RESUMO
Ballon d'Or is the most important individual award in football, and is a significant measure of excellence. From our knowledge, this is the first study that explored the relative age effect (RAE) throughout the history of the Ballon d'Or. A total of 1899 football players nominated for the award from the first edition in 1956 to the most recent edition (2023) were analyzed. To assess the RAE, the birthdate distributions were categorized into four trimesters. The comparison involved correcting for the uniform distribution using chi-square analysis, with Cramer's V serving as a measure of effect size. Standardized residuals were computed to identify quarters that exhibited significant deviation from the expected values. Odds Ratio and 95% confidence intervals were used to identify discrepancies between trimesters. The results indicated a pronounced presence of an RAE at the global level. However, the longitudinal analysis revealed variations in the behavior of the RAE over time. In the initial decades, there is an overrepresentation of players born in the last months of the year. Subsequently, there is no discernible RAE. In the most recent decades, there has been a clear resurgence of RAE, with an overrepresentation of players born in the first quarters of the year.
RESUMO
The relative age effect plays an important role in the pursuit of excellence, providing advantage to athletes born at the beginning of the year or near the cut-off date. This phenomenon has been observed in areas such as sports, education or business. Traditionally, the chi-square test has been used to analyze whether there are statistically significant differences in the distribution of births in each of the four quarters of the year. However, this approach is limited, focusing only on the analysis of the response variable, without taking into account the effect of a set of predictive variables. In this paper a new approach is proposed to study the relative age effect with the use of a logistic regression additive model. The new method has been evaluated with a sample of 21,639 players involved in football tournaments organized by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) between 1908 and 2012. New conclusions have been established that the relative age effect exists regarding player age and the year of the competition in male FIFA competitions and its effect is dynamic and complex.
Assuntos
Fatores Etários , Atletas , Análise de Regressão , Futebol , Adolescente , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Razão de Chances , Distribuição de Poisson , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Adulto JovemRESUMO
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