Healthcare services gap analysis: a supply capture and demand forecast modelling, Dubai 2018-2030.

BACKGROUND: Health systems aim to provide a range of services to meet the growing demand of Dubai's heathcare system aims to provide a range of services to meet the growing demand of its population health needs and to ensure that standards of easy access, quality, equity and responsiveness are maintained. Dubai Health Authority (DHA) uses health services planning tools to assess the health needs of its population and sets priorities and effective regulatory strategies to achieve equilibrium of supply and demand of healthcare services and ensure adequate healthcare services are available, in terms of both quality and quantity. This study aims to measure the gap between demand and supply in health care services in Dubai at the baseline and to forecast the gap size and type (according to medical specialty, key medical planning units and geographical area) till 2030. The specific consequential aim includes identification of appropriate strategic directions for regulation, licensing, policies, insurance. METHODOLOGY: The supply of healthcare services, professionals and medical equipment is captured through a census of all healthcare facilities licensed for practice in the Emirate of Dubai. The demand is estimated using a need based approach, where demand for episodes of medical care are estimated by age and gender and aligned to the internationally defined diagnosis related groups (IR-DGRs). The estimated episodes are then forecasted into the future, until 2030, using three scenarios of population growth (high, medium and low) for the emirate of Dubai. The captured supply and forecasted demand has been categorized into eight key health-planning units (KPUs) to allow for understanding of the population healthcare service needs by main service categories. Using a software for health services planning, a gap analysis between supply and demand is conducted till year 2030. RESULTS: The results revealed a current and expected undersupply and oversupply for some healthcare services by medical specialty and geographical area of the Emirate. By 2030, the largest gaps exists in acute beds, which would require 1,590 additional beds, for acute-same day beds, an additional 1575 beds, for outpatient consultation rooms, an additional 2,160 consultation rooms, for emergency department, an additional 107 emergency bays, and for long-term care and rehabilitation beds, an additional 675 beds. The top specialty needs for these categories include cardiology, orthopedics, rheumatology, psychiatry, pediatric medicine & surgery, gastroenterology, hematology & oncology, renal medicine, primary care, respiratory medicine, endocrinology, rehabilitation and long-term care. CONCLUSIONS: There is an existing and growing requirement to support the healthcare services capacity needs for the top service lines and geographical areas with the largest gaps. Future licensing is required to ensure that new facilities are geographically distributed in a balanced way, and requests for licensing that create or augment oversupply should be avoided.

Association of estimated sleep duration and naps with mortality and cardiovascular events: a study of 116 632 people from 21 countries.

AIMS: To investigate the association of estimated total daily sleep duration and daytime nap duration with deaths and major cardiovascular events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated the durations of total daily sleep and daytime naps based on the amount of time in bed and self-reported napping time and examined the associations between them and the composite outcome of deaths and major cardiovascular events in 116 632 participants from seven regions. After a median follow-up of 7.8 years, we recorded 4381 deaths and 4365 major cardiovascular events. It showed both shorter (≤6 h/day) and longer (>8 h/day) estimated total sleep durations were associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome when adjusted for age and sex. After adjustment for demographic characteristics, lifestyle behaviours and health status, a J-shaped association was observed. Compared with sleeping 6-8 h/day, those who slept ≤6 h/day had a non-significant trend for increased risk of the composite outcome [hazard ratio (HR), 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.20]. As estimated sleep duration increased, we also noticed a significant trend for a greater risk of the composite outcome [HR of 1.05 (0.99-1.12), 1.17 (1.09-1.25), and 1.41 (1.30-1.53) for 8-9 h/day, 9-10 h/day, and >10 h/day, Ptrend < 0.0001, respectively]. The results were similar for each of all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events. Daytime nap duration was associated with an increased risk of the composite events in those with over 6 h of nocturnal sleep duration, but not in shorter nocturnal sleepers (≤6 h). CONCLUSION: Estimated total sleep duration of 6-8 h per day is associated with the lowest risk of deaths and major cardiovascular events. Daytime napping is associated with increased risks of major cardiovascular events and deaths in those with >6 h of nighttime sleep but not in those sleeping ≤6 h/night.

Availability and affordability of cardiovascular disease medicines and their effect on use in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: an analysis of the PURE study data.

