Estimating case fatality risk of severe Yellow Fever cases: systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Case fatality risk (CFR), commonly referred to as a case fatality ratio or rate, represents the probability of a disease case being fatal. It is often estimated for various diseases through analysis of surveillance data, case reports, or record examinations. Reported CFR values for Yellow Fever vary, offering wide ranges. Estimates have not been found through systematic literature review, which has been used to estimate CFR of other diseases. This study aims to estimate the case fatality risk of severe Yellow Fever cases through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. METHODS: A search strategy was implemented in PubMed and Ovid Medline in June 2019 and updated in March 2021, seeking reported severe case counts, defined by fever and either jaundice or hemorrhaging, and the number of those that were fatal. The searches yielded 1,133 studies, and title/abstract review followed by full text review produced 14 articles reporting 32 proportions of fatal cases, 26 of which were suitable for meta-analysis. Four studies with one proportion each were added to include clinical case data from the recent outbreak in Brazil. Data were analyzed through an intercept-only logistic meta-regression with random effects for study. Values of the I2 statistic measured heterogeneity across studies. RESULTS: The estimated CFR was 39 % (95 % CI: 31 %, 47 %). Stratifying by continent showed that South America observed a higher CFR than Africa, though fewer studies reported estimates for South America. No difference was seen between studies reporting surveillance data and studies investigating outbreaks, and no difference was seen among different symptom definitions. High heterogeneity was observed across studies. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 39 % of severe Yellow Fever cases are estimated to be fatal. This study provides the first systematic literature review to estimate the CFR of Yellow Fever, which can provide insight into outbreak preparedness and estimating underreporting.

Tickborne disease awareness and protective practices among U.S. Forest Service employees from the upper Midwest, USA.

BACKGROUND: People with occupations that require them to spend time working outdoors in suitable tick habitats are predicted to be at an increased risk for tick-borne diseases (TBDs). However, few studies have assessed the risks of outdoor employees in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey to collect data on exposure to ticks and TBD infections among U.S. Forest Service employees in a high TBD incidence region of northern Wisconsin, and to examine employee knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) regarding TBDs to help guide future education and prevention programs. Chi-square contingency tables, calculations of odds ratios, and logistic regression models were used to identify associations among self-reported employee factors, the proportion of correctly answered knowledge questions, their ranked concern for TBDs, adherence to practicing preventive behaviors, and willingness to pay for protective measures. RESULTS: Ninety-five employees completed the survey. Nearly all respondents (97%) reported recent tick exposure, with 27% reporting encountering 10 or more ticks per week during peak tick season. Employee knowledge of TBD was high (median score: 80% correct). Fifty-nine percent of respondents had high concern for TBDs, and there was high adherence to conducting body checks for ticks (83% reported always doing them), but only moderate use of tick repellents (24% reported always and 60% reported occasionally using). High concern for TBD (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 6.32 [95% confidence intervals, 1.97-20.28]), a history of TBD diagnosis (aOR = 5.88 [1.41-24.55]), and older age (≥ 46 years) (aOR = 3.29 [1.00-10.84]) were positively associated with high practice adherence. Respondents suggested they would be willing to pay for personal protective methods and get a hypothetical vaccine for Lyme disease, but not community-wide efforts to control ticks. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that U.S. Forest Service employees in Wisconsin represent a high risk group for TBD, and despite relatively high TBD knowledge and engagement in tick protection activities, efforts are needed to reduce their risks for tick bites. More generally, our findings suggest that studies to better understand the factors related to the adoption and effectiveness of public health interventions are needed.

A systematic literature review of leptospirosis outbreaks worldwide, 1970-2012.

