Effects of range and niche position on the population dynamics of a tropical plant.

The center-periphery hypothesis predicts a decline in population performance toward the periphery of a species' range, reflecting an alteration of environmental conditions at range periphery. However, the rare demographic tests of this hypothesis failed to disentangle the role of geography from that of ecological niche and are biased toward temperate regions. We hypothesized that, because species are expected to experience optimal abiotic conditions at their climatic niche center, (1) central populations will have better demographic growth, survival, and fertility than peripheral populations. As a result, (2) central populations are expected to have higher growth rates than peripheral populations. Peripheral populations are expected to decline, thus limiting species range expansion beyond these boundaries. Because peripheral populations are expected to be in harsh environmental conditions, (3) population growth rate will be more sensitive to perturbation of survival-growth rather than fertility in peripheral populations. Finally, we hypothesized that (4) soils properties will drive the variations in population growth rates for narrowly distributed species for which small scale ecological factors could outweigh landscape level drivers. To test these hypotheses, we studied the demography of Thunbergia atacorensis (Acanthaceae), a range-limited herb in West Africa. We collected three years of demographic data to parameterize an integral projection model (IPM) and estimated population level demographic statistics. Demographic vital rates and population growth rates did not change significantly with distance from geographic or climatic center, contrary to predictions. However, populations at the center of the geographic range were demographically more resilient to perturbation than those at the periphery. Soil nitrogen was the main driver of population growth rate variation. The relative influence of survival-growth on population growth rates exceeded that of fertility at the geographic range center while we observed the opposite pattern for climatic niche. Our study highlights the importance of local scale processes in shaping the dynamics and distribution of range-limited species. Our findings also suggest that the distinction between geographic distribution and climatic niche is important for a robust demographic test of the center-periphery hypothesis.

Altitude-mediated soil properties, not geography or climatic distance, explain the distribution of a tropical endemic herb.

Understanding the ecological processes that govern species' range margins is a fundamental question in ecology with practical implications in conservation biology. The center-periphery hypothesis predicts that organisms have higher abundance at the center of their geographic range. However, most tests of this hypothesis often used raster data, assuming that climatic conditions are consistent across one square km. This assumption is not always justified, particularly for mountainous species for which climatic conditions can vary widely across a small spatial scale. Previous studies rarely evenly sample occurrence data across the species' distribution. In this study, we sampled an endemic perennial herb, Thunbergia atacorensis (Acanthanceae), throughout its range in West Africa using 54 plots and collected data on (a)biotic variables, the species density, leaf mass per area, and basal diameter. We built a structural equation model to test the direct and indirect effects of distance from geographic and climatic niche centers, and altitude on Thunbergia density as mediated by abiotic and biotic factors, population demographic structure, and individual size. Contrary to the prediction of the center-periphery hypothesis, we found no significant effect of distance from geographic or climatic niche centers on plant density. This indicates that even the climatic center does not necessarily have optimal ecological conditions. In contrast, plant density varied with altitudinal gradient, but this was mediated by the effect of soil nitrogen and potassium which had positive effect on plant size. Surprisingly, we found no direct or mediating effect of interspecific competition on plant density. Altogether, our results highlight the role of geography, climatic, and ecological mismatch in predicting species distribution. Our study highlights that where altitudinal gradient is strong local-scale heterogeneity in abiotic factors can play important role in shaping species range limits.

Methodological advances for hypothesis-driven ethnobiology.

Ethnobiology as a discipline has evolved increasingly to embrace theory-inspired and hypothesis-driven approaches to study why and how local people choose plants and animals they interact with and use for their livelihood. However, testing complex hypotheses or a network of ethnobiological hypotheses is challenging, particularly for data sets with non-independent observations due to species phylogenetic relatedness or socio-relational links between participants. Further, to account fully for the dynamics of local ecological knowledge, it is important to include the spatially explicit distribution of knowledge, changes in knowledge, and knowledge transmission and use. To promote the use of advanced statistical modelling approaches that address these limitations, we synthesize methodological advances for hypothesis-driven research in ethnobiology while highlighting the need for more figures than tables and more tables than text in ethnobiological literature. We present the ethnobiological motivations for conducting generalized linear mixed-effect modelling, structural equation modelling, phylogenetic generalized least squares, social network analysis, species distribution modelling, and predictive modelling. For each element of the proposed ethnobiologists quantitative toolbox, we present practical applications along with scripts for a widespread implementation. Because these statistical modelling approaches are rarely taught in most ethnobiological programs but are essential for careers in academia or industry, it is critical to promote workshops and short courses focused on these advanced methods. By embracing these quantitative modelling techniques without sacrificing qualitative approaches which provide essential context, ethnobiology will progress further towards an expansive interaction with other disciplines.