BACKGROUND: WHO has targeted that medicines to prevent recurrent cardiovascular disease be available in 80% of communities and used by 50% of eligible individuals by 2025. We have previously reported that use of these medicines is very low, but now aim to assess how such low use relates to their lack of availability or poor affordability. METHODS: We analysed information about availability and costs of cardiovascular disease medicines (aspirin, ß blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and statins) in pharmacies gathered from 596 communities in 18 countries participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Medicines were considered available if present at the pharmacy when surveyed, and affordable if their combined cost was less than 20% of household capacity-to-pay. We compared results from high-income, upper middle-income, lower middle-income, and low-income countries. Data from India were presented separately given its large, generic pharmaceutical industry. FINDINGS: Communities were recruited between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2013. All four cardiovascular disease medicines were available in 61 (95%) of 64 urban and 27 (90%) of 30 rural communities in high-income countries, 53 (80%) of 66 urban and 43 (73%) of 59 rural communities in upper middle-income countries, 69 (62%) of 111 urban and 42 (37%) of 114 rural communities in lower middle-income countries, eight (25%) of 32 urban and one (3%) of 30 rural communities in low-income countries (excluding India), and 34 (89%) of 38 urban and 42 (81%) of 52 rural communities in India. The four cardiovascular disease medicines were potentially unaffordable for 0·14% of households in high-income countries (14 of 9934 households), 25% of upper middle-income countries (6299 of 24,776), 33% of lower middle-income countries (13,253 of 40,023), 60% of low-income countries (excluding India; 1976 of 3312), and 59% households in India (9939 of 16,874). In low-income and middle-income countries, patients with previous cardiovascular disease were less likely to use all four medicines if fewer than four were available (odds ratio [OR] 0·16, 95% CI 0·04-0·57). In communities in which all four medicines were available, patients were less likely to use medicines if the household potentially could not afford them (0·16, 0·04-0·55). INTERPRETATION: Secondary prevention medicines are unavailable and unaffordable for a large proportion of communities and households in upper middle-income, lower middle-income, and low-income countries, which have very low use of these medicines. Improvements to the availability and affordability of key medicines is likely to enhance their use and help towards achieving WHO's targets of 50% use of key medicines by 2025. FUNDING: Population Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, AstraZeneca (Canada), Sanofi-Aventis (France and Canada), Boehringer Ingelheim (Germany and Canada), Servier, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, King Pharma, and national or local organisations in participating countries.

Recommendation for a Pilot MCDA Tool to Support the Value-Based Purchasing of Generic Medicines in the UAE.

Introduction: In recent periods the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has strengthened economic measures in its pharmaceutical policy by promoting local manufacturing and facilitating the use of generic medicines. International examples indicate the importance of quality control elements in the implementation of cost containment policies. Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used in health care to facilitate health care decision based on multiple objectives. Our objective was to develop a pilot MCDA tool for repeated use to support the value-based purchasing of generic medicines in the UAE. Methods: An international evidence framework was adapted to UAE in a multistakeholder workshop organized by Dubai Health Authority. After validating the relevance of nine criteria in the local jurisdiction, participants decided the ranking and weight of each criterion by anonymous voting. Results: The top four criteria focused on quality elements starting with real-world clinical or economic outcomes (with 19.8% weight), followed by the quality assurance of manufacturing (17.3%), then evidence on the equivalence with the original product (14.8%), and drug formulation and stability (12.3%). The pharmaceutical acquisition cost criteria ranked fifth with 9.4% weight. The bottom four criteria, including reliability of drug supply, macroeconomic benefit, pharmacovigilance and added value services related to the product had similar weights in the range of 5.5-7.7%. Conclusion: Policy-makers in Dubai put high emphasis of value-based health care by incentivizing manufacturers of off-patent pharmaceuticals to generate additional scientific evidence compared to the mandatory minimum and acknowledging efforts to improve quality standards. The MCDA tool is considered suitable to improve the transparency and consistency of decision making in UAE for off-patent pharmaceuticals, and subsequently for other health technologies.