OBJECTIVE: This review describes the geographic and temporal distribution of, detection methods for, and other epidemiological features of published leptospirosis outbreaks, with the aim of informing efforts to standardize outbreak-reporting practices. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of leptospirosis outbreaks reported in the scientific literature and ProMED during 1970-2012. Predefined criteria were used to identify and classify outbreaks and a standard form was used to extract information. RESULTS: During 1970-2012, we identified 318 outbreaks (average: 7 outbreaks/year; range: 1-19). Most outbreaks were reported in the Latin America and the Caribbean region (36%), followed by Southern Asia (13%), and North America (11%). Most outbreaks were located in tropical and subtropical ecoregions (55%). Quality classification showed that there was clear description of laboratory-confirmed cases in 40% of outbreaks. Among those, the average outbreak size was 82 cases overall (range: 2-2 259) but reached 253 cases in tropical/subtropical ecoregions. Common risk factors included outdoor work activities (25%), exposure to floodwaters (23%), and recreational exposure to water (22%). Epidemiologic investigation was conducted in 80% of outbreaks, mainly as case interviews. Case fatality was 5% overall (range: 0%-60%). CONCLUSIONS: Outbreak reporting increased over the study period with outbreaks covering tropical and non-tropical regions. Outbreaks varied by size, setting, and risk factors; however, data reviewed often had limited information regarding diagnosis and epidemiology. Guidelines are recommended to develop standardized procedures for diagnostic and epidemiological investigations during an outbreak and for reporting.

OBJETIVO: Describir la distribución geográfica y temporal, los métodos de detección y otras características epidemiológicas de los brotes de leptospirosis publicados con el fin de fundamentar los esfuerzos tendientes a estandarizar las prácticas empleadas en la notificación de brotes. MÉTODOS: Se llevó a cabo una revisión sistemática de los brotes de leptospirosis notificados en la bibliografía científica y en ProMED entre 1970 y 2012. Se utilizaron criterios predefinidos para identificar y clasificar los brotes y se empleó un formulario estándar para extraer la información. RESULTADOS: Entre 1970 y 2012 se identificaron 318 brotes (promedio: 7 brotes/año; rango: 1-19), la mayoría de ellos en América Latina y el Caribe (36%), región seguida por Asia meridional (13%) y América del Norte (11%). La mayoría de los brotes se localizaron en ecorregiones tropicales y subtropicales (55%). La clasificación cualitativa reveló que en el 40% de los brotes había una clara descripción de los casos confirmados por laboratorio. Entre ellos, el tamaño promedio del brote fue de 82 casos (rango: 2-2259 casos) pero alcanzó los 253 casos en ecorregiones tropicales o subtropicales. Entre los factores de riesgo frecuentes figuraban las actividades laborales al aire libre (25%), la exposición a agua proveniente de inundaciones (23%) y la exposición a agua con fines recreativos (22%). En el 80% de los brotes se realizaron investigaciones epidemiológicas, principalmente entrevistas de casos. La mortalidad específica de los casos fue del 5% (rango: 0%-60%). CONCLUSIONES: La notificación de brotes aumentó durante el período de estudio, y los brotes abarcaron regiones tropicales y no tropicales. Los brotes fueron diferentes en cuanto a su tamaño, el entorno y los factores de riesgo; sin embargo, los datos examinados con frecuencia incluían una información limitada respecto del diagnóstico y la epidemiología. Se recomiendan directrices para elaborar procedimientos estandarizados para las investigaciones diagnósticas y epidemiológicas durante un brote y para su notificación.

Human Babesiosis, Yucatán State, Mexico, 2015.

In 2015, we detected clinical cases of babesiosis caused by Babesia microti in Yucatán State, Mexico. Cases occurred in 4 children from a small town who became ill during the same month. Diagnosis was confirmed using conventional PCR followed by sequencing of the DNA fragment obtained.

A road map for leptospirosis research and health policies based on country needs in Latin America.

