white blood cell counts between 5000 and 15,000/mm3, band form counts less than or equal to 1500/mm3, urinalysis less than or equal to 10 white blood cells/high power field (spun sediment) and stool less than or equal to 5 white blood cells/high power field (if diarrhea) were considered at low risk for a serious bacterial infection. Infants meeting these criteria whose parents were judged to be adequate observers and had a telephone and automobile were eligible for outpatient management. Infants were given ceftriaxone to cover the possibility that the low risk criteria might miss more infants with serious bacterial infections than was predicted. From Jan. 1, 1987 to May 31, 1989, 86 infants younger than 2 months were enrolled. There were no serious complications in these infants. Twelve had transient problems possibly related to the intramuscular ceftriaxone therapy. One low risk infant was hospitalized for Neisseria meningitidis bacteremia and five other infants were hospitalized for medical or social reasons. All six hospitalized infants had short admissions and did well. This study supports the continued use of the low risk criteria to distinguish infants unlikely to have a serious bacterial infection. Furthermore, in a selected group of low risk infants, outpatient management may be an acceptable alternative to inpatient therapy.