Primary Care 2030: Creating an Enabling Ecosystem for Disruptive Primary Care Models to Achieve Universal Health Coverage in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Background: Forty years after Alma Ata, there is renewed commitment to strengthen primary health care as a foundation for achieving universal health coverage, but there is limited consensus on how to build strong primary health care systems to achieve these goals. Methods: We convened a diverse group of global stakeholders for a high-level dialogue on how to create an enabling ecosystem for disruptive primary care innovation. We focused our discussion on four themes: workforce innovation and strengthening; impactful use of data and technology; private sector engagement; and innovative financing mechanisms. Findings: Here, we present a summary of our convening's proceedings, with specific recommendations for strengthening primary health care systems within each of these four domains. Conclusions: In the wake of the Astana Declaration, there is global consensus that high-quality primary health care must be the foundation for universal health coverage. Significant disruptive innovation will be required to realize this goal. We offer our recommendations to the global community to catalyze further discourse and inform policy-making and program development on the path to Health for All by 2030.

Vertebral Fractures among Patients Referred for Bone Densitometry Screening in Dubai Primary Health Care Facilities.

Vertebral fractures are one of the most common fractures associated with low bone mineral density. However two-thirds to three-fourths of patients with vertebral fractures are not clinically recognized. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of vertebral fractures in patients referred for bone densitometry and the most common site of fracture. The study was carried out in the osteoporosis clinic in Dubai primary health care center. A total of 120 patients were examined using the dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Of all the patients, 48.3% were osteoporotic and 40.9% were osteopenic. The overall prevalence of vertebral fracture was 14.2%. The result showed that the prevalence of vertebral fracture was higher in female compared to male (15.7% and 9.7%, respectively). It was found that patients aged 80 and above had the highest prevalence of vertebral fracture (54.5%). Undiagnosed vertebral fractures were common. Therefore, it is crucial to prevent vertebral fracture through early diagnosis and appropriate treatment of osteoporosis.

Inequalities in the use of secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status: evidence from the PURE observational study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on the use of secondary prevention medicines for cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic groups in countries at different levels of economic development. METHODS: We assessed use of antiplatelet, cholesterol, and blood-pressure-lowering drugs in 8492 individuals with self-reported cardiovascular disease from 21 countries enrolled in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Defining one or more drugs as a minimal level of secondary prevention, wealth-related inequality was measured using the Wagstaff concentration index, scaled from -1 (pro-poor) to 1 (pro-rich), standardised by age and sex. Correlations between inequalities and national health-related indicators were estimated. FINDINGS: The proportion of patients with cardiovascular disease on three medications ranged from 0% in South Africa (95% CI 0-1·7), Tanzania (0-3·6), and Zimbabwe (0-5·1), to 49·3% in Canada (44·4-54·3). Proportions receiving at least one drug varied from 2·0% (95% CI 0·5-6·9) in Tanzania to 91·4% (86·6-94·6) in Sweden. There was significant (p<0·05) pro-rich inequality in Saudi Arabia, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe. Pro-poor distributions were observed in Sweden, Brazil, Chile, Poland, and the occupied Palestinian territory. The strongest predictors of inequality were public expenditure on health and overall use of secondary prevention medicines. INTERPRETATION: Use of medication for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease is alarmingly low. In many countries with the lowest use, pro-rich inequality is greatest. Policies associated with an equal or pro-poor distribution include free medications and community health programmes to support adherence to medications. FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

The Prevalence and the Determinants of Musculoskeletal Diseases in Emiratis Attending Primary Health Care Clinics in Dubai.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of rheumatic diseases in the Emiratis attending primary health care (PHC) clinics in Dubai. The secondary objective was to study the relationship between age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) and rheumatic diseases in the general population. . METHODS: The Prevalence of Rheumatic Diseases and Osteoporosis (PRO) in Dubai study was a cross-sectional study, which randomly enrolled Emiratis' aged between 18-85 years old who attended one of 13 PHC clinics between 2 January 2009 and 31 December 2009. Demographic and health data for all participants was obtained via a questionnaire. Participants that indicated positive answers had their responses validated by a rheumatologist and underwent a thorough locomotor examination. . RESULTS: The study included 3,985 participants with a mean age of 42.1±15.8 years. The majority (77.4%) were female. Lower back pain was the most prevalent problem in our study population (32.9%). Knee osteoarthritis (OA) was the most common form of arthritis seen in our cohort (25.8%). Overall, the prevalence of inflammatory arthritis was 3.1%. Age and BMI were associated with increased risk of knee OA and lower back pain. . CONCLUSIONS: Rheumatic diseases are quite common in Emirati patients attending PHC clinics. Lower back pain and knee OA were the most common musculoskeletal diseases seen in our cohort. There is a need for more population-based studies in the Middle East to have a better understanding of the epidemiology of rheumatic diseases in this region.