This report summarizes the presentations, discussions and the recommendations coming from the Oswaldo Cruz Institute/FIOCRUZ International Workshop for Leptospirosis Research Based on Country Needs and the 5th Global Leptospirosis Environmental Action Network meeting, which was held in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 10-12 November 2015. The event focused on health policy and worked to develop a road map as a consensus document to help guide decision-making by policymakers, funding bodies, and health care professionals. The direction that leptospirosis research should take in the coming years was emphasized, taking into account the needs of countries of Latin America, as well as experiences from other world regions, as provided by international experts. The operational concepts of "One Health" and translational research underlaid the discussions and the resulting recommendations. Despite the wide geographic distribution of leptospirosis and its impact in terms of incidence, morbidity, and mortality, leptospirosis is not yet considered a "tool-ready" disease for global initiatives. Surveillance programs need new tools and strategies for early detection, prevention, and follow-up. The major recommendations developed at the Rio meeting cover both health policy and research. The health policy recommendations should be taken into account by decisionmakers, government officials, and the Pan American Health Organization. The priorities for research, technological development, and innovation should be considered by research institutions, universities, and stakeholders.

Seroepidemiology of leptospirosis in dogs from rural and slum communities of Los Rios Region, Chile.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease of global importance and often neglected as a public health problem due to lack of awareness, under-diagnosis and under-reporting. Animals serve as a source of transmission through the shedding of Leptospira in their urine. Because of their proximity to humans, dogs may play a role in human infections. In order to assess and mitigate leptospirosis in dogs and the risk of transmission to humans it is important to understand the epidemiology of leptospirosis under natural conditions. This study aimed to characterize leptospirosis in owned dogs from three distinct community types. Blood, dog and household data were collected from 265 dogs in 190 households from 12 communities representing farms, rural villages, and urban slums in the Los Rios region, Chile. Serologic profiles with a 20-serovar microagglutination test panel were obtained. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations between spatial, ecological, socio-economic variables and overall seropositivity as well as seropositivity to serogroup Canicola. RESULTS: Results from 247 dogs with no history of vaccination were used. Overall seroprevalence was 25.1% (62/247) with significant differences by community type: 10.9% (9/82) in dogs from farms, 22.3% (21/94) from rural villages, and 45.1% (32/71) from urban slums (p <0.001). This trend by community type was also observed for dogs with evidence of seropositivity to the Canicola serogroup. Factors associated with seropositive dogs included dog density and precipitation two-weeks prior to sampling. Presence of Leptospira positive puddles collected from the peri-domestic household environment was also associated with increased seropositivity. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that leptospirosis is actively maintained in the dog population in this study region with notably distinct patterns by community type. Dog populations from rural villages, and urban slums in particular, showed evidence of high levels of transmission probably as a result of the combined effects of dog living conditions as well as community-level ecological and environmental factors.

Isolation of Leptospira interrogans serovar Hardjoprajitno from a calf with clinical leptospirosis in Chile.

BACKGROUND: Although Leptospira isolation has been reported in Chilean cattle, only serological evidence of serovar Hardjo bovis infection has been routinely reported. The present report provides characterization of the pathological presentation and etiology of a clinical case of leptospirosis in a calf from the Los Rios Region in Chile. CASE PRESENTATION: In a dairy herd in southern Chile, 11 of 130 calves died after presenting signs such as depression and red-tinged urine. One of these calves, a female of eight months, was necropsied, and all the pathological findings were consistent with Leptospira infection. A urine sample was submitted to conventional bacteriological analysis together with highly specific molecular biology typing tools, in order to unravel the specific Leptospira specie and serovar associated with this clinical case. A significant finding of this study was that the obtained isolate was confirmed by PCR as L. interrogans, its VNTR profile properly matching with L. interrogans Hardjoprajitno as well as its specific genomic identity revealed by secY gen. CONCLUSION: Leptospira interrogans serovar Hardjoprajitno was associated with the investigated calf clinical case. This information adds to the value of serologic results commonly reported, which encourage vaccination improvements to match circulating strains. In addition, this finding represents the first case report of this serovar in Chilean cattle.

Protective practices against zoonotic infections among rural and slum communities from South Central Chile.

BACKGROUND: Despite well-recognized recommendations to reduce human exposure to zoonotic pathogens, the use of personal and herd-level protective practices is inconsistent in communities where human interactions with animals are common. This study assessed household-level participation in rodent- (extermination, proper food storage, trash disposal), occupational- (preventive veterinary care, boot-wearing, glove-wearing), and garden-associated (restricting animal access, boot-wearing, glove-wearing) protective practices in farms, villages, and slums in the Los Rios region, Chile, where zoonotic pathogens are endemic. METHODS: Questionnaires administered at 422 households across 12 communities recorded household-level socio-demographic characteristics and participation in nine protective practices. Household inclusion in the analysis of occupational practices required having livestock and a household member with occupational exposure to livestock (n = 127), and inclusion in analysis of garden practices required having a garden and at least one animal (n = 233). The proportion of households participating in each protective practice was compared across community types through chi-square analyses. Mixed effects logistic regression assessed household-level associations between socio-demographic characteristics and participation in each protective practice. RESULTS: Most households (95.3 %) reported participation in rodent control, and a positive association between the number of rodent signs in a household and rodent extermination was observed (OR: 1.75, 95 % CI: 1.41, 2.16). Occupational protective practices were reported in 61.8 % of eligible households; household size (OR: 1.63, 95 % CI: 1.17, 5.84) and having children (OR: 0.22, 95 % CI: 0.06, 0.78) were associated with preventive veterinary care. Among eligible households, 73.8 % engaged in protective practices when gardening, and species diversity was positively associated with wearing boots (OR: 1.27, 95 % CI: 1.03, 1.56). Household-level participation in all three protective practices within any exposure category was limited (<10.4 %) and participation in any individual protective practice varied considerably within and across community types. CONCLUSIONS: The levels of participation in protective practices reported in this study are consistent with descriptions in the literature of imperfect use of methods that reduce human exposure to zoonotic pathogens. The wide differences across communities in the proportion of households participating in protective practices against human exposure to zoonotic pathogens, suggests that future research should identify community-level characteristics that influence household participation in such practices.

Identifying the Drivers Related to Animal Reservoirs, Environment, and Socio-Demography of Human Leptospirosis in Different Community Types of Southern Chile: An Application of Machine Learning Algorithm in One Health Perspective.

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis with global public health impact, particularly in poor socio-economic settings in tropical regions. Transmitted through urine-contaminated water or soil from rodents, dogs, and livestock, leptospirosis causes over a million clinical cases annually. Risk factors include outdoor activities, livestock production, and substandard housing that foster high densities of animal reservoirs. This One Health study in southern Chile examined Leptospira serological evidence of exposure in people from urban slums, semi-rural settings, and farm settings, using the Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm to identify key influencing factors. In urban slums, age, shrub terrain, distance to Leptospira-positive households, and neighborhood housing density were contributing factors. Human exposure in semi-rural communities was linked to environmental factors (trees, shrubs, and lower vegetation terrain) and animal variables (Leptospira-positive dogs and rodents and proximity to Leptospira-positive households). On farms, dog counts, animal Leptospira prevalence, and proximity to Leptospira-contaminated water samples were significant drivers. The study underscores that disease dynamics vary across landscapes, with distinct drivers in each community setting. This case study demonstrates how the integration of machine learning with comprehensive cross-sectional epidemiological and geospatial data provides valuable insights into leptospirosis eco-epidemiology. These insights are crucial for informing targeted public health strategies and generating hypotheses for future research.

Clinical presentation of human leptospirosis in febrile patients: Urabá, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is responsible for various clinical syndromes, classically linked with fever and acute kidney injury. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A prospective multicenter observational study was conducted in six health institutions in the region of Urabá, Colombia. Enrollment was based on leptospirosis-compatible clinical syndrome and a positive preliminary serological test, with PCR used to confirm the disease. Clinical data were collected using a standard questionnaire at enrollment, complemented with a review of clinical records. A total of 100 patients were enrolled, 37% (95% CI 27.0-46.9%) had a positive PCR result confirming acute leptospirosis. The most frequent symptoms in patients with a positive PCR test were headache (91.9%; 34/37), chills and sweating (80.6%; 29/37), nausea (75%; 27/37), dizziness (74.3%; 26/37), vomiting (61.1%; 22/37), congestion (56.8%; 21/37), and conjunctival suffusion (51.4%; 19/37). The frequency of clinical signs classically described in leptospirosis was low: jaundice (8.3%; 3/36) and anuria/oliguria (21.6%; 8/37). An increased neutrophile percentage was reported in 60.6% (20/33) of patients. The presence of complications was 21.6% (8/37), with pulmonary complications being the most frequent (75.0% 6/8). One confirmed case died resulting in a fatality of 2.7% (95% CI 0.5-13.8). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Leptospirosis should be considered within the differential diagnoses of an undifferentiated acute febrile syndrome. Leptospirosis presents diagnostic challenges due to limitations in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis thus it is important to improve understanding of disease presentation and identify signs and symptoms that might help differentiate it from other causes of febrile illness.

A sero-survey of toxoplasmosis in farm and non-farm children from Wisconsin, United States, 1997-1999.

BACKGROUND: Toxoplasmosis is among the most widespread and prevalent zoonosis in the world. People can become infected through ingestion of oocysts shed by felids or of tissue cysts contained in meat from infected animals. Acute infection can result in a wide spectrum of consequences, including flu-like illness and retinitis, as well as congenital infection in pregnant women. Severe disease can occur, especially if people are immunocompromised. Frequency of human infection varies substantially by region due to ecological, social, and cultural factors. The most recent nationwide prevalence estimates in children from United States were 3.6% in 6-11 year olds and 5.8% in 12-19 year olds. Because of the limited knowledge of the occurrence of common zoonotic pathogens in children in the United States, the objective of this study was to estimate the sero-prevalence of T. gondii-specific antibodies in children from the Marshfield area in Wisconsin and to examine the association between sero-positivity and farm living. METHODS: Banked sera from 342 Wisconsin children collected in 1997-1999, aged 2 to 18 years, were tested for Toxoplasma gondii-specific IgG antibodies using ELISA. Recorded information included age, sex, and whether the child resided on a farm. Impact of assay accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, on sero-prevalence was examined using Bayesian methods. RESULTS: Observed prevalence of T. gondii-specific antibodies was 10.8% (37/347). Adjusting for sensitivity and specificity of the assays yielded a prevalence estimate of 8.0% (95% probability interval: 4%-12.4%). Children living on a farm had a 5 times higher odds of T. gondii-specific antibodies than children not living on a farm (OR=5.08, 95% CI: 2.2-11.6). CONCLUSION: Results suggest that even in apparently low-risk populations, the true extent of the infection in children is significant. In this study population, children living on farms were differentially exposed, with earlier and higher infection risk than children not living on farms. Findings highlight the need to increase awareness about toxoplasmosis acquired early in life and to improve our understanding of the ecology of T. gondii in rural environments from developed and developing countries.

Kidney Injury Biomarkers in Leptospirosis.

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic infection with a global distribution, though it has a greater impact on marginalized rural agricultural and urban communities in developing countries. Kidney injury, which can lead to severe and lethal infections, is the most frequent complication associated with leptospirosis. Novel biomarkers are being studied as tools for assessing kidney injury in different pathological processes to improve early detection. This review aimed to gather information on the use of novel kidney biomarkers for human leptospirosis. A search of the literature was carried out in September 2021 using the parameters "((kidney) OR (renal) OR (chronic kidney disease) OR (acute kidney injury)) AND ((biomarker) OR (marker)) AND ((Leptospira) OR (leptospirosis))". The review identified 11 original studies that evaluated the performance of 15 kidney biomarkers related to leptospirosis. Assessment of the evidence for biomarker utility was limited because of the small number of studies and sample sizes. Although some biomarkers were associated with kidney disease, no specific biomarker appeared to be ready for clinical practice, and more research in this field is necessary.

Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics.

Yellow Fever (YF), a mosquito-borne disease, requires ongoing surveillance and prevention due to its persistence and ability to cause major epidemics, including one that began in Brazil in 2016. Forecasting based on factors influencing YF risk can improve efficiency in prevention. This study aimed to produce weekly forecasts of YF occurrence and incidence in Brazil using weekly meteorological and ecohydrological conditions. Occurrence was forecast as the probability of observing any cases, and incidence was forecast to represent morbidity if YF occurs. We fit gamma hurdle models, selecting predictors from several meteorological and ecohydrological factors, based on forecast accuracy defined by receiver operator characteristic curves and mean absolute error. We fit separate models for data before and after the start of the 2016 outbreak, forecasting occurrence and incidence for all municipalities of Brazil weekly. Different predictor sets were found to produce most accurate forecasts in each time period, and forecast accuracy was high for both time periods. Temperature, precipitation, and previous YF burden were most influential predictors among models. Minimum, maximum, mean, and range of weekly temperature, precipitation, and humidity contributed to forecasts, with optimal lag times of 2, 6, and 7 weeks depending on time period. Results from this study show the use of environmental predictors in providing regular forecasts of YF burden and producing nationwide forecasts. Weekly forecasts, which can be produced using the forecast model developed in this study, are beneficial for informing immediate preparedness measures.

Epidemiological investigation of norovirus infections in Punjab, Pakistan, through the One Health approach.

Introduction: Norovirus, mainly associated with acute gastroenteritis, is very contagious and can affect a vast range of species ranging from cattle, pigs, dogs, mice, cats, sheep, and lions to humans. It is a foodborne pathogen that mainly transmits through the fecal-oral route. Methods: This is the first-ever study conducted in Lahore and Sheikhupura districts of Punjab, Pakistan, to investigate noroviruses through the One Health approach. From January 2020 to September 2021, 200 fecal samples were collected from clinical cases of hospitalized patients and 200 fecal samples from sick animals at veterinary hospitals and local farms. In addition, 500 food and beverage samples were collected from street vendors and retail stores. A predesigned questionnaire was used to assess the risk factors and clinical characteristics of sick people and animals. Results and discussion: Overall, 14% of the human clinical samples were positive by RT-PCR for genogroup GII. All bovine samples were negative. Food and beverage samples were tested in pools, resulting in sugarcane juice samples positive for genogroup GII. Previous contact with acute gastroenteritis patients, sex, and presence of vomiting were found to be significant risk factors (p ≤ 0.05). The substantial number of diarrhea cases associated with noroviruses calls for additional studies to investigate the epidemiology and transmission and to improve surveillance.

Environmental determinants predicting population vulnerability to high yellow fever incidence.

Yellow fever (YF) is an endemic mosquito-borne disease in Brazil, though many locations have not observed cases in recent decades. Some locations with low disease burden may resemble locations with higher disease burden through environmental and ecohydrological characteristics, which are known to impact YF burden, motivating increased or continued prevention measures such as vaccination, mosquito control or surveillance. This study aimed to use environmental characteristics to estimate vulnerability to observing high YF burden among all Brazilian municipalities. Vulnerability was defined in three categories based on yearly incidence between 2000 and 2017: minimal, low and high vulnerability. A cumulative logit model was fit to these categories using environmental and ecohydrological predictors, selecting those that provided the most accurate model fit. Per cent of days with precipitation, mean temperature, biome, population density, elevation, vegetation and nearby disease occurrence were included in best-fitting models. Model results were applied to estimate vulnerability nationwide. Municipalities with highest probability of observing high vulnerability was found in the North and Central-West (2000-2016) as well as the Southeast (2017) regions. Results of this study serve to identify specific locations to prioritize new or ongoing surveillance and prevention of YF based on underlying ecohydrological conditions.

Investigating Leptospira dynamics in a multi-host community using an agent-based modelling approach.

Leptospirosis, a neglected bacterial zoonosis, is a global public health issue disproportionately affecting impoverished communities such as urban slums in the developing world. A variety of animal species, including peridomestic rodents and dogs, can be infected with different strains of leptospirosis. Humans contract leptospirosis via exposure to water or soil contaminated with the urine of infected animals. Due to the unavailability of safe and effective vaccines, preventive strategies mainly focus on minimizing human exposure to contaminated environment. In marginalized communities, this approach is ineffective due to infrastructure deficiencies and the difficulties in implementing sanitation and hygiene practices. Moreover, continuing the expansion of urban slums worldwide will likely contribute to the increase in outbreaks of leptospirosis. Effective prevention of leptospirosis outbreaks will therefore require a thorough understanding of Leptospira transmission dynamics in impoverished, high-density settings. We developed the agent-based model MHMSLeptoDy to investigate Leptospira dynamics in a realistic, in silico high-density community of rodents, dogs and human hosts, and two host-adapted Leptospira strains. Virtual explorations using MHMSLeptoDy were undertaken to evaluate alternate interventions and to assess the zoonotic transmission risk of leptospirosis. A key finding from model explorations is that rodents are the main contributors of rodent-adapted as well as dog-adapted strains in the environment, whereas dogs play an important role in distributing the rodent-adapted strain. Alternate leptospirosis control strategies can be evaluated using the open-source, customizable agent-based model, MHMSLeptoDy. This modelling approach provides a sophisticated mechanism to quantitatively evaluate nuanced intervention strategies and inform the design of rational, locally relevant leptospirosis control programmes.

Pooled-sample testing for detection of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae during late experimental infection as a diagnostic tool for a herd eradication program.

Early and accurate detection of Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae infection in live pigs is a critical component to measure the success of disease eradication strategies. However, the imperfect sensitivity of in vivo diagnostic tools, change in sensitivity over the course of infection, and expected low prevalence level at the end of an eradication program create a challenging diagnostic scenario. Here, the individual and pool sensitivities for detection of M. hyopneumoniae during the chronic phase of infection was determined using deep tracheal catheter samples, the in vivo sample type with the highest reported diagnostic sensitivity. Fifty samples from known infected pigs collected at 113 days post-M. hyopneumoniae intra-tracheal inoculation, were diluted in known negative samples to form pools of 1:3 and 1:5. Samples were tested for M. hyopneumoniae by a species-specific PCR. Ninety-eight percent (49/50) of individual samples, 84 % (42/50) of pools of 1:3, and 82 % (41/50) of 1:5 were detected positive for M. hyopneumoniae. To apply the sensitivity estimates for detection of M. hyopneumoniae in a low prevalence scenario, sample sizes with associated sample collection costs were calculated for individual and pooled testing using algorithms within the program EpiTools One-Stage Freedom Analyses. Assumptions included a ≥95 % population sensitivity, infinite population size, prevalence levels of ≥0.5 %, ≥1 %, ≥2 %, ≥3 %, ≥4 %, or ≥5 %, 100 % specificity, along with the mean and lower confidence limit of the individual or pool sensitivity for each pool size, when appropriate. For instance, following completion of a herd eradication program, if a low risk approach is targeted, sample size estimates for ≥2 % prevalence using the lower limit of the diagnostic or pool sensitivity 95 %CI may be followed. If samples were to be tested individually, 167 individuals would be sampled at a cost of 6,012 USD. If pooled by 3, 213 would be sampled (testing cost 3,266 USD), and for pools of 5, 220 individuals would be sampled (testing cost 2,464 USD). Population sensitivity was also calculated for a range of testing scenarios. Our study indicated that pooling samples by 3 or 5 was a cost-effective method for M. hyopneumoniae detection in low prevalence scenarios. Cost-effective detection was evidenced despite the increased sample collection costs associated with large sample sizes in order to offset decreased testing sensitivity attributable to pooling. The post-eradication sample collection scheme, combined with pooling, suggested lower cost options than individual sampling for testing to be applied at the end of an eradication program, without significantly compromising the likelihood of detection.

Toxoplasma gondii oocyst-specific antibodies and source of infection.

Infection source can determine cost-effective public health interventions. To quantify risk of acquiring Toxoplasma gondii from environmental sources versus from meat, we examined serum from pregnant women in Chile. Because 43% had oocyst-specific antibodies, we conclude that contaminated meat remains the primary source of infection but that environmental sources also pose substantial risk.

Stability of Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus at ambient temperatures.

The stability of Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) was evaluated for temperatures appropriate to laboratory and field settings. Four North American (type 2) isolates (ATCC VR-2332, JA-142, MN-184, and Ingelvac(R) PRRS ATP vaccine virus) in cell culture medium (pH 7.5) were held at 1 of 4 temperatures (4, 10, 20, and 30 degrees C) and sampled over time. Samples were tested for infectious virus and total PRRSV RNA using median tissue culture infectious dose and quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, respectively. The rate of loss of infectious virus was expressed in terms of the time required for virus concentration to decline by one half (i.e., half-life [T(1/2)]). Statistical analysis found that temperature, but not virus isolate, had a significant effect on T(1/2), and a single nonlinear regression model was derived to predict T(1/2) for temperatures between 0 and 50 degrees C: T(1/2) = 243.54 e((-0.109*TEMP)). In contrast to changes over time in the concentration of infectious virus, no change in the concentration of quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-detectable PRRSV was detected at any temperature and contact time. This information will be of interest to persons working in laboratory or field situations in which the control of PRRSV is important.

When and what to test for: A cost-effectiveness analysis of febrile illness test-and-treat strategies in the era of responsible antibiotic use.

BACKGROUND: Febrile illness caused by viral and bacterial diseases (e.g., dengue and leptospirosis) often have similar symptoms and are difficult to differentiate without diagnostic tests. If not treated appropriately, patients may experience serious complications. The question of what diagnostic tests to make available to providers in order to inform antibiotic therapy remains an open problem for health services facing limited resources. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We formulated the problem of minimizing the weighted average of antibiotic underuse and overuse to inform the optimal diagnostic test and antibiotic treatment options for given occurrence probabilities of several bacterial and viral infections. We modeled the weight of antibiotic overuse as a monetary penalty per unnecessarily administered course, which we varied in both the base case and sensitivity analysis. Detailed Markov cohort models of febrile illness progression were used to estimate the weight of antibiotic underuse. The model accounted for multiple infections simultaneously and incorporated test, treatment, and other direct and indirect costs, as well as the effect of delays in seeking care and test turnaround times. We used the Markov models to numerically estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), pre-penalty costs, and likelihood of antibiotics overuse per patient for fifteen different strategies in two example settings in Thailand, one with a higher probability of bacterial infections (Northern Thailand, Scenario A) and one with a higher probability of viral infections (Bangkok, Scenario B). We found that empirical antibiotic treatment to all patients always incurs the lowest pre-penalty cost (Scenario A: $47.5/patient, $100.6/patient, $149.5/patient for patients seeking care on day one, day four, and day ten respectively; Scenario B: $94.1/patient, $108.7/patient, $122.1/patient on day one, day four, and day ten respectively), and the lowest DALYs, (Scenario A: 0.2 DALYs/patient, 0.9 DALYs/patient, 1.7 DALYs/patient on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively; Scenario B: 0.5 DALYs/patient, 0.7 DALYs/patient, 0.9 DALYs/patient on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively). However, such strategy resulted in the highest proportion of antibiotic overuse per patient (Scenario A: 38.1%, 19.3%, 7.5% on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively; Scenario B: 82.9%, 42.1%, 16.3% on day one, day four, and day ten, respectively). Consequently, empirical antibiotic treatment became suboptimal with antibiotic overuse penalties above $12,800/course, $18,400/course, $23,900/course for patients presenting on day one, day four, and day ten in Scenario A and above $1,100/course, $1,500/course, $1,600/course for patients presenting on day one, day four, and day ten in Scenario B. CONCLUSIONS: Empirical antibiotic treatment to all patients provided the best outcomes if antibiotic overuse was not the primary concern or if presenting with viral disease (such as dengue) was unlikely. Empirical antibiotic treatment to severe patients only was in most cases not beneficial. Otherwise, strategies involving diagnostic tests became optimal. In particular, our results indicated that single test strategies (bacterial RDT or viral PCR) were optimal in regions with a greater probability of presenting with viral infection. PCR-led strategies (e.g., parallel bacterial PCR, or multiplex PCR) are robust under parameter uncertainty (e.g., with uncertain disease occurrence probabilities).